central scorepp database (cdb) and the decision support system (dss) matej cerk, university of...

Central ScorePP Database (CDB) andthe Decision Support System (DSS)

Matej Cerk, University of Ljubljana

ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

WPs: 9.3; 6.2; 6.3; 6.4; 6.5…8.1; 8.5

Matej Cerk, University of Ljubljana


DPSIR framework of SCOREPP


Pressures

(Impacts)Driving Forces

ResponsesMeasures and

control strategies to reduce

emissions of PPs

Exceedance of the EQS for PPs in the surface waterIndustry

HouseholdsInfrastructure (roads, railroads…

Emissions of PP to the environment

PPs in the receiving waters

DSS

State - WFD

Central Database (CDB) structure MODULES ARE LINKED QUERIES BETWEEN

MODULES

PP module inherent properties

ES module compiled literature classified to types

GIS module geographical data of a

catchment additional data (AM)


GIS module:Visualization of sources ES + GIS data + AM maps

of sources ES 1715: Mercury emissions

from dental clinics• 0,27g per dentist per day if

there is no amalgam separation• 5% of that value with

amalgam separation GIS data: locations of all

dentist clinics AM: no. of employed dentists

When AM is quantitative visualization of amounts

When AM is qualitative visualization of potential sources

DRIVERS,PRESSURES

DRIVERS,PRESSURES


Visualization example:TBT emissions

DRIVERS,PRESSURES


Emission Barriers (EB) module

Includes: Treatment options Treatment efficiencies Costs of treatment options

Substitution options

Linked to the ES module

EB example: 43 - Use of amalgam separator in dental clinics

Substitution example90 – Use of ceramic fillings instead of amalgam fillings

Some other EB examples:Settling, filtration, christalization, …

RESPONSESRESPONSES


Source Control Measures module

Legislation compiled into database (currently EU diretives)

“New legislation was/is applied by the federal government in the AREA of EUon the activities which use TBT as plastic stabilizer, requesting substitution of the TBT with the substance XY by 2020. As a consequence the activities which use TBT as plastic stabilizer will incur investment costs of 400 EUR per annual produced ton of plastics. Producers of the TBT will seize the production affecting them with the necessary change of the production facilities. Non-compliance penalties are xxx EUR, enforced by the INSTITUTION”

SCM for dentists no 83 : obligatory amalgam sep. Council Directive 91/689/EEC of 12 December 1991 on hazardous waste

RESPONSESRESPONSES


Economics module

Clustering of the ES, EB, SCM per economic sector

Comparison between different EU member states

RESPONSESRESPONSES


Mathematical modelling module

Integrates mathematical models into database Models simulate the concentrations in river (after WWTP) Possibility of Emission Barrier (EB) application

RESPONSESSTATE


Monitoring module

Visualization of monitoring points and results Comparison with modelled results

RESPONSESSTATE


Decision Support System concept

MICRO

• Collecting ESs, EBs, SCMs per small catchment

• Modeling small catchment

DSS MEZO

• Visualization of Ess on large areas• Identification• Quantification

MACRO

Clustering and analisys per sector model (60 sector matrix)• ES, EB, SCM• Analysis of sector importance and interference – COUNTRY SPECIFIC


DSSMultiperspective approach


Organizational

perspective

dialectics

Machiavelli, Sun Tszu

Sun Tszu (The art of war)

Maslow hierarchy of needs indiv. Perception indiv. Reality intuition

Data model

system analysis

decision trees

C/B analysis

INDIVIDUALSTECHNOLOGY

ORGANIZATIONAL

GROUPS

Technical perspective

Personal

perspective

Decision is a Source Control Measure

Combination of SCM is Emission Control Strategy.

Different combinations of SCM are possible scenarios.

