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    This article was downloaded by: [INASP - Pakistan (PERI)]On: 22 August 2015, At: 00:59Publisher: Taylor & FrancisInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registeredoffice: 5 Howick Place, London, SW1P 1WG

    Human and Ecological Risk Assessment:

    An International JournalPublication details, including instructions for authors andsubscription information:http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/bher20

    Earthquake Insurance and EarthquakeRisk ManagementZhengru Tao

    ab, Desheng Dash Wu

    cd, Zhenlong Zheng

    b& Xiaxin

    Tao

    e

    a

    aInstitute of Engineering Mechanics , China Earthquake

    Administration , Harbin, ChinabDepartment of Finance , Xiamen University , Xiamen, China

    cReykjavik University , Reykjavk, Iceland

    dRiskLab , University of Toronto , Toronto, ON, Canada

    eHarbin Institute of Technology , Harbin, China

    Published online: 07 Jun 2010.

    To cite this article:Zhengru Tao , Desheng Dash Wu , Zhenlong Zheng & Xiaxin Tao (2010) EarthquakeInsurance and Earthquake Risk Management, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An InternationalJournal, 16:3, 524-535, DOI: 10.1080/10807031003788634

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    Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 16: 524535, 2010Copyright CTaylor & Francis Group, LLCISSN: 1080-7039 print / 1549-7860 onlineDOI: 10.1080/10807031003788634

    Earthquake Insurance and Earthquake Risk

    Management

    Zhengru Tao,1,2 Desheng Dash Wu,3 Zhenlong Zheng,2 and Xiaxin Tao4,1

    1Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin,China; 2Department of Finance, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China; 3ReykjavikUniversity, Reykjavk, Iceland and RiskLab, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON,Canada; 4Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China

    ABSTRACT

    The Wenchuan earthquake is the largest devastating earthquake striking Chinasince the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. In this catastrophe, loss payments were mainlyfrom the government and public endowment. The insurance industry is expectedto take more responsibility in the future, since earthquake insurance is one of themost effective and equitable instruments to disperse earthquake losses. In this arti-cle, earthquake risk management and the development of earthquake insurance inChina are reviewed. Earthquake insurance is suggested as an instrument in earth-quake risk management, where the premium rate of earthquake insurance is a key

    factor that needs to be determined reasonably. Seismic hazard is analyzed for theWenchuan earthquake-stricken area, and is combined with primary loss estimationto construct the exceeding probability curve. Earthquake insurance premium ratesare calculated for buildings in the area, including RC (Reinforced Concrete), frame,and brick, corresponding to two kinds of insurance deductible.

    Key Words: Wenchuan earthquake, earthquake insurance, earthquake risk man-agement, engineering seismic risk assessment.

    INTRODUCTION

    At 14:28 (Beijing time) on May 12, 2008, an earthquake with magnitude M= 8.0 occurred in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, China, which is a ruraland mountainous region in western China. The epicenter was located at 3100Nand 10324E, about 80 km west of Chengdu, the Sichuan province capital, andthe epicentral depth was 14 km. Neighbor cities such as Mianzhu, Guangyuan,Mianyang, and Dujiangyan, even Chengdu, were damaged extensively. Almost allprovinces in China felt the shock, because of the shallow epicenter and the stiff soiland rocks surrounding the fault, the seismic waves traveled far with less energy loss.

    Address correspondence to Desheng Dash Wu, Reykjavik University, Kringlunni 1, IS-103Reykjavk, Iceland and RiskLab, University of Toronto, 1 Spadina Crescent, Toronto, ON,

    Canada M5S 3G3. E-mail: [email protected]

    524

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    It was the largest devastating earthquake striking China after the 1976 Tangshanearthquake. The official report released by the State Council Information Officeof the P. R. China indicated that 69,226 people died, 17,923 were missing, and374,643 were injured, as of September 11, 2008 (www.xinhuanet.com, 2008b). Thedirect economic loss was estimated as 845.1 billion RMB, in which 91.3% was fromSichuan Province (www.xinhuanet.com, 2008a). Although the Chinese governmentand people responded as quickly as possible, there are still some improvements onearthquake risk management that could be accomplished. The insurance industryis expected to take more responsibility in such future catastrophes.

