the global earthquake model:broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
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The Global Earthquake Model:broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Vitor SilvaSeismic Risk Coordinator, GEM Foundation, July 2014 - London
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
• Working together –collaborative
• Trusted Science – credible
• True Transparency –transparent
Beyond Ourselves –public good
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
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Dec '08 Jun '09 Dec '09 Jun '10 Dec '10 Jun '11 Dec '11 Jun '12 Dec '12 Jun '13
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Public Partners
International Bodies
Private Partners
Engaging the Public and Private sector
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Current Public Participants
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Current Private Participants
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Current Associate Participants
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
• Working together –collaborative
• Trusted Science – credible
• True Transparency –transparent
The above framework has guided GEM development during the first working programme
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Advancing science through global projects
Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue
Historical Catalogue and Archive
Ground Motion Prediction Equations
Active Faults Database and Tools
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Advancing science through global projects
Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue
Historical Catalogue and Archive
Ground Motion Prediction Equations
Active Faults Database and Tools
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
GEM – Instrumental Seismic Catalogue
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
GEM – Historical Seismic Catalogue
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
• Working together –collaborative
• Trusted Science – credible
• True Transparency –transparent
GEM – Faulted Earth Database
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Advancing science through global projects
Vulnerability Database
Exposure Database
Inventory Data Capture Tools
Building Taxonomy
Earthquake consequences database
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
GEM – Global Exposure Database
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
GEM – Vulnerability database
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
GEM – Faulted Earth Database
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Hazard outputs – Seismic hazard curves
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Hazard outputs – Seismic hazard maps
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Hazard outputs – Stochastic event sets
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Hazard outputs – Seismic hazard disaggregation
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Hazard outputs – Single earthquake ground motion field
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Risk outputs – Probabilistic loss maps
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Risk outputs – Single earthquake loss map
2007 Pisco Earthquake (Mw 8.0)
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Risk outputs – Single earthquake collapse distribution
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Global hazard assessment
The Global Earthquake Model
broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Global risk assessment
OpenQuake in a Reinsurance Context
Ole Hanekop, Group Risk Management - Modelling
Understanding Risk ForumLondon, 2 July 2014
GEM & Hannover Re
Participation in a unique international public-private partnership
Access to global earthquake model based on latest science
Exchange with the scientific community
Full model transparency
Supplement and validate commercial vendor models
Strengthening of risk management processes
Build-up of additinal in-house expertise on earthquake risk
Improved services for clients
Extension of possibilities to model parametric (re)insurance solutions
Motivation to participate
GEM & Hannover Re
31 Title of presentation
OpenQuake and Datasets
GEM provides OpenQuake software and associated products and tools (e.g. Modellers Toolkit) Ready to use PSHA models Vulnerability and Fragility functions Global databases for historical events and consequences Support in running OQ and using provided datasets
GEM currently does not provide Ready to use risk models Graphical user interface for OQ (to be released soon)
OpenQuake @ Hannover Re
32 Title of presentation
Simple Example, Aggregate model for Ecuador
1 10 100 1000 10000
Annu
al A
ggre
gate
Los
s
Return Period
Annual aggregate Loss EC EQ
OpenQuake @ Hannover Re
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SHARE seismic source model Three different source models in a logic tree
Title of presentation
More complex example, Germany
OpenQuake @ Hannover Re
34
Soil Conditions Building Codes (DIN 2005)
Title of presentation
Side effects on hazard and vulnerability
OpenQuake @ Hannover Re
35 Title of presentation
Exposure distributions and building characteristics
Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -www.globalearthquakemodel.org
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