wu präsentationsvorlage powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... ·...

26
“The future of corporate financing in an integrating EU financial market” Workshop organised by the European Commission Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), 27 November 2006 New Evidence on the Finance-Growth- Nexus in the enlarged EU Relevance of financial system performance and investigation of the finance-growth link in the enlarged EU Peter Haiss* EuropaInstitut, Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration * The opinions expressed are the authors personal views

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Page 1: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

“The

futu

re o

f cor

pora

te fi

nanc

ing

in a

n in

tegr

atin

g EU

fina

ncia

l mar

ket”

Wor

ksho

p or

gani

sed

by th

e Eu

rope

an C

omm

issi

onD

irect

orat

e G

ener

al fo

r Eco

nom

ic a

nd F

inan

cial

Affa

irs

(DG

EC

FIN

), 27

Nov

embe

r 200

6

New

Evi

denc

eon

the

Fina

nce-

Gro

wth

-N

exus

in th

een

larg

edEU

Rel

evan

ceof

fina

ncia

lsys

tem

per

form

ance

and

inve

stig

atio

nof

the

finan

ce-g

row

thlin

k in

the

enla

rged

EU

Pet

er H

aiss

*E

urop

aIns

titut

, Vie

nna

Uni

vers

ity o

fE

cono

mic

s an

d B

usin

ess

Adm

inis

tratio

n

* The

opi

nion

s ex

pres

sed

are

the

auth

ors�

per

sona

l vie

ws

kaidiha
Stamp
Page 2: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

Res

earc

h P

roje

ct:

The

Fina

nce

-Gro

wth

-N

exus

Sup

port

gran

ted

byth

eO

eNB

Jubi

läum

sfon

ds (p

roje

ct88

68)

isgr

atef

ully

ackn

owle

dged

Team

Man

ager

: P

eter

Hai

ssP

roje

ct A

dvis

or:

Ger

hard

Fin

kTe

am m

embe

rsan

d co

llabo

rato

rs:

Joha

nnes

Bol

zano

, Dav

id B

lum

, Tim

eaE

dele

nyi,

Mar

kus

Elle

r, K

laus

Fe

derm

air,

Bet

tina

Hag

may

r, S

irma

Hris

tofo

rova

, Dag

mar

Inzi

nger

, Her

wig

K

irchn

er, H

ans-

Chr

istia

n M

antle

r, S

tefa

n M

arin

, Sin

dhu

Olim

alay

il,

And

reas

Pic

hler

, Mile

naS

taev

a, K

atha

rina

Ste

iner

, Kje

ll S

ümeg

i, U

lrike

M

oser

-Tho

rwar

tl, M

ina

von

Var

endo

rff-U

glje

sic,

Nas

tjaV

ogl,

Gor

an

Vuk

�ić,

Jen

nife

r Wei

chse

lbra

unN

EX

US

Web

Pag

e:ht

tp://

ww

w2.

wu-

wie

n.ac

.at/e

urop

ains

titut

/ef/n

exus

.htm

l

Page 3: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

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-Wie

npa

ge3

Ove

rvie

w

�Res

earc

h Is

sue

/ Mot

ivat

ion

/ Con

clus

ions

�fea

ture

s of

NM

S/C

EE a

nd S

EE fi

nanc

ial m

arke

ts�F

inan

ce-G

row

th N

exus

�EU

/USA

his

toric

& m

ore

rece

nt d

ata

�CEE

/AC

(cre

dit,

bond

and

sto

ck m

arke

ts)

�the

role

of f

orei

gn b

anks

�b

ond

mar

ket s

ize

�Con

clus

ions

base

don

Hai

ss/F

ink

(200

6)

Page 4: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

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-Wie

npa

ge4

Res

earc

h Is

sue

�con

trib

utio

n of

the

finan

cial

sec

tor t

o gr

owth

?�o

f the

indi

vidu

al s

egm

ents

(cre

dit,

bond

, sto

ck)?

�in

the

New

Mem

ber S

tate

s / A

cces

sion

Cou

ntrie

s?�w

hat i

s th

e ro

le o

f for

eign

ban

ks?

Mot

ivat

ion

�im

port

ance

to E

U e

cono

my

�mix

ed e

mpi

rical

find

ings

�spe

cific

tran

sitio

n si

tuat

ion

in C

EE/S

EEN

MS/

CEE

-8 =

New

EU

Mem

berS

tate

sfr

omC

entr

al a

nd E

aste

rn E

urop

e (C

EE)

AC

-4 =

EU

Acc

essi

onC

ount

ries

(BG

, RO

, HR

, TR

)SE

E-5

= A

L, B

IH, M

C, S

CG

, CG

Page 5: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

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-Wie

npa

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Key

Mes

sage

s

�bo

nd m

arke

ts &

ban

k cr

edit

cont

ribut

ed to

gro

wth

in tr

ansi

tion

�fo

reig

n di

rect

inve

stm

ent i

n C

EE fi

nanc

ial s

ecto

r hel

ped

to

stab

ilize

ban

ks a

nd m

arke

ts a

nd im

prov

ed e

ffici

ency

�re

gion

al a

ppro

ache

s ad

visa

ble

to a

chie

ve c

ritic

al s

ize

of c

apita

l m

arke

ts

�ne

ed fo

r bro

aden

ing

the

finan

ce-g

row

th-n

exus

Page 6: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

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Ove

rvie

w o

n Fi

nanc

ial M

arke

ts in

CEE

�su

cces

sful

ly c

onve

rged

tow

ards

a b

ank-

base

d sy

stem

�st

ruct

ural

diffe

renc

espr

evai

lcom

pare

dto

EU

-15

�low

leve

lof f

inan

cial

inte

rmed

iatio

n

�hig

h, re

tail

& F

X-dr

iven

loan

grow

th

�hig

herf

orei

gnin

volv

emen

tand

con

cent

ratio

n

�im

prov

ing

loan

stru

ctur

e(N

PL, m

atur

ity&

spr

ead)

NPL

= n

on-p

erfo

rmin

glo

ans;

FX

= fo

reig

nex

chan

ge

Page 7: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge7

Ove

rvie

w o

n Fi

nanc

ial M

arke

ts

!lo

wer

finan

cial

inte

rmed

iatio

n

0%20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

ATBEDK

FIFRDEGR

IE

ITLUNLPTESSEUKCYMTCZSKHUPL

SIEELVLTBGROHRTRALBIHMKSCG

CG T

otal

Cre

dit i

n Pe

rcen

t of G

DP

(200

4)

AC-4

aver

age

EU-1

5

aver

age

CEE-

8-av

erag

e

SEE

-5

av

erag

e

2004

in %

GDP

EU-1

5CE

E-8

AC-4

EU-2

5

total

credit

146%

48%

42%

116%

bond

s 14

6%44

%28

%12

9%sto

cks

81%

28%

20%

57%

finan

cial

inter

media

tion

373%

120%

89%

302%

bank

asse

ts*27

2%84

%71

%21

9%* e

xclu

ding

Luxe

mbo

urg

Sour

ce: A

llen,

Bar

irolo

& Ko

wal

ewsk

i (20

05);

BA-C

A (2

005a

, b);

EBR

D(2

005)

; EC

B (2

006)

; Hag

may

r/Hai

ss(2

006)

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©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge8

Ove

rvie

w o

n Fi

nanc

ial M

arke

ts

!(m

ostly

) im

prov

edsh

are

of n

on-p

erfo

rmin

glo

ans

0,00

%

5,00

%

10,0

0%

15,0

0%

20,0

0%

25,0

0%

ATBEDK

FIFRDEGR

IE

ITLUNLPTESSEUKCYMTCZSKHUPL

SIEELVLTBGROHRTRALBIHMKSCG

CG

Non-

Perf

orm

ing

Loan

s in

Per

cent

of T

otal

Loa

ns (E

U-15

/200

1; C

Y/M

T 20

01; C

EE/S

EE 2

004/

2005

)

EU-1

5

aver

age

CEE-

8-av

erag

e

SEE-

5

av

erag

e

AC-4

aver

age

20

04

200

5

Dat

aSo

urce

: EBR

D(2

005,

200

6); B

A-C

A (2

006b

); Br

euss

, Fin

k, H

aiss

(200

5)