    In some countries, earthquake peril is insured. For example, earthquake insur-ance is mandatory, and is included in every fire policy written by the private in-surance companies in France, New Zealand, and Spain. Both California and Japanhave a governmentprivate shared separate policy for household risks. Purchase ofsuch insurance is voluntary. Australia and Italy leave the insuring of the earthquake

    peril to the private insurance industry (Richard 1999; Walker 2000; Smolka 2000).The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) starting operations in late 2000and compulsory earthquake insurance scheme provide coverage for all residentialbuildings that fall within municipal boundaries (Smolka 2000; Spence et al. 2002).In 2003, Indonesia launched an initiative to promote insurance coverage for naturaldisasters by requiring all licensed general insurance and reinsurance operators tocooperate in insuring special risks through a joint undertaking of all companiesknown as the Indonesian Earthquake Reinsurance Pool or PRGBI (Pool ReasuransiGempa Bumi Indonesia) (Silaban and Hadi 2008).

    For the buildings in areas affected by the Wenchuan earthquake, earthquakeinsurance premium rates are determined in this article, based on seismic hazard

    analysis and primary loss estimation from the earthquake.

    EARTHQUAKE RISK MANAGEMENT IN CHINA

    In China, it is the primary liability of local governments to organize relevant de-partments to act rapidly and effectively for earthquake disaster under the uniformdecision of the central government. Local chief officers must be on the scene todirect and coordinate manpower, appliances, and materials, and communicate withsuperiors and rescuers if a devastating earthquake occurs. There are three branchesof forces that play roles in rescue, recovery, and reconstruction: (1) administra-

    tive departments with perfect organization, chain of command and correspondingrights; (2) disaster prevention and reduction systems, which have been establishedduring the last 40 years, and even local earthquake administrations already havehad advanced instruments on earthquake monitoring and forecast; and (3) expertsand researchers who study the mechanism, the characteristics, and the rules ofearthquakes, and suggest countermeasures.

    The current earthquake risk management system in China is founded under theplanned economy, so some limitations and problems are exposed in the progressof economy development and reformation to the market system in the country, es-pecially after entered into the World Trade Organization (WTO). For example, theinfo-sharing systems of earthquake disasters among various branches are imperfect,

    the support of advanced technology is not well built in emergency decisions, and the

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    management is mainly based on administrative measures. The limitations are mainlyembodied that the government takes almost all of the responsibility from defense,rescue to reconstruction, and the enthusiasm of non-state economic sectors is im-peded. The Wenchuan earthquake suggests it is urgent to deepen the reformationof the current system and diversify management instruments.

    EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IN CHINA

    Naturally, insurance is one of the most effective instruments to disperse risk.(Wu and Olsen 2009) However, it has been a long way for earthquake insurance todevelop in China. In the 1950s, earthquake risk was the basic liability of the propertyinsurance policy issued in the Peoples Republic of China. In the relevant rules andprovisions that follow, the same regulation was maintained. The insurance industry

    did not suffer from several great earthquakes, for example, the 1966 Xingtaiearthquake, the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, and the 1976 Tangshan earthquake,since the insurance operation was interrupted from 1958 to 1979. Earthquakerisk was insured again as the liability of property insurance when the insuranceoperation was resumed in 1980.

    As the economic system was reformed to a market-based one, insurers estimatedthe insured risk in detail and carefully to keep their profits. Earthquake risk was con-sidered as uninsured one for the uncertainty and potential huge compensation. In1996, earthquake risk was regulated as excluded liability in the clauses of two kindsof property insurances issued by the Peoples Bank of China, but was not excludedin two kinds of property insurance adopted in insurance operation with foreign-

    ers (Xiong and Luo 2003). According to Article 25 in LAW OF THE PEOPLESREPUBLIC OF CHINA ON PROTECTING AGAINST AND MITIGATING EARTH-QUAKE DISASTERS, issued in 1998, the State encourages units and individuals toinsure against earthquake disasters. Afterward, the Peoples Insurance Companyof China (PICC) regulated that the liability of earthquake risk can be applied forextension in the projects with insurance amounts more than 300 million RMB, likeenterprises on transportation, energy, electric power, metallurgy, electrommunica-tion, environmental protection, automobiles, spin or finance, and the projects forthe whole insurance industry, especially those involving the agreement between thegovernment and loan of international financial institutions (Xiong and Luo 2003).

