the economics of co2 capture outline of talk for enhanced

1

The Economics of COThe Economics of CO22 Capture Capture for Enhanced Oil Recovery and for Enhanced Oil Recovery and

Climate Change MitigationClimate Change Mitigation

Edward S. RubinDepartment of Engineering and Public Policy

Department of Mechanical EngineeringCarnegie Mellon University

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Presentation to the

Atlantic CouncilWashington, DC

June 20, 2012E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Outline of TalkOutline of Talk

• Status of CO2 capture technology• Opportunities for enhanced oil recovery• The costs of CO2 captured and avoided• The outlook for advanced capture systems• Challenges moving forward

Status of COStatus of CO22 capture technology capture technology

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Many Ways to Capture COMany Ways to Capture CO22

MEACausticOther

Chemical

SelexolRectisolOther

Physical

Absorption

AluminaZeoliteActivated C

Adsorber Beds

Pressure SwingTemperature SwingWashing

Regeneration Method

Adsorption Cryogenics

PolyphenyleneoxidePolydimethylsiloxane

Gas Separation

Polypropelene

Gas Absorption

Ceramic BasedSystems

Membranes Microbial/AlgalSystems

CO2 Separation and Capture

Choice of technology depends strongly on application

2

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Leading Candidates for CCUSLeading Candidates for CCUS

• Large industrial sources of CO2 such as: Gas processing, refineries, petrochemical plants Hydrogen and ammonia production plants Pulp and paper plants Cement plants

• Fossil fuel power plants Pulverized coal combustion (PC) Natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) Integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC)


For these applications, various For these applications, various stages of technology developmentstages of technology development

• Commercial use

• Full-scale demonstration plant

• Pilot plant scale

• Laboratory or bench scale

• Conceptual design


Commercial Post-Combustion Systems for Industrial CO2 Capture

BP Natural Gas Processing Plant(In Salah, Algeria)

Source: IEA GHG, 2008

Post-Combustion CO2 Capture at Coal-Fired Power Plants

Warrior Run Power Plant(Cumberland, Maryland, USA)

(Sou

rce:

(IEA

GH

G)

Shady Point Power Plant(Panama, Oklahoma, USA)

(Sou

rce:

ABB

Lum

mus

)


3

Post-Combustion CO2 Capture at a Gas-Fired Power Plant


(Sou

rce:

Flo

ur D

anie

l)

Bellingham Cogeneration Plant(Bellingham, Massachusetts, USA)

(Sou

rce:

Sue

z Ene

rgy

Gen

erat

ion)

)

Coal Gasification to Produce SNG(Beulah, North Dakota, USA)

(Sou

rce:

Dak

ota

Gas

ifica

tion

Petcoke Gasification to Produce H2(Coffeyville, Kansas, USA)

(Sou

rce:

Che

vron

-Tex

aco)

Commercial Pre-CombustionCO2 Capture Systems



DOEDOE--Supported DemonstrationsSupported DemonstrationsPerformer Location Capture

TechnologyCapture Rate

(m tons/y)Target

FormationStart Date

NRG Energy Thompsons, TX Amine ~0.5 EOR 2015

FutureGen Alliance Meredosia, IL Oxy 1.0 EOR/Saline 2015

PC Power Plants

Industrial Processes

Leucadia Energy Lake Charles

Lake Charles, LA Rectisol 4.0 EOR 2014

Air Products Port Arthur, TX Amine 1.0 EOR 2013

Archer Daniels Midland

Decatur, IL Amine 1.0 Saline 2014

IGCC Power Plants\Summit Texas Clean

EnergyOdessa, TX Selexol 3.0 EOR 2014

Southern Company Kemper County, MS

Selexol 2.0 EOR 2014

Hydrogen Energy California

Kern County, CA Rectisol 2.0 EOR/Saline 2016

Source: USDOE, 2012 E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Can EOR Stimulate Capture Can EOR Stimulate Capture Technology Deployment?Technology Deployment?

• What is the outlook for EOR production?

• What is the economic value of CO2 for EOR?

• What is the availability and cost of providing CO2 from various sources?

• Is there a significant role for power plants?

• In the context of climate change mitigation, is CO2 -EOR a safe and secure method of carbon sequestration?

