Activity 5.4

Drought Risk Management Scheme:

a decision support system

Tamara Tokarczyk

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management

National Research Institute

POLAND

1st IDMP CEE Workshop, 16th October 2013, Slovakia

The main objective

Providing multi-sectoral and international perspective on:

• visualization and communication drought hazard (the probability of occurrence

of different phases of droughts),

• impacts of drought including socio-economic and environmental aspects,

• functional risk maps for various end-users and decision makers,

in order to develop an integrated framework for drought risk management.

The Activity 5.4 concentrate on promoting standard approaches to vulnerability

and impact assessment.

Contributing organizations and experts

POLAND

• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute, Wroclaw Branch (IMGW-PIB) Tamara Tokarczyk Wiwiana Szalińska

• Institute of Technology and Life Sciences (ITP) Leszek Łabędzki

LITHUANIA

• Vilnus University, Department of Hydrology and Climatology (UV) Gintautas Stankūnavičius, Edvinas Stonevičius

ROMANIA

• National Meteorological Administaration (NMA) Elena Mateescu

• National Research and Development Institute for Soil-Agrochemistry and Environment (ICPA), Bucuresti Catalin Simota

Outputs and milestones

1. Measures for the assessment of susceptibility and vulnerability to drought

• 1.1. Identification of the national measures for drought susceptibility (drought hazard) assessment.

• 1.2. Identification of the national measures for drought vulnerability assessment

2. Methods for the drought hazard and risk management

• 2.1. Developing methodology for drought hazard mapping with the use of measures for drought susceptibility assessment

• 2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought assessment based on available GIS information including population map, type of economic activity map and protected area to showing the potential adverse consequences

3. Framework for Drought Risk Management Scheme

• 3.1. Drought Risk Management Scheme for Odra River

• 3.2. Recommendations for operational support system in drought risk management

Partner‘s tasks

• Developing framework for drought risk mapping scheme on international

level,

• Demonstrating its application for different drought context and regions,

• Estimating meteorological and hydrological drought indices for study basin

in Poland

• Developing thematic maps for meteorological and hydrological risk

presentations

• Developing methodology for meteorological and hydrological drought

hazard, susceptibility and vulnerability mapping for a river basin

• Providing information for agricultural drought risk management in Poland,

• Estimating agricultural drought indices for study basin in Poland,

• Developing thematic maps for agricultural risk presentations

• Providing information on national context for drought risk mapping scheme,

• Developing thematic maps for meteorological and hydrological drought risk

presentation,

• Developing methodology for hydrological drought hazard, susceptibility and

vulnerability mapping for a river basin,

• Harmonization of the methodologies for meteorological, agricultural and

hydrological drought map generation

• Providing information on national context for drought risk mapping,

• Developing guidelines for drought indicators application including EU

resolution and national specifications,

• Mapping climatologically characteristics (average summer precipitation,

heat waves, droughts, crop sensitivity, soil moisture, etc.)

• Providing information for agricultural drought risk management in Romania,

• Developing thematic maps for agricultural drought risk presentations,

• Developing methodology for agricultural drought hazard, susceptibility and

vulnerability mapping for a river basin.

Partner‘s tasks

1.1 30.12.2013

1.2 30.12.2013

2.1 30.06.2014

2.2 30.06.2014

3.1 30.12.2013

3.2 15.03.2015

Schedule of milestones

Ongoing work

Milestone 1.1. Identification of the national measures for drought susceptibility (drought

hazard) assessment

• inventory of national data resource available for drought hazard assessment: climate, water,

crop and soil parameters

• assessment of the adequacy of the existing monitoring networks (meteorological,

hydrological, ecological, remote sensing) for drought monitoring on a regular basis

• identification and evaluation of existing national comprehensive, integrated drought

monitoring systems along with the data delivery and information dissemination to the user

community

• existing, nationally applied indicators and indices, GIS methods to characterize the

magnitude, spatial extend, trends and drought duration

• examination of current national arrangements and procedures for coordinating the collection

and analysis of meteorological, hydrological and ecological data, data sharing and their

applications for drought monitoring, preparedness, mitigation and response.

Ongoing work

Milestone 1.2. Identification of the national measures for drought vulnerability

assessment (drought impact)

• Identification of national vulnerable economic sectors:

• Existing, nationally applied indicators and indices to characterize drought impacts: social,

economy and environmental parameters, revision of national drought impact records

• Elicit key national stakeholders and their needs for information on drought risk on global,

regional and local levels and specific requirements for time sensitive decisions.

a) rain-fed agricultural production

b) irrigated agricultural production

c) livestock production

d) water quality and available resources

e) environment

f) transportation

g) heath

h) tourism and recreation

i) energy

j) society

k) education

l) cost of emergency response programs

Ongoing work

reports graphs warnings maps

SMOK real-time measurements,

operational database

CBDH meteorological & hydrological

observations databse

SH

data acquisition & management, analysis routines, models,

forecasts

drought indicies estimation

products generation

drought hazard prediction

meteorological drought hazard level

climatological vulnerability streamflow vulnerability

EDI FDC SPI SRI

hydrological drought hazard level

developed components existing infrastructure

Pd – daily precipitation, Pm – monthly precipitation, PF – precipitation forecast

Dd – daily discharges, Dm – monthly precipitation, DF – discharge forecast

Pd Dd Pm Dm

DF PF

vulnerability assessment

SPI-SRI

class

SOK Customer Service System

Milestone 3.1. Drought Risk Management Scheme for Odra River

Implementation plan

OUTPUT 2. Methods for the drought hazard and risk management

Milestone 2.1. Developing methodology for drought hazard mapping with the use of

measures for drought susceptibility assessment. • State of the art, ongoing research to characterize and visualize the magnitude, spatial extend and

trends, duration and potential impact of droughts on social, environmental and economic aspects of

the country/region

• Capability of the users and policy makers to apply and disseminate the drought indices used and the

validation of their appliance

• Recommendation on standards for drought product visualization

Milestone 2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought assessment based on available

GIS information including population map, type of economic activity map and protected area to

showing the potential adverse consequences.

• Development of risk assessment profiles showing physical, social economic and environmental

pressure on a community for global, regional and local scale. Providing regional examples of who and

what is at drought risk and why.

• Development of criteria to weight the importance of drought impacts and vulnerability factors

• Development of common terminology and methodologies to assess drought vulnerability to facilitate

the assessment of drought risk across the CEE region at multiple spatial scales

• Recommendation on standards for data and products sharing with all sectors concerned with the

impact of drought

Thank for your attention!