wheat for africa: potentials and challenges for harnessing opportunities
TRANSCRIPT
Wheat for Africa: Potentials and Challenges for Harnessing
Opportunities
Bekele Shiferaw, Jawoo Koo; Victor Kommerell, Wilfred Mwangi, Hans J Braun, Bekele Abeyo, Thomas Payne
http://wheat.org/CRP Wheat contact: Victor Kommerell, Program Manager:
[email protected] for Africa study: Bekele Shiferaw
Africa Agriculture Science Week 2013
Outline1. Making the case for Wheat for Africa (W4A)
• Context: CAADP-CGIAR dialogue, W4A Conference• Widening gap and challenges to food security
2. Can SS Africa produce some of its requirements to reduce dependence on imports?
3. How large is the potential and what are the key challenges?
4. What’s needed now: National/regional commitments & W4A investment options for international donors
5. Proposed entry points and call for action
Context: CAADP-CGIAR Dialogue Dublin Process: Greater
connectivity and focus between CAADP and the CGIAR Research Programs
Formulation of an African owned and led Science Agenda for African Agriculture
Seek joint funding for priority programs
CGIAR-CAADP MoU signed in Jan 2013
CAADP Partnership Platform W4A side event 25-26 March 2013
Aligning continental, national and international agricultural research for dev
The Case for W4A: African Researchers and Policymakers say Yes!
2006: Abuja Food Security Summit defines African strategic crops – but wheat not among them
Oct ‘11: CRP Wheat MC opts for regional stakeholder meeting in Africa in 2012
Ethiopian MoA/EIAR, AUC & CGIAR Centers behind CRP Wheat (CIMMYT, ICARDA, IFPRI) decide to go for Pan-African wheat science and policy conference
Oct ‘12: Wheat for Food Security in Africa Conference ends with Declaration: Wheat is a strategic crop for Africa!
End Nov ‘12: JMCAT (African Union Joint Ministerial Conference of MoA and Trade) endorses the Declaration
What next?
http://wheat.org
Wheat Production, demand and importsRegion Total
production million tons)
Total consumption (million
tons)
Per capita production (kg/year)
Per capita consump-tion (kg/
year)
Quantity of import (million tons)
Value of import (billion dollars)
Wheat self-sufficiency
(%)
Eastern Africa
3.62 7.9 11.2 26.2 4.8 1.6 39.8
Central Africa
0.02 1.4 0.2 11.6 0.9 0.3 0.6
West Africa
0.09 5.9 0.3 19.6 5.4 1.8 1.2
Northern Africa
17.69 34.2 84.6 168.4 23 8 50.7
Southern Africa
1.83 3.5 31.6 62 1.6 0.6 57.5
SS Africa 5.55 20.4 6.9 24.9 12.7 4.8 29
Africa 23.24 52.9 22.8 53.8 35.7 12.3 40.2
Average annual total wheat demand growth rates (%)
Region 1961-1970
1971 - 1980
1981 - 1990
1991 - 2000
2001 - 2009
1961 - 2009
E&S Africa with RSA 5.12 3.19 3.34 3.76 5.79 4.19
E&S Africa without RSA 6.29 3.44 3.87 4.36 7.63 5.04
Western & Central Africa 9.44 11.45 -0.62 9.93 4.74 6.98
North Africa 3.60 6.08 3.45 1.29 2.20 3.34
Developing countries 5.34 5.28 3.09 2.74 1.37 3.57
Developed countries 4.01 1.21 1.79 -1.71 0.69 1.15
World 4.47 2.84 2.37 0.61 1.03 2.24
405060708090
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
East Africa
-20
0
20
40
60
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Middle Africa
40
50
60
70
80
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
North Africa
50
100
150
200
250
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Southern Africa
0
5
10
15
20
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
West Africa
40
50
60
70
80
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Africa
Source: Prepared by authors based on FAOSTAT database.
