© kantar worldpanel a summary update of the irish grocery market to 3 rd october 2010
TRANSCRIPT
© Kantar Worldpanel
A Summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market to 3rd October
2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Performance Summary
– The total grocery market continues to come out of decline with value growth for the latest 12 weeks now at 1.2%. With the number of sub-markets in growth steadily increasing, overall market recovery is becoming more evident.
– Shopper spend is not rising in line with inflation in the latest period. Value growth remains flat over the latest month.
– Frozen food is driving the volume (pack) growth while the value growth is driven by the household sector.
2
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 52 & 12 WEEKS ENDINGROI GROCERY MARKET COMES OUT OF DECLINE ON A 12 WEEK BASIS
9,367,539 9,263,4398,850,175
2,107,577 1,998,193 2,022,918
52 w/e 05Oct 08
52 w/e 04Oct 09
52 w/e 03Oct 10
12 w/e 05Oct 08
12 w/e 04Oct 09
12 w/e 03Oct 10
52 we €000’s
-1.1% -4.5%
12 we €000’s
-5.2% 1.2%
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING (PACKS)? 52 & 12 WEEKS ENDING 03th OCT 2010 – VOLUME GROWTH
4,889,141 5,160,083 5,168,763
1,134,797 1,155,382 1,173,462
52 w/e 05Oct 08
52 w/e 04Oct 09
52 w/e 03Oct 10
12 w/e 05Oct 08
12 w/e 04Oct 09
12 w/e 03Oct 10
52 we €000’s
+5.5% +0.2%
12 we €000’s
+1.8% 1.6%
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 4 W/E
705,340
660,949
674,950
4 w/e 05 OCT 08 4 w/e 04 OCT 09 4 w/e 03 OCT 10
4 we €000’s
-6.3%+2.1%
© Kantar Worldpanel
6
4 W/E VALUE GROWTH OF 2.1% AS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET COMES OUT OF DECLINE OVER SHORTHER PERIODS
% Value Growth in Total Grocery
-5.2 -5.5-6.3
-6.8
-7.8 -7.6 -7.6-6.9
-6.5
-5.2
-3.5
-1.8
0.1
1.2
-6.3
-4.9
-7.6 -7.5-8.4
-6.9-7.5
-6.4-5.6
-3.6
-1.2-0.5
2.1 2.1
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
12w/e04Oct09
12w/e01
Nov09
12w/e29
Nov09
12w/e27Dec09
12w/e24Jan10
12w/e21Feb10
12w/e21
Mar10
12w/e18Apr10
12w/e16
May10
12w/e13Jun10
12w/e
11 Jul10
12w/e08
Aug10
12w/e05Sep10
12w/e03Oct10
12 w/e % chg4 w/e % chg
© Kantar Worldpanel
WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING MARKET GROWTH? 12 W/E – ALCOHOL IS THE ONLY MARKET STILL IN DECLINE ON A 12 W/E BASIS WITH HOUSEHOLD DRIVING THE VALUE GROWTH
8.0 7.51.3 1.37.0 7.24.3 4.3
26.1 26.5
48.3 48.2
4.9 5
12 w/e 04 Oct 09 12 w/e 03 Oct 10
Value share Value change
1.2
-6.0
2.0
4.0
1.7
2.6
1.2
1.7
Total Grocery
Alcohol
Healthcare
Household & Petcare
Toiletries
Ambient Food
Fresh & Chilled Food
Frozen Food
© Kantar Worldpanel
WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING MARKET PACK GROWTH? 12 W/E 03 OCT 10 – FROZEN FOOD DRIVING VOLUME GROWTH FOR THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET
2.5 2.50.5 0.57.1 7.22.7 2.7
28.7 27.9
54.9 55.4
3.6 3.7
12 w/e 04 Oct 09 12 w/e 03 Oct 10
Volume share (Pack) Volume (Pack) change
1.6
3.1
-4.4
2.6
2.5