Multidimensional clustering of Emission Strings, Emission Barriers and Source Control Measures are essential for development of Emission Control Strategy (by CAS, by 60 sectors of economy, by emission types, by

emission control mesures, etc. )

CONCLUSION: Difficult integration of legislation into SCM, as it is not

adopted to the concept of ES and EB US Source Classification Codes


The presentation continues by Primož Banovec

ScorePP Dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

Macroeconomic evaluation

MICRO

• Collecting ESs, EBs, SCMs per small catchment

• Modeling small catchment

DSS MEZO

• Visualization of Ess on large areas• Identification• Quantification

MACRO

Analysis per sector model (60 sector matrix)• ES, EB, SCM• Analysis of sector importance and interference – COUNTRY SPECIFIC


Macroeconomics: Macro economics is the study of behavior of the economy as a

whole. It examines the overall level of nations output, employment, price and foreign trade.

It tells us how million of consumers and producers in an economy take decision about the allocation of productive recourses and million of goods and services. As for the practical importance Micro economics in the formulation of economics policies calculate to promote efficiency in production and welfare of the masses.

Tree and the fores issue: microeconomist might study the systems that make an individual tree function efficiently, providing it with the sustanence it needs to thrive in the forest. A macroeconomist, however, will take a broader look at the forest as a whole, and observe how the thousands of trees work together in conjunction with the sun, the soil, the oxygen, nitrogen, and H2O in the environment that make the entire forest function efficiently as one giant organism.


Macroeconomics introduction: Aggregated supply of goods and services that are

related to the emissions of priority pollutants – supply related mainly to the production of goods and services by different activities (NACE classification in the Emission Strings) and output of different sectors.

Aggregated demand of goods and services that are related to the emissions of priority pollutants Demand – as function of sector demand and household demand

Imports and exports as border condition to aggregaated supply and demand


Macroeconomic approach applied:

From basic statistical data on from the System of National Accounts indicating production and consumption, to

Sectorial supply and demand data, to Input – output tables, to Leontief matrix, to Computable general equilibrium model CGE

The CGE is in the field of pollution management focused on the management of externalities, but externalities in the field of water pollution are closely related to impacts and economic evaluation of impacts for this domain is not studied on the suffucent level to include it into macroeconomic evaluation. Also environmental (pollution) markets is not well defined and elasticity of supply/demand of those as well.


Circulation in macroeconomics


Circulations in macroeconomics regarding emissions


WORKFORCE MARKET

FINANCIAL MARKET

GOVERNMENTHOUSEHOLDS CORPORATION

COMMODITY MARKETFOREIGN

Production process

ES

labour supply

wages

supplydemand

import

export

Use process

HES

Labour demand

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Out

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(em

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c

? ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES MARKET ?

Tc

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Macroeconomics – Slovenia – household consumption:


1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Food and non-alcoholic beverages 1140.1 1299.3 1439.5 1612.8 1729.6 1843.5 2031.6 2238.0 2380.3Food 1030.6 1166.7 1303.2 1460.3 1569.6 1671.5 1849.1 2034.7 2157.1Non-alcoholic beverages 109.5 132.6 136.2 152.4 160.0 172.0 182.5 203.3 223.3

Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and drugs 386.5 419.8 439.7 478.7 549.0 596.1 607.7 655.0 750.2Alcoholic beverages, 160.7 178.7 185.4 211.9 224.5 233.3 246.5 263.2 283.5Tobacco 186.5 194.6 204.1 211.0 260.0 285.4 275.4 312.1 340.0Drugs 39.3 46.5 50.2 55.8 64.5 77.4 85.8 79.7 126.7

Clothing and footware 399.0 441.1 504.3 551.8 618.3 732.4 777.7 827.0 894.2Clothing 311.2 344.9 396.1 430.5 475.3 560.1 598.0 623.4 697.5Footware 87.7 96.2 108.2 121.3 143.0 172.3 179.7 203.7 196.7

