mainstreet - refugee crisis

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,506 Canadians by Smart IVR™ on September 4th-6th, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed.

Margin of error: +/- 1.96%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by language, geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

CANADIANS CLOSELY FOLLOWING REFUGEE CRISIS; PRIORITIZE REFUGEE RESETTLEMENT

September 8, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Canadians closely watching the unfolding Syrian refugee crisis - many (48%) support a dramatic increase in refugee resettlement within Canada. With 2,506 respondents the Mainstreet Research poll conducted for Postmedia has a margin of error of +/- 1.96%, 19/20.

“Canadians are divided on who is responsible for the current crisis with 32% saying ISIS is primarily responsible compared to 31% who hold the current Syrian government led by Bashar Al-Assad responsible,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet. “In recent days we have heard Conservative leader Stephen Harper make the case that it is ISIS that is responsible while the opposition leaders have argued the crisis was brought on by Syria’s civil war. Each of their messages has had some limited success, with almost one in three Canadians not sure.”

When it comes to the Canadian Government response to the crisis, almost 1 in 2 Canadians disapprove of the government’s response (48%). The highest approval comes from Alberta with 48% followed by the Prairies with 42%. Disapproval is highest in Quebec with 53% followed by Atlantic Canada and Ontario at 49%. This suggests approval is correlated with federal voting intention.

Almost half of Canadians want Canada to accept over 30,000 refugees from Syria, significantly more than Canada’s current commitments. Another 13% indicate Canada should accept between 20,000 and 30,000 and 11% said between 10,000 and 20,000 while just 13% indicated less than 10,000 Syrian refugees should be taken in.

When asked what role Canada should play in the continuing crisis, more Canadians want to see e�orts focused on refugee resettlement (31%) than military deployment (18%).

“Canadians clearly want to see more action taken on refugee resettlement,” continued Maggi. “They believe it is the best way Canada can help and almost half of Canadians support resettling over 30,000 refugees. These are significant numbers.”

More Canadians believe that Tom Mulcair would be most e�ective in addressing the refugee crisis, with 26%, followed closely by Justin Trudeau at 24% and Stephen Harper with 21%.

48% believe Canada is not doing its fair share and 39% feel the same about Europe. This may change as media coverage of the European response becomes more positive following policy changes in Hungary that have allowed migrants to reach Austria and Germany.

In the case of the Kurdi family that made international headlines after two children drowned while attempting to escape from Syria, 44% do not believe the Government acted appropriately.

“What the e�ects of the crisis and the case of the Kurdi family will be on the outcome of this election is yet to be seen. What appeared to be a turning point in this campaign last week has been changed as further details emerge. It appears that the Government has managed to avoid the eroding of its support, although perhaps further polarized the opposition and provided further motivation for people to vote before October 19,” finished Maggi.

ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.

Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, [email protected] for Phone Interview: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

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"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

33%

37%

15%

13%

3%

How closely have you been following stories involving Syria’s refugee crisis?

A3

Very Closely Somewhat Closely Not Too Closely Not At All Closely Not Aware

VERY CLOSELYSOMEWHAT CLOSELYNOT TOO CLOSELYNOT AT ALL CLOSELYNOT AWARESAMPLE

18-3430%26%13%28%3%303

35-4931%40%16%9%4%404

50-6432%44%18%5%1%

886

65+40%38%12%7%3%913

Female28%40%15%13%4%

1324

Male38%33%14%13%2%1182

VERY CLOSELYSOMEWHAT CLOSELYNOT TOO CLOSELYNOT AT ALL CLOSELYNOT AWARESAMPLE

AB41%37%12%7%3%346

BC27%35%22%13%2%275

Prairies35%34%19%10%3%303

ON38%36%8%14%5%667

QC25%39%21%14%1%621

Atlantic29%38%18%12%3%294

32%

31%

8%

29%

From everything you have seen, heard or read, who would you say is most responsible for the present refugee crisis in Syria? The Islamic State, also known as ISIS, the Syrian Government Led by Bashar Al-Assad or Someone Else?

A4

ISLAMIC STATESYRIAN GOVERNMENTSOMEONE ELSENOT SURESAMPLE

18-3424%31%7%

38%303

35-4930%34%9%28%404

50-6440%27%9%

24%886

65+34%30%8%28%913

Female30%28%5%37%1324

Male34%33%12%21%1182

ISLAMIC STATESYRIAN GOVERNMENTSOMEONE ELSENOT SURESAMPLE

AB41%33%6%21%346

BC33%29%6%31%275

Prairies32%30%7%

32%303

ON31%29%10%30%667

QC29%32%8%

30%621

Atlantic30%31%9%

30%294

Islamic State Syrian Government Not SureSomeone Else

Do you approve or disapprove of the Canadian Government’s response to the refugee crisis in Syria?