4


Growth of COGrowth of CO22--EOR Production EOR Production in the United Statesin the United States

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year

GULF COAST/OTHERMID-CONTINENTROCKY MOUNTAINSPERMIAN BASIN

JAF2010_031.XLS

Source: Advanced Resources Int’l., 2011, based on Oil and Gas Journal, 2010.

Incr

emen

tal O

il R

ecov

ery

(bar

rels

/day

)

Significant further growth is constrained by lack of CO2 supplies


Sources of COSources of CO22 Supply for Supply for EOR Operations in the U.S. EOR Operations in the U.S.

Source: P. DiPietro, NETL, 2012


COCO22 Sources for EOR FloodsSources for EOR Floods

Source: P. DiPietro, NETL, 2012

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie MellonSource: P. DiPietro, NETL, 2012

5


Future COFuture CO22 Supply Scenario Supply Scenario (Based on (Based on Best Current PracticesBest Current Practices for COfor CO22--EOR Technologies)EOR Technologies)

Source: P. DiPietro and C. Nichols, NETL, 2012

• 24 billion bbl of CO2-EOR resources • 9 B mt CO2 demand• 5.5 MMmt CO2/yr growth in CO2 demand• 46 MMmtCO2/yr from industrial vents• Peak dilute sources is 156 MMmtCO2/yr • 45% of CO2 from dilute sources

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2030 2050 2070 2090


Future EOR Production ScenarioFuture EOR Production Scenario(Based on (Based on ““Next GenerationNext Generation”” COCO22--EOR Technologies)EOR Technologies)

Sources: V. Kuuskraa, ARI. 2011 and P. DiPietro, NETL, 2012;

Next Generation CO2-EORtechnologies:

• Significant improvements to today’s technology

• Application to residual oil zones (ROZs)

• Integration of CO2-EOR and CO2storage

• Advanced near-miscible/immiscible technology

• Deployment in offshore oil fields and Alaska


Future COFuture CO22 Supply Scenario Supply Scenario (Based on (Based on ““Next GenerationNext Generation”” COCO22--EOR Technologies)EOR Technologies)

• 60 billion bbl of CO2-EOR resources • 17 B mt CO2 demand• 7 MMmt CO2 /yr growth in CO2 demand• 46 MMmtCO2/yr from industrial vents• Peak dilute sources is 214 MMmtCO2/yr • 63% of CO2 from dilute sources

Source: P. DiPietro and C. Nichols, NETL, 2012

Significant potential for power plants to contribute to EOR

CO2 supplies after ~2030

The costs of capturing and The costs of capturing and sequestering COsequestering CO22


6


Many Recent CCS Cost StudiesMany Recent CCS Cost Studies• 2005: IPCC Special Report on CCS• 2007: Rubin, et al., Energy Policy• 2007: EPRI Report No. 1014223• 2007: DOE/NETL Report 2007/1281• 2007: MIT Future of Coal Report• 2008: EPRI Report No. 1018329• 2009: Chen & Rubin, Energy Policy• 2009: ENCAP Report D.1.2.6• 2009: IEAGHG Report 2009/TR-3• 2009: EPRI Report No. 1017495• 2010: Carnegie Mellon IECM v. 6.4• 2010: UK DECC, Mott MacDonald Report• 2010: Kheshgi, et al., SPE 139716-PP• 2010: DOE/NETL Report 2010/1397• 2010: DOE EIA Cost Update Report• 2011: OECD/IEA Working Paper• 2011: Global CCS Institute Update


My ObservationsMy Observations

• Despite many recent studies on the cost of CO2capture and storage (CCS) there remain significant differences in underlying costing methods (as well as key assumptions) that are often not readily apparent.

• Such differences contribute to significant confusion, misunderstanding and (in some cases) the mis-representation of CO2 abatement costs, especially among audiences unfamiliar with details of CCS costing.


