the collaboration of disruptive technology

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The Collaboration of Disruptive Technology

The Future is about technology and a lot more. It is about how do we use emerging technologies such as new types of mobile platforms, html5, the Cloud redefined, the movement of social into the business world and the rapid fire introductions of new

technology? Disruptive technologies will change the landscape even more. How can we balance the fast pace of innovation with both workforce and our own life balance?ba a ce t e ast pace o o at o t bot o o ce a d ou o e ba a ce

This session will provide the audience with a future perspective, not only where technology is headed but how it will impact our businesses and the way we work. The line between all

aspects of technology, business, and family is blurring as the trend to bring your own technology to work and connect it to the network accelerates. Where is this future heading?

The Collaboration of Disruptiveof Disruptive Technology

David SmithCEO [email protected]/in/davidsmithaustin

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Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc

KnowledgeEconomy

InformationExplosion

Challenges in the 21st century

Safety & Security

Finite

InternationalPartnerships

GlobalizationAccelerating Change

ComplexTechnologies

DiverseWorkforce

SustainableDevelopment

Resources

Life-LongLearning Citizen

Engagement

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Information and Communication Trends

• Seamless Interoperability Between Heterogeneous Networks

M bili f All• Mobility for All

• User Centered Content-Based Information Access

• Agents Take Over Routine Work

“E” P f B i d P i t Lif• “E”- Processes for Business and Private Life

• Human Computer Interaction is Turning Into Human Computer Cooperation

Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.


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The Limits of Technology

• The laws of physics

• The laws of software

Fundamental

• The challenge of algorithms

• The difficulty of distribution

• The problems of design

• The importance of organization

• The impact of economics• The impact of economics

• The influence of politics

• The limits of human imaginationHuman

Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.

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The Growth Of Complexity

DODweapon

HigherTechnical

Complexity

LowerManagementComplexity

HigherManagementComplexity

weaponsystem

National AirTraffic ControlSystem

Telecom switch

Large-scalesimulation

DODmanagementinformation

Enterpriseinformationsystems

Enterpriseapplication

Smallscientificsimulation

Embeddedautomotiveapplication Commercial

compiler

informationsystemBusiness

spreadsheet

LowerTechnical

Complexity

What use could this company make of an electrical toy?

With those words, William Orton, president of Western Union, dismissed the newfangled gadget offered to himthe newfangled gadget offered to him for $100,000 in 1876.

Other leading lights echoed his skepticism.

“An interesting novelty,” financier J.P.g yMorgan huffed.

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Change, Uncertainty, and Complexity

Technology Acceleration

Intangible

Virtual WorldsEconomic & Financial

Russia - China

Cyber Warfare

K-12 Science& Math Crisis

IntangibleCapital

Offshore Competition

Global TalentExplosion

English as 2nd

Terrorism

Pandemic

3 Billion New Capitalists

Demographics

p

Regional EconomicDislocation

English as 2nd

Economic Unions

Flat Wages End of Moore’s Law

Disruptors can be:

Technology

Regulatory

Economic

Civil

Natural Disasters

…

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Business, Knowledge, and Innovation Landscape

• Typically 80% of the key knowledge (and value) is held

by 20% of the people – we need to get it to the right y p p g g

people

• Only 20% of the knowledge in an organization is

typically used (the rest being undiscovered or under-

utilized)

• 80-90% of the products and services today will be80 90% of the products and services today will be

obsolete in 10 years – companies need to innovate &

invent faster

Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.

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New Economic Superpowers in 2050?

Innovation is Accelerating

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The “Fat Pipe”

Broadband and Online Households

80%

90%

100%

ds

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ho

us

eh

old

Broadband A

ccess

BroadbandHouseholds

OnlineHouseholds

0%

10%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

Source: Technology Futures, Inc.

2008

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Growth of Broadband Users

3,500

4,000

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000M

illio

ns

of

Us

ers

World B

roadband 20

CellularSubscribers

InternetUsers

BroadbandUsers

0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Source: Technology Futures, Inc.

005

Historical Data Source: ITU

Users


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From http://geekandpoke.typepad.com

A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that has:• A user interface that makes the infrastructure underlying the service transparent to the

user• Near-zero incremental management costs when additional IT resources are added• A service management platform

Industry Trends Leading to Cloud Computing

2010

Grid Computing

• Solving large problems with parallel computing

Software as a Service

• Network-based subscriptions to applications

• Gained momentum in 2001

Cloud Computing

• Next-Generation Internet computing

• Next-Generation Data Centers

19901998

2000

Utility Computing

• Offering computing resources as a metered service

• Introduced in late • Made mainstream by

Globus Alliance1990s


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A Crisis of Complexity. The Need for Progress is Clear.

Explosion of information driving 54% growth in storage shipments every year.

1.5x

85% idleIn distributed computing environments up to

70¢ per $170% on average is spent on maintaining current IT infrastructures versus adding new capabilities.

environments, up to 85% of computing capacity sits idle.

70%+ Neverrecover

Of business never recover from a major data disaster. Howard Levenson, IBM

Annual Operating Costs Are Out Of Control

Worldwide IT Spending on Servers, Power, Coolingand Management/Administration

$250

4

50

Power and Cooling Costs

PhysicalServer InstalledBase (Millions)

SpendingUS$(B)

$100

$150

$200

20

25

30

35

40

45Power and Cooling CostsServer Mgt and Admin CostsNew Server Spending

$0

$50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

5

10

15

IDC

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The “Cloud Pyramid”

Build upon a foundation

Layers equate structureLayers equate structure

Building blocks: Infrastructure, Platforms, Applications

Breadth vs. Niche


The “Cloud Pyramid” Inversed

1000’s of Cloud Applications currently

Handful of Cloud PlatformsHandful of Cloud Platforms

Elite group of Cloud Infrastructure providers

# of Marketplace providers


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Ubiquitous Connectivity

010 © HBMG, Inc

For the rest of the world, this is the Internet


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EmbeddednessThe Invisible Computer

EmbeddednessDigital convergence technologies will “form the invisible technical infrastructure for human actionanalogousinfrastructure for human actionanalogous to the visible infrastructure provided by buildings and cities.”

Embeddedness is driven by cost-effective computing, Moore’s Law, miniaturization, ubiquitous communication, and advanced

t i l d i d imaterials and sensing devices.

In 2000, 98% of computing devices sold are embedded in products and are not apparent to the product’s user.


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Exposures

1. Increased Dependency on Complex Technologies and Business Processes

2. