energy consumption patterns and trends energy conversion 3154/5

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ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

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Page 1: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

ENERGY CONSUMPTIONPATTERNS AND TRENDS

ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

Page 2: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

PROCESS

AIRWATER

WASTEENERGY

HUMANACTIVITY

HUMAN PROCESS FLOW CHART

Page 3: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

U3A Bath 13 March 2003

Geoff Hammond

Page 4: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

MATERIAL RESOURCE

EXTRACTION

PROCESSING

METAL/POLYMER

FABRICATION

END USE

ENERGYRESOURCE

POLLUTIONWASTEHEATNOISE

METABOLISM OF INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY

Page 5: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

FUEL

ENERGY

POLLUTIONTHERMALCHEMICAL

RADIOACTIVEETC

EXTRACTION

TRANSPORTATION

REFINING

CONVERSION

TRANSMISSION

END USE

THE ENERGY COST OF ENERGY SUPPLY

Page 6: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

Geoff Hammond

Energy Transform ation System

M ining /R efin ing

C rudeO il

N atura lG as

SolidFuel

U ranium

H ydro / R enew ables

O il

N atura l G as

Solid Fuel

P rim aryE lectric ity

H ydro, N uclear& R enew able

E lectric ityG eneration

D istribution EndU ses

TransportSector

D om esticSector

ServiceSector

Industria lSector

N atura l G as

O il

Solid Fuel

U3A Bath 13 March 2003

Page 7: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

DEMOGRAPHICS

WORLD POP INC.EXPONENTIALLY

DIFFERENTAIL GROWTHOF DC AND LDC

PRESENT POP 6.3 BILLIONHALF UNDER 25YRS OLD

POP INCREASING BY70 MILLION/YR

Page 8: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5
Page 9: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

TWO-STATEMODEL

MALTHUSDOCTRINE

Page 10: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5
Page 11: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

US ENERGY CONSUMPTION

WORLD POP

IC ENGINE

FARADAYWATT

Page 12: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

DOUBLING TIME

THE TIME TAKEN TO DOUBLE THE CONSUMPTION OF ANYTHING IS GIVEN BY DIVIDING 70 BY THE % ANNUAL INCREASE

THE ANNUAL INCREASE IN THE POPULATION OF THE WORLDIS 2%, SO THE DOUBLING TIME IS 35 YEARS

THE ANNUAL INCREASE IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE USA IS 7% SO THE DOUBLING TIME IS 10 YEARS

Page 13: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

WORLD POPULATION

DATE POP x DT (YEARS)

8000 BC 5 1500

1650 AD 500 200

1850 AD 1000 80

1930 AD 2000 45

1975 AD 4000 40

2015 AD 8000 ??

610

Page 14: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

FOOD RESOURCES

FOOD – 8 BILLION CULTIVATABLE ACRES

NEED 1 ACRE PER PERSON PER YEAR

GM CROPS?

Page 15: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

A SIMPLE EXPONENTIAL SERIES IS ONE IN WHICH THE LAST TERM IS DOUBLE THE PREVIOUS TERMEG 1,2,4,8,16,ETC

A PROPERTY OF SUCH A SERIES IS THAT THE LAST TERMIS BIGGER THAN THE SUM OF ALL THE PREVIOUS TERMS

IN THE NEXT 35 YEARS THERE WILL BE MORE PEOPLE BORN THAN IN THE WHOLE OF HISTORY

IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS THE USA WILL USE MORE FUELTHAN IN THE WHOLE OF HISTORY

Page 16: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

CONSUMPTION OF A FINITE RESOURCE

5 TIMES MOREFOR DOUBLE LIFE

SUPPOSE THAT 0.01% USED1/10,000 OF KNOWN RESERVE

EXHAUSTION IN 13.3 DOUBLING TIMES

FOR DT = 10 YRS, ALL GONE IN 135 YRS

Page 17: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

ELECTRIFICATION

• ALL DEVELOPED SOCIETIES SHOW A TREND TOWARDS GREATER USE OF ELECTRICITY

• THIS MEANS HIGHER CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY FUELS

• THIS MEANS MORE ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION

Page 18: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

THE INFLUENCE OF THE USA

5% 0F THE WORLD’S POPULATION USING 60% OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY AND PRODUCING MOST OF THE WORLD’S POLLUTION

WILL NOT RATIFY THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

Page 19: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

PATTERN OF ENERGY USE IN THE USA, 1970

SANKEY DIAGRAM

Page 20: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

US ENERGY USE PATTERNS 1985

Page 21: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

CONSEQUENCES OF ELECTRIFICATION

Page 22: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5
Page 23: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5
Page 24: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5
Page 25: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION % OF TOTAL, 10,000 MTOE, 1993

OIL

COAL

GAS

BIOMASS

HYDRO

NUCLEAR