floating lng 2012€¦ · a new business model ? • “insanity = doing the same thing over and...
TRANSCRIPT
Where Are The FLNG Opportunities ? How to Accelerate Them ?
• What are the Gas Supply Challenges ?• How could domestic demand for gas & power be integrated into an FLNG project ?
FLNG 2012London, 12 June 2012
Claudio H. SteuerPrincipal
SyEnergy [email protected]
Floating LNG 2012
Legal Disclaimer
SyEnergy Limited accepts no liability whatsoever and does not make or offer any representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, for any information, projections and opinions contained in this presentation.
SyEnergy Limited does not undertake any obligation to provide the recipient with access to any additional information or to update or correct any unintended inaccuracies in or omissions from this presentation. This presentation shall not be deemed to be an offer to sell or invitation to invest in SyEnergy Limited or any of its assets and no information set out in this presentation is intended to form the basis of any contract, investment decision or any decision to purchase or invest in any such assets.
The information contained herein is disclosed purely for information purposes only and recipients should rely solely on their own judgement, review and analysis in evaluating the information set out herein.
The recipient is authorized to use the information contained in this presentation in part or whole, on the condition to preserve the content as disclosed herein, and providing the appropriate accreditation of the source.
A brief word about SyEnergy…
• Energy consultancy focused on strategy, business development and commercial issues
• 25+ years of experience with Shell, ENI, Snamprogetti, Centrica, and Gas Strategies Group
• Advised clients on energy projects located in West, East & North Africa, South America, USA, Europe, Caspian, Indonesia and Australia.
• Upstream and midstream gas/LNG business development and commercialisation
• Gas supply planning, infrastructure development, domestic and export gas market studies
• Project contracts, sales & purchase agreements, price reviews, and dispute resolution
• Advice and implementation support focused on long term sustainable value creation
• Independent project assurance reviews and commercial due diligence
• Provision of bespoke energy training
3
Where are the FLNG opportunities ?
4
Deepwater fields where subsea pipelines are expensive, technically and/or politically complex
??
??
??
??
FLNG is not resource constrained
5
FLNG project complexity is not a function of size… most often it is proportional to the lack of alignment between all stakeholders
Source: EIA / IEO 2011, WoodMac, ENI World Oil & Gas Review 2010-11
Brazil pre-salt, a new frontier…. new challenges
6Source: ANP, HRT, Petrobras
• Total area of 149,000 Km2 (~300-350km off the coast)• Only 2% of Brazilian sedimentary area• Only 28% of the area under concession• ~50 Billion Boe potential… ~40 Tcf natural gas
• ~7,000m of saltwater, sand, salt layer & rock• Well engineering (salt layer, ~granite hardness, 1,000
psi, High CO2, water/gas injection)• Flow assurance (near freezing temperatures, paraffin deposition, hydrate and scaling control)• Production (depth and pipeline thickness, shifting ocean currents, marinisation of remote production systems)• Remote operations at depths that would crush a submarine require complex technological systems• A dry hole can cost ~$150 – 200 million
FLNG project challenges
7Source: Wood Wood Mackenzie, ICIS Heren Global LNG Markets, LNG Business Review
Ichthys Project FID @ a reported $4,000/tonne !Project Sponsors
Feasible ProjectReturn on InvestmentOperating Environment
Resource HolderGovernment Take
Domgas DevelopmentLocal Content
Financial CommunityLegal & Fiscal Stability
Sustainable DevelopmentRobust Cash-Flow
People
Process Projects
Quality front-end planning anticipating key issues and
developing durable solutions
LNG Plant Liquefaction Cost Evolution - $/tonne
Global Gas Prices - $/Mmbtu
A new business model ?
• “Insanity = doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results”
• “Information is not knowledge. The only source of knowledge is experience”
• “You miss 100% of the goals you do not kick the ball”
• “A good hockey player plays where the puck is…. a great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be”
• “Creativity is thinking up new things. Innovation is doing new things”
8Source: Luis Steuer/Albert Einstein, Wayne Gretzky, Theodore Levitt
Gas flaring… from waste to opportunity
9Source: World Bank GGFR, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010, GE Energy, NNPC
• ~145 Bcm/yr flared or ~2.3 mmbbl/d or ~3% of production
• ~33% of European consumption ~ $56 bn @ $10/mmbtu
• Nigeria - 22 Mtpa LNG in ~10 years
Energy policy, investment decisions and industry governance need planning & consistent rules
Gas & LNG floating solutions
10Source: Hoegh LNG, EnerSea, Sea NG, Transocean
• LNG Tankers and FSRU are well established
• FLNG is in post Shell Prelude mode… “design one, build many”… where is the next one ?
