current population situation and prospects for sub-saharan africa

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org

Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub-Saharan AfricaCarl Haub [email protected]

Senior Demographer

Population Reference Bureau

Washington, DC

German Association for the United Nations

Berlin, 13 September 2010

© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

World Population

1900

1.6Billion


World Population

2000

6.1Billion


United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population, 1950 to 2050 Projected

World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Billions

IF the total fertility rate in 2050 has declined to 2.6 lifetime births per woman, down from 5.2 today.

1.8


4,157

865585

344739

5,424

1,831

729471

720

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica

LatinAmerica/Carib.

North America Europe

2010

2050

Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet

Population of the World’s Regions, 2010 and 2050 Projected

Millions


1,267

966

144 127

-19

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica

LatinAmerica/Carib.

North America Europe


Projected Growth of World Regional Populations, 2010 to 2050

Millions


70 50 30 10 10 30 50 70

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Females

Fewer and Fewer Potential Parents = Unprecedented Aging:Europe by Age and Sex, 2010

Age

Millions

Males

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant


70 50 30 10 10 30 50 70

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Females

Youthful Population = Large Potential Population Growth:Sub-Saharan Africa by Age and Sex, 2010

Age

Millions

Males



United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

Africa’s Population by Region, 1950 to 2050 Projected

World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0Billions

Eastern Africa

Western Africa

Northern Africa

Middle Africa

Southern Africa


Eastern Africa39%

Middle Africa16%

Western Africa38%

Southern Africa

7%

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population by Region, 2010

865 Million



Eastern Africa40%

Middle Africa17%

Southern Africa

4%

Western Africa39%

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population by Region, 2050 Projected

1.83 Billion



The Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Gesamtfruchtbarkeitsrateoder

Zusammengefasste Geburtenzifferoder

Durchschnittliche Kinderzahl je Frau

The TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant.


Ethiopia Germany

Population 2010 (millions) 85 82

Population 2050 (millions) 174 72

Lifetime Births per Woman 5.4 1.3

Annual Number of Births 3,280,000 648,000

Percent of Population Below Age 15 44 14

Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 20

Life Expectancy at Birth 55 80

Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births 77 3.5

Annual Number of Infant Deaths 250,000 2,250

GNI PPP per capita, 2008 US$ 870 US$ 35,940

The “Demographic Divide”

The Example of Ethiopia and Germany

2010 World Population Data Sheet


ca. 1980 ca. 2010

Western Africa 46 43

Middle Africa 43 46

Eastern Africa 46 44

Northern Africa 44 33

Southern Africa 42 32

India 41 32

China 32 18

1980 and 2010 World Population Data Sheets of the Population Reference Bureau

Population Under Age 15 (Percent)

1980 and 2010


Population projections are scenarios: “If this happens, then that will happen.”

They are not forecasts or predictions.

What ARE Population Projections?


The commonly-used United Nations Medium Variant projection assumes that birth rates will decline so that all developing countries will eventually average a European-like 1.85 children per woman.

That assumption is, in turn, dependent upon the additional assumption that the use of family planning will rise to the same level as that in Europe and North America. The UN is very careful to point that out.

How Are Projections Made?


Fertility Assumptions: The Example of Uganda

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050

Medium Assumption

High Assumption

Constant Fertility Assumption

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision

Children per woman (TFR)

103 Million

91 Million

152 Million

34 Million


7.9

7.16.8 6.7

7.46.9 6.8

5.3

6.7

7.4

6.5

4.0

5.6

6.2

5.75.4

2.4 2.4

Nig

er

Uganda

Ghana

Tanza

nia

Zambia

Nig

eria

Ethio

pia

South A

fric

a

Ban

gladesh

1975

ca. 2010

Total Fertility Rate, Selected African Countries and Bangladesh,1975 and ca. 2010

Lifetime Children per woman

United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision and 2010 World Population Data Sheet


Childbearing in Sub-Saharan Africa Begins at a Young AgeAge-specific Fertility Rates, 2005-2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Age of mother

sub-Saharan Africa

Europe

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision

Births per 1,000 women in each age group


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Bangladesh

U.S.