Audiences for (and Sources of) Audiences for (and Sources of) Cost EstimatesCost Estimates

GovernmentGovernment

• Policymakers

• Analysts

• Regulators

• R&D agencies

Source: Based on Herzog, 2011

Industryndustry

• Operators

• Vendors

• A&E firms

• Venture capital

• Tech developers

• R&D orgs

NGOsNGOs

• Environmental

• Media

• Academia

• Foundations


A Hierarchy of Methods A Hierarchy of Methods to Estimate CCUS Coststo Estimate CCUS Costs

• Ask an expert

• Use published values

• Modify published values

• Derive new results from a model

• Commission a detailed engineering study

7


Common Measures of CCS CostCommon Measures of CCS Cost

• Cost of CO2 avoided

• Cost of CO2 captured

• Increased capital cost

• Increased cost of electricity


Dollars per Ton Dollars per Ton

• This is the metric most commonly used in technical and policy forums to quantify the cost of CCS (as well as other methods of reducing carbon emissions)

• Also the measure that is most easily misunderstood and misapplied


Cost of COCost of CO2 2 AvoidedAvoided

• This widely used metric gives the cost of reducing a ton of CO2 emissions while still providing a unit of useful product (e.g., a MWh of delivered electricity)

• It should (but often does not) include the full chain of CCS processes, i.e., capture, transport and storage (emissions are not avoided until sequestered)

• It is a relative cost measure that is very sensitive to the choice of reference plant without CCS

($/MWh)ccs – ($/MWh)ref

(t CO2/MWh)ref – (t CO2/MWh)ccs

($/t CO2)=


Cost of COCost of CO2 2 avoided is sensitive to avoided is sensitive to assumed reference plant w/o CCSassumed reference plant w/o CCS

20

40

60

80

100

120

Cos

t of E

lect

ricity

($ /

MW

h)

00 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

CO2 Emission Rate (tonnes / MWh)

PCNGCC

NGCC-CCS

20

40

60

80

100

120

Cos

t of E

lect

ricity

($ /

MW

h)20

40

60

80

100

120

Cos

t of E

lect

ricity

($ /

MW

h)

00 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

CO2 Emission Rate (tonnes / MWh)

PCNGCC

NGCC-CCS

Cost and emissions data from NETL, 2010

$106/t CO2avoided

$41/t CO2 avoided

∆COE ccs–ref = 34 $/MWh

Different questions require different reference plants

8


Two Additional Measures Two Additional Measures —— Same Same Units, Different MeaningsUnits, Different Meanings

($/MWh)ccs – ($/MWh)reference

(t CO2/MWh)ref – (t CO2/MWh)ccs

• Cost of CO2 Avoided ($/t CO2)

=


(t CO2/MWh)ccs, produced – (t CO2/MWh)ccs

• Cost of CO2 Captured ($/t CO2)

=($/MWh)ccs – ($/MWh)reference


• Cost of CO2 Captured ($/t CO2)($/MWh)ccs – ($/MWh)reference




• Cost of CO2 Captured ($/t CO2)

=

• Cost of CO2 Abated (Reduced) ($/t CO2)($ NPV)ccs – ($ NPV)reference

(t CO2)ref – (t CO2)ccs=


(t CO2)ref – (t CO2)ccs


(t CO2)ref – (t CO2)ccs

($ NPV)ccs – ($ NPV)reference

(t CO2)ref – (t CO2)ccs=

Use with caution!


Cost of Electricity (COE)Cost of Electricity (COE)

COE ($/MWh) (TCC)(FCF) + FOM(CF)(8760)(MW)

+ VOM + (HR)(FC)=

TCC = Total capital cost ($)FCF = Fixed charge factor (fraction)FOM = Fixed operating & maintenance costs ($/yr)VOM = Variable O& M costs, excluding fuel cost ($/MWh)HR = Power plant heat rate (MJ/MWh)FC = Unit fuel cost ($/MJ)CF = Annual average capacity factor (fraction)MW = Net power plant capacity (MW)


Increase in COEIncrease in COE

• A common metric for power plant CCS cost

• Typically reported on a “levelized” basis (LCOE) Implies that all parameters in the COE equation

(including FCF and CF) reflect their levelized value over the life of the plant

• Most studies report LCOE in constant dollars (no inflation effects); some report in current (nominal) dollars, which yield higher values O&M costs are multiplied by a “levelization factor”

calculated from specified rates of inflation and real cost escalations over the plant life.