    This creates a chance for earthquake insurance development.In recent years, several insurers covered earthquake risk as an extraneous riskof enterprise property insurance, and the premium rate is 10% that of main risks.However, this kind of expansion is strictly limited. In general, insurers do not recom-mend the extraneous risk to applicants; if clients apply for it, the application will beexamined and probably approved strictly. In 2006, the China Continent Property &Casualty Insurance Company Ltd. (CCIC) issued the first independent earthquakeinsurance for buildings in Jiujiang (Recent Development in World Seismology 2006).Earthquakes greater than magnitude 3.8 are covered in this policy. The maximumclaim payment is 80% of housing prices, and the premium is 1% of housing prices.The claim payments are not less than 20% of losses, if three conditions of earth-

    quake magnitude 6 and greater, buildings with wooden structures or stronger, the

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    distance from the epicenter less than 10 km, are all met. Until now, it has not beenshown in any report that this insurance policy worked in the Wenchuan earthquake.

    Since the insurance industry in the country is in the developing stage, premiumincreases every year and the claim rate is low, the profit of insurers is getting higher, soinsurers, to some extent, weakened the sense of reinsurance. Actually, risk will be ac-cumulated quickly as the expansion of business, and the stabilization of insurers, willbe threatened, which means there must be a great demand of a reinsurance market.

    It was prescribed in the former LAW OF INSURANCE that 20% of each busi-ness from insurers must be reinsured to the China Reinsurance Company. Thiswas contributed to the development of reinsurance (Li and Wang 2006). Accord-ing to the WTO commitments, the proportion of mandatory reinsurance shouldbe reduced 5% each year, which means there would be no mandatory reinsurancein 2006. Meanwhile, Swiss Re and Munich Re have entered the market (Tian andWang 2003). In order to retain the market competitive edge, Chinese insurers have

    to expand the coverage. Catastrophe insurance issued already by these transna-tional (re)insurers is in insistent demand. It is also a necessary instrument from theevolution of catastrophe risk management.

    INSURANCE INDUSTRY IN THE WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE

    In this catastrophe, the loss payments are mainly from all levels of governmentsand public endowment. As of September 11, 2008, the disaster relief fund fromthe former was 67.554 billion RMB, in which 60.087 billion was from the centralfinance and 7.467 billion was from the local finance, and the value of disaster reliefmaterials from the latter was 59.348 billion RMB (www.xinhuanet.com, 2008b).

    Facing such a catastrophe, insurers claimed the losses generously. For example,the excluded liability of earthquake risk in the clauses of some life insurances wasignored (www.circ.gov.cn). The claim payoffs of the insurance industry, varying overtime, are shown in Figure 1. One can see there are two segments where the payoffsincrease quickly. One is 717 days after the earthquake, and the other is 3670

    Figure 1. The claim payoffs of the insurance industry to the Wenchuan earth-quake. (Data from the China Insurance Regulatory Commission website,

    2008.)

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    Figure 2. Insured losses in the Wenchuan earthquake. (Data from www.xinhuanet.com, on September 11, 2008, 2008b and http://materials.ins.com.cn,2008.)

    days. The former is for the stabilization of the society, and the latter is for thereconstruction.

    The proportion of insured losses, including property loss and life loss, to totallosses in this earthquake is shown in Figure 2. In this figure, (a) describes theproportions of relief funds to direct economic loss; (b) describes the proportions of

    insured death to total death; and (c) describes the proportions of insured injuriesto total injuries.Since a piece of total losses was insured, the exposure of the insurance industry

    to this event was still small. Both the proportion of property loss to direct economicloss and that of insured injuries to total injuries are less than 1%. This is a harshreminder of enforcing earthquake insurance as an instrument in earthquake riskmanagement, preparing for the next earthquake.

    PREMIUM RATE-MAKING

    Many approaches have been developed to determine earthquake premiums.

    The approach based on engineering seismic risk assessment (Tao and Tao 2004)

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    is adopted to calculate the premium rates for the buildings in the Wenchuanearthquake-stricken area.

