ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

‘Wheat for the future’Expo 2015, Milan,Italy

June 3, 2015

Wheat scenario & future outlook for Asia

Ravish Chatrath, R Sendhil & Indu SharmaICAR- Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Karnal, India

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Wheat production - World vis-à-vis Asia

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15620.0

640.0

660.0

680.0

700.0

720.0

740.0

696.0

658.6

716.8726.5

718.9

World

Production Consumption

MM

T

• 2014/15 wheat production estimates are 719 mt from area of 224.4 Mha and productivity of 3.20 t/ha

• Asia contributes nearly 44% (317.3 mt) to the world production

2013

-201

4

Source: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain-wheat.pdf

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Wheat in Asia

West AsiaIraq, Israel, Jordon, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, Yemen

Central AsiaArmenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

South AsiaAfghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan

East AsiaChina, Dem Rep Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Rep Korea

317.3 mt

103.4 mha

2013

-201

4

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Area, production & availability in Asia

Central AsiaWest Asia South Asia East Asia

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Wheat Productivity in Asia (t/ha)Average of three years

2012-2014

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Wheat productivity in Asia

Global average 3.25 t/ha

Central Asia

2.05 t/ha

South Asia East Asia

Average of three years (2012- 2014)

Asia average 3.07 t/ha

1.50 t/ha2.82 t/ha 5.03 t/ha

West Asia

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Import Export situation

Turke

yIra

q

YemenIsr

ael

Saudi A

rabia

Syria

Uzbekis

tan

Azerb

aijan

Tajik

istan Ira

n

Bangla

desh

Afghan

istan

Japan

Rep Korea

China0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Major Importers in Asia

MM

T

Turke

y

Kazakh

stan

India

EU (2

7)

Russian

Federati

on

Ukraine

Argentina

United St

ates

Canad

a

Australi

a 0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Major Exporters of the world

MM

T

Average of three years2012-2014

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Undernourishment in AsiaEnding extreme poverty and hunger is Millennium Development Goal 1One billion people in the world suffer from chronic hunger & two thirds of them live in Asia. Hidden hunger: micronutrient deficienciesLevel of hunger in the world is still “serious,” with 805 million people continuing to go hungry – FAO (United Nations)

Source: 2014 Global Hunger Index, IFPRI

Regional Share (%) of undernourished

Region 1990-92 2012-14

West Asia 0.8 2.3

Central Asia 0.9 0.7

South Asia 28.8 34.3

East Asia 29.1 20.0

Source: FAO, IFAD & WFP 2014

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Micronutrient Deficiency (World Health Organization)

Global Zinc

IronVitamin A

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Climate change vis-à-vis nutrition

SS Myers et al. Nature doi:10.1038/nature13179

Percentage change in nutrients at elevated [CO2] relative toambient [CO2].

Increased CO2 concentrations — like those expected in the next 40-60 years (are predicted to reach 550 ppm)— cause a nearly 10 percent decline in the zinc concentration of wheat

1.9 billion people live in countries where at least 70% of their zinc or iron comes from C3 plants. Reduction in the nutritional content of their food puts people at greater risk for diseases.

Different cultivars of the same crop did not always respond similarly — suggesting that it may be possible to partially counteract the effect by breeding for increased nutrient content

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Impact of climate change on wheat

Impact of climate change on wheatProduction: Reduced crop yield with reduced quality

Soil: Drier, reduced productivity

Irrigation: Increased demand, reduced supply

Disease/Pests: Increased ranges and populations, new races

Economic impact: Reduced agricultural output, decreased exports

11

Projected wheat yield change in %

1970-2000 Baseline to 2050, SRES A2A Scenario

Source: Igesias, A and C Rosenzweig 2010, http://sedac iesin.columbia.edu/mva/cropclimate

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Growth (CAGR) in %

Instability (Cuddy-Della Valle Index) in %

Low High

AREA

Negative -- Eastern Asia

Positive South Asia and Western Asia Central Asia

PRODUCTION

Negative -- --

Positive South Asia and Western Asia Central Asia and Eastern Asia

YIELD

Negative -- --

Positive Eastern Asia, South Asia and Western Asia Central Asia

Growth-Instability Matrix (group wise)

