Key Note addressWheat outlook :Where wheat really natters

The case of AFRICA nutrition, economic and effects on climate change

Joyce Malinga (PhD)Ag. Director, KALRO Food Crops Research Institute, Kitale Kenya

Presentation Outline

• Background Information• Wheat Status in Africa: Production, Exports and Imports• Challenges, Opportunities and contributions to global wheat• Key Policy reference documents• Some results of Regional Trials• Where is the money• Conclusions, proposals and projections

Who is AFRICA and where is it going with wheat crop• Sub - Saharan Africa alone holds 626 million people, 384 million

depend on Agriculture (61%)• Total land are is 2455 million ha, and 173 million ha (25%) of potential

is used for annual and perennial crops (FAO: Farming systems and poverty)

• According to MSU, International Development working paper 2012, wheat consumption in SSA will grow from a range of 600,000 -1,120,000 MT in 2010-2020

• By 2020-2030, consumption will increase to 770,000 – 1,128 Million MT annualy

Courtesy Mengistu 2014, Borlaugh 100

Only three countries lie in SSA

Courtesy Mengistu 2014, Borlaugh 100

Food Security status in Africa and Eastern Africa: Competing for Wheat imports

• Highest among 10 global importers of wheat from Africa

Country 2012/2013 Rank (mill tons)

2013/2014Rank (mill tons)

2014/2015Rank (mill tons)

Egypt 1 (9.3) 1 (10.5) 1 (10.7)Algeria 5 (5.2) 5 (6.0) 3 (7.1)Morocco 6 (4.4) 7 (4.0) 15 (3.4)Nigeria _ 9(3.5) 9 (4.7)

FAO Stats

Aridity and Increasing Challenge of Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Extreme weathers: • Longer periods of Droughts• Shorter periods of heavy rains• Longer rain periods

• Extreme weather affects:• Agricultural. production• Natural resources management• Food security availability in quantity and

quality• Insect and diseases epidemics• Economic development

• Overdependence on agriculture:• Vulnerability to climate change (CC) impacts

2nd June 2015 7

Important Wheat Diseases

Deforestation and soil degradation due to poor agronomic practices that do not promote sustainable soil management

Courtesy

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Eldoret

Kinamba

Naivasha

Njoro

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Advanced Yield Trial-1_2013 ASARECA regional Wheat Crossing programmes (e.g. Ethiopia- Sirbo, Kubsa, Wetera, Wabe, Dashen) (e.g. Kenya- K.Kudu, Trophy, Bonny) (e.g. Other-Kiritati, Eagle (A), Cook

EAAPP 8/128 lines selected

Climate change, its impact on Agriculture mitigation strategies and job sector: Experience from SMACC Project – wheat-potato based cropping

systems

Ext 3329

Coping Strategies of farmers against percieved Weather variability and Climate change

Frequency Percent Water harvesting 9 13.6%Irrigation 2 3.0%Timely planting 16 24.2%Diversify by planting other crops

11 16.7%

Use of drought tolerant and early maturing varieties

10 15.2%

Disease control 18 27.3%Total 66 100.0

Information Source from which farmers learn about Climate chage

Frequency PercentMinistry of Agriculture 28 42.4

Other Government Organisations

10 15.1

NGOs/CBO 2 3.0

Media 24 36.4

Others 2 3.0

Total 66 100.0

Policy documents references to wheat and agriculture

Courtesy Mengistu, 2014, Borlaug 100

• Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development program (CAADP 2003) (by NEPAD)

‘We the heads of states and governments of the African Union ……reiterate the importance of prioritizing structural transformation for inclusive and people centred development in Africa, (AU 2014)

Conclusions

• Good policy documents exist and can be used by African governments to enhance wheat production in Africa

• Africa’s growing demand for wheat is seen more as an important market for global wheat exporters. Therefore there maybe little goodwill to help African farmers become self sufficient and net exporters of wheat.

• Because Africa is susceptible to climate change, integrated agronomic and soil and water management technologies that support sustainable wheat production will matter

• Only African can best solve Africa’s food needs and they can. Loans that are properly negotiated for equal benefits are desirable.

• Africa should use its strength in ICT to attract youth to farming wheat and cereal crops• In the next generation, only Africa will still have land enough to exploit for commercial

wheat production. Therefore investing in wheat research in SSA makes economic sense.• (Disclaimer: these statements do not reflect KALRO’s thoughts)

Acknowledgement toWheat Initiative for supporting this presentation,

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