trends but no directions

Download Trends but No Directions

If you can't read please download the document

Post on 21-Mar-2017

202 views

Category:

Software

0 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • Nordic Region Technical ConferenceOslo, May 2006Michael Erichsen, CSCTrends, but No Directions?IT in the Age of Globalization

    *Presentation on Hey, Who Stole my Computer requested last year at Riga one late evening over a glass of good beer

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Purpose of this PresentationNot really to answer questions, but to try to ask themCAUTION:The speaker does NOT necessarily have any deep knowledge in the areas discussedThe presentation consists mainly of unsubstantiated statements, unfounded prejudice, and loose claims ripped off the InternetA complete literature list would be longer than the presentationBut perhaps we could draw some perspective and inspiration when considering the many confusing trendsThe thoughts, opinions, and considerations are the speakers own, and not necessarily those of his company or of the GSE Steering Committees

    *Going through many slidesMany of them would each take a long evening and a bottle of good red wine to discussIll just roll quickly through them to try to provoke some thoughts about what is driving the development of our industry and our own situation

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Paradigm Shifts and ForesightParadigm Shifts is a way of discussing changes in the past by grouping them on a high levelForesight is a technique used by Governments and Universities to build scenarios to help them choose policies to further their aims and strategiesWhy are such methods important?

    They can help us better understand the trends that affect our countries, our companies, and the future of each of us

    *

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Trends, but No Directions?IT in the Age of GlobalizationParadigm Shifts

    *

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Whats a Paradigm?

    *

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Scott Adams Own CommentIf you can say Well, we are going to do a paradigm here. We're looking at different models. We'll run a few simulations and put this together to see if we can get a consensus.That sounds much better than I don't know

    *Scott Adams is the guy who draws Dilbert

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Brother, Can You Paradigm?Thomas S. Kuhn: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962):Scientific advancement is not evolutionary

    A series of peaceful interludes punctuated by intellectually violent revolutions, where one conceptual world view is replaced by anotherA Paradigm Shift is a change from one way of thinking to another

    It's a revolution, a transformation, a sort of metamorphosis. It just does not happen, but rather it is driven by agents of changeAs paraphrased by professor Frank Pajares

    *Already 19th century philosophers discussed this view on development, but the wording is new

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Some Paradigm ShiftsOffshoring labour intensive work Automation & Back-shoring Offshoring automated workEDP a part of accounting IT a strategic resource dot.com Cost containment InnovationBatch On-line Client/Server Web SOADecoupling of operating system, data, business processes, presentation, business rulesData Centric Process CentricData Entry Case WorkStationary MobileCentralized DecentralizedTop-Down Bottom-up Meet in the middle

    *

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Details and the Complete Picture

    *I will rush through a lot of detail. The complete picture is up to yourselves to work out

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    No attempt made to explain EverythingA theory has to be simpler than the data it explains, otherwise it does not explain anything

    Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz in Discours de mtaphysique, 1686, paraphrased by Gregory Chaitin

    *Gurdjieff

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Offshoring of ManufacturingIn the 1950es manufacturing boomed, and workers were drawn from the countryside to the factoriesIn the 1960es workers were imported from abroad In the 1970es manufacturing was exported to the third world

    Footloose industries, Free Trade ZonesAutomation and robots demanded highly skilled workers

    Some manufacturing was backshoredIn the 1990es a highly skilled Chinese workforce entered the world market, and almost all manufacturing was re-offshored

    Important to note that this has been a non-linear processThe consequences in Europe: Marginalization of unskilled labour (to a high degree affecting imported workers and their children). Fear of globalization (Fortress Europe)

    *Also the higher oil prices and effects on global warming has affected the economy of transporting raw material and products across the world

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    The Role of Information TechnologyIT entered companies as Data Processing (EDP), a subset of the accounting department

    Faster file handling, better calculationsAs IT matured, and IT departments became more ambitious, they promoted IT as a strategic resource

