energy consumption patterns and trends energy conversion 3154/5
TRANSCRIPT
ENERGY CONSUMPTIONPATTERNS AND TRENDS
ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5
PROCESS
AIRWATER
WASTEENERGY
HUMANACTIVITY
HUMAN PROCESS FLOW CHART
U3A Bath 13 March 2003
Geoff Hammond
MATERIAL RESOURCE
EXTRACTION
PROCESSING
METAL/POLYMER
FABRICATION
END USE
ENERGYRESOURCE
POLLUTIONWASTEHEATNOISE
METABOLISM OF INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY
FUEL
ENERGY
POLLUTIONTHERMALCHEMICAL
RADIOACTIVEETC
EXTRACTION
TRANSPORTATION
REFINING
CONVERSION
TRANSMISSION
END USE
THE ENERGY COST OF ENERGY SUPPLY
Geoff Hammond
Energy Transform ation System
M ining /R efin ing
C rudeO il
N atura lG as
SolidFuel
U ranium
H ydro / R enew ables
O il
N atura l G as
Solid Fuel
P rim aryE lectric ity
H ydro, N uclear& R enew able
E lectric ityG eneration
D istribution EndU ses
TransportSector
D om esticSector
ServiceSector
Industria lSector
N atura l G as
O il
Solid Fuel
U3A Bath 13 March 2003
DEMOGRAPHICS
WORLD POP INC.EXPONENTIALLY
DIFFERENTAIL GROWTHOF DC AND LDC
PRESENT POP 6.3 BILLIONHALF UNDER 25YRS OLD
POP INCREASING BY70 MILLION/YR
TWO-STATEMODEL
MALTHUSDOCTRINE
US ENERGY CONSUMPTION
WORLD POP
IC ENGINE
FARADAYWATT
DOUBLING TIME
THE TIME TAKEN TO DOUBLE THE CONSUMPTION OF ANYTHING IS GIVEN BY DIVIDING 70 BY THE % ANNUAL INCREASE
THE ANNUAL INCREASE IN THE POPULATION OF THE WORLDIS 2%, SO THE DOUBLING TIME IS 35 YEARS
THE ANNUAL INCREASE IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE USA IS 7% SO THE DOUBLING TIME IS 10 YEARS
WORLD POPULATION
DATE POP x DT (YEARS)
8000 BC 5 1500
1650 AD 500 200
1850 AD 1000 80
1930 AD 2000 45
1975 AD 4000 40
2015 AD 8000 ??
610
FOOD RESOURCES
FOOD – 8 BILLION CULTIVATABLE ACRES
NEED 1 ACRE PER PERSON PER YEAR
GM CROPS?
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
A SIMPLE EXPONENTIAL SERIES IS ONE IN WHICH THE LAST TERM IS DOUBLE THE PREVIOUS TERMEG 1,2,4,8,16,ETC
A PROPERTY OF SUCH A SERIES IS THAT THE LAST TERMIS BIGGER THAN THE SUM OF ALL THE PREVIOUS TERMS
IN THE NEXT 35 YEARS THERE WILL BE MORE PEOPLE BORN THAN IN THE WHOLE OF HISTORY
IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS THE USA WILL USE MORE FUELTHAN IN THE WHOLE OF HISTORY
CONSUMPTION OF A FINITE RESOURCE
5 TIMES MOREFOR DOUBLE LIFE
SUPPOSE THAT 0.01% USED1/10,000 OF KNOWN RESERVE
EXHAUSTION IN 13.3 DOUBLING TIMES
FOR DT = 10 YRS, ALL GONE IN 135 YRS
ELECTRIFICATION
• ALL DEVELOPED SOCIETIES SHOW A TREND TOWARDS GREATER USE OF ELECTRICITY
• THIS MEANS HIGHER CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY FUELS
• THIS MEANS MORE ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION
THE INFLUENCE OF THE USA
5% 0F THE WORLD’S POPULATION USING 60% OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY AND PRODUCING MOST OF THE WORLD’S POLLUTION
WILL NOT RATIFY THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
PATTERN OF ENERGY USE IN THE USA, 1970
SANKEY DIAGRAM
US ENERGY USE PATTERNS 1985
CONSEQUENCES OF ELECTRIFICATION
WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION % OF TOTAL, 10,000 MTOE, 1993
OIL
COAL
GAS
BIOMASS
HYDRO
NUCLEAR