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TOTAL APPROVAL: 35% TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 48% NOT SURE: 17%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE

18-3424%5%19%26%25%303

35-4916%15%15%32%21%404

50-6422%15%22%29%12%886

65+21%23%25%21%9%913

Female17%13%25%27%19%1324

Male25%15%16%29%16%1182

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE

AB32%16%12%23%17%346

BC25%13%23%23%17%275

Prairies29%13%15%27%16%303

ON18%15%21%28%18%667

QC16%12%22%31%18%621

Atlantic21%15%20%29%16%294

35%

48%

17%

13%

11%

13%

48%

15%

Canada has resettled refugees in the past including 37,00 Hungarian refugees in 1956, 7,000 refugees from Uganda in 1972, 65,00 refugees from Vietnam in 1975 and 6,000 refugees from Kosovo in 1999. In your opinion, how many total refugees do you think Canada should resettle from Syria?

A6

10,000 Or Less 10,000-20,000 Not Sure20,000-30,000 30,000 Or More

10,000 OR LESSBETWEEN 10,000 & 20,000BETWEEN 20,000 & 30,000OVER 30,000NOT SURESAMPLE

18-3414%7%15%51%13%303

35-4911%10%11%51%17%404

50-6412%13%13%47%16%886

65+15%14%14%43%14%913

Female12%10%15%44%19%1324

Male13%12%12%52%11%1182

10,000 OR LESSBETWEEN 10,000 & 20,000BETWEEN 20,000 & 30,000OVER 30,000NOT SURESAMPLE

AB15%4%11%57%13%346

BC17%11%11%50%11%275

Prairies18%10%13%45%14%303

ON7%10%11%56%15%667

QC18%15%20%29%18%621

Atlantic10%11%10%55%14%294

18%

27%

31%

9%

15%

And in your opinion how can Canada best contribute to the Syrian Refugee Crisis? Is it, Military Force, Humanitarian Aid, the Resettlement of Refugees in Canada or something else?

A7

Deploy Military Humanitarian Aid Not SureRefugees in Canada Something Else

MILITARY FORCEHUMANITARIAN AIDREFUGEE RESETTLEMENTSOMETHING ELSENOT SURESAMPLE

18-3417%33%32%8%10%303

35-4918%28%26%10%18%404

50-6420%25%30%11%14%886

65+15%22%38%8%17%913

Female12%26%35%10%18%1324

Male24%28%27%9%11%1182

MILITARY FORCEHUMANITARIAN AIDREFUGEE RESETTLEMENTSOMETHING ELSENOT SURESAMPLE

AB26%24%23%9%18%346

BC17%34%29%9%11%275

Prairies21%27%27%11%14%303

ON16%28%32%10%15%667

QC16%25%36%8%15%621

Atlantic18%27%31%10%14%294

And which Federal Leader do you think would be most e�ective in addressing the Syrian Refugee Crisis?

A8

STEPHEN HARPERTOM MULCAIRJUSTIN TRUDEAUELIZABETH MAYGILLES DUCEPPENOT SURESAMPLE

18-3415%27%21%3%1%

34%303

35-4923%25%18%4%2%

26%404

50-6421%25%29%3%3%

20%886

65+27%27%29%2%2%14%913

Female17%27%24%2%2%

29%1324

Male25%26%25%4%2%19%1182

STEPHEN HARPERTOM MULCAIRJUSTIN TRUDEAUELIZABETH MAYGILLES DUCEPPENOT SURESAMPLE

AB47%14%14%2%0%22%346

BC18%30%15%10%0%26%275

Prairies35%18%20%2%0%25%303

ON21%22%29%2%0%25%667

QC11%35%22%1%9%22%621

Atlantic7%

22%43%2%0%26%294

21%

26%

24%

3%

2%

24%

Harper Mulcair Trudeau May Duceppe Not Sure

From everything you have seen, heard or read, is Europe doing its fair share to address the Syrian Refugee Crisis, or not?

A9

Doing Its Fair Share Not Doing Its Fair Share Not Sure

DOING ITS FAIR SHARENOT DOING ITS FAIR SHARENOT SURESAMPLE

18-3415%45%39%303

35-4921%40%38%404

50-6427%38%35%886

65+27%28%45%913

Female18%38%43%1324

Male26%39%35%1182


AB33%33%34%346

BC23%38%39%275

Prairies27%35%38%303

ON20%38%42%667

QC19%42%39%621

Atlantic24%39%37%294

22%

39%

39%

From everything you have seen, heard or read, is Canada doing its fair share to address the Syrian Refugee Crisis, or not?