Many Factors Affect CCS CostsMany Factors Affect CCS Costs• Choice of Power Plant and CCS Technology• Process Design and Operating Variables• Economic and Financial Parameters• Choice of System Boundaries; e.g.,

One facility vs. multi-plant system (regional, national, global) GHG gases considered (CO2 only vs. all GHGs) Power plant only vs. partial or complete life cycle

• Time Frame of Interest First-of-a-kind plant vs. nth plant Current technology vs. future systems Consideration of technological “learning”

9


Ten Ways to Reduce CCUS Costs Ten Ways to Reduce CCUS Costs (Inspired by D. Letterman)(Inspired by D. Letterman)

10. Assume high power plant efficiency 9. Assume high-quality fuel properties8. Assume low fuel cost7. Assume high EOR credits for CO2 stored6. Omit certain capital costs5. Report $/ton CO2 based on short tons4. Assume long plant lifetime3. Assume low interest rate (discount rate)2. Assume high plant utilization (capacity factor)1. Assume all of the above !

. . . and we have not yet considered the CCS technology!E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Current Status of Costing MethodsCurrent Status of Costing Methods

• Various organizations have developed detailed procedures and guidelines for calculating power plant and CCS costs (capital, O&M, COE)

• Across different organizations, however, there are significant differences and inconsistencies in the costing methods that are used


Capital Cost Elements (Recent Studies)Capital Cost Elements (Recent Studies)

IEA GHG (2009) ENCAP (2009) UK DECC (2010)

Direct materials EPC costs Pre‐licencing costs, Technical and design

Labour and other site costs Owner's costs Regulatory + licencing + public enquiry

Engineering fees Total Investment Eng'g, procurement & construction (EPC)

Contingencies Infrastructure / connection costs

Total plant cost (TPC) Total Capital Cost (excluded IDC)

Construction interest

Owner's costs

Working capital

Start‐up costs

Total Capital Requirement (TCR)

USDOE/NETL (2007) USDOE/NETL (2010) USDOE/EIA (2010)

Bare erected cost (BEC) Bare erected cost (BEC) Civil Structural Material & Installation

Eng. & Home Office Fees Eng. & Home Office Fees Mechanical Equip. Supply & Installation

Project Contingency Cost Project Contingency Cost Electrical/I&C Supply and Installation

Process Contingency Cost Process Contingency Cost Project Indirects

Total plant cost (TPC) Total plant cost (TPC) EPC Cost before Contingency and Fee

Pre‐Production Costs Fee and Contingency

Inventory Capital Total Project EPC

Financing costs Owner's Costs (excl. project finance)

Other owner's costs Total Project Cost (excl. finance)

Total overnight cost (TOC)

EPRI (2009)

Process facilities capital

General facilities capital

Eng'g, home office, overhead & fees

Contingencies—project and process

Total plant cost (TPC)

AFUDC (interest & escalation)

Total plant investment (TPI)

Owner's costs: royalties, preproduction costs, Inventory capital, Initial catalyst and chemicals, Land

Total Capital Requirement (TCR)

No consistent set of cost

categories or nomenclature across studies


Category USDOE/NETL (2007) USDOE/NETL (2010) EPRI (2009)

Fixed O&M Operating labor Operating labor Operating labor

Maintenance –labor Maintenance –labor Maintenance costs

Admin. & support labor Admin. & support laborOverhead charges (admin & support labor)Property taxes and insurance

Variable O&M (excl. fuel)

Maintenance – material Maintenance – material Maintenance costs

Consumables (water, chemicals, etc.) Consumables (water, chemicals, etc.) Consumables (water, chemicals, etc.)

