VR/AR 2017 and Beyond: Reality, Evolution, and

RevolutionCharlie Fink

Contributor, Forbes

Contributing Editor, VR Voice

@charliefink

About Me• Contributor, Forbes and other publications 2016-7

• Entrepreneur & Producer 05-16

• President, AG Interactive 00-04

• SVP, America Online 95-99

• EVP, COO, Virtual World Entertainment 92-95

• VP, Disney 85-92

40 Years of Disruption

• Audio Cassettes

• Video Cassette Recorders (VCRs)

• Personal Computers

• Cellular Phones

• The Internet

• Smart Phones (handheld computing)

• Mixed Reality (AR, VR)

Things I Know Are True

• AR and VR Represent a Major Paradigm Shift in Computing

• Technology succeeds when it makes what we are already doing better, cheaper and faster

• The killer app is other people

• Everyone overestimates the short term and underestimates the long term

• Change happens very, very slowly, and then all at once

Change Happens Very Slowly And Then All At Once

VR And Popular Culture

Tron (1982)

• asdfa

Augmented Reality

1977 – Star Wars

The Matrix

Ready Player One, March 18, 2018

Definitions

PHYSICAL REALITY DIGITAL REALITY

MIXED REALITY

DIGITAL REALITY PHYSICAL REALITY

Mixed Reality Spectrum

Windows Mixed Reality – Holographic headsets (see-through)

Windows Mixed Reality – Immersive headsets (occluded)

VR todayAR today

PHYSICAL REALITY

DIGITAL REALITY

MIXED REALITY (MR)

Mixed reality blends the physical and digital worlds to produce new environments where physical and digital objects co-exist and can be interacted with as if all of them were real.

AR/MR Covers Most of The Spectrum• Current Smart Phones

• Filters

• Enhanced 3D Handheld• Depth sensing, multiple cameras

• SLAM

• Snapdragon, Tango

• Headmounted AR• Hololens (Holographic Computing)

• ODG

• Meta

Immersion

Presence

Cell - AR Cell - ODG R8 - Hololens - Meta2 - Standalone - Gear - Rift - Vive - Free Roam

Immersion and Presence

AR vs VR

A Short History Lesson

Man Has Always Sought Presence in Other Worlds

Sutherland Display

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtwZXGprxag

Virtuality, 1992

2000 - 2012, The Dark Years

• Failed Economic Models

• Product Failures

• Insurmountable Technical Hurdles• Graphics Cards

• Affordable HMDs

• No Development Ecosystem• No content, peripherals

• Shift of Capital & Interest to Internet, Mobile

Palmer Lucky

Oculus Rift

Sony Morpheus

HTC/Valve Vive

2016 - Rise of Consumer HMDs

Form Factors

The Problem We Are Trying to Solve

Requires A Revolution In Computing

AR HMD Computing On Market 2017 Is For Developers• Hololens - $3,000 developer edition, available now

• ODG R-8 – Under $1,000, Consumer Offered by Megu (China) Q4

• Meta 2 – $1,000 developer edition, available now

• Google Standalone VR (HTC, Lenovo) - >$500, Q4

• Kopin, Epson, Lenovo – Enterprise Focused

• Zapbox Cardboard - $50

Meanwhile, Here in The Present

Pokemon GO..

AR Today

• Spatial Mapping, Depth (SLAM)• Google Tango • Enables New & Improved Apps

• Filters• Snap, Facebook, Lumyer, Masqurade, MS Creator

• Toys• Holotats• Holocube• Hologrid Monster

• Games• PokemonGO• Phantogeist

Mobile VR Sales Dwarf VR Sales

•Google Cardboard – 20 Million

• Samsung GearVR – 6.5 Million

•Playstation VR – 900,000

•HTC Vive – 400,000

•Google Daydream – 200,000

•Oculus Rift – 150,000

The Cash is in the Hands

• Microsoft – Hololens, Microsoft MR

• Apple – iPhone 8 AR, ARKit

• Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store

• Google – Cardboard, Daydream, Stand Alone VR (Tango/World Sense)

• Samsung –Gear VR

• Sony - Playstation VR

The Big Guys Are Making Big Bets

7xgrowth of market forecasted through 2020

Source: IDC, Worldwide Quarterly Augmented and Virtual Reality Headset Tracker, 3Q16

196,722 1,937,954

10,252,907

22,672,192

37,674,548

54,003,645

75,972,265

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

HMDs shipments to reach ~76M units by 2020 growing at 65% CAGR

These new experiences are poised for rapid growth

• Personal Computer• Online Services (email)

• Shopping

• Social Media

• Smart Phones• Messaging

• Photography

• Maps

• Music/Media

Markets for Consumer Tech Are Driven by Killer Apps

AR’s Killer Apps

• Things we can do better without screens• Directions

• Messaging

• Media

• New things we can do• Spatial Mapping

• Telepresence

• Object Recognition

• Facial Recognition

• Remote Experts

Enterprise Goes First

• Military

• Design & Construction

• Industrial Maintenance • Remote Experts

• Medical• Monitor Consolidation

• Heads Up Display

• Tele surgery

• Sales & Marketing

What’s In the Hands Will Reach The Eyes

Path to Success for Consumer MR• Cost, Ease of Use, Price

• Killer Apps• Social/Telepresence

• Optics/Field of View

• Ergonomics

• Input Solutions• Voice

• Airmouse/Ring

• Haptics (Touch)

Gartner Hype Cycle (2016)

A Bit About Content

360 Video – The Tip of the Spear

• Pro•News• Entertainment• Sports

• Consumer• Travel• Sports

The Epic Battle For Social VR

• Second Life

• Sansar

• High Fidelity

• AltspaceVR

• Rec Room

• Oculus Rooms

Companies

• sdfa

• sdas

Case Study: HTC, Playing the Long Game

• Address the Exposure Problem

• Vrcades, Franchise Titles

• Nurture Developers and Relationships

• Viveport

• Develop technology ecosystem via Venture Investments

• Tools, Haptics, Social, Education, Sports, Entertainment, Games, etc.

• Flexibility

• Google Standalone

• Apple ARKit

Daydream Standalone: Potential Game Changer

• Wearable Android

• Inside Out Cameras

• Daydream Store

• Plug and Play

• Untethered

• Coming this Xmas

• HTC, Lenovo, other OEMs

• Priced Under $500

Vive Standalone

LenovoStandalone

The Future In The Public Square?• New Vrcades

• IMAX VR• Viveport• Tick Tock Unlock

• Free Roam VR• The Void • Zero Latency• Dreamscape

• VR LBEs in the 90s• The mundane reality of retail

323 VRcades - And Counting! • Two Bit Circus

• Nomadic VR

• VR World

• House of VR

• Toronto VR Games

• The Portal

• Colony VR

• Virtreal

• VRPlayin

• Nearby Planet VR

*Source: VRNish.com

*

Predictions for June, 2018

•Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point

• Lower cost HMDs

•Phone Replacement Cycle Accelerates

•Apple AR in iPhone 8

•More Compelling Apps Appear

•Magic Leap Comes Out

Predictions for June, 2023

•Wearable computing, MR commonplace

• The Killer AR app will be telepresence (social)

•Killer VR app is casual game Westworld

• Self-driving trucks, cars, common

•Automation & AI growth increase unemployment

•Wealth Gap at dangerous, historic levels

Thank You! @CharlieFink