A10

Doing Its Fair Share Not Doing Its Fair Share Not Sure


18-3425%46%29%303

35-4920%53%28%404

50-6431%46%23%886

65+25%48%27%913

Female20%51%29%1324

Male31%45%24%1182


AB39%36%24%346

BC25%49%25%275


ON25%46%29%667

QC17%57%26%621


25%

48%

27%

In the last week, the news media have reported extensively on a refugee family whose two young boys drowned as their family fled from Turkey to Greece. The family had hoped to come to Canada. Do you think the Canadian government acted appropriately in their case, or not?

A11

Acted Appropriately Did Not Act Appropriately Not Sure

ACTED APPROPRIATELYDID NOT ACT APPROPRIATELYNOT SURESAMPLE

18-3439%39%22%303

35-4922%46%32%404

50-6432%42%26%886

65+23%50%27%913

Female24%44%32%1324

Male35%44%21%1182

ACTED APPROPRIATELYDID NOT ACT APPROPRIATELYNOT SURESAMPLE

AB49%33%18%346

BC30%41%29%275


ON29%43%27%667

QC18%54%28%621


30%

44%

27%


Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party Tom Mulcair of the NDP

Justin Trudeau of the Liberal PartyGilles Duceppe of the Bloc Québécois (Québec Only)

Elizabeth May of the Green Party Not Sure


Yes, Europe is Doing Its Fair ShareNo, Europe is Not Doing Its Fair Share

Not Sure


Yes, Canada is Doing Its Fair ShareNo, Canada is Not Doing Its Fair Share

Not Sure


Yes, The Canadian Government Acted AppropriatelyNo, the Canadian Government Did Not Act Apprropriately

Not Sure


Very CloselySomewhat Closely

Not Too CloselyNot At All Closely

Not Aware of These Stories

From everything you have seen, heard or read, who would you say is most responsible for the present refugee crisis in Syria? The Islamic State, otherwise known as ISIS, the Syrian Government Led by

Bashar Al-Assad or Someone Else?

The Islamic State otherwise known as ISISThe Syrian Government Led by Bashar Al-Assad

Someone ElseNot sure


Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove

Not Sure

Canada has resettled refugees in the past including 37,00 Hungarian refugees in 1956, 7,000 refugees from Uganda in 1972, 65,00 refugees from Vietnam in 1975 and 6,000 refugees from Kosovo in 1999. In

your opinion, how many total refugees do you think Canada should resettle from Syria?

10,000 refugees or lessBetween 10,000 and 20,000 refugeesBetween 20,000 and 30,000 refugees

Over 30,000 refugeesNot sure


Military ForceHumanitarian aid

Resettlement of Refugees in CanadaSomething else

Not sure

SCRIPT

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SCRIPT CONTINUED


Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party Tom Mulcair of the NDP

Justin Trudeau of the Liberal PartyGilles Duceppe of the Bloc Québécois (Québec Only)

Elizabeth May of the Green Party Not Sure


Yes, Europe is Doing Its Fair ShareNo, Europe is Not Doing Its Fair Share

Not Sure


Yes, Canada is Doing Its Fair ShareNo, Canada is Not Doing Its Fair Share

Not Sure


Yes, The Canadian Government Acted AppropriatelyNo, the Canadian Government Did Not Act Apprropriately

Not Sure


Very CloselySomewhat Closely

Not Too CloselyNot At All Closely

Not Aware of These Stories

From everything you have seen, heard or read, who would you say is most responsible for the present refugee crisis in Syria? The Islamic State, otherwise known as ISIS, the Syrian Government Led by

Bashar Al-Assad or Someone Else?

The Islamic State otherwise known as ISISThe Syrian Government Led by Bashar Al-Assad

Someone ElseNot sure


Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove

Not Sure

Canada has resettled refugees in the past including 37,00 Hungarian refugees in 1956, 7,000 refugees from Uganda in 1972, 65,00 refugees from Vietnam in 1975 and 6,000 refugees from Kosovo in 1999. In

your opinion, how many total refugees do you think Canada should resettle from Syria?

10,000 refugees or lessBetween 10,000 and 20,000 refugeesBetween 20,000 and 30,000 refugees

Over 30,000 refugeesNot sure


Military ForceHumanitarian aid

Resettlement of Refugees in CanadaSomething else

Not sure

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© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.

Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.

mainstreet - refugee crisis

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