wholesale pricing trends - manheim auctions€¦ · manheim index versus mix & quality adjusted...
TRANSCRIPT
6/29/16
Tom Webb,Cox Automotive
Wholesale Pricing Trends –Will supply outstrip “effective” demand?
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan-16
Source: Manheim Consulting
January 1995 = 100
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
Manheim Index versus Mix & Quality Adjusted New Vehicle Pricewith 3 ½ year Lag
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Manheim Consulting
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Percent Change on Annual Average Basis
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
Source: Manheim Consulting
Price Movements for Selective Car Classes (2007 = 100)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140Industry Compact car Midsize car Luxury car
Source: Manheim Consulting
Price Movements for Selective Truck Classes (2007 = 100)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150Industry Pickup CUV / SUV Van
Source: Manheim Consulting
New Vehicle Lease Originations
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Mill
ions
Source: Manheim Consulting
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
mill
ions
of u
nits
Source: Manheim Consulting
Total Wholesale Supply: Off-lease
Off-lease Volumes versus CPO Sales
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Mill
ions
CPO Sales Off-lease
Source: Manheim Consulting & Automotive News
CPO as % of New Vehicle Sales Over Prior 4 Years
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Total Industry BMW Mercedes Audi Lexus
Source: Manheim Consulting
Total Wholesale Supply: Off-rental
0.50.70.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.3
Mill
ions
Source: Manheim Consulting
Share on New Vehicle Sales into Rental
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
GM Ford FCA Toyota Nissan Mazda Hyundai Kia
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 May ytd 2016
Source: Bobit Business Media & Automotive News
Rental Risk Vehicles Remarketed at Auctions2011 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3
Number of unique year, make, model, body configurations sold
2,216 3,303 3,756
Share accounted for top 10 YMMB 28.2% 17.3% 15.6%
Share accounted for top 25 YMMB 46.5% 21.7% 26.9%
Number of YMMB to reach 50% share 31 86 85
Source: Manheim Consulting
Total Wholesale Supply: Off-rental, Off-lease, & Repos
Source: Manheim Consulting
3.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.0
Mill
ions
% Change Used Units Retailed – Same Store Basis(Publicly-traded Dealership Groups)
-25%-20%
-15%-10%
-5%0%
5%10%
15%20%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Company filings
Weighted average for KMX *, AN, PAG, SAH, GPI, ABG, and LAD
*KMX shifted forward one month to correspond with calendar quarter
Used Vehicle Retail Gross Margin (Publicly-traded Dealership Groups)
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sales-weighted average for KMX *, AN, PAG, SAH, GPI, ABG, and LAD
*KMX shifted forward one month to correspond with calendar quarter Source: Company filings
17
ExchangeRates
EnergyMarkets
Credit Conditions
Longer-term loansAvailability
Lease subvention
Interest ratesSeverity of loss
LTVs
Labor Market
Age & education differences
Participation rateHours and earningsInvoluntary part-time
Under-employed
Dominant ForcesShaping the Automotive Industry