for selected regions in Africa (1961-2010)Trends in wheat self-sufficiency ratio
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
21.6
58.9
Production Total demand
Widening Gap: per capita production and demand for wheat in Africa (kg/year)
Africa
19611964
19671970
19731976
19791982
19851988
19911994
19972000
20032006
20090
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
6.9
36.9
Production Total demand
SS Africa
-12.3
-38.1
-8.0
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
51961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Maize Wheat Rice
Import of main cereals into Africa (million tons)
0.0
-13.8
-8.0
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
51961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Maize Wheat Rice
Africa SS Africa
Major wheat importers
0.00
2,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
8,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
315,838.00324,490.00335,480.00360,447.00377,511.00398,751.00436,072.00523,451.00551,379.00840,493.001,001,853.001,241,324.001,698,229.001,713,190.001,843,341.001,914,864.00
3,243,125.003,971,832.00
5,057,377.00
10,593,506.00
Net imports (million tons), 2010
Feasibility study
1. How large is the potential? Assess to what extent domestic wheat production in SS Africa would be economically profitable and competitive to imports.2. Constraints for harnessing the potential for import substitution3. Policy implications for African governments on strategic role of wheat
Computation of net economic return (NER) for estimating import competitiveness
The NER computed at the pixel level:
NER=P*Y-TVCWhere
P*Y is the gross farm return (US$/ha); P is the pixel level adjusted IPP (import parity price) for wheat
(US$/kg); Y is the adjusted pixel level simulated wheat yield (kg/ha),
adjusted downward by 10% TVC is the pixel level variable cost (US$/ha) including import parity
fertilizer costs and interest on working capital
Rainfed Wheat Suitability Map: IIASA FAO GAEZ
Case study countries for the feasibility study
Country Average (kg/ha)
Angola 1055
Burundi 2886
Ethiopia 2348
Kenya 3087
Madagascar 2175
Mozambique 1052
Rwanda 3681
Tanzania 1986
DRC 1655
Uganda 2861
Zambia 1462
Zimbabwe 911
Yield under low intensification (all pixels)
Country Average (kg/ha)
Angola 1542
Burundi 3208
Ethiopia 2972
Kenya 3410
Madagascar 2605
Mozambique 1287
Rwanda 3986
Tanzania 2219
DRC 2059
Uganda 3383
Zambia 1933
Zimbabwe 1394
Yield under medium intensification (all pixels)
Country Average (kg/ha)
Angola 1886
Burundi 3395
Ethiopia 3395
Kenya 3617
Madagascar 2874
Mozambique 1444
Rwanda 4151
Tanzania 2372
DRC 2325
Uganda 3728
Zambia 2252
Zimbabwe 1744
Yield under High intensification (all pixels)
NER under Low intensification (for pixels
NER>0)Country Average NER
(US$/ha) Pixels with
positive NERs (%)
Angola 195 22
Burundi 905 100
Ethiopia 618 71
Kenya 802 91
Madagascar 524 73
Mozambique 111 15
Rwanda 1314 96
Tanzania 347 68
DRC 270 53
Uganda 742 99
Zambia 301 63
Zimbabwe 250 35
Country Average NER
(US$/ha)
Pixels with positive
NERs (%)
Angola 250 28Burundi 1010 100Ethiopia 670 88Kenya 885 92Madagascar 651 76Mozambique 128 19Rwanda 1416 96Tanzania 371 70DRC 275 71Uganda 898 100Zambia 385 80Zimbabwe 271 58
NER under Medium intensification (for pixels
NER>0)
Country Average NER
(US$/ha)
Pixels with positive
NERs (%)
Angola 275 32Burundi 1061 100Ethiopia 771 90Kenya 931 92Madagascar 731 76Mozambique 145 21Rwanda 1461 96Tanzania 384 71DRC 302 76Uganda 994 100Zambia 444 86Zimbabwe 309 76
NER under High intensification (for pixels
NER>0)
Potential area (>$200/ha) and production (medium level of intensification)
Area (million ha) Production (million tons)
10% 25% 10% 25%
Mozambique 0.1 0.26 0.27 0.67
Burundi 0.14 0.34 0.45 1.11Rwanda 0.14 0.36 0.61 1.51
Uganda 0.2 0.51 0.69 1.72
DRC 0.25 0.62 0.76 1.89
Kenya 0.67 1.67 2.65 6.63
Zimbabwe 0.81 2.03 1.72 4.3
Angola 0.92 2.31 2.67 6.67
Tanzania 1.21 3.02 3.62 9.05
Madagascar 1.27 3.17 4.74 11.85
Zambia 1.73 4.32 4.26 10.64
Ethiopia 2.6 6.5 9.42 23.55All 10.04 25.11 31.86 79.59
Competitiveness with other cropsCountry Crop Average NER for wheat
competing crops<200 USD/ha
(% pixels or hhs)>200 USD/ha
(% pixels or hhs)
Kenya Wheat 803 19.0 81.0 Maize (N=607) 165 67.1 32.9 Beans (N=593) 117 75.5 24.5Tanzania Wheat 212 50.7 49.3 Maize (N=699) 186 70.1 29.9
Beans (N=373) 147 78.3 21.7
Pigeonpea (N=266) 139 80.5 19.5Ethiopia Wheat 570 24.4 75.6
Maize (N=2373) 231 65.7 34.3
Beans (N=587) 580 28.1 71.9 White teff (N=718) 188 62.7 37.3
Barley (N=333) 144 80.1 19.9
Sorghum (N=786) 134 82.4 17.6Malawi Maize (N=1906) 114 76.9 23.1
Groundnut (N=1201) 170 73 27
Sweet potatoes (N=204) 349 59.7 40.7
Tomatoes (N=163) 549 60.7 39.3
Tobacco (N=568) 608 59.9 40.1
Constraints to wheat in SS Africa• Perception that wheat is not for SS Africa: cannot
competitively produce wheat (under-funded and under-invested crop)
• Imperfect information and inadequate awareness by farmers and policy makers
• Subsidized and cheap imports that undermine domestic production
• Cultural and social factors – lack of prior experience by smallholder farmers
• Lack of mechanization – production, harvesting, threshing• Lack of capacity - research, production and value chain
development
Conclusions• Strong emerging evidence of large underutilized potential for
economically profitable wheat production to meet the growing consumption demand
• Variable potential - many countries (but not all) have suitable agro-ecologies for competitive wheat production
• Results are generally robust to plausible shocks– Low world prices of wheat and high fertilizer costs will reduce
the relative competitiveness of domestic production– Investment in R&D to increase yields and to reduce domestic
production and marketing costs will increase it
• The limiting factors for wheat in Africa seem to be less of agro-ecological and more of socio-cultural, institutional and policy impediments.
