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Trends and Directions in Mobile and Wireless

Leif-Olof Wallin

2010 - An Unsettled Mobile Year

EcosystemsPlatform wars

App store competition, and the fight for

developers & content

EcosystemsPlatform wars

App store competition, and the fight for

developers & content

Vendors & operatorsMake or break strategies in 2010 & 2011

Business models evolve

Vendors & operatorsMake or break strategies in 2010 & 2011

Business models evolve

Clouds & ServicesService innovation

Context

New mobile business models, e.g. advertising

Clouds & ServicesService innovation

Context

New mobile business models, e.g. advertising

DevicesSmartphones rule the (developed) world

New devices raise the bar for smartphones

DevicesSmartphones rule the (developed) world

New devices raise the bar for smartphones

Key Issues

1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014?

2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?

Key Issues

1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014?

2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?

Cellular Network Opportunities & Challenges

HSPA LTEPeak theoretical data rates

Downlink Uplink

1Gbps

100 Mbps

10 Mbps

1 Mbps

100 Kbps

LTE-A

4 bn

3 bn

2 bn

1 bn

02010 2011 2012 2013

GSM

WCDMA & HSPA

CDMA & EV-DOLTE

Cellular subscribers by technology

• Clear technical roadmap to 4G, but many paths to get there• Data demand is exploding, providing the capacity is possible but expensive• Network performance has become a competitive issue• Several generations of network will co-exist in most regions

Smartphones Will Dominate Mature Market Mobility

JapanWEU

LATAM

NA

MEAEEU

APAC

2010 2011 2012 20130%

50%

100%

Device Shipments 2010 - 2013 Smartphones as %ge handsets shipped

2010 2011 2012 2013

0.5 bn

1.0 bn

1.5 bn

2.0 bn

2.5 bn

Basic phonesBasic phones

Enhanced phonesEnhanced phones 11

SmartphonesSmartphones 11

Mobile PCsMobile PCs

(1) Cellular MIDs are included in both the smartphone and enhanced phone categories

Handset Platforms No-one Can Afford to Slip Up

50%

0%

40%

30%

20%

10%

2010 2011 2012 2013

Mobile Platform Market Share Symbian holds the lead, dominated by Nokia despite open source

Android gains share and appears on more devices such as netbooks, e- books and non-phone MIDs

iPhone shipments grow but share changes little as the market expands

RIM loses share to more consumer- oriented platforms & ecosystems

Windows Mobile. Complex microsoft strategy, includes WM7, WM6.x, Pink.

Maemo / Meego replaces Symbian in high-end Nokia devices

Others including Linux, webOS, LIMO remain niche platforms

Mobile Device Trends 2010 - 2013

TransportableTransportable

PortablePortable

PocketablePocketable

PersonalPersonal

ImplantedImplanted

Form factors Features / Technology

• More device types in addition to laptops & smartphones

• Viability of non- pocketable MIDs, the new 0.5 Kg wasteland?

• 8” to 10” screen is the minimum for Windows 7

• Trend towards thinner devices

• GPS in > 90% and WiFi in > 70% smartphones shipped in 2013

• OLED screens allow thinner devices and better battery life

• E-compass complements GPS in high-end devices

• More multi-touch on PCs (Windows 7) and handsets

• Growing interest in wireless charging and novel power sources

• Under 2% of all handsets will support WiMax by 2013

Flexibility

Portability

Mobile Technologies On Your Radar Screen

Bluetooth 3

Bluetooth LE

Mobile Web

LTE

App Stores

Touch interfaces

ContextNear Field Wireless

Location awareness &

augmented reality

M2M & embedded

wireless

Advanced mobile UIs

Pico projectors

Mobile HTML 5 Widgets

2010 - 20122011 - 2015 2011 - 2015

Multicore handsets

Flexible displays

Wireless broadband

802.11n

Platform independent mobile AD

Agents

The Emergence of Contextual Mobility

2009 2010-2012 2015-2020

Device centricPresence, PIM

Device centricLocation, Identity, Simple behavior and habits, Location-aware social networks Simple proactive alerts

People centricSensors, bio sensors Adjacent devices and people, Complex anticipatory behavior, Complex federated services, Contextual social networking

Pre-context Simple single-vendor systems and walled gardens

Open systems and federations

Key Issues

1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014?

2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?

Mobile Collaboration 2010-2012

Communication

CoordinationCommunities

Social Interaction

Voice

Messaging such as SMS, mobile e-mail,

MMS

Mobile PIM

Shared information

Mobile portals

Mobile social

networking

Informal voice, messaging etc.

Image and video

sharing

Mobile presence and IM

Moblogs

Location tracking

Interest sharing

Video

Mobile microblogging

Shared documents & portals

Mobile social networking

Collaboration

“Bring Your Own” Mobility Employee-Owned Mobile Devices

No idea of the scope of the

issue

Ban them

Tolerance and policies

Formalise employee ownership

• Risks & unknown benefits

• Survey in US, UK and Germany: 43% orgs. banned employee-owned PCs.

