idmp cee 2nd workshop: activity 5.2 by galia bardarska

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Assessment of drought impact on forest ecosystem Activity 5.2 Galia Bardarska 2nd IDMP CEE Workshop Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014

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Page 1: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Assessment of drought impact on forest ecosystem

Activity 5.2

Galia Bardarska 2nd IDMP CEE Workshop Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014

Page 2: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Partners & Outputs

Bulgaria, Lithuania, Slovenia and Ukraine

Forests are significantly dependent on water regime and, in turn,

have a significant impact on the water regime of territories.

Development a good practice for forest

management and protection in drought periods

Page 3: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

3

Border of area

Forest-Steppe

Mixed Forests

Steppe

Area Bulgaria Lithuania Slovenia Ukraine

(pilot

area) Total

Land

area,

1000 ha 11100 6530 2027 8193 27850

Forest

area,

1000 ha 3927 2160 1253 1095 8435

Project pilot area in

north-east part of

Ukraine

Sumy

Kharkiv Lugansk

GWP IDMP meeting,

Ljubljana,8-9.04.2014

Page 4: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Milestone 2: Establishment of methodology for assessment of drought

impact on forest ecosystems in 2050 and 2070

Bulgaria: Vesselin Alexandrov and Ivan Raev

Lithuania: Dontas Valiukas and Gintautas Stankunavicius

Slovenia: Andrej Kobler and Lado Kutnar

Ukraine: Igor Buksha, Maksym Buksha, Tatiana Pyvovar

Progress Report

Training Workshop: IDMP CEE, Activity 5.2,

Slovenian Forestry Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia,

14 – 15 November 2013

Page 5: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

During the workshop in Ljubljana the

participants agreed on the opportunity to

use the WorldClim dataset :

http://www.worldclim.org/node/1

It was recommended to use the HadGEM2-AO (HD) climate

change scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s.

The 2100 should be dropped out of the project study

because:

• is far away from the recent time;

• the dataset is already developed for the 2070s;

• the dataset is already with high spatial resolution (less

than 1 km);

• there is no sense to develop another time period i.e. 2100

instead of 2070s as it is time and costs consuming.

Page 6: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Surfer GIS

Page 7: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

ARCGIS

Page 8: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Monthly temperature August 1961-1990

Page 9: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Mean annual temperature 1961-1990

Page 10: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Zoom – Bulgaria Mean annual temperature 1961-1990

Page 11: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Climate change scenarios, annual temperature 2050 - scenario1

Page 12: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

T2

Climate change scenarios, annual temperature 2050 – scenario 2

Page 13: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Diagram of the Holdridge Classification Scheme (Holdridge, 1967)

The primary approach for evaluating

the potential impacts of drought on

forest ecosystems will include the use

of the Holdridge life zone

classification model.

Page 14: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

For the quantitative assessment of the drought

impacts, the values of the drought index after

De Martonne will be implemented.

J = P/(T+10) (1)

where: P and T are the annual precipitation and air

temperature

Page 15: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

De Martonne index (1961-1990),

Bulgaria

De Martonne index 2050,

Bulgaria

•Zone A - index with value under 20 (in red color on the map): lasting deficit in

moistening, which leads to destruction of the forest ecosystems;

•Zone B - index from 21 to 30 (in yellow color on the map): lasting

disturbances in the moistening;

•Zone C - index from 31 to 40 (in green color on the map): disturbances in the

moistening in some years;

•Zone D - index from 41 to 70 (in blue color on the map): optimal conditions in

the moistening;

•Zone E - index above 70 (in purple color on the map): over moistening.

Page 16: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

1960-1990 Holdridge

Life Zones in Ukraine

16

Page 17: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Pilot area 2050_HD26 Holdridge Life Zones

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Page 18: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Pilot area 2070_HD26

Holdridge Life Zones

18

Page 19: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Pilot area 2050_HD45 Holdridge

Life Zones

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Page 20: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

Pilot area 2070_HD45

Holdridge Life Zones

20

Page 21: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

After determination of vulnerability

zones of the forest ecosystems and

forest life zones in drought, the

mitigation and adaptation measures

will be developed for each zone.

Main outputs:

1. Development of action plans

for 2050 and 2070

2. Contribution at Drought

Guidelines of IDMP

Page 22: IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Activity 5.2 by Galia Bardarska

• Determination of vulnerability zones and some measures to October 2014

• No change of the plan instead of 2100 with 2070

• PRG remarks will be taken into account in the process of team’s work as well as at final report of the case study

Plans