Waste disposal Waste disposal Waste disposal

Co‐ or by‐product credit Co‐ or by‐product credit Co‐ or by‐product credit

CO2 transport and storage CO2 transport and storage CO2 transport and storage

Category IEA GHG (2009) UK DECC (2010)

Fixed O&M Operating labour Operating labour

Indicative cost Planned and unplanned maintenance (additional labour, spares and consumables)Administrative and support labour

Insurance and local property taxes Through life capital maintenance

Maintenance cost

Variable O&M (excl. fuel)

Consumables (water, chemicals, etc.) Repair and maintenance costs

By‐products and wastes disposal Residue disposal and treatment

CO2 transport and storage Connection & transmission charges

Insurance

CO2 transport and storage

Carbon price

O&M Cost Elements in Recent StudiesO&M Cost Elements in Recent Studies

No consistent set of cost

categories or nomenclature across studies

10


Elements of Elements of ““OwnerOwner’’s Costss Costs””in Several Recent Studiesin Several Recent Studies

USDOE/NETL (2007)

USDOE/NETL (2010)

EPRI (2009)

IEA GHG (2009)

UK DECC (2010)

(None)Preproduction (Start‐Up) costs

Preproduction (Start‐Up) costs

Feasibility studies (None)

Working capital Prepaid royalties Obtaining permits

Inventory capital Inventory capitalArranging financing

Financing cost Initial catalyst/chem. Other misc. costs

Land Land Land purchase

Other

No consistent set of cost categories or nomenclature across studies


Key Assumptions Also Vary Key Assumptions Also Vary Across StudiesAcross Studies

ParameterUSDOE/NETL USDOE/NETL EPRI IEA GHG UK DECC

2007 2010 2009 2009 2010

Plant Size (PC case) 550 MW (net) 550 MW (net) 750 MW (net) 800 MW (net) 1600 MW (gross)

Capacity Factor 85% 85% 85% 85% (yr 1= 60%) varies yearly

Constant/Current $ Current Current Constant Constant Constant

Discount Rate 10% 10% 7.09% 8% 10%

Plant Book Life (yrs) 20 30 30 25 32‐40 (FOAK)

35‐45 (NOAK)

Capital Charge Factor

no CCS 0.164 0.116 0.121 N/A N/A

w/ CCS 0.175 0.124 0.121 N/A N/A

Variable Cost Levelization Factor

no CCS1.2089 (coal) 1.1618 (other)

1.2676 1.00 1.00 N/A

‐ w/ CCS1.2022 (coal) 1.1568 (other)

1.2676 1.00 1.00 N/A

N/A: not available

Transparency is critical for understanding


Uncertainty, Variability & Bias Uncertainty, Variability & Bias

• Variability and uncertainty can (in principle) be accounted for in costing methods, e.g., via parametric (sensitivity) analysis, choice of parameter values, and/or probabilistic analysis

• Bias can arise in project design specifications and choice of parameters and values for cost estimates Can be difficult to detect or prove Independent (3rd party) evaluations can be helpful

Especially important for evaluating new or emerging technologies


The Devil is in the DetailsThe Devil is in the Details

• Need to improve the consistency, reporting and transparency of costing methods and assumptions to enhance the understanding of CCS costs

11


A CCS Cost Task Force has A CCS Cost Task Force has recommended a path forwardrecommended a path forward

White Paper Contents:• Defining Project Scope and Design• Defining Nomenclature and Cost

Categories for CCS Cost Estimates• Quantifying Elements of CCS Cost• Defining Financial Structure and

Economic Assumptions • Calculating the Costs of Electricity

and CO2 Avoided• Guidelines for CCS Cost Reporting

Dakota Coal Gasification Plant, NDRegina

Bismarck

North Dakota

Saskatchewan CanadaUSA

WeyburnWeyburn

COCO22

Regina

Bismarck

North Dakota

Saskatchewan CanadaUSA

WeyburnWeyburn

COCO22Sources: IEAGHG; NRDC; USDOE

Weyburn Field, Canada


Geological Storage of Captured CO2 with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)

The cost of CCUS vs. CCS The cost of CCUS vs. CCS

E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

Illustrative Cases StudiesIllustrative Cases Studies

• Use the IECM to analyze effect on overall plant cost of varying the price of CO2 sold for EOR for three plant types: PC Plant NGCC Plant IGCC Plant

12


The Integrated Environmental Control The Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) Model (IECM)

• A desktop/laptop computer simulation model developed for DOE/NETL

• Provides systematic estimates of performance, emissions, costs anduncertainties for preliminary design of:

PC, IGCC and NGCC plants All flue/fuel gas treatment systems CO2 capture and storage options

(pre- and post-combustion, oxy-combustion; transport, storage)