    Seen by upper management as a trick to gain powerDuring the dot.com bubble, everybody rushed into e-something

    ERP, CRM, SCM, EAI, WebThe bubble burst, and cost containment ruled

    IT must support cost cutting and take a lot of cutbacks itselfNow focus is moving back from the bottom line to the top line

    IT now must support Innovation to help companies compete

    *

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Innovation is not the Same as Creativity"Innovation is generally understood as the introduction of a new thing or method Innovation is the embodiment, combination, or synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant, valued new products, processes, or services. (Luecke & Katz, 2003)"All innovation begins with creative ideas We define innovation as the successful implementation of creative ideas within an organization. In this view, creativity by individuals and teams is a starting point for innovation; the first is necessary but not sufficient condition for the second". (Amabile et al, 1996)"Innovation, like many business functions, is a management process that requires specific tools, rules, and discipline." (Davila et al, 2006)

    Definitions taken from Wikipedia

    *Innovation is not only about being creativeIt is about turning knowledge and creative work in products, processes and services

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Tools to Promote Innovation

    *This clearly demonstrates that innovation is a management discipline

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    Six Myths of Creativity

    MythResearch Results (Teresa Amabile, Harvard)Creativity Comes From Creative Types Anyone with normal intelligence is capable of doing some degree of creative workMoney Is a Creativity MotivatorThe handful of people spending a lot of time wondering about their bonuses were doing very little creative thinkingTime Pressure Fuels CreativityCreativity requires an incubation period; people need time to soak in a problem and let the ideas bubble upFear Forces BreakthroughsPeople are more likely to have a breakthrough if they were happy the day beforeCompetition Beats Collaboration When people compete for recognition, they stop sharing informationA Streamlined Organization Is a Creative OrganizationPeople's fear of the unknown led them to basically disengage from the work

    *Teresa Amabile heads the Entrepreneurial Management Unit at Harvard Business School and devotes her entire research program to the study of creativityOver a period of eight years she collected nearly 12,000 daily journal entries from 238 people working on creative projects.She didn't tell the study participants that she was focusing on creativity. She simply asked them, in a daily email, about their work and their work environment as they experienced it that day. She then coded the emails for creativity by looking for moments when people struggled with a problem or came up with a new idea.

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    The Computing PlatformAikens Law, 1947: Only 6 computers needed to perform all calculations in the USBatch On-line Client/Server/ERP/CRM Web SOA POA? EDA? Something completely different?Driven by forces like

    Technical inventionsGlobalizationBusiness changes like mergers and acquisitionsChanging expectations by users, customers, and partners

    *Howard Aiken was a professor at Harvard and took initiative to build the Automatic Sequence Controlled Calculator computer together with IBM in 1943

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    DecouplingThe first systems were tightly coupled Operating System-Data-Business Logic-Presentation monolithsOperating systems and applications were separatedData was separated using database management systems (network, hierarchical, relational etc.)Presentation was separated using client/server, GUI, and Web InterfacesApplication components were decoupled from each other using APPC, EDI, RPC, RMI, and Web Services/SOAPBusiness rules, processes, and control logic were separated using Business Process Management Systems

    *For years we have been discussing decoupling or separation of data, applications and presentation layers.The newer architectures are based on this decoupling, and it often turns out in practice that decoupling has been technical and physical and not separated the layers logically. This becomes a major problem in many reengineering projects

    GUIDE SHARE EUROPEMay 2006*

    A Counter-Trend to DecouplingCase tools in the 1990es like IEF/COOL:Gen derived applications and data so strongly from business models that data was effectively owned by specific applications

    This is a problem for current reengineering projects, because an enterprise data model is difficult to implementShrink-wrapped ERP packages like SAP and Siebel is a new generation of monoliths

    In practical life you cannot access or understand SAP relational data outside the SAP systemSAP opens up to SOA architectures by defining itself as the core and providing the ESB

    *