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Meso-Analysis Project. Towards a Gridded Integrated Approache for Nowcasting. Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop April 2013. P. Bourgouin, C. Landry , J.-F. Desch ê nes, J. Marcoux, D. Talbot, M. Verville. Meteorological Systems Section Canadian Meteorological Centre - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • P. Bourgouin, C. Landry, J.-F. Deschnes,J. Marcoux, D. Talbot, M. VervilleMeteorological Systems SectionCanadian Meteorological CentreMeteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Qubec, Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology WorkshopApril 2013

  • Overview

    Introduction The contextPrototype descriptionFuture development

  • There is a need for a gridded nowcasting prediction system to support the public, marine and aviation forecast programs.Some of the requirements: real time observations and nowcasting weather elements on a griddeterministic or probabilistic weather elementsoptimum use of all types of observationshigh resolution (temporal, grid)reliable and totally automatedoptimum interpolation techniquesefficient extrapolation techniqueshigh resolution modelweighted variable approach as a function of forecast time

    1. Introduction

  • MSC operates a point based nowcasting system called : Integrated NowCasting System (INCS) INCS supports Scribe the forecast production tool used to prepare Public, Marine & Air Quality forecasts.INCS provides weather elements only for the Public programMSC is currently working on planning the Next Generation Forecast System (Concept of Operation: ConOps) and a gridded weather elements approach is envisionedA Meso-scale Analysis and Nowcasting prototype has been developped by Pierre BourgouinAn event base extrapolation technique is needed to improve two nowcasting statistical modules: TAFTools & PubTools

    2. The context

  • Scribe: Point based Forecast production toolMatrices Generator MODELS& other data sources Concepts Generator MATRICESProducts GeneratorPRODUCTS Weather ElementsNowcastingUpdatedWeather ElementsScribe InterfaceObservations METAR, Radar LightningVery short range Forecast SystemNWP - UMOSNational Production CMC SPC Wx Office + Nowcasting HourlyMATRICESRules

  • Observations from surface stations are converted into analyses using the Kriging interpolation method (50 km grid):Extraction of hourly surface observations over Canada (all), northern US (selection) and western Greenland (selection)Transformation of the different elements (TT, ET, TD, VS, UU, VV, VIT, PN, VE, HB, INT, TYP, CVC, CL, PLF, TOB, OPA, ECI, ZR) into analyses at a 50-km resolution using KrigingConsistency check using a rule-based moduleResulting first-guess meso-scale analysis are done for precipitation types (occurrence), convection and cloud coverThese preliminary analysis are then improve by using data from other sources:Precipitation type analysis is refined using data from radar, satellite, NWP model (Ct et al. 1998).Convection analysis uses the Canadian lightning detector network (Orville et al. 2002) and NWP model.Cloud cover analysis is improved using a mid-level cloud analysis produced using GOES satellite data (Garand 1993).3. Prototype description

  • The sequence in the production of the meso-scale analysis is important:Cloud coverPrecipitation occurrencesPrecipitation types( Convective analysis is independent)The final analysis are extrapolated by a forward scheme using the NWP wind field (50% of 500 hPa or 100% 700 hPa)

  • 1. Cloud cover

    Coast + oceans : AVG [SAT + RDPS + TRIAL + Interpol.]Continent : AVG [SAT + TRIAL + 2*Interpol.]

  • CLOUD COVER ANALYSISKRIGINGRDPS - NTTRIAL: NC ET T+1H

  • 2. Precipitation occurrenceProduce by combining the following information:model data (over ocean & lakes)radars compositeintegrated cloud analysis (sfc obs + sattelite + model)interpolated precipitation occurrence analysis (sfc obs + Kriging)one hour forecast of precipitiation occurrence (trial field)

    A weight is given to each value. If the sommation of the weighted values exceeds a threshold, precipitation are diagnose at this grid point.

  • RDPS - AmountsRADARCloud CoverKRIGGING OCC. TRIAL OCC T+1H PRECIP. OCC. ANALYSIS

  • INITIAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS (COLOR) AND NWP PRECIPITATION (BLUE)

  • FINAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS (COLOR) AND OBSERVATIONS (RED)

  • 3. Precipitation TypeProduced by combining the following information:Interpolated types analysis (Kriging) Final Precipitations occurrences analysis RDPS model type analysisDiagnostics temperatureIf precipitation occurrence is diagnosed at a point, the type associoated will be selected from the first non nil of:Result of the Kriging analysis at that pointNear by analysisModel diagnosticrain if T > 3o C, otherwise snowType = nil

    Types are:No precipLiquidSolidFresing

  • PRECIPITATION TYPES ANALYSISSUMMER CASETemperatures

  • PRECIPITATION TYPES ANALYSISWINTER CASE20060222 1500UTC

  • 4. Convection

    Produced by combining the following information:Interpolation analysis of convection (Kriging)Lightning dataLifted index from RDPS (only for showers)

    Types are:StableCUTCU/ACCCB

  • CONVECTION ANALYSIS (COLOR) AND OBSERVATIONS (BLUE)

  • 5. ExtrapolationExtrapolation module using NWP wind fields to advect precipitation type, convection and cloud cover. Current version uses 50% of 500 hPa RDPS winds.