• Limits risk, but no benefit

• Security issues of uncontrolled devices• Stipends and taxation issues• Who provides support?• How to encourage standards?• Is there a business case? If so what?• Who should not buy their own devices?• Controlled choice and managed diversity,

e.g. “platform”, “appliance” and “concierge”• Corporate cellular contracts on employee-

owned devices• Potential benefits: economic + employee

satisfaction

Ignorance

Prevention

Permission

Exploitation

Make Employee-Owned Devices Safe(r)

Thin-client architectures

HTML, Ajax architecture

Citrix-like solutions

Applications as a service

Portable personality

Network access control

Security as a service

Virtualization

Trust the user

Non-PCNetwork

Applications

PC

More LessPotential for addressing security challenges

A New Enterprise Mobile Landscape Will Emerge From Consumer Vendors

Mobile ecosystem and app. storeOwns social networking

Communications services (such as voice, IM, video, e-mail)Emerging market mobile services

Mobile consumer cloud services and context

Social network with mobile extension APIs

Applications & media, MobileMe, conferencing

Growing Ovi services and app store

Enterprise collaboration, UC, OneApp e-mail/IM

Android/Chrome platform, Web services, Wave

Strong Moderate WeakStrong Moderate Weak

E-mail, IM, widget gallery, mobile search

M2M & Intelligent Machines Unlock New Business Opportunities

Leading Applications 2010

Future Opportunities

Service & Contract Options

• Convert products into services• Information stream products, e.g. e-books• Smart connected products• “Green” products

• AMR & “smart grid”• Security / surveillance• Automotive• Vending & POS• Remote monitoring • Track & trace, geo-fencing • Other, e.g. signage

• Service providers include:

- M2M specialists, e.g. Wyless - Network operators, e.g. Orange, AT&T - Alliances

• Contract options include: - In-country (the majority) - Multinational for small data volumes - Bundled into consumer electronics price

What value will each customer platform deliver?

What value will each customer platform deliver?

Value Based Mobile Business Strategy

What are your business goals & metrics?

Who are the customers?

Where are the customers, what’s their context?

What are your business goals & metrics?

Who are the customers?

Where are the customers, what’s their context?

What will be the most profitable platform & technology mix? e.g. native vs mobile web vs SMS vs other

What will be the most profitable platform & technology mix? e.g. native vs mobile web vs SMS vs other

Which devices and habits do your customers have? Which devices and habits do your customers have?

Non-smartphones 75%RIM 10%iPhone 6%Other smartphones 4%Android 3%Microsoft 2% (illustration, not representative of any specific customer set)

Non-smartphones 75%RIM 10%iPhone 6%Other smartphones 4%Android 3%Microsoft 2% (illustration, not representative of any specific customer set)

The Increasingly Complex Mobile AD Portfolio

Messaging tools & services e.g. Sybase365, Mblox

Messaging tools & services e.g. Sybase365, Mblox

Native tools e.g. Apple, Microsoft Native tools e.g. Apple, Microsoft

Dynamic web adaptation e.g. Infogin, Netbiscuits Dynamic web adaptation e.g. Infogin, Netbiscuits

Native tools + middleware e.g. Microsoft, RIM

Native tools + middleware e.g. Microsoft, RIM

Cross platform tools e.g. Qt, Appcelerator, Java Cross platform tools e.g. Qt, Appcelerator, Java

Classic MEAP tools e.g. Antenna, Syclo, Sybase, Spring

Classic MEAP tools e.g. Antenna, Syclo, Sybase, Spring

HTML5 and pre-HTML5 tools e.g. Gears

HTML5 and pre-HTML5 tools e.g. Gears

Web oriented rich application tools e.g. Air, Flash, Silverlight

Web oriented rich application tools e.g. Air, Flash, Silverlight

Supporting tools, e.g. MDM

Supporting tools, e.g. MDM

HTML & widget tools e.g. Dreamweaver HTML & widget tools e.g. Dreamweaver

MEAPMEAP WebWeb

MCAPMCAP Packaged mobile app. toolsPackaged mobile app. tools

e.g. Blue dot, Cognito, Vaultus, ...

e.g. Appbreeder, Appcelerator, BuildAnApp, Modomodo, Rhomobile.....

Niche tools and emerging business models such as hosted AD Niche tools and emerging business models such as hosted AD

Business Imperative Action Plan Today

• Expect that every worker IT supports will become more mobile

• Define strategies to secure employee-owned devices and appliance mode devices which have access to corporate information

During the Next 12 Months• Mobile communication, collaboration and social networking will become a

corporate need and a vendor battleground. Define a strategy

• New devices and app. stores will drive an explosion in consumer mobile applications on all platforms, some of these will enter the enterprise

• Explore platform-independent application development tools to provide some insulation from the platform wars

• Select B2C mobile strategies and technologies based on customer value, not platform hype

Long Term• Pilot tools and applications that exploit context

Related Research • Mobile Architectures, 2009 Through 2012: A Trend Toward Thin

Nick Jones and Bill Clark, (G00166465)• Gartner’s View of Enterprise Mobility

Leif-Olof Wallin, (G00149888)• What the CIO Needs to Know About Mobile-App Stores and

Ecosystems Nick Jones, (G00169623)

• Hype Cycle for Mobile Device Technologies, 2009 Various authors, (G00169659)

• Toolkit: Mobile and Remote Working is a Key Initiative for Leaders in Infrastructure and Operations Leif-Olof Wallin, Robin Simpson, (G00164971)

• How to Score, Compare and Prioritise Mobile Projects Based on Business Value Robin Simpson, Audrey Apfel, (G00162247)