Page 9: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge9

Ove

rvie

w o

n fin

anci

al m

arke

ts

!hi

gher

fore

ign

shar

ein

tota

l ban

kas

sets

Dat

aS

ourc

e: E

CB

(200

5, 2

006)

; EBR

D (2

005)

; Alle

n, B

artir

olo,

Kow

alew

ski (

2005

); BA

-CA

(200

6a, b

)

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ATBEDK

FIFRDEGR

IE

ITLUNLPTESSEUKCYMTCZSKHUPL

SIEELVLTBGROHRTRALBIHMKSCG

CG

For

eign

Sha

re in

Tot

al B

ank

Asse

ts (2

004,

200

5)

AC-

3

av

erag

e

EU-1

4

aver

age

(ex

LU)

CEE-

8-av

erag

eS

EE-5

aver

age

20

04

200

5

Page 10: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge10

Ove

rvie

w o

n fin

anci

al m

arke

ts

!hi

gher

bank

ing

mar

ketc

once

ntra

tion

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ATBEDK

FIFRDEGR

IE

ITLUNLPTESSEUKCYMTCZSKHUPL

SIEELVLTBGROHRTRALBIHMKSCG

CG

Sha

re o

f the

Fiv

e La

rges

t Cre

dit I

nstit

utio

ns in

Tot

al A

sset

s in

Per

cent

(CR5

, 200

4)

AC-4

aver

age

EU-1

5

aver

age

CEE

-8-

aver

age

SEE

-5

av

erag

e

Dat

aS

ourc

e: A

llen,

Bar

tirol

o, K

owal

ewsk

i (20

05);

BA-C

A (2

006a

), B

A-C

A (2

006b

); E

BR

D(2

005)

Page 11: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge11

Stru

ctur

al Is

sues

!R

apid

gro

wth

of p

rivat

e se

ctor

cred

it

46

3

17

6

13

3438

3435

33

1517

38

20

14

38

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

EUR- 12

CZSK

HUPL

SIEE

LVLT

BGRO

HRTR

ALBI

HMK

SCG

-10

01020304050

Ban

k cr

edit

to th

e pr

ivat

e se

ctor

, 200

2-20

05

AC

-4

a

ve

rag

e

CE

E-8

a

ve

rag

eS

EE

-4

a

ve

rag

e

Bar

: nom

inal

gro

wth

(cum

ulat

ive,

in %

left

hand

sca

le)

Lin

e: re

al g

row

th (c

ompo

und

annu

al g

row

th ra

te) i

n %

pe

r yea

r, rig

ht h

and

scal

e

Dat

aso

urce

: Mih

alje

k(2

006)

Page 12: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge12

Stru

ctur

al Is

sues

!R

etai

lloa

nsar

eth

em

ajor

gro

wth

driv

er

0,0%

10,0

%

20,0

%

30,0

%

40,0

%

50,0

%

60,0

%

CZSK

HUPL

SIEE

LVLT

BGRO

HRAL

BIH

MKSC

G

Hou

seho

ld c

redi

t in

% o

f non

-gov

ernm

ent c

redi

t(1

999.

200

4)

AC-3

aver

age

CEE-

8

aver

age

SEE-

4

av

erag

e

199

9

2004

Dat

aso

urce

: EB

RD

(200

5)

Page 13: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge13

Stru

ctur

al Is

sues

Dat

aso

urce

: EB

RD

(200

5), B

A-C

A (2

005b

)

!H

igh

shar

eof

fore

ign

curr

ency

(FX)

lend

ing

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

ATCZ

SKHU

PLSI

EELV

LTBG

ROHR

ALBI

HMK

SCG

Fore

ign

curr

ency

loan

s in

% o

f non

-gov

ernm

ent

cred

it (1

999.