Lifetime children per woman

Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, 1800 - 2006Two Very Different Histories

Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Chad

Zimbabwe

Uganda

South Africa

Malawi

Fertility Decline in Africa as Reported in Surveys


Demographic and Health Surveys and Statistics South Africa

Circles indicate survey years


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Niger

Ghana

Zambia

Nigeria


Demographic and Health Surveys, Statistics South Africa, 2007 Ghana Maternal Health Survey Note: Gray circles indicate a census estimate

Fertility Decline in Africa as Reported in Surveys - con’t

Circles indicate survey years


4.8

3.94.1

4.34.0

5.95.7

5.14.9

5.5

4.7 4.64.8

4.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)

How Many Children Do Women Say is “Ideal?”

Kenya Madagascar Ghana

Latest DHS total fertility rate in red

4.6 4.8 4.0


6.8

5.65.1 5.3

6.25.7

5.1 5.1

8.5 8.59.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Demographic and Health Surveys

How Many Children Do Women Say is “Ideal?” – con’t

Uganda Zambia Niger

6.5 6.2 7.1Latest DHS total fertility rate in red


42.2

14.4

5.1

13.3

7.810.1

4.2 3.5 3.4

58.4

32.729.2

20.017.9 16.6

13.39.7

6.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Zimbabwe Zambia Madagascar Tanzania Uganda Ghana Burkina Faso Nigeria Benin

early/mid-1990s

ca. 2005-2008

Demographic and Health Surveys and 2006 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) of Burkina Faso

Reported Use of Modern Contraception (Clinic and Supply Methods) Early/mid-1990s and Most Recent

TFRs= 4.3/3.8 6.1/6.2 6.1/4.8 5.8/4.7 6.9/6.7 5.2/4.0 6.5/6.0

% of Married women, ages 15-49 using a modern method

5.7/5.7 6.0/5.7


1.2

9.4

13.2

17.1

40.9

3.4

8.410.5

13.5

35.8

3.9

8.4

11.613.9

37.8

2.24.4 3.9

9.7

20.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Method failure To becomepregnant

Side effects,health

Other reasons All reasons

Ethiopia 2005

Malawi 2004

Tanzania 2004-05

Zimbabwe 2005-06


Reasons for Discontinuation of Contraceptive Use

Percent of users discontinuing within 12 months


6

1

11

3

10

1 1

10

1

27

21

45

221

13

00 01

0

5

12

0

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

EasternAfrica

Middle Africa SouthernAfrica

WesternAfrica

Pill

IUD

Injection

Condom

Female sterilization

Male sterilization

Traditional methods


Family Planning Use by Method, Married/in-Union Women, Ages 15-49

Percent using


6 6 6 6

5 5 5

4 4

3 3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Niger

ia 2

008

Niger

200

6

Mal

i 200

6

Congo DR 20

07

Zambia

2007

Tanza

nia 2

004-

05

Ethio

pia

2005

Mal

awi 2

004

Ghana 20

08

Zimbab

we 200

5-06

Kenya 2

008-0

9


With How Many Living Children Do Women Say They Wish to Stop Childbearing?

TFR= 5.7 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.2 5.7 5.4 6.0 4.0 3.8 4.6

+ + + +

Number of children when women who wish to stop childbearing reaches 50 percent


40.637.9

35.333.8

31.2

26.524.4

21.820.2

15.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


“Unmet Need” for Family Planning Appears to Show a Desire to Space or Limit Births