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Growth (CAGR) in % Instability (Cuddy-Della Valle Index) in %Low (<20) High (>20)

AREA

Negative Kazakhstan, China, Mongolia,Afghanistan and Israel

Georgia, Dem Rep Korea, Japan, Rep Korea, Jordan and Lebanon

PositiveArmenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan,Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Bhutan, India, Iran, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Yemen

Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia

PRODUCTION

Negative -- Georgia, Mongolia, Rep Korea, Israel and Jordan

PositiveArmenia, Azerbaijan, KazakhstanTajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Turkey and Yemen

Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, China, Dem Rep Korea, Japan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Iran, Myanmar, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Syria

YIELD

Negative Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan --

Positive

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, China, Japan, Afghanistan, Bhutan, India,Iran, Nepal, Pakistan, Iraq, Israel,Turkey and Yemen

Dem Rep Korea, Mongolia, Rep Korea,

Bangladesh, Myanmar, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Syria

Growth-Instability Matrix (country wise)

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Production Outlook for 2030

2030 production estimation using expert modeler in SPSSTE – Triennium Ending

Western Asia Central Asia South Asia Eastern Asia0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

24.2 24.2

141.2

124.4

30.1 25.5

179.5

158.5

TE 2014 2030 Production estimates

Mill

ion

tons

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Wheat Situation 2014 vis-à-vis 2030 for South Asia

South Asia

2014 2030

Populationin million

Production in mt

Supply in mt

Consumption in mt

Populationin million

Production in mt*

Supply in mt*

Consumption in mt*

Afghanistan 32.56 5.03 7.31 7.00 45.66 8.05 8.79 6.98

Bangladesh 168.96 1.30 6.04 4.70 211.29 1.30 6.01 4.59

Bhutan 0.74 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.85 0.03 0.03 0.03

India 1251.70 95.85 113.73 93.73 1460.74 121.01 142.35 113.37

Iran 81.82 13.00 25.23 18.90 93.46 17.90 48.73 23.55

Myanmar 56.32 1.80 0.58 0.58 64.10 1.80 1.33 1.33

Nepal 31.55 1.95 2.07 2.07 38.89 2.49 2.64 2.64

Pakistan 199.09 25.50 28.42 24.50 242.86 32.54 35.07 30.14

* denotes the estimation using expert modeler in SPSS and population figures are from United Nations

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Challenges to wheat production in Asia

• Yield plateau• Climate change – heat, drought, waterlogging, salinity• Changing pest and disease dynamics• Contiguous zone – threat of rusts• Intensive use of inputs & resources• Deteriorating soil health and ground water• Fragmentation of land and declining farm size • Price of cultivation & reduced gross returns• Demand – Population pressure • Price volatility

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

The way forward -I

• Genetic Improvement– Enhancing yield and adaptability of wheat varieties under changing

climatic conditions.– Developing varieties suited to CA– Breeding for heat tolerance, water and nutrient use efficiency – Developing genotypes having resistance to new virulent races of rusts – Characterization of genetic resources for useful traits– Creation of new variability from un-utilized genetic resources – Strengthening hybrid wheat programme– Precision phenotyping & breeding– Better quality seed – increased replacement of older varieties

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

The way forward -II

• Managing the resources– Emphasis on conservation agriculture to address the issue of climate

change - SMART AGRICULTURE– Focused attention on integrated nutrient and water management– Evaluating the long term effects of tillage and residue management

options on soil properties, pest dynamics and productivity of wheat– Diversification/intensification through integration of legumes in rice-

wheat system to improve profitability and sustainability– Integrated weed management strategies for wheat

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

The way forward -III• Diseases & pest

– Survey-surveillance, crop health monitoring and tackling new races of rust

– Epidemiological studies in relation to changing climatic scenario– Host resistance – identification of new and diverse sources of resistance– To devise eco-friendly management of diseases and pests - IPM – Integrating molecular tools for understanding variability in pathogens

• Quality & Nutrition– Development of product specific varieties with enhanced

nutritional quality– Understanding genetics of quality traits and their molecular basis– Enhancing bio-availability of micronutrients (Fe and Zn) and increasing

antioxidant activities

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

Collaborations

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research

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