© kantar worldpanel irish grocery market review – period ending - 25 th dec 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel

IRISH GROCERY MARKET REVIEW– Period ending - 25th Dec 2011


OVERVIEW

Market Overview•The annual market sales are ahead of last year, with growth of +0.5% year-on-year. The food market is showing stronger growth (0.9% year on year) than the non-food market.

•Over the shorter term, market value has increased by +1% as shoppers buy more volume despite price inflation, and compensate by purchasing on offer and trading down to cheaper lines.

•Consumers are making more shopping trips, but reducing their average spend per trip.


Key themes in the marketplace

Stability

Inflation

Trading DownSmaller Trips

Store Choice


The period 2001 to 2008 saw average growth of 7% per annum and overall +58% over the whole period

€5.9€6.3

€6.7€7.1

€7.5€8.0

€8.6€9.3

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

+8% +6% +6% +6% +6% +7% +8%

Annu

al v

alue

of t

ake

hom

e gr

ocer

y (€

b)

Data to 52 week ending August


The market value declined in 2010 by 6% but has now stabilised

€5.9€6.3

€6.7€7.1

€7.5€8.0

€8.6€9.3 €9.3

€8.8 €8.9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

+8% +6% +6% +6% +6% +7% +8% +1% -6% +1%

Annu

al v

alue

of t

ake

hom

e gr

ocer

y (€

b)

Data to 52 week ending August


The Irish grocery market remains in growth this period with 12w sales up +1% on this period last year

Total Grocery Market Value Sales and YOY Growth

€9,120,707 €8,867,536 €8,910,759

€2,147,698 €2,188,173 €2,208,986

52 w/e 27Dec 09

52 w/e 26Dec 10

52 w/e 25Dec 11

12 w/e 27Dec 09

12 w/e 26Dec 10

12 w/e 25Dec 11

€000

s

-2.8% +0.5% +1.9% +1.0%


5,218,577 5,165,940 5,148,694

1,233,687 1,225,030 1,228,673

52 w/e 27Dec 09

52 w/e 26Dec 10

52 w/e 25Dec 11

12 w/e 27Dec 09

12 w/e 26Dec 10

12 w/e 25Dec 11

52 we packs 12 we packs

-1.7% +0%

-0.7% 0.3%

-0.3%-1%

w/e 25 Dec 2011

ROI Total Grocery Market Volume Sales and YOY Growth

Volume sales are in decline on a yearly basis while growth remains flat over the shorter term


12w Total Grocery – Sectors Value Shares & YoY % Change

Fresh & Chilled Produce

44%

Ambient Food 31%

Household 7%

Frozen 5%

Alcohol 9%Toiletries 4%

Healthcare 1%

Share of total trolley

Total Trolley

+1.0% value

1

-4.2

-3.2

-2.2

1.4

1

2.7

-0.2

TotalGrocery

Alcohol*

Healthcare

Household

Toiletries

AmbientFood

Fresh &ChilledFrozenFood

Fresh Food, Ambient Food, and Toiletries sectors have driven 12w growth


21.3

14.2

10 8.6

8.4

7.7

7.7

5.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3 2 1.7

1.5

1.3

1.2

1 0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

-0.7 -1

-3 -3-3

.2-3

.7 -4 -4-4

.2-6

.1-8

.7-1

0.1

Chill

ed D

rinks

Chill

ed B

aker

y Pro

duct

s

Swee

t Hom

e Co

okin

g

Froz

en C

onfe

ction

ery

Fres

h Po

ultr

y+Ga

me

Bi

scui

ts

Hot B

ever

ages

Othe

r Toi

letr

ies

Cann

ed G

oods

Frui

t+Ve

g+Sa

lads

Pick

le+T

bl Sc

e+Co

ndim

ent

Take

Hom

e Co

nfec

tione

ry

Oral

-Car

e

Dairy

Pro

duct

s

Chill

ed C

onve

nien

ce

Take

Hom

e So

ft Dr

inks

Fr

esh

Mea

t To

tal G

roce

ryPe

t Car

e

Fres

h Fi

sh

Pack

et B

reak

fast

Bath

room

Toile

trie

s

Froz

en P

repa

red

Food

s Ha

ircar

e

Hous

ehol

d &

Cle

anin

g Prd

s

Savo

ury

Hom

e Co

okin

g

Heal

thca

re

Ambi

ent B

aker

y Pr

oduc

ts

Take

Hom

e Sa

vour

ies

Froz

en Fi

sh

Alco

hol

Froz

en P

oultr

y+Ga

me

Savo

ury

Carb

ohyd

rts+S

ncks

Fr

ozen

Mea

t

12w Total Grocery - value %chg by category

Which categories are performing well?Chilled Drinks has performed best YoY, shoppers also spending more on Sweet Home Cooking, Frozen Confectionary and Fresh Poultry