200

4, 2

005)

AC-3

a

vera

ge

CEE-

8

aver

a ge

SEE-

4

av

erag

e

200

4

2

005

199

9

Page 14: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge14

!sh

ort-t

erm

loan

sin

SEE

: hig

her,

buts

hrin

king

Stru

ctur

al Is

sues

0,0%

10,0

%

20,0

%

30,0

%

40,0

%

50,0

%

60,0

%

70,0

%

CZSK

PLSI

EELV

LTBG

ROBI

HM

KSC

GM

C

Pri

vate

sec

tor

shor

t-ter

m lo

ans

in p

erce

nt o

f to

tal p

riva

te s

ecto

r lo

ans

(200

3, 2

004)

CEE

-7

aver

age

SEE-

4

av

erag

e

2003

20

04C

G

Dat

aso

urce

: BA

-CA

(200

4a, 2

005b

)

Page 15: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge15

Stru

ctur

al Is

sues

Bank

ing

refo

rm a

nd in

tere

st d

iffer

entia

ls (2

004)

SCG

MC

BIH

AL

HR

RO

BG

LT

LV

EE

SI

PL

HU

SK

CZ

02468101214

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

EBRD

ban

king

ref

orm

inde

x

Interest Rate Spread!

Ref

orm

effo

rts

show

resu

lts

Sou

rce:

Hai

ss (2

006)

follo

win

g K

raft

(200

5)

Page 16: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge16

Nex

us re

sults

for E

U-5

, USA

, JPN

, CH

�Lo

ng ra

nge

time

serie

s st

udie

s (1

951-

2001

ann

ual d

ata)

-G

rang

er c

ausa

lity

of fi

nanc

ial m

arke

ts to

gro

wth

in

sele

cted

cou

ntrie

s on

ly: U

SA

, UK

, DE

, CH

, AT

-bi

late

ral c

ausa

litie

s in

JP

N a

nd N

L-

a po

sitiv

e im

pact

of b

ank

mar

kets

on

grow

th a

t ear

lier s

tage

s of

dev

elop

men

t.

�Sh

ort r

ange

stu

dies

(qua

rter

ly d

ata)

ove

r rec

ent p

erio

ds�

in s

ome

coun

tries

Gra

nger

cau

salit

y of

eco

nom

ic g

row

th to

is

sues

of g

over

nmen

t bon

ds;

-G

rang

er c

ausa

lity

of b

ank

and

corp

orat

e bo

nds

to g

row

th-

over

all g

row

th o

f fin

anci

al in

term

edia

tion

had

eith

er n

o si

gnifi

cant

effe

ct o

n gr

owth

or i

t had

neg

ativ

ely

affe

cted

econ

omic

gro

wth

.

�no

te: b

ond

mar

kets

incl

uded

for t

he fi

rst t

ime!

Sour

ce: F

ink

/ Hai

ss /

Hris

tofo

rova

(200

5); F

ink

/ Hai

ss /

Kirc

hner

/ M

oser

-Tho

rwar

tl(2

005)

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©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge17

EU &

indu

stria

lized

cou

ntrie

s:

-gr

owth

of a

ggre

gate

inte

rmed

iatio

n ei

ther

no

sign

ifica

ntor

a n

egat

ive

effe

ct o

n gr

owth

-si

gnifi

cant

: cap

ital a

ccum

ulat

ion,

edu

catio

n an

d la

bor p

artic

ipat

ion

�EU

acc

essi

on c

ount

ries:

-po

sitiv

e an

d si

gnifi

cant

impa

ct o

f agg

rega

te fi

nanc

ial d

evel

opm

ent

-bo

nds

and

dom

estic

cre

dit t

urne

d ou

t as

impo

rtant

det

erm

inan

t -

stoc

k m

arke

ts a

nd p

rivat

e cr

edit

had

no s

igni

fican

t effe

cts

�EU

str

uctu

ral f

und

coun

trie

s:-

posi

tive

influ

ence

of b

ond

mar

kets

on

econ

omic

gro

wth

,-

nega

tive

impa

ct o

f dom

estic

cre

dit,

-no

sig

nific

ant e

ffect

of a

ggre

gate

fina

ncia

l int

erm

edia

tion

on g

row

th,

-po

sitiv

e im

pact

of l

evel

of e

duca

tion

and

capi

tal a

ccum

ulat

ion

* pr

oduc

tion

func

tion

appr

oach

(Man

kiw

, Rom

er, W

eil,

1992

): ph

ysic

alca

pita

lsto

ck,

labo

rpar

ticip

atio

n, h

uman

cap

ital;

adde

dcr

edit,

bon

d, s

tock

; agg

rega

tefin

anci

alse

ctor

Nex

us re

sults

forC

EE/A

C*

Sou

rce:

Fin

k / H

aiss

/ V

uksi

c(2

004,

200

5)

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©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge18

Inte

rpre

tatio

n of

nex

usre

sults

�C

EE /

Acc

essi

on C

ount

ries

-fin

anci

al fu

nds

chan

nele

d th

roug

h th

e co

mbi

natio

n of

pub

lic

an

d pr

ivat

e se

ctor

s se

em to

pro

vide

stro

nger

gro

wth

trig

gers

than

th

ose

chan

nele

d so

lely

thro

ugh

the

priv

ate

sect

or

-po

ssib

le o

bsta

cles

hin

derin

g pr

ivat

e cr

edit

and

stoc

k m

arke

ts to

expl

oit t

heir

full

pote

ntia

l nee

d to

be

expl

ored

furth

er

�re

sults

are

mor

e di

ffere

ntia

ted

than

Rou

ssea

u &

Wac

htel

(200

5)

-th

e w

idel

y ac

cept

ed a

ggre

gate

effe

ct o

f fin

ance

on

grow

th fo

und

in

broa

d 19

60-1

989

coun

try s

ampl

es v

anis

hes

sinc

e ea

rly 9

0ies

-fin

ance

-gro

wth

impa

ct v

arie

s w

ith th

e le

vel o

f eco

nom

ic d

evel

opm

ent

-pa

yoff

for f

inan

cial

dee

peni

ng is

stro

nges

t for

mid

dle

rang

e co

untri

es

and

for b

ond

mar

ket d

evel

opm

ent

-R

ajan

(200

5) �o

ne c

an n

o lo

nger

just

exa

min

e th

e st

ate

of th

e ba

nkin

g sy

stem

�. t

o re

ach

conc

lusi

ons

abou

t cre

dit r

eact

ion�

-co

untry

cha

ract

eris

tics

need

to b

e co

nsid

ered

Sou

rce:

Hai

ss /

Fink

(200

6)

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©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge19

Inflo

wof

Fin

anci

al S

ecto

r-FD

Ito

CEE

appr

oach

: com

bine

FDI-g

row

th re

sear

chw

ithfin

ance

-gro

wth

-nex

us

Inflo

wof

FSF

DI t

o C

EEC

anFS

FDI s

pur g

row

th?

Yes:

pane

l dat

a m

odel

for C

EE-1

1in

a cr

oss-

coun

try g

row

th a

ccou

ntin

g fra

mew

ork

�med

ium

FS

FDI s

uppo

rts g

row

th if

hum

an c

apita

l suf

fices

�abo

ve a

cer

tain

thre

shol

d, c

row

ding

out

of l

ocal

phy

sica

lca

pita

l via

fore

ign

bank

ent

ry m

ay s

low

gro

wth

�l

evel

& q

ualit

y of

FS

FDI i

nflu

ence

s co

ntrib

utio

n to

gro

wth

Sou

rce:

Elle

r/Hai

ss/S

tein

er (2

005,

200

6)

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©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge20

Bon

d m

arke

tsiz

e

�bo

nd m

arke

ts c

an s

uppo

rt fi

nanc

ial s

tabi

lity

and

impr

ove

grow

th�l

ong

term

(bon

d) in

tere

st ra

te is

a p

rere

quis

ite fo

r EM

U�b

ut: a

re 2

5 si

ngle

EU

bon

d m

arke

ts e

ffici

ent?

�si

ze a

nd e

ffici

ency

�bon

d m

arke

t siz

e is

usu

ally

link

ed to

a c

ount

ry's

eco

nom

y�i

nteg

rate

d m

arke

ts a

s su

bstit

ute

for d

omes

tic e

cono

mic

siz

e�J

iang

/McC

aule

y (2

004)

: crit

ical

siz

e ab

out E

UR

100

bn th

resh

old

�25

sing

le E

U b

ond

mar

kets

are

not

effi

cien

t

�in

tra-

regi

onal

link

ups

coul

d fo

llow

link

s in

trad

e, F

DI &

ban

king

Sou

rce:

Hai

ss /

Mar

in (2

005)

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©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge21

Con

clus

ions

�bo

nd m

arke

ts &

ban

k cr

edit

cont

ribut

ed to

gro

wth

dur

ing

tran

sitio

n

�fo

reig

n di

rect

inve

stm

ent i

n C

EE fi

nanc

ial s

ecto

r hel

ped

to s

tabi

lize

bank

s an

d m

arke

ts a

nd im

prov

ed e

ffici

ency

�re

gion

al a

ppro

ache

s ad

visa

ble

to a

chie

ve c

ritic

al s

ize

of c

apita

l m

arke

ts

�ne

ed fo

r bro

aden

ing

the

finan

ce-g

row

th-a

ppro

ach

Page 22: WU Präsentationsvorlage Powerpointec.europa.eu/economy_finance/events/2006/workshop271106/... · 2017-01-27 · 10 0% 12 0% 14 0% 16 0% 18 0% 20 0% AT BE D K FI FR D E GR IE I T

©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge22

Ref

eren

ces

Alle

n, F

. / B

artil

oro,

L. /

Kow

alew

ski,

O. (

2005

): Th

e Fi

nanc

ial S

yste

m o

f the

EU

25,

pap

er p

rese

nted

at

the

con

fere

nce

on E

urop

ean

Eco

nom

ic In

tegr

atio

n 20

05, V

ienn

a, O

eNB

, ht

tp://

ww

w.e

onb.

at/d

e/im

g/al

len_

barti

loro

_kow

alew

ski_

finan

cial

_sys

tem

_eu2

5_tc

m14

-339

81.p

dfB

A-C

A (2

004)

: Ban

king

in C

EE

, Ext

raR

epor

tXpl

icit,

Apr

il 20

04, h

ttp://

econ

omic

rese

arch

-e.b

a-ca

.com

BA

-CA

(200

5a):

Ban

king

in S

erbi

a an

d M

onte

negr

o, E

xtra

Rep

ortX

plic

it, M

ay 2

005,

BA

-CA

(200

5b):

Ban

king

in S

outh

-Eas

tern

Eur

ope

On

the

Mov

e, E

xtra

Rep

ortX

plic

it, S

ept.

2005

, B

reus

s, F

., / F

ink,

G. /

Hai

ss, P

. (20

04):

How

wel

l pre

pare

d ar

e th

e N

ew M

embe

r Sta

tes

for t

he

Eur

opea

n U

nion

, Jou

rnal

of P

olic

y M

odel

ing

26: 7

69-7

91.

Car

kovi

c, M

. / L

evin

e, R

. (20

02):

Doe

s FD

I Inv

estm

ent A

ccel

erat

e E

onom

icG

row

th?

Uni

verit

yof

M

inne

sota

Wor

king

Pap

er, h

ttp://

pape

rs.s

srn.

com

/sol

3/pa

pers

.cfm

?abs

tract

_id=

3149

24E

BR

D(2

005)

: Tra

nsiti

onR

epor

t 200

5, L

ondo

nE

BR

D (2

006)

: Tra

nsiti

onR

epor

t 200

6, L

ondo

nE

CB

(200

5): E

U B

anki

ngSe

ctor

Stab

ility,

Oct

. 200

5, h

ttp://

ww

w.e

cb.in

tE

CB

(200

6): E

U B

anki

ngSe

ctor

Stab

ility,

Nov

. 200

6, h

ttp://

ww

w.e

cb.in

t

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©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge23

Ref

eren

ces

Elle

r, M

. / H

aiss

, P. /

Ste

iner

, K. (

2005

): Fo

reig

n D

irect

Inve

stm

ent i

n th

e Fi

nanc

ial S

ecto

r: Th

e E

ngin

e of

Gro

wth

for C

entra

l and

Eas

tern

Eur

ope?

, Eur

opeI

nstit

uteI

Wor

king

Pap

er 6

9, D

ec.