    Pure Premium Rate

    According to the property insurance premium rate-making approach (Zhang andZheng 2002), the pure premium rate for buildings is defined as

    Pure premium rate = Expected loss ratio (1.0+ Safety loading), (1)

    where Expected loss ratio is related with structural characters and seismic hazard,and is described as

    ES(RL) =11

    I=6

    5

    k=1

    p(I) pS(Dk|I) RS(Dk), (2)

    where PS(Dk|I) is the conditional probability of Sth type buildings being in kth

    damage state given intensity from primary loss estimation in this article; RS(DK) isthe loss ratio ofSth type buildings being in kth damage state, which is the ratio of therepair cost ofSth type buildings being in kth damage state to the reconstruction cost;

    p(I) is theoccurring possibility of intensityI,andcanbederivedfromP(Ii),theso-called seismic hazard. The latter depends on the regional seismic environment andattenuation relationship of ground motion, and is generally referred to as the seismichazard curve. In nature, earthquake intensity is a sequential classified variable, soP(Ii) is not really a continuous curve. Surely, intensityIcan be substituted withother ground motion parameterY, by this way, the symbol must be substitutedto

    , thenP(Y> y) is a continuous curve.

    According to the Total Probability Theorem, the probability that intensity Igreater than given valueiat a site, from all the earthquakes inith potential sourcearea with magnitude injth magnitude interval, can be calculated from Eq. (3),

    Pij(I i) =

    n=0

    Pij(n) Pi j(I i|n). (3)

    Assuming that earthquakes in future periods are independent of each other,1P(I

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    Letbe the average annual occurring probability. Pand (1 )tet ift, according to the Large Number Law.Pij(n) can be represented in a Poissonmodel as

    Pi j(n) =(

    i j t)n

    n! ei jt, (7)

    where ijis the annual probability of one earthquake occurring in theith potentialsource area with magnitude in thejth magnitude interval.

    Substituting Eq. (7) into Eq. (4), the result is

    Pij(I i) = 1.0 ei jt

    n=0

    [1.0 P(I i|Eij)]n (i j t)

    n/n! = 1.0 ei jtP(Ii|Ei j). (8)

    Then, the probability that intensity I greater than given value i, from all theearthquakes in all potential source areas with magnitudes in all magnitude intervals,

    can be expressed by

    P(I i) = 1.0 e

    i

    ji jtP(Ii|Ei j)

    , (9)

    Figure 3(a). Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of Sichuan, Gansu,

    and Shanxi-PGA (Bureau of Earthquake Damage Protection 2008).

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    Figure 3(b). Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of Sichuan, Gansu,and Shanxi-Characteristic period (Bureau of Earthquake DamageProtection 2008).

    whereP(Ii|Eij) depends on the attenuation relationship and is related with thetype of potential source areas.

    In general,P(I) is calculated by

    P(I) = P(I i) P(I i+ 1). (10)

    In some cases, the P(I) may be less than P(I+1), ifI is low. The reason is that Eq.(10) is exactly correct only under the condition of one earthquake occurring. Deal-ing with the aforementioned procedure, one can find thatP(I i) is contributedby earthquakes in many potential source areas with various magnitudes and variousoccurring times. It means thatP(Ii) consists of not onlyP(I= i) andP(I i+ 1),but also P(I= iand I> i). The later cannot be ignored in earthquake active regionsfor intensities less than VII and long evaluated periods, like 50 or 100 years. So theexceeding probability in short period tcan be calculated firstly from the hazard inlong periodTby

    Pt(I i) = 1 [1 PT(I i)]tT . (11)

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    Figure 4. Seismic hazard curve.

    Obviously, P(I= i and I > i) can be ignored when the period is short. Say,one month is short enough for a general region; for a region with high seismisity,like the Wenchuan-stricken area, it must be shortened to days. Here, the occurringprobability (t= 0.01) can be obtained by

    Pt(I= i) = Pt(I i) Pt(I i+ 1). (12)

    Then, the occurring probability (T= 1) is

    PT(I= i) = 1 [1 Pt(I= i)]Tt . (13)

    Safety loading denotes the volatility of loss ratio data to reduce the instability andtransfer more risk to policyholders. So the safety loading here is defined as the ratioof the deviation of loss ratio to the median. Then, Eq. (1) can be rewritten as

    Pure premium rate = Expected loss ratio+ Deviation. (14)

    Table 1. Damage ratio of RC frame and brick buildings (%).

