idmp cee 2nd workshop: activities 2.1 and 2.2 by elena fatulova

Guidelines for Drought Management Plans &

National Consultation dialogues

Activity 2.1 & 2.2

Elena Fatulova 2nd IDMP CEE Workshop Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014

Partners & Outputs

• Aim of Act. 2.1 – to develop Guidelines for Drought Management Plans (DMPs) – the main instrument for implementation of drought policy based on risk management

• 10 CEE countries involved in the activity (BL, CZ, HU, LT, MO, PL, RO, SK, SLO, UA)

• Partners – national GWPs and experts from individual countries

• Final output – Guidelines for DMPs including examples of its application within the region (e.g. Slovak Study report)

• First phase: First draft presented – Hodrusa Hamre Execution of the Slovak case study Development of the Slovak Study Report – March 2014

– completed in accordance with the plan Draft of the Guidelines for DMPs – June 2014

• Second phase: 1 July 2014 - draft of the Guidelines sent for completion

and comments to the involved countries 31 December 2014 – national examples and comments

provided April 2015 – final output – Guidelines for DMPs

Progress Report

Approach - principles

• Conformity with EU drought policy developed within Common Strategy for Implementation of Water Framework Directive – based on drought risk management approach

• Consistency with EU WFD – Drought Management Plan a part of River Basin Management plans

• Focus on the national level

• Harmonization of approaches within the CEE region

Basic documents

General guidelines:

• Drought Management Plan Report Including Agricultural, Drought Indicators and Climate Change (Report 2007)

• Guidelines for National Drought management Policies and Preparedness Plans (Donald A.Wilhite) for the WMO/GWP IDMP

EU policy document:

• A Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water Resources” COM (2012) 673 final

Output, sources Output (Guidelines content): - Description of the generalized procedure for development

of the DMPs based on harmonized approach - Accompanied with the national examples of the key DMP

elements (indicators, thresholds, warning system, organizational structure) in line with EU drought policy

Sources: • Slovak Study report • National experiences – examples of the chosen elements

provided by involved countries during the second phase • Outputs from other activities of the IDM Programme

DMP – main elements

• Indicators and thresholds establishing onset, ending, and severity levels of the exceptional circumstances (prolonged drought) – meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socioeconomic (impact indicators)

• Measures to be taken in each drought phase in order to prevent deterioration of water status and to mitigate negative drought effects

• Organizational framework to deal with drought and subsequent revision and updating of the existing drought management plan

Slovak case study

• Evaluation of the drought event 2011-2012

• Real data from monitoring used

• Partners from water sector and agricultural sector (experts)

• Data from drought impact assessment (e.g. fish mortality, ecological status, wetlands) are missing (information from the Ministry)

• Some stakeholders refused to provide data (e.g. energy production company)

Slovak Study Report

Indicators: Precipitation and air temperature River flow Groundwater level and spring-discharge Soil water balance Thresholds for drought classification: Normal status Pre-alert status Alert status Emergency status

Thresholds - Precipitation

Thresholds - River flow

1. quantile (120 to 80 % of Qmes61-2000 - normal status of water bearing)

2. quantile (80 to 40 % of Qmes61-2000 – subnormal status of water bearing)

3. quantile (less than 40 % of Qmes61-2000- critical value of water bearing status

Thresholds – groundwater level

• Fig. 2 Groundwater monitoring point No. 10, hydrological year 2012

Thresholds – soil water balance

Drought degree Extreme

drought

Severe drought Moderate

drought

Normal drought

Probability interval

[%] ≤ 2% 2.1% to 10% 10.1% to 25% 25.1% to 50%

ASWI interval [–] ≤ –1.8 –1.8 to –1.151 –1.15 to –0.721 -0.72 to 0

Drought degree Extreme

drought

Very severe

drought

Severe drought Normal drought

Probability interval

[%] ≤ 2% 2% to 10% 10.1% to 25% 25.1% to 50%

ASWICUM interval

[–] ≤ –300 –299 to –200 –199 to –100 -99 to 0

Available soil water index

Cumulative available soil water index

Slovak Study Report

Measures:

• organizational – all drought status

• operational – pre-alert, alert, emergency status

• preventive – normal status

- measures for improvement of water governance

- measures focused on increasing of resistance against drought and mitigation of drought adverse impacts

- action plan for science and research drought program

DMP – organizational structure

Uncertainties, gaps

• Drought is not considered as a relevant issue

• No state body has been officially charged with the production of the Drought management plan within the second planning cycle of preparation of RBMPs

• Absence of drought impact indicators

• Monitoring system is not sufficient for running of reliable drought early warning system and has to be upgraded

• Thresholds and early warning system have not been tested

Act. 2.2 National consultation dialogues

First National Consultation dialogues:

• 6 countries (CZ, HU, LT, MO,SK, UA – in 2013

• 4 countries (PO, RO, SLO, BL) – in 2014

General objective - development of DMP:

• To gather the drought experts and representatives from competent authorities

• To inform about the objectives of IDMP

• To discuss the answers from the Questionnaire

Act. 2.2 National consultations Second National Consultation dialogues – in 2014:

General objective – provide input for the Guidelines for Drought management plans:

- Organizational framework – draft of drought working group (schematic) and its mandate

- Early warning system – short information on indicators and thresholds, drought stages

- Impact assessment – impact information system

- Creation of drought hazard and Water Scarcity Risk maps

Plans - continuation • To develop the first draft of the Guidelines – activity leader – 30 June 2014 on the base:

- Slovak study report

- Results of demonstration projects

- Communication with GWPs partners – comments to Guidelines contents, answers on specific questions – terminology, early warning system (daily base?)

• To send the draft of the Guidelines to the involved partners (GWPs) for comments and providing national experiences for the chosen DMP elements – 1 July 2014

Plans - continuation • To organize National Consultation dialogues (after June

2014) with the aim to discus the draft of the Guidelines and provide national experiences in line with EU strategy: to develop of organizational structure for drought

management (all partners and sector identified in the questionnaire) – competent authority, working group (example provided in Slovak Study Report)

to provide national examples of development of the key elements of DMP – Annex of the Guidelines

• New template for NCD will be prepared – end of June • To provide comments and input for Guidelines – 31

December 2014

•

Questions

• How could be defined meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, socioeconomic drought referring to working definition: „Drought is a natural phenomenon. It is a temporary, negative and severe deviation along a significant time period and over a large region from average precipitation values (a rainfall deficit), which might lead to meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socioeconomic drought, depending on its severity and duration“

• How often should be assessment of indicators for early warnings updated - daily, weekly?

Contact: Elena Fatulova, GWP Slovakia elena.fatulova@gmail.com

Thank you for your attention