• Free and publicly available at: www.iecm-online.com


Illustrative Cases Studies Illustrative Cases Studies (1)(1)

Illinois #6Coal Type

Supercritical PCPlant Type

0.113 / 0.147Fixed Charge Factor (const $ / current $)75%Capacity Factor (levelized)Econamine FG+CO2 Capture System550 MW / 550 MWNet Plant Capacity (Ref / CCS)


LCOE vs. COLCOE vs. CO22 EOR Price EOR Price (SCPC Plant)(SCPC Plant)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 10 20 30 40CO2 Price for EOR ($/tonne CO2)

LCO

E (

cons

tant

201

0 $/

MW

h)

CCS

CCUSRef. SCPC Plant

Ref. +35%

Transport cost = $2/tonne CO2


Avoidance Cost vs. COAvoidance Cost vs. CO22 Price Price (SCPC Plant)(SCPC Plant)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 10 20 30 40 50

CO2 Price for EOR ($/tonne CO2)

Cos

t of C

O2

Avoi

ded

for S

C P

C P

lant

(c

onst

ant 2

010

$/to

nne)

CCS

13


Illustrative Cases Studies Illustrative Cases Studies (2)(2)

GE 7FBGas Turbine Type

NGCCPlant Type

0.113 / 0.147Fixed Charge Factor (const $ / current $)75%Capacity Factor (levelized)Econamine FG+CO2 Capture System527 MW / 455 MWNet Plant Capacity (Ref / CCS)


SCPC vs. NGCCSCPC vs. NGCC

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


LCO

E (

cons

tant

201

0 $/

MW

h)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


LCO

E (c

onst

ant 2

010

$/M

Wh)

SCPC

NGCC

Transport cost = $2/tonne CO2


Sensitivity CasesSensitivity Cases

5490154+discount rate = 30%

5184143+discount rate = 20%

4778134current $, 3% inflation

3659101Base CCS - constant $

Cost of Capture ($/t)

Avoidance Cost ($/t)

LCOE (SCPC-CCS)Case

Many other parameters can affect these results

What is the potential for What is the potential for advanced capture technology? advanced capture technology?


14

53 OFFICE OF FOSSIL ENERGY

Better Capture Technologies Are Emerging

Time to Commercialization

Advanced physical solventsAdvanced chemical solventsAmmoniaCO2 com-pression

Amine solventsPhysical solventsCryogenic oxygen

Chemical loopingOTM boilerBiological processesCAR process

Ionic liquidsMetal organic frameworksEnzymatic membranes

Present

Cos

t Red

uctio

n B

enef

it

5+ years 10+ years 15+ years 20+ years

PBI membranes Solid sorbentsMembrane systemsITMsBiomass co-firing

Post-combustion (existing, new PC)

Pre-combustion (IGCC)

Oxycombustion (new PC)

CO2 compression (all)


A New Paper Looks at DetailsA New Paper Looks at Details


Two Approaches to Estimating Two Approaches to Estimating Potential Cost SavingsPotential Cost Savings

• Method 1: Engineering-Economic Analysis

A “bottom up” approach based on engineering process models, informed by judgments regarding potential improvement in key parameters


Potential Cost Reductions Based on Potential Cost Reductions Based on EngineeringEngineering--Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis

Source: DOE/NETL, 2006

19% -28% reductions in COE w/ CCS

3128

19

12 10

5 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

A B C D E F G

7.13(c/kWh)

7.01(c/kWh)

6.14(c/kWh) 6.03

(c/kWh)

5.75(c/kWh)

5.75(c/kWh)

6.52(c/kWh)

SelexolSelexolAdvanced

SelexolAdvanced

Selexol

AdvancedSelexol w/co-Sequestration

AdvancedSelexol w/co-Sequestration

AdvancedSelexol w/ITM

& co-Sequestration

AdvancedSelexol w/ITM

& co-Sequestration

WGS Membrane& Co-Sequestration

WGS Membrane& Co-Sequestration

WGS Membrane w/ITM & Co-

Sequestration

WGS Membrane w/ITM & Co-

Sequestration

Chemical Looping& Co-

Sequestration

Chemical Looping& Co-

Sequestration

Perc

ent I

ncre

ase

in C

OE

IGCCIGCC70 69

5550 52

45

22

01020304050607080

A B C D E F G

`

8.77(c/kWh)