-0.9
2.5
4.4
Total Grocery
Alcohol
Healthcare
Household & Petcare
Toiletries
Ambient Food
Fresh & Chilled Food
Frozen Food
© Kantar Worldpanel
PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY LEVELS OFF AT 17% OF ALL GROCERY SALES GOING THROUGH ON DEAL. THE LOWEST PROMOTIONAL LEVELS IN TWO YEARS HELPS TO DRIVE THE VALUE GROWTH WITHIN THE MARKET
19.520.3 20.3 20.1
19.7 19.5 19.820.2 20.0
19.519.1 19.0
18.519.0 19.1
19.7 19.519.1
18.4 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.617.0 17.0
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
12 w
/e 0
5 O
ct 0
8
12 w
/e 0
2 N
ov 0
8
12 w
/e 3
0 N
ov 0
8
12 w
/e 2
8 D
ec 0
8
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 w
/e 2
2 Fe
b 09
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
9
12 w
/e 1
9 Ap
r 09
12 w
/e 1
7 M
ay 0
9
12 w
/e 1
4 Ju
n 09
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 0
9 Au
g 09
12 w
/e 0
6 Se
p 09
12 w
/e 0
4 O
ct 0
912
w/e
01
Nov
09
12 w
/e 2
9 N
ov 0
9
12 w
/e 2
7 D
ec 0
9
12 w
/e 2
4 Ja
n 10
12 w
/e 2
1 Fe
b 10
12 w
/e 2
1 M
ar 1
0
12 w
/e 1
8 Ap
r 10
12 w
/e 1
6 M
ay 1
0
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 10
12 w
/e 1
1 Ju
l 10
12 w
/e 0
8 Au
g 10
12 w
/e 0
5 Se
p 10
12 w
/e 0
3 O
ct 1
0
9
% Sold on Deal in Total Grocery, € Value Sales
© Kantar Worldpanel
% PACK SALES SOLD ON DEAL
15.9
17.216.6
16.215.7
16.3
17.2 17.2 17.0 16.716.2
15.614.8
15.3 15.616.0 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.2
15.6 15.5 15.515.0
14.514.0 13.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
12 w
/e 0
5 O
ct 0
8
12 w
/e 0
2 N
ov 0
8
12 w
/e 3
0 N
ov 0
8
12 w
/e 2
8 D
ec 0
8
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 w
/e 2
2 Fe
b 09
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
9
12 w
/e 1
9 Ap
r 09
12 w
/e 1
7 M
ay 0
9
12 w
/e 1
4 Ju
n 09
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 0
9 Au
g 09
12 w
/e 0
6 Se
p 09
12 w
/e 0
4 O
ct 0
912
w/e
01
Nov
09
12 w
/e 2
9 N
ov 0
9
12 w
/e 2
7 D
ec 0
9
12 w
/e 2
4 Ja
n 10
12 w
/e 2
1 Fe
b 10
12 w
/e 2
1 M
ar 1
0
12 w
/e 1
8 Ap
r 10
12 w
/e 1
6 M
ay 1
0
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 10
12 w
/e 1
1 Ju
l 10
12 w
/e 0
8 Au
g 10
12 w
/e 0
5 Se
p 10
12 w
/e 0
3 O
ct 1
0
10
% Sold on Deal in Total Grocery,
© Kantar Worldpanel
8.1
6.1
0.9
6.9
8.4
1
6.4
7.8
1
Volume mechanics Money Off Other Offer
52 w/e 05 Oct 08 52 w/e 04 Oct 09 52 w/e 03 Oct 10
HOW HAVE THE PROMOTIONAL MECHANICS CHANGED? MONEY OFF IS THE MOST POPULAR PROMOTION MECHANIC BUT THE TOTAL ON OFFER DECLINES THIS YEAR
% volume on deal type
© Kantar Worldpanel
PRIVATE LABELThe average shopper spent €1,827 on Private Label products this year
Private Label products featured in 66% of all shopping trips
In the latest year Private Label products were worth a total of €2,9bn
52 w/e 05 Sep10
There are currently 30,730 Private Label SKUs in the ROI market, +27% more than in 2008
© Kantar Worldpanel
