© kantar worldpanel roi grocery market review data to 10 th june 2012

© Kantar Worldpanel

ROI GROCERY MARKET REVIEWData to 10th June 2012


OVERVIEW

Market Overview•The annual market sales are behind last year, with a decline in market value of 0.1% year-on-year and 0.5% over the shorter term (12 weeks period).

•The grocery market has shown volume growth of 0.6% year on year and by 0.9 over the 12 week period.

•Shoppers are buying more volume but despite price inflation are managing their spend through trading down to own brand, shopping around, shopping to a budget and planning ahead.

•Consumers are making more shopping trips, but the average spend per trip has reduced by 3.7%.

•Private label continues to be important as a method of reducing spend with a market share at 35%.


The Irish grocery market is in decline over 52w period by -0.1% and over the 12w period by -0.5%.

TOTAL IRISH GROCERY MARKET VALUE AND GROWTH 52 &12 W/E

+0.8% -0.1% +0.7% -0.5%

52 & 12 W/e 10 Jun 12


The Irish grocery market is in volume growth over 52w by +0.6% and over 12w by +0.9%.

5,171,677 5,137,585 5,166,913

1,191,057 1,179,478 1,190,464

52 w/e 13 Jun 10

52 w/e 12 Jun 11

52 w/e 10 Jun 12

12 w/e 13 Jun 10

12 w/e 12 Jun 11

12 w/e 10 Jun 12

Pack

s 00

0's

-0.7% +0.6% -1% +0.9%

TOTAL IRISH GROCERY VOLUME SALES AND GROWTH 52 &12 W/E

52 & 12 W/e 10 Jun 12


-2.3%

-7.1%

-0.5%

+0.4%

+0.3%

-3.3%

+0.7%

Ambient Food, Fresh Food and Frozen Food sectors continue to increase sales and win share over the full year

TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR VALUE SHARE & GROWTH 52W/E

52 W/e 10 Jun 12


Fresh & Chilled Produce

47%

Ambient Food 29%

Household 7%

Frozen 5%

Alcohol 7%Toiletries 4%

Healthcare 1%

Share of total trolley

Total Trolley

-0.5% value

Toiletries, Healthcare, and Alcohol sectors have been the driving forces behind value decline

TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR VALUE SHARE & GROWTH 12W/E

12 W/e 10 Jun 12


12w Total Grocery - value %chg by category

ANALYSIS BY CATEGORY - GROWTH/DECLINE?Canned Goods, Hot Beverages, Fresh Fish and Poultry are some of the stronger performing categories this period. Shoppers continue to spend less on Bathroom Toiletries and Chilled Bakery Products year on year

12 W/e 10 Jun 12


% change year on year – 12 week period

CHANGE IN INFLATION RATES AND HOUSEHOLD SPEND 12 W/E Household spend change has decreased to -0.59% year on year

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

80

18

03

80

58

07

80

98

118

13

90

29

04

90

69

08

91

09

12

10

01

10

03

10

05

10

07

10

09

10

111

01

311

02

110

411

06

110

811

10

111

21

20

11

20

31

20

51

20

7

Inflation HH Spend change

12 W/e 10 Jun 12


9

HOW DO SHOPPERS REACT TO INFLATION? – CONSUMER COPING STRATEGIES Shoppers are buying more volume this year. With increased inflation, shoppers are coping by purchasing on promotion and trading down.

12w Total Grocery - consumer coping strategies

12 W/e 10 Jun 12


12w Total Grocery - consumer coping strategies trended

TRENDED VIEW OF CONSUMER COPING STRATEGIES -12 W/EBuying on offer and trading down has been a key theme for shoppers since the start of 2008

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

30th

De

c 0

7

24th

Feb

08

20th

Ap

r 08

15th

Jun

08

10th

Au

g 0

8

05th

Oct

08

30th

No

v 0

8

25th

Jan

09

22nd

Mar

09

17th

May

09

12th

Jul 0

9

06th

Sep

09

01st

Nov

09

27th

De

c 0

9

21st

Fe

b 1

0

18th

Ap

r 10

13th

June

10

08th

Au

g 1

0

03rd

Oct

10

28th

No

v 1

0

23rd

Jan

11

20th

Mar

11

15th

May

11

10th

Jul 1

1

04th

Sep

11

30th

Oct

11

25th

Dec

11

19th

Feb1

2

15th

Apr

12

10th

Jun1

2

Promotion/Product Change Store Choice Inflation Volume per buyer HH Spend Change

12 W/e 10 Jun 12


12w Total Grocery - changes in consumer shopping behaviour

Average frequency increased by +3.2%

Average frequency increased by +3.2%

Average basket spend reduced by -3.7%

Average basket spend reduced by -3.7%

€7 decrease in 12w spend per HH (-0.6%)