8.72(c/kWh)

8.00(c/kWh)

7.74(c/kWh)

7.48(c/kWh)

7.84(c/kWh)

y

Perc

ent I

ncre

ase

in C

OE

SC w/AmineScrubbingSC w/AmineScrubbing

SC w/EconamineScrubbingSC w/EconamineScrubbing

SC w/AmmoniaCO2 ScrubbingSC w/AmmoniaCO2 Scrubbing

SC w/MultipollutantAmmonia Scrubbing(Byproduct Credit)

SC w/MultipollutantAmmonia Scrubbing(Byproduct Credit)

USC w/AmineScrubbingUSC w/AmineScrubbing USC w/Advanced

Amine ScrubbingUSC w/AdvancedAmine Scrubbing

6.30 (c/kWh)

RTI RegenerableSorbentRTI RegenerableSorbent

PCPC

50

3326

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

A B C D

`

6.97(c/kWh)

6.62(c/kWh)

6.35(c/kWh)

y y

Perc

ent I

ncre

ase

in C

OE Advanced

Subcritical Oxyfuel(Cryogenic ASU)

AdvancedSubcritical Oxyfuel(Cryogenic ASU)

AdvancedSupercritical Oxyfuel

(Cryogenic ASU)

AdvancedSupercritical Oxyfuel

(Cryogenic ASU)Advanced

Supercritical Oxyfuel(ITM O2)

Advanced Supercritical

Oxyfuel(ITM O2)

7.86(c/kWh)

Current StateSupercritical Oxyfuel

(Cryogenic ASU)

Current StateSupercritical Oxyfuel

(Cryogenic ASU) OxyfuelOxyfuel

15


Source: DOE/ NETL, 2010

Potential Cost Reductions Based on Potential Cost Reductions Based on EngineeringEngineering--Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis

-5

15

35

55

75

95

115

135

155

175

IGCC Today

IGCC w/ CCS Today

IGCC w/ CCS with R&D

Supercritical PC Today

Supercritical PC w/ CCS …

Adv Combustion w/ CCS …

$/M

Wh

($20

09)

CCSwith

NoR&D

NoCCS

CCSwith R&D

CCSwith

NoR&D

NoCCS

CCSwith R&D

Pulverized Coal TechnologiesIGCC Technologies

27% reduction31% reduction

7% below no CCS

29% above no CCS


Two Approaches to Estimating Two Approaches to Estimating Future Technology CostsFuture Technology Costs

• Method 1: Engineering-Economic Analysis

A “bottom up” approach based on engineering process models, informed by judgments regarding potential improvements in key process parameters

• Method 2: Use of Historical Experience Curves

A “top down” approach based on applications of mathematical “learning curves” or “experience curves” that reflect historical trends for analogous technologies or systems


Empirical Empirical ““Learning CurvesLearning Curves””

• Cost trends modeled as a log-linear relationship between unit cost and cumulative production or capacity: y = ax –b

• Case studies used for power plant components: Flue gas desulfurization systems (FGD) Selective catalytic reduction systems (SCR) Gas turbine combined cycle system (GTCC) Pulverized coal-fired boilers (PC) Liquefied natural gas plants (LNG) Oxygen production plants (ASU) Hydrogen production plants (SMR)

20000

10000

5000

1000

10010 100 1000 10000 100000

1982

1987

1963

1980

Windmills (USA)

RD&D Commercialization

USAJapan

Cumulative MW installed

19811983

500

Photovoltaics

Gas turbines (USA)

US(

1990

)$/k

W

19951992

200

2000

Source: IIASA, 1996

20000

10000

5000

1000

10010 100 1000 10000 100000

1982

1987

1963

1980

Windmills (USA)


USAJapan


19811983

500

Photovoltaics

Gas turbines (USA)

US(

1990

)$/k

W

19951992

200

2000

20000

10000

5000

1000

10010 100 1000 10000 100000

1982

1987

1963

1980

Windmills (USA)


USAJapan


19811983

500

Photovoltaics

Gas turbines (USA)