12w Total Grocery - pack % sold on deal by category

34.2

32.8

31.3

29.1

29.1

28.6

26.7

25.3

23.3

21.5

20.7

20.4

19.4

19.4

19.3

17.8

17.5

17.4

16.8

15.1

14.8

13.4

13.3

13.3

12.6

12.5

11.5

10.9

10.6

9.2

8.9

8.9

8.4

6.8

Bath

room

Toile

trie

s Al

coho

l Ho

t Bev

erag

es

Take

Hom

e So

ft Dr

inks

Take

Hom

e Sa

vour

ies

Take

Hom

e Co

nfec

tione

ry

Bisc

uits

Ch

illed

Drin

ks

Hairc

are

Hous

ehol

d &

Cle

anin

g Prd

s

Froz

en C

onfe

ction

ery

Froz

en Fi

sh

Fres

h Po

ultr

y+Ga

me

Froz

en P

repa

red

Food

s Or

al-C

are

To

tal G

roce

ry

Pick

le+T

bl Sc

e+Co

ndim

ent

Chill

ed C

onve

nien

ce

Froz

en P

oultr

y+Ga

me

Othe

r Toi

letr

ies

Chill

ed B

aker

y Pro

duct

s Fr

esh

Fish

Frui

t+Ve

g+Sa

lads

Cann

ed G

oods

Pe

t Car

e

Pack

et B

reak

fast

Fr

esh

Mea

t

Savo

ury

Hom

e Co

okin

g

Savo

ury

Carb

ohyd

rts+S

ncks

Swee

t Hom

e Co

okin

g Da

iry P

rodu

cts

Ambi

ent B

aker

y Pr

oduc

ts

Heal

thca

re

Froz

en M

eat

Categories with a lot of perceived promotional activityToiletries, Alcohol and Drinks have the highest proportion of packs sold on deal. Staples such as Dairy and Bakery have low promotional levels


Change in value sales – Total grocery sectorsAmbient and Fresh performing well over shorter periods

11

0.5

-4.6 -4.8

1.6 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.21

-4.2 -3.2 -2.2

1.4 12.7

-0.22.2

0.2

-4.6

0.43.1 2.2 3.6

-1

TOTALGROCERY

TOTALALCOHOL

TOTALHEALTHCARE

TOTALHOUSEHOLD

(inc Petcare)

TOTALTOILETRIES

AMBIENTGROCERIES

TOTAL FRESH& CHILLED

FROZEN

52 w/e Change 12 w/e Change 4 w/e Change

% Value Change

w/e 25 Dec 2011


What is the size of the total food market?The total food market shows stronger growth than non food this period

7,271,991 7,099,092 7,165,029

1,673,455 1,720,741 1,753,271

52 w/e 27Dec 09

52 w/e 26Dec 10

52 w/e 25Dec 11

12 w/e 27Dec 09

12 w/e 26Dec 10

12 w/e 25Dec 11

52 we €000’s

-2.4% +0.9%

12 we €000’s

+1.9%+2.8%

w/e 25 Dec 2011


Growth for the Food market – QuarterlyThe food market has shown growth on the same period last year

1.1

0.8

1.92.0

2.8

2.8

1.9

0.5

1.31.2 1.2

1.0

0.4

0.1

1.6

0.5

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

12 w/e28 Nov

10

12 w/e26 Dec

10

12 w/e26 Dec

10

12 w/e23 Jan

11

12 w/e20 Feb

11

12 w/e20 Mar

11

12 w/e17 Apr

11

12 w/e15 May

11

12 w/e12 Jun

11

12 w/e10 Jul 11

12 w/e07 Aug

11

12 w/e04 Sep

11

12 w/e02 Oct

11

12 w/e30 Oct

11

12 w/e27 Nov

11

12 w/e25 Dec

11

Total food

12 w/e 25 Dec 2011


% change year on year – 12 weekly period

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Dec-

08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar

-09

Apr-

09

May

-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug-

09

Sep-

09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec-

09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar

-10

Apr-

10

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec-

10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-

11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec-

11

Inflation % chg

HH Spend % chg

Household Spend change is holding behind inflation, though both are now in positive growth year on year