Private label has stabilised at a third of the market share30
.8
30.9
31
30.4 30
.9 31.1
32.3
32.2
32.2 32.4 32
.8 33
33.3
33.1
32.9
32.4
32
32.6 33
33.5
33.2
32.9
33 32.9
32.9
32.8
32.9
32.6
33.5 33
.8 34.1
33.3
33.1
33.1
33.2 33
.5 33.8 34
.5 34.7
34.8
34.5
34.3
34.2
34 34.2
34.3 34
.7 35 35.1
34.9
34.5
34.2
34 34.2
12 w
/e 0
5 O
ct 0
8
12 w
/e 0
2 N
ov 0
8
12 w
/e 3
0 N
ov 0
8
12 w
/e 2
8 D
ec 0
8
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 w
/e 2
2 Fe
b 09
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
9
12 w
/e 1
9 Ap
r 09
12 w
/e 1
7 M
ay 0
9
12 w
/e 1
4 Ju
n 09
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 0
9 Au
g 09
12 w
/e 0
6 Se
p 09
12 w
/e 0
4 O
ct 0
9
12 w
/e 0
1 N
ov 0
9
12 w
/e 2
9 N
ov 0
9
12 w
/e 2
7 D
ec 0
9
12 w
/e 2
4 Ja
n 10
12 w
/e 2
1 Fe
b 10
12 w
/e 2
1 M
ar 1
0
12 w
/e 1
8 Ap
r 10
12 w
/e 1
6 M
ay 1
0
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 10
12 w
/e 1
1 Ju
l 10
12 w
/e 0
8 Au
g 10
12 w
/e 0
5 Se
p 10
12 w
/e 0
3 O
ct 1
0
% Value share
% Packs share
13
Private Label Share of Grocery
© Kantar Worldpanel
PRIVATE LABEL HAS GROWN SHARE STEADILY OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS
16.2 17.522.2
25.628.2 29.3 29.9 30.7 32.6 32.8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 52 w/e 05Sep 10
Private Label Share of Spend
46.3%46.8%46.4%GB Equivalent 46.5%
PL Levelling off?
© Kantar Worldpanel
15
Total Grocery– Key Dynamics to 03 October 2010
less frequently
?
fewer categories?
reduced quantity?
Buy less?
different retailer?
cheaperproducts?
more promotions?
Pay less?
Con
trib
utio
ns t
o C
hang
e %
© Kantar Worldpanel
% Markets in Growth vs Decline
16
© Kantar Worldpanel
11
69 7062
54
19
-5+ 0 to -5 0 to +2.5 2.5 to 5 +5 to +10 10+
Inflation Bands
Nu
mb
er
of
Ma
rke
ts in
ea
ch
Infl
ati
on
Ba
nd
17
We now have more categories with prices going up
80 Categories WithDeflation 205 Categories With Inflation
05 September 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Grocery evolution – Inflation and shopper reactionAlthough inflation continues to rise, shopper spend remains flat. Household spending is not in line with rising inflation.
1812 w/e 03 Oct 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
19
So what is the effect on shopper behaviour?
No of Trips per Household
58.2 56.8
12 w/e 04 Oct 09 12 w/e 03 Oct 10
Spend per Trip
€21.70 €21.80
12 w/e 04 Oct 09 12 w/e 03 Oct 10
Average Spend per Household
€1,265
€1,239
12 w/e 04 Oct 09 12 w/e 03 Oct 10
People aren’t shopping around as much this quarter and spend less vs. this time last year.
2008 2010
Shop 241 Times Shop 250 Times
-10%
-13%
-9%
+7%
+4%
Within 6.5 Different Stores Within 7 Different Stores
Full Store Trolley Missions Top Up Baskets
Spend €25.6 Each Time Spend €22.3 Each Time
Adding to €6,172 on Groceries Adding to €5,572 on Groceries
© Kantar Worldpanel
The number of markets where shoppers are choosing more expensive or non-promoted products has dropped slightly this quarter.