Dwellings, rents and related services 1180.3 1361.1 1529.1 1695.7 1861.2 2124.5 2350.5 2550.8 2727.7Actual rents on appartments 32 36 40 44 50 55 61 74 87Adjecant dwelling rents 757 885 975 1069 1162 1321 1455 1567 1649Maintenance and repairs of dwellings 9 11 11 12 17 17 18 20 22Other related services to dwellings 75 94 103 119 132 153 171 213 235Electricity, gas and other energents 308 335 399 452 501 579 646 676 733

furniture, household equipment and maintenance 376.8 422.6 464.6 547.8 614.1 667.4 738.6 807.1 872.4Furniture, other equipment, carpets 95.7 111.3 123.9 158.8 188.3 207.5 236.8 266.1 283.6Household textiles 32.6 36.2 37.0 43.6 46.5 50.6 56.1 59.3 62.1Household devices 82.9 93.9 104.5 131.4 131.3 148.5 156.1 169.0 198.7Glassware and coockware 54.2 56.4 63.9 68.5 75.6 80.2 80.4 84.4 76.2Tools and devices for house and garden 15.6 16.9 17.7 19.9 23.2 24.2 25.7 28.6 34.6products and serivces of regular dwelling maintenance 95.7 107.8 117.7 125.7 149.3 156.4 183.6 199.7 217.3

Health care 170.0 210.5 235.7 271.2 327.0 354.8 422.9 468.7 506.3Medical and pharmaceutical products 63.4 76.9 91.5 113.3 134.3 152.8 185.4 210.2 233.6Non-hospital services 80.8 99.8 110.3 118.5 139.5 143.8 173.8 193.4 205.2Hospital services 25.8 33.8 34.0 39.4 53.3 58.2 63.6 65.2 67.5

Transport 1111.2 1247.7 1297.1 1521.0 1519.4 1674.3 1807.6 2029.9 2222.7Purchase of vehicles 526.1 583.9 624.0 702.0 537.9 597.7 654.0 761.3 880.1Products and services for vehicles 499.9 560.6 562.1 695.7 851.2 933.8 1001.7 1104.5 1170.6Transportation services 85.2 103.1 110.9 123.2 130.3 142.7 151.9 164.1 172.1

Communication 120.9 148.4 174.9 205.7 226.6 264.1 347.9 413.8 488.3Postal services 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.8 5.4 6.7 7.1 9.3 10.7Phone and fax equipment 9.1 11.0 11.8 15.7 16.9 17.5 19.3 22.6 24.8Phone and fax services 108.9 134.1 159.2 185.2 204.3 240.0 321.4 381.9 452.9

Recreation and culture 611.2 739.4 837.0 961.3 1039.3 1150.2 1280.1 1451.0 1598.4Audio and computer equipment 75.9 90.5 106.2 124.0 133.8 149.1 174.6 194.6 206.2Other fitness and cultural goods 11.0 12.7 14.8 16.6 18.3 19.8 21.6 25.0 25.1Other free-time products (i.e. pets) 95.3 115.8 129.6 154.5 192.0 220.5 253.2 292.4 342.9Recreationa and culture services 214.2 257.3 303.2 362.4 378.0 430.1 468.8 529.4 590.2Newspapaers, books and material 100.4 121.9 132.3 147.9 147.6 162.6 175.0 192.8 207.1Travel 114.4 141.2 151.0 155.8 169.6 168.0 186.9 216.8 226.8

Education 55.1 62.8 71.9 75.6 87.3 99.1 110.3 127.7 144.3Pre-school and primary school 19.1 21.7 24.9 26.2 30.1 32.1 34.4 37.6 47.3Secondary school 5.3 6.0 6.9 7.2 8.3 8.9 10.5 11.2 15.2Higher and university education 16.4 18.7 21.4 22.5 26.7 31.0 36.6 45.8 44.1Other education 14.5 16.4 18.7 19.6 22.2 27.1 28.8 33.0 37.7

Hotels, restaurants 442.3 511.0 565.4 619.4 656.1 730.4 764.9 882.0 970.0Restaurants 359.4 417.2 463.2 505.6 529.4 571.3 603.0 695.2 740.2Hotels 82.8 93.8 102.2 113.9 126.7 159.0 161.8 186.8 229.9

Various products and services 571.0 681.3 749.4 825.8 931.3 951.1 1064.5 1219.6 1341.5Personal care 129.8 152.6 171.2 209.0 219.8 259.0 278.7 320.8 345.9Prostitution 34.4 38.5 41.4 44.2 49.4 53.6 54.6 53.9 39.2Other personal products 37.8 45.0 49.4 53.1 51.9 55.9 59.7 72.6 80.7Social car 45.4 52.7 56.8 69.1 67.8 75.2 81.7 88.5 98.7Insurance 110.4 127.3 146.1 177.1 201.6 173.3 217.5 277.6 289.5Financial services 147.6 188.2 198.2 180.6 238.5 226.4 242.7 266.6 342.1Other services 65.6 77.1 86.1 92.7 102.3 107.7 129.6 139.4 145.4