Targeting opportunities for wheat in Africa: Entry points
and priority actions
Bekele Shiferaw, Victor Kommerell and Wilfred Mwangi
Outline1. What’s needed now: National/regional
commitments & W4A investment options for international donors
2. Knowledge gaps3. Current investments4. Entry points 5. Proposed next steps and call for action
What Africa needs now to harness this potential?
• Paradigm shift – policy dialogue and conversation on potential opportunities (rainfed/irrigated)
• Action plan will vary by country/region – Assess current limiting constraints in farming systems and
market access challenges – Tradeoffs and synergies with other crops grown by farmers– Crop-livestock integration and rotation with legumes– Strategy for small vs. medium and large scale farmers– Combine intensification and extensification options
• Pilot projects and adaptive research to identify suitable and market preferred varieties in different agro-ecologies
Knowledge gaps1. Detailed wheat profitability potential studies (rain-fed and irrigated),
beyond modelling-based projections developed in 20122. Understand constraints to smallholder wheat production -
mechanization, markets, cultural, policy, etc3. Investigate wheat-related trade/value chain obstacles & opportunities
at regional level: Baseline for developing African common market for wheat & other food commodities
4. Wheat consumption trends in Africa (who, where, why) & projections5. Address complex Agri-R4D challenges: Continental germplasm
exchange, multi-country/agro-eco zone breeding platforms, biomass (ecological intensification, wheat alternative uses/livestock trade-offs)
6. Develop integrated wheat systems technologies for high potential countries/regions
7. Investigate African wheat imports net winners and losers
Current W4A projects – good startbut far from requirements
29
Annual wheat improvement training courses (CIMMYT); SARD-SC/Wheat (ICARDA-led); Rust-related capacity development (DRRW)
SARD-SC/Wheat, started 2013, 3 hubs with 12 SSA countries: agronomy ‘packages’; CD Seed on mechanisation (Ethiopia, BMZ); FACASI on small-scale mechanisation, starts 2013 (Ethiopia ; ACIAR); ATA (83 Ethiopian districts with easy reach wheat potential)
Accelerated variety release (Ethiopia, USAID)IWIN (WHEAT); EAPP (East
Africa, regional adaptation trials); SARD-SC/Wheat
Durable Rust Resistance Wheat project (DRRW/BGRI)
Opportunities for increasing production
• Evaluate alternative strategies for expansion– Land surplus economies. e.g. Mozambique, Zambia, Angola,
Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Tanzania. complementary investments in roads, irrigation, storage and marketing systems.
– Land constrained economies: Limited expansion of wheat into new areas for commercial production may be possible e.g. areas with good market access, e.g. densely populated highland regions of Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia and parts of Tanzania and Uganda consider integrating wheat into existing faming systems without necessarily crowding out other profitable crops.
• Both smallholder and large-scale commercial production
• Rainfed and irrigated systems
Proposed action plan: key entry pointsTarget region/typology Key challenges and investment priorities Potential donors
1. Countries where smallholder production exists - Integrated interventions for improving productivity and sustainability (e.g. Ethiopia, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Burundi)
• Close yield gap
• Improve service delivery (extens, credit, storage, etc)
• Seed delivery, agronomy, intensification and systems
• Enhance value chains and profitability of wheat
• Marketing, quality and processing
GoV, BMGF, AfDB, CIDA, SIDA, DIFID, IFAD, USAID, etc
2. Countries with potential but limited smallholder production – Test and validate competitiveness of wheat (e.g. Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, etc.)
• On-farm trials with varieties, agronomy, etc
• Test competitiveness: Generate actual on-farm and value chain data to see the case for competitiveness with imports and other crops
• Policy recommendations on smallholder wheat systems in Africa
GoV, BMGF, AfDB, etc
3. Integrated innovations and investments for exploiting irrigated systems (e.g. Nigeria, Zambia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Mali, etc.)