US(

1990

)$/k

W

19951992

200

2000

Source: IIASA, 1996


Projected Cost Reductions for Projected Cost Reductions for Power Plants with COPower Plants with CO22 CaptureCapture

(after 100 GW of cumulative CCS capacity worldwide)(after 100 GW of cumulative CCS capacity worldwide)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Perc

ent R

educ

tion

in C

OE

NGCC PC IGCC Oxyfuel

% REDUCTION• Plant-level learning

curves developed from component-level analyses

• Upper bound of ranges are similar to estimates from “bottom-up”analyses

16


ConclusionsConclusions

• Significant potential to reduce the cost of carbon capture via: New or improved CO2 capture technologies

Improved plant efficiency and utilization

Challenges for advanced Challenges for advanced CCS technology CCS technology



Most New Capture Concepts Are Most New Capture Concepts Are Far from Commercial Availability Far from Commercial Availability

Source: NASA, 2009

Technology Readiness Levels

Source: EPRI, 2009

Post-Combustion Capture


Typical Cost Trend for a Typical Cost Trend for a New TechnologyNew Technology

Research Development Demonstration Deployment Mature TechnologyResearchResearch Development Development DemonstrationDemonstration DeploymentDeployment Mature TechnologyMature Technology

Time or Cumulative Capacity

Cap

ital C

ost p

er U

nit o

f Cap

acity

Research Development Demonstration Deployment Mature TechnologyResearchResearch Development Development DemonstrationDemonstration DeploymentDeployment Mature TechnologyMature Technology

Time or Cumulative Capacity

Cap

ital C

ost p

er U

nit o

f Cap

acity

Source: Based on EPRI, 2008

17


Most new concepts take decades to Most new concepts take decades to commercializecommercialize……many never make itmany never make it

1965 1970 19801975 19901985 1995 20052000

1999: 10 MW pilot planned by DOE

1975: DOE conducts test of fluidized bed system

1961:Process described by Bureau of Mines

1973: Used in commercial refinery in Japan

1970: Results of testing published.

1971: Test conducted in Netherlands

1967: Pilot-Scale Testing begins.

1979: Pilot-scale testing conducted in Florida

1984: Continued pilot testing with 500 lb/hr feed

1992: DOE contracts design and modeling for 500MW plant

1996: DOE continues lifecycle testing

2002: Paper published at NETL symposium

2006: Most recent paper published

1983: Rockwell contracted to improve system

Copper Oxide Process

1965 1970 19801975 19901985 1995 20052000

1999: Process used at plant in Poland

1985: Pilots initiated in U.S. and Germany

1977: Ebara begins pilot-scale testing

1998: Process used in plant in Chengdu, China

1970: Ebara Corporation begins lab scale testing.

2005: Process used in plant in Hangzhou, China

2008: Paper on process presented at WEC forum in Romania

2002: Process used in plant in Beijing, China

Electron Beam Process

1965 1970 19801975 19901985 1995 20052000

1991: NoxsoCorporation receives DOE contract

1982: Pilot-scale tests carried out in Kentucky

1985: DOE conducts lifecycle testing.

1979: Development of process begins

1998: NoxsoCorporation liquidated. Project terminated.

1996: Construction of full scale test begins

2000: Noxsoprocess cited in ACS paper, Last NOXSO patent awarded

1997: NoxsoCorporation declares bankruptcy

1993: Pilot-scale testing complete

NOXSO Process

Development timelines for three novel processes for

combined SO2 –NOx capture


Need to Need to Accelerate the Pace of InnovationAccelerate the Pace of Innovation

InventionAdoption

(limited use ofearly designs)

Diffusion(improvement & widespread use)

Innovation (new or better

product)

LearningBy Doing

LearningBy Using

R&D


The CCSI Initiative to Accelerate The CCSI Initiative to Accelerate New Capture SystemsNew Capture Systems

Source: DOE/ NETL, 2011E.S. Rubin, Carnegie Mellon

The Critical Role of PolicyThe Critical Role of Policy

• The pace and direction of innovations in carbon capture technology will be strongly influenced by climate and energy policies—and their role in establishing markets for CCUS technologies

18


Thank YouThank You

[email protected]@cmu.edu

the economics of co2 capture outline of talk for enhanced

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