2005

,http

://fg

r.wu-

wie

n.ac

.at/i

nstit

ut/e

f/wp/

wp6

9.pd

fE

ller,

M. /

Hai

ss, P

. / S

tein

er, K

. (20

06):

Fore

ign

Dire

ct In

vest

men

t in

the

finan

cial

sec

tor a

nd c

onom

icgr

owth

in C

entra

l and

Eas

tern

Eur

ope:

The

cru

cial

role

of t

he e

ffici

ency

cha

nnel

, Em

ergi

ng M

arke

ts

Rev

iew

, doi

:10.

1016

/j.em

emar

.200

6.09

.001

, for

thco

min

gE

urop

ean

Com

mis

sion

(200

6):F

inan

cial

Inte

grat

ion

Mon

itor2

006,

ht

tp://

ec.e

urop

a.eu

/inte

rnal

_mar

ket/f

inan

ces/

fim/in

dex_

en.h

tmFi

nk, G

. / H

aiss

, P. /

Hris

tofo

rova

, S. (

2006

): C

redi

t, B

onds

and

Sto

cks

in S

even

Lar

ge E

cono

mie

s,

Eur

opeI

nstit

ute

Wor

king

Pap

er 7

0, J

anua

ry 2

006,

ht

tp://

fgr.w

u-w

ien.

ac.a

t/ins

titut

/ef/w

p/w

p70.

pdf

Fink

, G. /

Hai

ss, P

. / K

irchn

er, H

. / M

oser

-Tho

rwar

tl, U

. (2

005)

:Fin

anci

ng th

roug

h B

ond

Issu

es a

nd

the

Nex

us w

ith E

cono

mic

Gro

wth

, Eur

opeI

nstit

ute

Wor

king

Pap

er 6

8, S

ept 2

005,

http

://fg

r.wu-

wie

n.ac

.at/i

nstit

ut/e

f/wp/

wp6

8.pd

fFi

nk, G

. / H

aiss

, P. /

Vuk

sic,

G. (

2004

): C

hang

ing

Impo

rtanc

e of

Fin

anci

al S

ecto

rs fo

r Gro

wth

from

Tr

ansi

tion

to C

ohes

ion

and

Euro

pean

Inte

grat

ion,

Eur

opeI

nstit

ute

Wor

king

Pap

er N

o. 5

8,

http

://fg

r .wu-

wie

n.ac

.at/i

nstit

ut/e

f/nex

us.h

tml

Fink

, G. /

Hai

ss, P

. / V

uksi

c, G

. (20

05):

Impo

rtanc

e of

Fin

anci

al S

ecto

rs fo

r Gro

wth

in A

cces

sion

C

ount

ries,

Pap

er p

rese

nted

at t

he E

CB

/OeN

B/C

FS-C

onfe

renc

e on

Eur

opea

n E

cono

mic

In

tegr

atio

n, N

ov. 2

005

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©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge24

Ref

eren

ces

Hag

may

r, B

. / H

aiss

, P.(

2006

): Fi

nanc

ial S

ecto

rDev

elop

men

tand

Eco

nom

icG

row

th �

Evid

ence

for

Sou

thea

ster

nE

urop

e, P

aper

pre

sent

ed a

t the

2nd

Wor

ksho

p on

the

Effe

cts

of O

peni

ng th

e B

anki

ng

Sec

tors

in S

outh

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

to F

orei

gn In

vest

men

ts, E

cono

mic

Pol

icy

Inst

itute

, Sof

ia, O

ct.

2006

Hai

ss, P

. (20

06):

Ban

king

Tra

nsiti

on P

rogr

ess,

For

eign

Ban

k E

ntry

and

Eco

nom

ic D

evel

opm

ent:

The

Cas

e of

Ser

bia,

Pap

er p

rese

nted

at t

he 2

nd W

orks

hop

on th

e E

ffect

s of

Ope

ning

the

Ban

king

S

ecto

rs in

Sou

th E

aste

rn E

urop

e to

For

eign

Inve

stm

ents

, Eco

nom

icP

olic

y In

stitu

te, S

ofia

, Oct

. 20

06H

aiss

, P. /

Fin

k, G

. (2

006)

: The

Fina

nce-

Gro

wth

-Nex

usR

evis

ited:

New

Evi

denc

ean

d th

eN

eed

for

Bro

aden

ing

the

App

roac

h, E

urop

eIns

titut

eW

orki

ngPa

per N

o. 7

3, A

ug. 2

006,

http

://w

ww

2.w

u-w

ien.