• Overcoming soil salinity, heat tolerance, land degradation, sustainable productivity growth
• Enhance value chains and profitability of wheat
• Marketing, quality and processing
Nigeria, Sudan, Zambia, AfDB, BMZ, etc
Concrete next steps (our ideas)1. Consider wheat in the CAADP National Agricultural Investment
Plans2. Build on the AfDB funded SARD-SC project to validate potentials and
build the proof of concept in selected target countries3. Initiate dialogue with development investors and stakeholders on
strategies for reducing import dependence 4. Regional platforms for data collection:
– Gather high quality data and share with governments and development investors
– Regional phenotyping platform: 2 – 3 locations in Africa to observe yield and heat & drought tolerance
5. Establish Partnership for Wheat Development in Africa (W4AC) – continental platform for spearheading the advocacy and implementation of the W4A strategy.
Thank you for your attention! Your questions and comments, please
http://wheat.org/Victor Kommerell, CRP Program Manager:
Africa Agriculture Science Week 2013
Production and degree of self-sufficiency for wheat in Africa (2008 - 2010)
Country Area (1000 ha) Production (1000 tons)
Self-sufficiency (%)
Morocco 2,896.0 5,005.7 60.71Algeria 1,585.1 2,388.1 29.33Ethiopia 1,520.7 2,725.4 64.33Egypt 1,283.2 7,889.7 45.78South Africa 649.5 1,839.3 59.50Tunisia 585.2 1,131.6 40.93Sudan 308.8 543.9 25.38Kenya 140.6 356.0 40.12Libya 133.3 105.0 6.71Tanzania 49.0 92.9 11.00Rwanda 48.1 72.5 73.01Nigeria 34.7 51.3 1.40Others 141.8 340.9 5.24
Africa 9,376.0 22,542.3 40.2
Annex: Sources of wheat imports – SSA big 5 (2000-10)
Source: FAOSTAT Trade database
Importing country
Share of total imports from source country
Source country Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria RSA Sudan All 5
Argentina 0.0% 22.3% 8.9% 31.2% 5.4% 15.0%
Australia 1.0% 6.6% 0.7% 9.1% 44.6% 7.8%
Belgium 0.0% 0.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%
Bulgaria 8.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%
Canada 2.3% 2.4% 1.3% 8.0% 25.7% 5.5%
Germany 0.7% 2.5% 0.3% 22.0% 0.0% 6.4%
Italy 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 3.8%
Pakistan 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1.2%
Russian Federation 0.9% 16.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 3.3%
Ukraine 4.4% 18.7% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 4.4%
USA 48.9% 7.7% 57.9% 20.6% 6.0% 33.8%
Other countries 13.6% 16.4% 17.0% 6.7% 14.5% 13.3%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Wheat becoming #1 staple in many places
36
Lusaka, Zambia – 2007/08
Source: Mason & Jayne (2009)
Similar patterns: Kitwe, ZambiaNairobi, Kenya
Maputo, Mozambique
Growth rates in per capita wheat consumption (%)
Region1961 - 1970
1971 - 1980
1981 -1990
1991 - 2000
2000 - 2009
1961 - 2009
E&S Africa with RSA 2.45 0.69 0.62 1.29 1.63 1.31
E&S Africa without RSA
3.65 0.90 0.84 1.76 2.64 1.91
Western and Central Africa
6.81 8.45 -3.27 6.97 2.02 4.19
North Africa 1.11 3.60 0.62 -0.57 0.50 1.06
Developing countries 3.13 3.31 1.02 0.64 -0.33 1.56
Developed countries -0.70 -0.37 0.16 -0.58 -0.21 -0.33
World 0.49 1.28 0.49 0.04 -0.38 0.40
Average annual total wheat demand growth rates (%)
Region 1961-1970
1971 - 1980
1981 - 1990
1991 - 2000
2001 - 2009
1961 - 2009
E&S Africa with RSA 5.12 3.19 3.34 3.76 5.79 4.19
E&S Africa without RSA 6.29 3.44 3.87 4.36 7.63 5.04
Western & Central Africa 9.44 11.45 -0.62 9.93 4.74 6.98
North Africa 3.60 6.08 3.45 1.29 2.20 3.34
Developing countries 5.34 5.28 3.09 2.74 1.37 3.57
Developed countries 4.01 1.21 1.79 -1.71 0.69 1.15
World 4.47 2.84 2.37 0.61 1.03 2.24
Drivers of growing demand
• Population growth• Income growth• Urbanization • Female employment and opportunity
cost of time• Declining international prices relative
to other staples• Globalization and changing lifestyles