• When will ~1-2 Mtpa FLNGs start to occur ?
•• Marine CNG should find good applications Marine CNG should find good applications in complementing offshore production in complementing offshore production systems, gas gathering and floating systems, gas gathering and floating production systems, including FLNGproduction systems, including FLNG
• Refrigeration & pressure have improved CNG compression ratios from 250:1 to 450:1
•• Utilization of composite materials increases Utilization of composite materials increases the possibilities to transport raw gasthe possibilities to transport raw gas
• Delivery system commercial feasibility estimated up to ~2,000 to 3,000 km
FLNG LNG Tankers
FSRU
CNG
Floating CNG producer & shuttle ship
11Source: CNG Gas FPSO and CNG Shuttle ship designs provided by SeaNG Corporation
Floating CNG producer & shuttle ship
12Source: CETech Producer and CNG Shuttle ship designs provided by Höegh LNG AS
Floating CNG producer & shuttle ship
13Source: Neptune Gas Technologies Ltd. ship designs provided by BMT TITRON (UK) Ltd.
Marine CNG applications
UPSTREAM•Increase Existing Oil Production (remove gas handling constraints)•Enable New Oil Production (provide associated gas solution / flare reduction)•Connect Satellite or Marginal Fields (floating gas gathering system)•Connect Remote Area / Deep-water Fields (substitute expensive submarine pipelines)•Production from High Sulfur, H2S, CO2 Fields (transport raw gas to gas treatment plants)•Compliment LNG Production (additional gas supply to LNG on-shore or FLNG)•Early Production / Extended Well Testing Large/Giant Fields (temporary gas solution)
MIDSTREAM / DOWNSTREAM•Transport Raw Gas (offshore platform or onshore gas treatment plant)•Sale of Treated Gas (regional / niche markets / switching from liquid petroleum fuels)
STRATEGIC•Stranded Gas Monetisation (accelerate reserve bookings and increase production)•Leverage Unique Solution (entry into new fields)•Gas Supply to LNG Plants with Unutilised Capacity (tolling gas to increase equity LNG)
14
What role could marine CNG play in Brazil ?
15Note: SyEnergy estimate for Lula, Iracema, Guara, Iara, Jupiter, Parati, Caramba, Carioca, Bem-Te-Vi, Mexilhao, Franco, Sabia & Libra fields
• Campos & Santos fields* hold ~42 billion barrels of gross recoverable oil reserves and ~40 Tcf of gas reserves (~25 Tcf associated)
• Marine CNG could complement pipelines on the ~5-6 Bcf/d gas gathering system
•• Marine CNG offers complimentary synergies for Marine CNG offers complimentary synergies for connected or remote FLNG production systemsconnected or remote FLNG production systems
•• Marine CNG could provide additional gas supply Marine CNG could provide additional gas supply to major cities and power plants along the coastto major cities and power plants along the coast
• Injection into existing coastal pipeline system reducing need/costs of compression stations
• Short travel distances to areas with limited infrastructure unlocking further CCGT growth
•• Opportunity to supply regional gas demandOpportunity to supply regional gas demand
Marine CNG increases gas supply to FLNG
• Scalability (adaptable to production profile ramp up and down)
• Flexibility (variable production rate and storage needs on-shore / on-boat)
• Re-deployability (relocation/repositioning within field, basin or another geography)
• Shorter Development and Deployment Schedule (improved time-to-market & economics)
• Lower Overall Capex $/mmbtu than Alternatives (competitive cost / market price)
• Lower Overall Opex $/mmbtu than Alternatives (attractive market price / supplier margin)
• Wider Portfolio Application (“design few models and build many” – standardization of solution)
• Enable Monetisation of Previously Stranded Hydrocarbons (increase reserve bookings)
• Simpler, Faster and Less Capital Intensive Development of Receiving Terminals / Buoys (able to reach larger number of smaller markets and improved value creation for both parties)
16
Thank You !
FLNG 2012London, 12 June 2012
Claudio H. SteuerPrincipal, SyEnergy Limited