Change in Household Spend (%) and Inflation Rate


Inflation is evident in over 70% of the markets

% of Markets with like-for-like Price Inflation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%12

w/e

24

Feb

0812

w/e

Mar

08

12 w

/e 2

0 A

pr 0

812

w/e

18

May

08

12 w

/e 1

5 Ju

n 08

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 08

12 w

/e 1

0 A

ug 0

812

w/e

07

Sep

0812

w/e

05

Oct

08

12 w

/e 0

2 N

ov 0

812

w/e

30

Nov

08

12 w

/e 2

8 D

ec 0

812

w/e

25

Jan

0912

w/e

22

Feb

0912

w/e

22

Mar

09

12 w

/e 1

9 A

pr 0

912

w/e

17

May

09

12 w

/e 1

4 Ju

n 09

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

l 09

12 w

/e 0

9 A

ug 0

912

w/e

6 S

ep 0

912

w/e

4 O

ct 0

912

w/e

01

Nov

09

12 w

/e 2

9 N

ov 0

912

w/e

27

Dec

09

12 w

/e 2

5 Ja

n 10

12

w/e

21

Feb

10

12

w/e

21

Mar

10

12

w/e

18

Apr

il 10

12

w/e

16

May

10

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 10

12w

/e 1

1 Ju

ly 1

012

w/e

08

Aug

10

12 w

/e 0

5 Se

pt 1

012

w/e

03

Oct

10

12 w

/e 3

1 O

ct 1

012

w/e

28

Nov

10

12 w

/e 2

6 D

ec 1

012

w/e

23

Jan

1112

w/e

20

Feb

1112

w/e

20

Mar

11

12 w

/e 1

7 A

pr 1

112

w/e

15

May

11

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

n 11

12 w

/e 1

0 Ju

l 11

12 w

/e 0

7 A

ug 1

112

w/e

04

Sep

1112

w/e

02

Oct

11

12 w

/e 3

0 O

ct 1

112

w/e

27

Nov

11

12 w

/e 2

5 D

ec 1

1

15


12w Total Grocery - changes in consumer shopping behaviour

€24.60 €25.00 €24.10

12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10 12 w/e 25 Dec 11

Avg Spend per Trip

Average frequency increased by

+5.0%

Average frequency increased by

+5.0%

Average basket spend reduced by -

3.9%

Average basket spend reduced by -

3.9%

€12 increase in 12w spend per HH

(+0.9%)

€12 increase in 12w spend per HH

(+0.9%)

Irish households are shopping more often this year, but spending less per trip

55.3 53.6 56.3


Trips per Household

€1,360€1,341 €1,353


Avg Spend per Household


12w Total Grocery - Consumer Coping Strategies Trended

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

30th

Dec

07

24th

Feb

08

20th

Apr

08

15th

Jun

08

10th

Aug

08

05th

Oct

08

30th

Nov

08

25th

Jan

09

22nd

Mar

09

17th

May

09

12th

Jul 0

9

06th

Sep

09

01st

Nov

09

27th

Dec

09

21st

Feb

10

18th

Apr

10

13th

June

10

08th

Aug

10

03rd

Oct

10

28th

Nov

10

23rd

Jan

11

20th

Mar

11

15th

May

11

10th

Jul 1

1

04th

Sep

11

30th

Oct

11

25th

Dec

11

Volume per buyer Inflation Store Choice Promotion/Product Change HH Spend Change

Trading down and buying on offer has been a key theme for shoppers since the start of 2008


18

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

42%

43%44%

45%46%

Shoppers are increasingly turning to Non Branded Products – (Private Label and No Brand Name*)

Christmas 2011:

Branded Sales: -1%Private Label: +6%

Non Branded Share Of Grocery Market

*No brand name includes loose fruit & Veg, loose meat etc.


Grocery Packs Growth by branded, no brand name* and Private label tier. Standard and value PL in growth and also non branded products

40

25

22

31

12 w/e 25 Dec 11

Standard PL

Value PL

Premium

No BrandName

Branded

Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)

0.3

-3.3

4.0

-2.8

0.8

2.4

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

TotalMarket

Branded No BrandName

Premium PL

Value PL StandardPL

Share of sales

*No brand name includes loose fruit & Veg, loose meat etc.