    Intensity Structure type Collapse Heavy Medium Slight None

    XI+ RC frame 13.06 14.84 22.86 21.01 28.23Brick 29.32 18.77 44.95 6.49 0.47Normalized 21.19 16.81 33.91 13.75 14.35

    VIII RC frame 3.8 19.35 24.7 20.78 31.37Brick 10.81 21.89 23.73 19.26 24.31Normalized 7.31 20.62 24.22 20.02 27.84

    VII RC frame 0.3 1.75 5.99 9.64 82.32Brick 2.95 5.37 10.58 26.4 54.7Normalized 1.63 3.56 8.29 18.02 68.51

    VI RC frame 0 0.3 2.13 5.27 92.3Brick 0.91 1.94 4.32 10.28 82.55

    Normalized 0.46 1.12 3.23 7.78 87.42

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    Figure 5. Exceeding probability curve of loss ratio.

    Deductable

    There are two kinds of deductable in this article. One is absolute deductable,which is a proportion of insured value. Then, the risk taken by insurers is that of theloss over the deductable and pure premium rate is

    Pure premium rate = Expected loss ratio Exceeding probability+ Deviation, (15)

    where Exceeding probability is the probability of loss ratio exceeding the deductable,which can be interpolated on the exceeding probability curve. The loss ratio of theSth type buildingsLS(I), given intensityI, is

    LS(I) =

    5

    k=1

    pS(Dk|I) RS(Dk). (16)

    Then, the exceeding probability curve can be constructed by the exceedingprobabilities from seismic hazard analysis and the loss ratios.

    The other deductible is a proportion of damaged value, which means the insuredloss from a earthquake is shared by insurers and policyholders. Since a part ofinsured loss is taken by policyholders, this part should be deducted from premiums.In this case, the pure premium rate is

    Pure premium rate = Expected loss ratio (1.0 Deductable)+ Deviation. (17)

    Table 2. Earthquake insurance premium rate ().

    Pure premium Premium rate Premium rateDeductable rate (Safety loading 20%) (Safety loading 50%)

    0 1.7532 2.1039 2.62993% 0.4838 0.5806 0.72585% 0.4751 0.5702 0.7127

    10% 0.4591 0.5510 0.688720% 0.4562 0.5475 0.6843

    50% 0.4526 0.5432 0.6790

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    Table 3. Earthquake insurance premium rate ().

    Pure premium Premium rate Premium rateDeductable rate (Safety loading 20%) (Safety loading 50%)

    0 1.7532 2.1039 2.62993% 1.7142 2.0571 2.57135% 1.6882 2.0259 2.5323

    10% 1.6232 1.9478 2.434820% 1.4931 1.7917 2.239750% 1.1029 1.3235 1.6544

    DESIGN PRODUCTIONS

    For reconstruction, the seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of the

    Wenchuan earthquake-stricken as a part of the zonation map of China, was revisedby the Editorial Committee of National Seismic Zonation Map, shown in Figure 3.Some important potential sources in this area were demonstrated and modified,

    and the ground motion parameters of potential sources were adjusted also. So theseismic hazard curve is shown in Figure 4.

    Today, it is more than one year after the earthquake, losses estimation has beenfinished. However, the final report on losses has not been published, so the accuratevulnerability evaluation and details on losses cannot be obtained. Losses estimation(Yuan 2008), adopted here, is listed in Table 1. Then, the exceeding probabilitycurve of losses ratio is constructed and shown in Figure 5.

    Deductable is designed as 0, 3%, 5%, 10%, 20%, or 50%, and safety loading is

    20% or 50% of the pure premium rate. Thus, earthquake insurance premium ratesof buildings in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, including frame, brick andRC, can be calculated from Eq. (15), corresponding to the first kind of deductibles,listed in Table 2. For the second kind of deductibles, premium rate can be obtainedfrom Eq. (17), and listed in Table 3.

    CONCLUSION

    After the Wenchuan earthquake, it is clear that earthquake insurance shouldbe adopted as an instrument in earthquake disaster management. In this article,

    we have discussed the premium rate-making based on seismic hazard analysis andprimary loss estimation from the Wenchuan earthquake. Past experiences suggestthat it is dangerous for the insurance industry to insure such a great catastrophe.In contrast, the capital market can provide (re)insurers with big financing capacity,where insurers usually are offered with specific vehicles to disperse various risks. Forthe management of the next possible devastating earthquake in China, catastropheinsurance derivatives are suggested as supplements of earthquake insurance.

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

    This work was funded by Basic Scientific Research Foundation of Institute of Engi-

    neering Mechanics for Special Operations (No.2006B05), National Nature Science

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    Foundation of China (No.70603025), Earthquake Science Foundation (No.606027),and Heilongjiang Province Nature Science Foundation (No.G2005-13).

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