TFR= 6.7 6.1 4.0 5.4 6.6 6.2 6.3

Percent of married/in-union women, ages 15-49

5.7 5.7 7.0


31.733.0 34.0

13.7

41.843.7

60.3

19.0 20.1

3.1

49.346.4

M ainly wife Jointly M ainly husband

Own health careLarge purchasesDaily purchasesNumber of children

Wives’ Opinion on Who Should Make Household Decisions, Zambia 2007

Percent

Demographic and Health Survey


57.155.3

49.047.3 46.3

42.4 41.9

5.7

Ghana

Moz

ambiq

ueM

ali

Angola

Liber

ia

Sierra

Leo

ne

Uganda

Ethio

pia

In Sub-Saharan Africa, Only about Half or Less of Women Receive SkilledAssistance at BirthPercent with skilled assistance

United Nations, The Millennium Development Goals Database


21.5

15.013.5

7.1

4.1

15.6

6.7 6.24.7

7.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Zambia Kenya Central Af. Rep. Cote d'Ivoire Uganda

Before survey

After survey

UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys

HIV Prevalence Before and After Nationally-representative Surveys Were Taken, Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-2006

Percent of adult population


-30

-7-1

-129

-20

-3

-140.0

-120.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

Africa Asia Latin Amer./Carib.

2010

2050

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision

The Human Cost of HIV: Projected Impact of HIV/AIDS on Population Size as Projected in 2008

Difference between the UN Medium Variant projection with HIV and without HIV

Millions


-267

-30

-5

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

Africa Asia Latin Amer./Carib.

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision

The Human Cost of HIV: Projected Impact of HIV/AIDS on Population Size as Projected in 2000

Difference between the UN Medium Variant projection with HIV and without HIV

Millions


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1950

-195

5

1955

-196

0

1960

-196

5

1965

-197

0

1970

-197

5

1975

-198

0

1980

-198

5

1985

-199

0

1990

-199

5

1995

-200

0

2000

-200

5

2005

-201

0

2010

-201

5

2015

-202

0

2020

-202

5

2025

-203

0

2030

-203

5

2035

-204

0

2040

-204

5

2045

-205

0

Sub-Saharan Africa

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Somalia

Zimbabwe

Kenya

Deaths under 1 year of age per 1,000 births

Improvements in Infant Mortality, Past and Projected, 1950 - 2050



85.0

41.839.0

48.042.7 41.5

28.3

92.0

46.641.7

53.4

44.8 43.9

28.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Germany sub-SaharanAfrica

Nigeria Ethiopia Uganda Botswana Swaziland

Males

Females


Survival from Birth to Age 65 Is Low in Africa2005-2010 Life Tables, (lx function)

Percent surviving


90.8

64.059.9

68.5 65.8

58.3

44.1

95.0

69.663.5

74.9 73.7

60.4

46.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Germany sub-SaharanAfrica

Nigeria Ethiopia Uganda Botswana Swaziland

Males

Females


Survival from Birth to Age 65 Is Low in AfricaProjected to 2045-2050, Life Tables (lx function)

Percent surviving


51

26

144

58

31

184

0 50 100 150 200

Pop. <$1.25 a day

Pop. undernourished (%)

Under 5 mortality

United Nations, The Millennium Development Goals Report 2010

Slow Progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

(1990)

(2005)

(1990-92)

(2005-07)

(1990)

(2008)

Note: Dark line =

2015 MDG Goal


4

24

15

3

16

27

1

10

37

1

9

38

Too low Satisfactory Too high

1976198619962009

Reported Government View on the Level of the Birth Rate,Sub-Saharan Africa, 1976 - 2009

Number of Countries

United Nations Population Division, World Population Policies, 2009


Fertility24. Total fertility rate has persistently remained high at 6.9 children per woman in 2001 and 6.7 in 2006. This is mainly due to cultural and religious beliefs and preference for large families as the source of sustenance especially during oldage. This situation has created a large dependent population, and engendered conditions not favourable for women's reproductive health. Urbanisation, education, higher income and improved decision making within the household are associated with reduced fertility.

Section 24, National Population Policy for Social Transformation and Sustainable Development, Uganda Population Secretariat, 2008


Thank You!

[email protected]

current population situation and prospects for sub-saharan africa

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