ac.a

t/eur

opai

nstit

ut/e

f/nex

us.h

tml

Hai

ss, P

. / M

arin

, S. (

2005

): O

ptio

ns fo

r dev

elop

ing

Bon

d M

arke

ts �

Less

ons

from

Asi

a fo

r Cen

tral a

nd

Eas

tern

Eur

ope,

Eur

opeI

nstit

ute

Wor

king

Pap

er 6

3, h

ttp://

fgr.w

u-w

ien.

ac.a

t/ins

titut

/ef/w

p/w

p63.

pdf

Jian

g, G

. / M

cCau

ley,

R. (

2004

): A

sian

loca

l cur

renc

y bo

nd m

arke

ts, B

IS Q

uarte

rly R

evie

w, J

une:

67-

79, h

ttp://

ww

w.b

is.o

rg/p

ubl/q

trpdf

/r_qt

0406

f.pdf

Kra

ft, E

. (20

05):

Ban

king

Ref

orm

in S

outh

east

Eur

ope:

Acc

ompl

ishm

ents

and

Cha

lleng

es´,

in

Lieb

sche

r, K

., C

hris

tl, J

., M

oosl

echn

er, P

., R

itzbe

rger

-Grü

nwal

d, D

. (ed

s.):

Eur

opea

n E

cono

mic

In

tegr

atio

n an

d S

outh

-Eas

t Eur

ope,

Edw

ard

Elg

ar, C

helte

nham

, 350

-367

.

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©Eu

ropa

inst

itut,

WU

-Wie

npa

ge25

Ref

eren

ces

Kin

g, R

. / L

evin

e, R

. (1

993)

: Fin

ance

and

Gro

wth

: Sch

umpe

ter M

ight

Be

Rig

ht, Q

uarte

rly J

ourn

al o

f E

cono

mic

s, 1

08(1

993)

: 717

-737

Levi

ne, R

. (19

97):

Fina

ncia

l Dev

elop

men

t and

Gro

wth

. Vie

ws

and

Age

nda,

Jou

rnal

of E

cono

mic

Li

tera

ture

35,

Jun

e 19

97: 6

88-7

26.

Levi

ne, R

. (20

05):

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ory

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ook

of E

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mic

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, Vol

. 1A

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r, A

mst

erda

m: 8

65-9

34M

anki

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., R

omer

, D. a

nd W

eil,

D. (

1992

): A

Con

tribu

tion

to th

e E

mpi

rics

of E

cono

mic

Gro

wth

, Q

uarte

rly J

ourn

al o

f Eco

nom

ics,

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(2):

407-

437

Mih

alje

k, D

. (20

06):

Rap

id G

row

th o

f Ban

k C

redi

t in

Cen

tral a

nd E

aste

rn E

urop

e: th

e R

ole

of H

ousi

ng

Mar

kets

and

For

eign

-Ow

ned

Ban

ks, P

aper

pre

sent

ed a

t the

12t

hD

ubro

vnik

Eco

nom

ic C

onfe

renc

e,

HN

B, J

uly

2006

, http

://w

ww

.hnb

.hr

Raj

an, R

. (20

05):

Has

Fin

anci

al D

evel

opm

ent M

ade

the

Wor

ld R

iski

er?

NB

ER

Wor

king

Pap

er N

o.

W11

728,

http

://pa

pers

.ssr

n.co

m/s

ol3/

pape

rs.c

fm?a

bstra

ct_i

d=84

2464

Rou

ssea

u, P

. / W

acht

el, P

. (20

05):

Eco

nom

ic G

row

th a

nd F

inan

cial

Dep

th: I

s th

ere

latio

nshi

p ex

tinct

al

read

y? P

aper

pre

sent

ed a

t the

UN

U /

WID

ER

Con

fere

nce

on F

inan

cial

Sec

tor D

evel

opm

ent f

or

Gro

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and

Pov

erty

Red

uctio

n, J

uly,

Hel

sink

iW

acht

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. (20

01):

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ance

: Wha

t Do

We

Kno

w a

nd H

ow D

o W

e K

now

It?,

Inte

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ance

4(3

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5-36

2.

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