31.9

32.6 32

.9 33.2

32.7

32.3 32

.5

32.4 32

.6

32.6 32

.8

32.9 33

.1

32.8 33

.2

33.8

34.7

34.6

34.5

34.5

34.5

34.5

34.6

34.5

34.3

34.1

33.7

12 w

/e 27

Dec

09

12 w

/e 24

Jan

1012

w/e

21 Fe

b 10

12 w

/e 21

Mar

10

12 w

/e 18

Apr

10

12 w

/e 16

May

1012

w/e

13 Ju

n 10

12 w

/e 11

Jul 1

012

w/e

08 A

ug 10

12 w

/e 05

Sep

1012

w/e

03 O

ct 10

12 w

/e 31

Oct

1012

w/e

28 N

ov 10

12 w

/e 26

Dec

10

12 w

/e 23

Jan

1112

w/e

20 Fe

b 11

12 w

/e 20

Mar

11

12 w

/e 17

Apr

11

12 w

/e 15

May

1112

w/e

12 Ju

n 11

12 w

/e 10

Jul 1

112

w/e

07 A

ug 11

12 w

/e 04

Sep

1112

w/e

02 O

ct 11

12 w

/e 30

Oct

1112

w/e

27 N

ov 11

12 w

/e 25

Dec

11

% Value share

Private Label Value Share of Grocery

12w Private Label Value Share of Total Grocery MarketPrivate label value share has dropped back in the run up to Christmas when consumers tend to prefer brands


PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE TOTAL GROCERY SECTORPromotions still remain an important part of the grocery sector – however compared to 2009 Promotions are back

15.915.7

15.3

14.915.1 15.1

15.0

14.6

14.214.0 14.0

14.1

14.414.5

14.714.5

14.314.4 14.4

14.514.3

14.114.3

14.514.7

14.214.0

12 w

/e 2

7 D

ec 0

9

12 w

/e 2

4 Ja

n 10

12 w

/e 2

1 Fe

b 10

12 w

/e 2

1 M

ar 1

0

12 w

/e 1

8 Ap

r 10

12 w

/e 1

6 M

ay 1

0

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 10

12 w

/e 1

1 Ju

l 10

12 w

/e 0

8 Au

g 10

12 w

/e 0

5 Se

p 10

12 w

/e 0

3 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 3

1 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 2

8 N

ov 1

0

12 w

/e 2

6 D

ec 1

0

12 w

/e 2

3 Ja

n 11

12 w

/e 2

0 Fe

b 11

12 w

/e 2

0 M

ar 1

1

12 w

/e 1

7 Ap

r 11

12 w

/e 1

5 M

ay 1

1

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

n 11

12 w

/e 1

0 Ju

l 11

12 w

/e 0

7 Au

g 11

12 w

/e 0

4 Se

p 11

12 w

/e 0

2 O

ct 1

1

12 w

/e 3

0 O

ct 1

1

12 w

/e 2

7 N

ov 1

1

12 w

/e 2

5 D

ec 1

1

21

% Packs Sold on Deal in Total Grocery,


SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR THROUGH CHRISTMAS: SALES (4 week sales)Shoppers cut back spend in Jan as they buy fewer packs, but purchasing picks up again in Feb

+5.8%-14.2%

€672

,146

€669

,142

€804

,767

€652

,442

€657

,961

€672

,931

€686

,396

€828

,665

€643

,890

€672

,428

392,

217

394,

154 44

1,96

4

396,

016

400,

008

386,

299

390,

452 44

6,40

8

380,

336

402,

504

4 w/e 01Nov 09

4 w/e 29Nov 09

4 w/e 27Dec 09

4 w/e 24Jan 10

4 w/e 21Feb 10

4 w/e 31Oct 10

4 w/e 28Nov 10

4 w/e 26Dec 10

4 w/e 23Jan 11

4 w/e 20Feb 11

Weighted 000's EUROS

Weighted RPacks / 000


57 5751

56 59 58 5749

58 58

15 14

15

16 14 15 14

15

14 15

13 1414

13 13 13 13

14

13 13

11 1113

11 10 10 1113

11 10

3 34

3 3 3 35

3 31.4 1.5 3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.5 3.3

1 1

4 w/e 01Nov 09

4 w/e 29Nov 09

4 w/e 27Dec 09

4 w/e 24Jan 10

4 w/e 21Feb 10

4 w/e 31Oct 10

4 w/e 28Nov 10

4 w/e 26Dec 10

4 w/e 23Jan 11

4 w/e 20Feb 11

Over €150

€101 - €150

€51 - €100

€31 - €50

€21 - €30

Less Than €20

SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR THROUGH CHRISTMAS: BASKET SIZE4w share of purchase occasions by trip type Increase in big shops in Dec, but normal habits are quickly resumed after Christmas


SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR THROUGH CHRISTMAS: BRANDED4w value salesBranded goods have a higher share at Christmas, but this drops back in the new year as shoppers look to reduce expenditure

+5.8%-14.2%

57.2 57.859.9

54.555.7 56.4 57.1

59.1

54.1 54.3

10.6 10.08.6

11.3 11.0 10.4 9.7 8.811.1 10.9

32.2 32.2 31.5

34.2 33.3 33.2 33.232.1

34.8 34.9

4 w/e 01Nov 09

4 w/e 29Nov 09

4 w/e 27Dec 09

4 w/e 24Jan 10

4 w/e 21Feb 10

4 w/e 31Oct 10

4 w/e 28Nov 10

4 w/e 26Dec 10

4 w/e 23Jan 11

4 w/e 20Feb 11

Branded No Brand Name Private Label


KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 25TH DEC 2011

UK OVERVIEW


UK Grocery Update to 25 Dec 2011 – Market Trends Summary• Inflation rate has started to fall this period. Although prices are still rising, the

annual rate at which they are rising has fallen for the first time since late 2010.

• The level of trading down has reduced to 1.8% due to the fall in inflation and less promotional discount on offer.

• Retailers have changed their focus to concentrate their efforts on price competitiveness and away from pushing promotions this period.

• With fewer promotions to turn to, consumers are seeking other ways to trade down. The marked increase in frequency & decline in basket size is indicative of consumer shopping around for the best deals. We have also seen the rise in private label sales and decline in branded and also the continued growth in Budget sales.

• Conversely we see a different tranche of consumers wanting to indulge, possibly at the expense of eating out, as demonstrated by the Premium growth, both in brands and retailers.


27

10 yrs 3 yrs 1 yr

+51% -4% +1%

+58% +15% +4%

Grocery Market Sales Performance


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Inflation

HH Spend change

UK Total Grocery - Value & Household Spend % Change Year on YearShoppers in the UK also manage to keep spend below rising inflation


29

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

27

De

c 0

9

24

Ja

n 1

0

21

Fe

b 1

0

21

Ma

r 1

0

18

Ap

r 1

0

16

Ma

y 1

0

13

Ju

n 1

0

11

Ju

l 10

08

Au

g 1

0

05

Se

p 1

0

03

Oct

10

31

Oct

10

28

No

v 1

0

26

De

c 1

0

23

Ja

n 1

1

20

Fe

b 1

1

20

Ma

r 1

1

17

Ap

r 1

1

15

Ma

y 1

1

12

Ju

n 1

1

10

Ju

l 11

07

Au

g 1

1

04

Se

p 1

1

02

Oct

11

30

Oct

11

27

No

v 1

1

25

De

c 1

1

con

trib

utio

n t

o c

ha

ng

e %

pts

Volume change Store Choice Promotions Product Choice

Grocery (RST) 12we 25 Dec 2011 (KWP P1)

Trading–Up and Trading–Down StrategiesShoppers no longer able to save through buying promotions but use trading down product as the main way to save money


UK Grocery Volume (Packs) Growth by Price BandConsumers in the UK continue to trade down to cheaper products. We see an increase in budget products this year which accounts for over a quarter of UK grocery sales

26

22

32

12

9

Share

SuperPremium

Premium

Good

Standard

Budget


0.6

3.6

4.5

-4.9

2.4

1.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

AllPurchases

Budget Standard Good Premium SuperPremium

Change in sales Share of sales

12 W/e 25 Dec 11


Grocery Volume (Packs) Growth by Private Label TierBudget Private label also shows growth while branded products fall back

43.5

2

41.8

6.35

Share

Budget PL

Standard PL

Premium PL

Branded


0.6

-0.7

3.6

0.4

5.8

-2.00E+00

-1.00E+00

0.00E+00

1.00E+00

2.00E+00

3.00E+00

4.00E+00

5.00E+00

6.00E+00

7.00E+00

AllPurchases

Branded PremiumPL

StandardPL

Budget PL

Change in sales Share of sales

12 W/e 25 Dec 11

© kantar worldpanel irish grocery market review – period ending - 25 th dec 2011

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