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•Daily Operations Briefing Thursday, October 10, 2013

8:30 a.m. EDT

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Significant Activity: Oct 9 – 10 Significant Events: None

Tropical Activity:

• Atlantic – Area 1 (Medium 50%)

• Eastern Pacific – Tropical Depression Narda; Area 1 (High 70%)

• Central Pacific – No tropical cyclones expected through Friday evening

• Western Pacific – Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert – Guam/CNMI region

Significant Weather:

• Nor’easter conditions - Mid-Atlantic to New England

• Slight risk of severe thunderstorms – Southern & Central Plains

• Rain and mountain snow – Intermountain West

• Critical Fire Weather Areas / Red Flag Warnings: None

• Space Weather: No space weather storms observed/predicted

Earthquake Activity: No significant activity

Declaration Activity: None

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Updates at 2:00 am/pm and 8:00 am/pm EDT

Atlantic – Tropical Outlook

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Atlantic – Area 1 (Invest 98L)

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low

pressure in the far eastern Atlantic

• Located several hundred miles SW of Cape Verde Islands

• Potential for tropical depression to form later today or

tomorrow

• Probability of tropical cyclone development:

• Next 48 hours: Medium (50%)

• Next 5 days: Medium (50%)

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and

11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. Special outlooks may be

issued as conditions warrant.

Eastern Pacific – Tropical Outlook

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Eastern – Tropical Depression Narda

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT (Advisory #15)

• Located 1,315 miles WSW of southern tip of Baja California

• Moving slowly WSW at 2 mph

• Maximum sustained winds 35 mph, with higher gusts

• A slightly faster forward speed forecast next 48 hours

• Gradual weakening is forecast - expected to become a remnant

low later today

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Eastern Pacific – Area 1(Invest 94E)

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of

low pressure

• Located a couple hundred miles SSE of Manzanillo, MX

• Environmental conditions remain conducive for formation of a

tropical depression for the next 48 hours

• Moving WNW or NW at 10 mph

• Probability of tropical cyclone development:

• Next 48 hours: High (70%)

• Next 5 days: High (80%)

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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and

11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. Special outlooks may be

issued as conditions warrant.

Central Pacific – Tropical Outlook

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Western Pacific – TCFA As of 6:00 a.m. EDT (Oct 10)

• Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of

low pressure are located 32 miles north of Guam

• Moving west at 16 mph

• Maximum sustained winds of 20 - 26 mph

• System will remain in the vicinity of Guam through Friday

• Potential for tropical cyclone development within the next 24

hours is high

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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.pdf

National Weather Forecast

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Active Watches/Warnings

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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October Nor’easter October 9, 2013 & continuing

• Slow-moving, coastal low along mid-Atlantic coast through the weekend

• 3-day rainfall, from 2-5 inches; locally higher amounts along the coast

• Coastal Flood Advisories are in affect for portions of eastern VA with

Coastal Flood Advisories northward to CT

Potential Impacts

• Significant flash flooding/overland flooding are not anticipated at this time

• Beach erosion/inundation of shoreline roads and low lying areas

• Combination of the tidal surge and rainfall will result in widespread minor

to possibly moderate coastal flooding

• Strongest winds should remain offshore; leading to rough seas through

the weekend

Response

• Potentially affected state EOCs & FEMA Regions remain at Normal Ops

• No requests for FEMA assistance

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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-3.shtml

Precipitation Forecast – 3 Day

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

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http://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php?current_color=flood&current_type=all&fcst_t

ype=fcst&conus_map=d_map

River Forecast – 7 Day

Hydrograph Page for bdyn1

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Convective Outlooks Days 1 – 3

Day 1 Day 2

Day 3

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Critical Fire Weather Areas Days 1 – 8

Day 1 Day 2

Day 3-8

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_ie.php

Hazard Outlook: Oct 12 – 16

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NOAA Scales Activity (Range: 1/minor to 5/extreme)

Past

24 Hours Current

Next

24 Hours

Space Weather Activity: None None None

• Geomagnetic Storms None None None

• Solar Radiation Storms None None None

• Radio Blackouts None None None

Space Weather

Sunspot Activity

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/global.html http://spaceweather.com/

HF Communication Impact

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Declaration Requests in Process Requests

APPROVED (since last report)

Requests DENIED

(since last report)

1 Date Requested

KS – DR Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding September 25, 2013

Disaster Requests & Declarations

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Open Field Offices as of October 10, 2013

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Deployed Detailed Available Not Available Total

30 1 8 1 40

OFDC Cadre Member Status

Total Available Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4

9* 1 4 2 2

As of: 10/4/2013

* All Type 1 FCOs are available unless deployed to a Level 1 event

Deployed Available Pending Hire On Board Positions

8 1 1 9 10

Federal Coordinating Officer

Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator

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MCOV Fleet / Deployment Status

Fully Mission Capable 52 Partially Mission Capable 0 Non-Mission Capable 3 Total Not Deployed 34

MCOV FLEET STATUS MCOV DISASTER SUPPORT DEPLOYMENTS

Location Units

Assigned Available

FMC Deployed

Committed PMC Unavailable DR-State OPCON

En

Route Unit Prep

Open

Request Notes:

MERS Maynard 3 3 0 0 0 DR-4145-CO 21 0 0

MERS Frederick 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Thomasville 14 11 3 0 0 0 0 0

DC Ft Worth 20 6 14 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Denver 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Bothell 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 0

Sacramento 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 0

TOTAL 55 31 21 0 3 TOTAL 21 0 0 0

Included in above totals, units in route for turn-in. 0 0

Data as of: 10/09/13 @ 1500

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Active IA Disasters - Referral Status & Awards

Data as of: 10/09/13 @ 1500 # Max Grants = Applicants awarded maximum IHP ($32,400 for Major Disasters declared FY 2014)

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IA Registration Statistics

IA Registrations and IHP Amounts as of October 9, 2013 @ 1500

DR/EM # - State Registrations Approved

Applicants Total HA Approved

Total ONA

Approved Total IHP Approved

4145 - CO 23,717 13,521 $37,638,340 $2,627,331 $40,265,671

Totals 23,717 13,521 $37,638,340 $2,627,331 $40,265,671

24 hour change +244 +215 +$831,591 +$131,080 +$962,670

NPSC Call Data for October 8, 2013

Total Calls Answered (Help Line + Registration Intake) 2,473

Average time to answer call 13 seconds

Maximum / Minimum time to answer a call 1 minute, 48 seconds / 8 seconds

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Housing Inspection Statistics

Inspection Data as of October 9, 2013 @ 1500

DR #-State Inspectors Inspections

Assigned

Inspections

Completed Inspection % Complete

Turnaround Time

(Days)

4145 - CO 29 20,561 19,993 97.24% 2.4

TOTAL 29 20,561 19,993 97.24% 2.4

24 hour change 0 +280 +267 -0.03% -0.0

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HIGHLIGHTS:.

CO -

• Region 6 FDRC Earl Zuelke is deployed as deputy FDRC

for Colorado 4145 and 3365 disasters.

• USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service is

providing one exempt individual from their Colorado

office to serve as the field coordinator for NCR. This was

requested by the State and coordinated by the FDRC.

OK –Tribal Nations will be attending a Joint Field Office

Orientation Session on 10/23/13 and 10/24/2013 for an

overview of the JFO and to present information on the

National Disaster Recovery Framework.

DISASTER STATE FDRC

Sandy CT James McPherson

Sandy NJ Peter Martinasco

Sandy NY Ken Curtin

Isaac LA Wayne Rickard

Drought 39 States Colleen Callahan (USDA)

Tornado OK Wayne Rickard

Flood CO Dan Alexander

Flood AK Joan Rave

Flood IL Earl Zuelke

NDRF Operations

Legend

Active NDRF Operations

NDRF Assessments

Drought

No NDRF Operations

Data as of: 10/09/13 @ 1500

AK

HI

FDRC – Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator

JFO – Joint Field Office

NCR – Natural and Cultural Resources

NDRF – National Disaster Recovery Framework

RSF – Recovery Support Function

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IMAT Status National Teams

Team Status Team Status Team Status

Blue/White East West CO

Regional Teams Team Status Team Status Team Status

Region I Region V Region VIII

Region II Region VI-1 Region IX-1

Region III Region VI-2 Region IX-2

Region IV-1 Region VII KS Region X

Region IV-2

= Assigned/Deployed

= Not Mission Capable

= Available/Mission Capable

= Available/Partially Mission Capable

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Urban Search & Rescue INCIDENT SUPPORT TEAMS (Red-White-Blue) – Monthly On Call Rotation

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

WEST CENTRAL EAST

Team Status Team Status Team Status

CA-TF1 Available AZ-TF1 Available FL-TF1 Available

CA-TF2 Available CO-TF1 Available FL-TF2 Available

CA-TF3 Available IN-TF1 Available MA-TF1 Available

CA-TF4 Available MO-TF1 Available MD-TF1 Available

CA-TF5 Available NE-TF1 Available NY-TF1 Available

CA-TF6 Available NM-TF1 Conditional PA-TF1 Available

CA-TF7 Available NV-TF1 Conditional VA-TF1 Available

CA-TF8 Available TN-TF1 Available VA-TF2 Available

WA-TF1 Available TX-TF1 Available OH-TF1 Available

UT-TF1 Available

= Assigned/Deployed = Out-of-Service

= Available/Mission Capable = Available/Partially Mission Capable

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Region RRCC Regional Watch Center

I Not Activated Maynard MOC (24/7)

II Not Activated 24/7

III Not Activated 24/7

IV Not Activated 24/7

V Not Activated 24/7

VI Not Activated Denton MOC (24/7)

VII Not Activated 24/7

VIII Not Activated Denver MOC (24/7)

IX Not Activated 24/7

X Not Activated Bothell MOC (24/7)

RRCC / Regional Watch Center Status

= Not Mission Capable = Available/Partially Mission Capable = Available/Mission Capable

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National Team Status

Team/Status Current Location Remarks

National Watch Center Washington, DC Enhanced Watch (Day only)

NRCC Washington, DC Not Activated

HLT Miami, FL Activated

DEST Washington, DC Not Activated

Mission Capable Partially Mission Capable Not Mission Capable

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