Fixed prices of previous year (mio. EUR)

Macroeconomics – Slovenia – household consumption:

Household behaviour is not monitoring the level of environmental behaviour of household demand – behavour could be monitored partially on the supply side (yet too aggregated)

Macroeconomics - Slovenia: From basic statistical data on from the System of

National Accounts indicating productin and consumption, to

Adapted from previous 20 sectorial model to more complex 60 sectorial model, some adaptation rules of ES to the 60 sectorial model

Some emission strings multiplied in order to provide resolution

Emission strings “natural background” Firm category of ES defined as households defined which is

based upon the household aggregated demand function.

Sectorial supply and demand data, to Input – output tables, to Leontief matrix, to


Macroeconomics – Slovenia – ES to 60 sectorial model


1 Products of agriculture, hunting and related services 2 Products of forestry, logging and related services 5 Fish and other fishing products; services incidental of fishing 10 Coal and lignite; peat 11 Crude petroleum and natural gas; services incidental to oil and gas extraction excluding surveying 12 Uranium and thorium ores 13 Metal ores 14 Other mining and quarrying products 15 Food products and beverages 16 Tobacco products 17 Textiles 18 Wearing apparel; furs 19 Leather and leather products 20 Wood and products of wood and cork (except furniture); articles of straw and plaiting materials 21 Pulp, paper and paper products 22 Printed matter and recorded media 23 Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuels 24 Chemicals, chemical products and man-made fibres 25 Rubber and plastic products 26 Other non-metallic mineral products 27 Basic metals 28 Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 29 Machinery and equipment n.e.c. 30 Office machinery and computers

31 Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c. 32 Radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus 33 Medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks 34 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 35 Other transport equipment 36 Furniture; other manufactured goods n.e.c. 37 Secondary raw materials 40 Electrical energy, gas, steam and hot water 41 Collected and purified water, distribution services of water 45 Construction work 50 Trade, maintenance and repair services of motor vehicles and motorcycles; retail sale of automotive fuel 51 Wholesale trade and commission trade services, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 52 Retail trade services, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair services of personal and household goods 55 Hotel and restaurant services 60 Land transport; transport via pipeline services 61 Water transport services 62 Air transport services 63 Supporting and auxiliary transport services; travel agency services 64 Post and telecommunication services 65 Financial intermediation services, except insurance and pension funding services 66 Insurance and pension funding services, except compulsory social security services 67 Services auxiliary to financial intermediation 70 Real estate services 71 Renting services of machinery and equipment without operator and of personal and household goods 72 Computer and related services 73 Research and development services 74 Other business services 75 Public administration and defence services; compulsory social security services 80 Education services 85 Health and social work services 90 Sewage and refuse disposal services, sanitation and similar services 91 Membership organisation services n.e.c. 92 Recreational, cultural and sporting services 93 Other services

Some examples of ME analysis refer to 100 sectorial model. Useful – they expand sector 24 and 60, but less standardized. Sectors and ES types identifiable, sector material statistics shall be expanded.


No. of emission strings per sector – relationship model


Identified source control measures per sector


Substitution options per sector


No. of emission barriers per sector

Some emission barriers are related to ES Types i.e. BMP-s


Sector/emission strings/barriers/substitution analysis (part)


Slovenia – supply ME analysis to ES (mio. EUR, 2008)

Selection on the basis of top sectors regarding Production Employment Added value Emission strings related


Prioritizing sectors for I/O analysis

Normalized I/O table – Leontief matrix for construction sector – buy from (input)


Normalized I/O table – Leontief matrix for construction sector – sell to (output)


Macroeconomics – Slovenia Input – output tables, conclusions

As anticipated – the economies are complex interrelated system, sectors are not only related to specific emission strings, but are interdependent, using on the supply side – with potentially long supply interdependencies.

