update on irish potato market - irish farmers' association · © kantar worldpanel 3 © kantar...
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© Kantar Worldpanel © Kantar Worldpanel
Update on Irish Potato Market Cliona Lynch - Kantar Worldpanel
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Agenda
1. The grocery landscape
2. Potato category importance
3. Potato category performance
4. Addressing market challenges
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3
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Source: KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index
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3.8% 2.9%
-0.6%
0.7%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
90
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Inflation HH Spend change
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Ireland (ROI )
Grocery inflation across 38,000 items
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ROI market growth vs. inflation
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So how are shoppers coping?
Buy less?
+0.2%
Trade Down?
-2%
Store choice?
-1%
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Kantar ROI data to October 2011
% Value Growth
Growth of Discounters
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7
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Premiumisation
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23% of shoppers
choose their store
because they have a
voucher
*KantarWorldpanel LinkQ questionnaire Christmas 2013
Importance of vouchers
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54.4 53.4 52
45.6 46.6 48
2011 2012 2013
+6.7%
-3.0%
VS.
Ambient grocery value share of Private Label
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Growth of Private Label/Own Brands
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Impact of special offers
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Consumers avail of cheaper prices in the battle of the retailers But buy more as a result
Value down
-20%
Volume up
+16%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 4we 5th Jan 2014
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Agenda
1. The grocery landscape
2. Potato category importance
3. Potato category performance
4. Addressing market challenges
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105 million* packs of potatoes sold in 2013
Potatoes are bought once every 0.6 seconds in Irish Retailers
1.58 million households purchasing annually
15
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11%
21%
Occasions Spend
€20 €43.20
11% of all shopping trips feature potatoes. These trips contribute 21% of all sales. When potatoes are included in the basket, these grocery trips are worth more than average highlighting the importance of the potato category to retailers
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% of households buying (penetration)…
From a shopper perspective Potatoes
are the 8th most important category in
store
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Jan 2014
100%
99%
98%
97%
97%
97%
96%
96%
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
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Agenda
1. The grocery landscape
2. Potato category importance
3. Potato category performance
4. Addressing market challenges
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Potato is up yoy as a result of price increases. Volume per trip is taking value out of the market
19
Potatoes | Total Outlets | 52 w/e | 05-Jan-14
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Value sales are up considerably in the last 2 years but still down from 2007/08 levels
20
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Value growth is somewhat negated by on-going volume declines
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Frequency of purchase has recovered since lows of 2011 and is relatively stable over the last two years with shoppers returning often
22
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Despite these more frequent visits to store volumes are still in decline as shoppers cut back on how much they buy
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Moving to smaller packs will have led to cutting back
% volume share
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25
7.5kg <2.5kg
The growth of these two
pack sizes has
decreased volumes in the market
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Total Outlets | 52 w/e | 05-Jan-14
Strongest performance in varieties comes from Roosters – winning new shoppers and frequency.
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In value share Roosters accounted for almost 50% last year with Maris Piper showing strongest growth
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In volume terms Roosters have a clear lead and over 50% of the category sales
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Agenda
1. The grocery landscape
2. Potato category importance
3. Potato category performance
4. Addressing market challenges
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30
Potatoes | 52 w/e | 05-Jan-14
The key challenge across retailers is the decline in volume per trip
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‘Little & Often’ Shopping
2011 54 Trips
2012 56 Trips
2013 57 Trips
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Where are Potatoes losing volumes?
32
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Volumes are down with Older Shoppers and there is an opportunity of €21m if we can grow Youngers Shoppers to the market average
€16.9m €4.1m
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Looking at just those smaller households – Pre and young family purchase more volumes than empty nesters in …
Showing evolving tastes and not just smaller households are the problem for Potato. But remember our Younger shoppers are the families of tomorrow & will carry these tastes with them.
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New varieties and alternatives show an opposite trend as consumer look for new substitutes
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Volume switches show shoppers moving spend v last year
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711k
306k
608k
116k
Pack switch 52we 5th Jan 2014
472k
386k
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Although Potato sees some switching, this is not the main problem. The main problem is the reduction in spend from existing shoppers (shoppers held) not loss to other carbs. Shoppers are just choosing to buy less potatoes
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Where to from here?
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Key take aways
Vital Category
Drive Footfall
Key to high € trips
Choices appeal to modern shopper
Changing &
internationalising tastes
Convenience, pack size & promotion
Building on emotional appeal of potatoes
Growing younger shopper
interest
Education on nutrition & reassurance on health/weight
management
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