€7 decrease in 12w spend per HH (-0.6%)

CHANGES IN CONSUMER SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR 12 W/E Irish households continue to shop more often this year, but spending an average of €0.80 less per trip

12 W/e 10 Jun 12


12

(Under €30) (€100+)

29% 44% 27%2007

35% 45% 20%2012

(€30 - €100)

KANTAR WORLDPANEL: 52 W/E JUNE 2012


BRANDED VALUE SHARE OF TOTAL IRISH GROCERY MARKETBranded goods losing resonance

13KANTAR WORLDPANEL: 52 W/E JUNE 2012


12w Total Grocery – PL value%

PRIVATE LABEL VALUE SHARE OF TOTAL IRISH GROCERYPrivate Label sales are driving market performance, however value share has fallen since March and is now 35%

12 W/e 10 Jun 12

47% in UK


Top 10 growth categories 2007 - 2012

Bakery

Confectionery

Home Cooking

Canned Food

Hot Beverages

Home Baking

Crisps & Snacks

Ambient Carbs

Soft Drinks

Frozen Food

KANTAR WORLDPANEL: 52 W/E MAY 2012


16

UK Market Overview


17

UK GROCERY SUMMARY

— Inflation slowing in UK grocery, household spend also slows, but the market is

still in growth year on year.

— Own label products grow ahead of branded goods, with own label market

share now at 47%.

— Shoppers manage spend by buying into own label and trading down price tier.


18

TOTAL UK MARKET SALES GROWTH 12W/EThe UK market is in 12w/e sales growth of 2% this period while inflation slows to 4.45%.

12 W/e 10 Jun 12


19

UK SHOPPER REACTION Trading down product is key for UK households managing their spend

12 w

/e 2

5 Ja

n 09

12 w

/e 2

2 M

ar 0

9

12 w

/e 1

7 M

ay 0

9

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

l 09

12 w

/e 0

6 Sep

09

12 w

/e 0

1 Nov

09

12 w

/e 2

7 Dec

09

12 w

/e 2

1 Fe

b 10

12 w

/e 1

8 Apr 1

0

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 10

12 w

/e 0

8 Aug 1

0

12 w

/e 0

3 Oct

10

12 w

/e 2

8 Nov

10

12 w

/e 2

3 Ja

n 11

12 w

/e 2

0 M

ar 1

1

12 w

/e 1

5 M

ay 1

1

12 w

/e 1

0 Ju

l 11

12 w

/e 0

4 Sep

11

12 w

/e 3

0 Oct

11

12 w

/e 2

5 Dec

11

12 w

/e 1

9 Fe

b 12

12 w

/e 1

5 Apr 1

2

12 w

/e 1

0 Ju

n 12

Volume Retailer Promotion Product

12 W/e 10 Jun 12


20

UK GROWTH IN GROCERY PACK SALES BY PRICE BANDWith shoppers seeking to manage their spend in the UK, budget products see a strong increase in sales.

28

22

31

11

8

Share

SuperPremium

Premium

Good

Standard

Budget

Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)

0.3

9.4

3.2

-2.9

-8.5-10.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

AllPurchases

Budget Standard Good Premium SuperPremium

Change in sales Share of sales

12 W/e 10 Jun 12


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

03-O

ct-1

0

31-O

ct-1

0

28-N

ov-1

0

26-D

ec-1

0

23-J

an-1

1

20-F

eb-1

1

20-M

ar-1

1

17-A

pr-1

1

15-M

ay-1

1

12-J

un-1

1

10-J

ul-1

1

07-A

ug-1

1

04-S

ep-1

1

02-O

ct-1

1

30-O

ct-1

1

27-N

ov-1

1

25-D

ec-1

1

22-J

an-1

2

19-F

eb-1

2

18-M

ar-1

2

15-A

pr-1

2

13-M

ay-1

2

10-J

un-1

2

Sal

es G

row

th £

%

12 w/e periods

Total Grocers Year-on-Year £% Changes

Total OL

Branded

21

PRIVATE LABEL VS BRANDED YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH – VALUE 12 W/EOwn label also sees growth ahead of branded goods over this year

12 W/e 10 Jun 12

© kantar worldpanel roi grocery market review data to 10 th june 2012

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