The emission barriers applied are identified as emission control measures, emission barriers yet applicable are identifiable, their direct effects should be evaluated on the level of microeconomic C/B analysis;

Cross-sectorial effect could be identified via macroeconomic analysis presented.


Macroeconomics – From Slovenia to EU: Same analysis provided also for some other EU

countries Country specifics could be recognized


Normalized supply matrix by country and sector - national importance of sectors (and related PP emissions (‰)

Scorepp dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

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20 1.2 1.4 0 22 0 0 1 46 1.5 2.7 1 0.2 5.6 3.3 12 9.9 23 8.7 7.4 3.4 16 27 0.7 16 3.3 7.5 2.6 4.1 9.8 1 20 1.2 75 15 71 3012 5 0.1 0 1.9 0 0 2.3 30 0.7 4.3 1.6 1.4 15 11 11 10 19 10 13 26 25 36 0.5 13 12 4.7 31 5.4 11 0.9 45 1.3 73 16 57 3411 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 0 1.2 44 1.5 10 2.6 0.5 5 6.2 11 33 52 9.3 11 29 18 15 0.4 7.6 5.9 2.1 34 3.1 6 3.1 15 1.7 66 20 64 3616 5.3 0.1 6.9 0.6 0.1 0 1.7 36 1 7 3.3 1.4 11 6.7 9.7 10 18 27 17 27 34 41 21 27 26 5 66 6.2 11 2.9 33 3.6 87 13 49 2622 13 1.9 0 5.9 0 0 1.8 43 0 12 10 1.9 42 3.5 12 2.7 14 10 15 0.7 27 11 1.6 15 43 4.7 5.3 6.9 18 2.2 27 3.1 85 17 58 3421 1.9 0.6 0 0.2 0 0 1.7 37 0.2 3.4 2.9 1 3.6 5.8 9.4 17 30 11 7.9 13 19 18 0.7 8.5 6.5 6.5 27 17 5.6 2.1 21 2.8 69 13 51 34

9.6 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.8 0 0 1.4 34 1 3.2 2.2 0.7 5.6 7.8 12 15 34 15 9.1 22 26 47 3.1 23 9.2 10 67 8.1 7.3 1.2 23 2.1 46 14 39 3418 3.8 0.1 2.3 0 0.1 0 2 29 0 14 6.2 7.1 11 10 12 0.1 39 24 14 24 44 38 1.3 21 6.1 7 29 3 12 3.1 23 4.4 106 17 49 3320 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0 0.1 2.5 46 0.4 4.5 4.4 2.9 5.6 6.3 11 18 23 9.7 18 19 22 15 0.7 10 3.1 2.1 30 6.8 8.5 3.5 24 2.9 166 18 34 34

7.3 5.4 0.3 0.2 0 0 4.8 0 25 0 1.5 0.5 0.3 16 22 13 15 27 7.3 5.8 27 21 39 1.4 29 0 8.7 49 6.6 6.7 0.9 19 2.2 45 83 0 012 0.4 0.5 0.9 12 0 0 2.5 34 1.5 5.4 3.5 0.9 3.3 6.7 19 7.1 25 11 6.7 8.7 15 18 7.8 8.4 11 6.4 20 11 8.2 0.8 25 2.5 68 20 52 44

SpainSwedenUnited Kingdom

EstoniaFranceGermanySlovenia

DenmarkAustriaBelgiumCzech

Conclusions:

Scorepp dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

We can see the tree and the forest of the domain of PP management and abatment,

Zoomable analysis – from the identification of sectors and intersectorial comparation, to micro analysis of individual pollultion source and again back to sectors,

Work on the evaluation of externalities induced by the PPs

Framework for the PP sattelite accounts is established – with these sattelite accounts it could be possible to evaluate the role of PP emissions on the national economies and follow its development through time

Multidimensional sectorial analysis and impacts on national economies evluated

Adaptation of ES concept on different levels of governance (comparable to US EPA – Source Control Codes).

Thank you.

Questions are welcomed.

What is your perspective?

ScorePP Dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

central scorepp database (cdb) and the decision support system (dss) matej cerk, university of...

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