4347
40 4237 36 35 33 31 30
43
26 28 25 26 25 24 26 27 2833 30 27 28 31
3642 39
43
3539
4740 38
12 w
/e 2
4 Fe
b 08
12 w
/e M
ar 0
812
w/e
20
Apr 0
812
w/e
18
May
08
12 w
/e 1
5 Ju
n 08
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 08
12 w
/e 1
0 Au
g 08
12 w
/e 0
7 Se
p 08
12 w
/e 0
5 O
ct 0
812
w/e
02
Nov
08
12 w
/e 3
0 N
ov 0
812
w/e
28
Dec
08
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 w
/e 2
2 Fe
b 09
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
912
w/e
19
Apr 0
912
w/e
17
May
09
12 w
/e 1
4 Ju
n 09
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 0
9 Au
g 09
12 w
/e 6
Sep
09
12 w
/e 4
Oct
09
12 w
/e 0
1 N
ov 0
912
w/e
29
Nov
09
12 w
/e 2
7 D
ec 0
912
w/e
25
Jan
1012
w/e
21
Feb
10
12 w
/e 2
1 M
ar 1
0 12
w/e
18
Apri
l 10
12 w
/e 1
6 M
ay 1
012
w/e
13
June
10
12 w
/e 1
1 Ju
ly 1
012
w/e
8 A
ug 1
012
w/e
05
Sept
10
12 w
/e 0
3 O
ct 1
0
% of markets where shoppers are trading up
21
© Kantar Worldpanel
22
Total Grocery Packs Growth by Price BrandConsumers continue to opt for lower priced products
Growth in RST sales (Packs)
Change in sales Share of sales
12 w/e 03 Oct 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
ALCOHOL IS THE ONLY MARKET STILL IN DECLINE OVER ALL PERIODS. TOILETRIES AND AMBIENT FOOD ARE SHOWING STRONG GROWTH IN THE LATEST 4WEEKS
23
-4.5 -5.3-4.0
-5.7-7.9
-2.8-4.6
-5.8
1.2
-6
24
1.7 2.61.2 1.72.1
-1.8
1.7
5.74
2 1.1
TotalGrocery
Alcohol Healthcare Household& Petcare
Toiletries AmbientFood
Fresh &ChilledFood
FrozenFood
52 w/e Change 12 w/e Change 4 w/e Change
% Value Change
© Kantar Worldpanel
DISCOUNTER OVERVIEW - SUMMARY– Discounters continue to grow. In the last ten years they have managed acquire 9.6% of value share, and 13.4% of volume.
– Discounters have attracted 1,351,185 households over the last year
– Footfall for the discounters is increasing by over 400 visits per week. Consumers are becoming more loyal and return to the discounters every ten days.
– Average basket size is €19.00, dropping slightly this period.
– Yearly growth for the discounters is driven by Alcohol and fresh and chilled.
Discounters continue growth through store openings. Combined, Aldi and Lidl currently have 195 stores
© Kantar Worldpanel
Brief Overview of UK Market
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery evolution – Inflation and shopper reactionWe are seeing inflation rate above average household spend for the first time this year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
804
805
806
807
808
808
809
810
811
812
813
901
902
903
904
905
906
907
908
909
910
911
912
913
1001
1002
1003
1004
1005
1006
1007
1008
1009
1010
1011
Inflation HH Spend change
2612 w/e 03 Oct 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Total Grocery Packs Growth by Price BrandPremium products are driving growth in the UK
24
21
34
12
9
% Packs
SuperPremium
Premium
Good
Standard
Budget
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
1.5
-0.3
1.1
2.3
1.6
4.7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
AllPurchasing
Budget(Median -
75%)
Standard(Median -
25%)
Good(Medianprice)
Premium(Median+25%)
Super Prem(Median+75%)
Change in sales Share of sales
12 w/e 03 Oct 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery update to 03rd Oct 2010
–As expected, inflation has increased again to 3.0 and we can expect this to continue until the end of the year.
–Average price per pack continues to rise with inflation.
–Majority of retailers are in growth.
–Promotional activity is the main factor used by households to reduce their spending.