  • ADVECTION USING 50% OF THE 500hPa WIND FROM A NWP MODELPRECIPITATION TYPE ANALYSIS (BLUE CONT.) AND FORECAST AT T+01H (COLOR)

  • ADVECTION USING 50% OF THE 500hPa WIND FROM A NWP MODEL

    PRECIPITATION TYPE ANALYSIS (BLUE)PRECIPITATION TYPE T+03H (MAGENTA) CONVECTION T+03H (RED Contours)

  • Meso-Scale Analysis Precipitation TypesNowcasting module Precipitation types, Convection & Clouds

  • VerificationThis evaluation was performed over two periods: a warm season April to September and a cold season November to March.The occurrence of precipitations was verified for the values produced by:Meso-Analysis extrapolated (Sampling)00Z and 12Z run RDPS (Sampling)PubTools (Nowcasting statistical forecast system bases on METAR)ScoresRPSS (Ranked Probability Skill Score)HSS (Heidky Skill Score)PC (Percent Correct)

  • Warm Season (April to September) 00 & 12UTCCrossing ~To + 4h

    Graph4

    -0.130.31-0.09

    0.030.23-0.11

    -0.010.11-0.1

    00.06-0.11

    -0.02-0.080.01

    -0.01-0.16-0.16

    RGEM

    EXTRAPOLATION

    PUBTOOLS

    Projection

    RPSS

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - RPSS00UTC 20070401-20070930

    Sheet1

    RPSS

    T+10.30.540.41

    20.280.370.18

    30.280.30.02

    40.270.19-0.04

    50.280.150.03

    60.260.08-0.03

    PC

    85.0690.0587.26

    84.9186.8282.68

    84.5584.8878.93

    84.6182.9477.93

    84.1581.3178.63

    83.6679.6177.3

    HSS

    0.50.70.65

    0.510.60.45

    0.510.550.15

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    0.490.420.06

    Sheet1

    11

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    RPSS

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - RPSS00UTC 20071001-20080331

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    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - HSS00UTC 20071001-20070331

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    PC

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - PC00UTC 20071001-20070331

    Sheet4

    RPSS

    1-0.130.31-0.09

    20.030.23-0.11

    3-0.010.11-0.1

    400.06-0.11

    5-0.02-0.080.01

    6-0.01-0.16-0.16

    PC

    88.6693.0689.02

    89.8791.9788.38

    89.6790.9188.77

    89.3189.9188.08

    89.4588.8389.72

    89.1387.5387.59

    HSS

    0.420.640.5

    0.50.590.36

    0.490.530.15

    0.480.50.12

    0.480.450.1

    0.470.40.03

    Sheet4

    RGEM

    EXTRAPOLATION

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    RPSS

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - RPSS00UTC 20070401-20070930

    Sheet4 (2)

    RGEM

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    HSS

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - HSS00UTC 20070401-20070930

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    PC

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - PC00UTC 20070401-20070930

    RPSS

    10.290.520.36

    20.30.360.15

    30.30.240.01

    40.30.17-0.03

    50.290.090.02

    60.270.01-0.05

    PC

    85.5990.1886.93

    85.8186.9482.58

    85.6584.5379.68

    85.7882.9678.89

    85.2381.2179.71

    85.0879.5978.46

    HSS

    10.50.70.64

    20.530.60.44

    30.530.530.15

    40.540.490.1

    50.520.450.09

    60.520.40.05

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    RGEM

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    RPSS

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - RPSS00UTC 20061001-20070331

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    PC

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - PC00UTC 20061001-20070331

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    HSS

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - HSS00UTC 20061001-20070331

    RPSS

    10.070.410.19

    20.060.250.01

    30.020.150.05

    4-0.120.05-0.02

    5-0.21-0.02-0.03

    6-0.27-0.1-0.03

    PC

    89.8693.5591.25

    89.7291.7689.16

    89.4490.9389.8

    88.3790.0589.4

    87.389.3189.16

    86.6488.3789.14

    HSS

    0.450.670.6

    0.470.580.51

    0.470.530.4

    0.430.480.24

    0.420.450.12

    0.420.420.08

    RGEM

    EXTRAPOLATION

    PUBTOOLS

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    RPSS

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - RPSS12UTC 20070401-20070930

    RGEM

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    HSS

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - HSS12UTC 20070401-20070930

    RGEM

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    PC

    PRSENCE DE PRCIPITATION - PC12UTC 20070401-20070930

    RPSS

    10.250.540.58

    20.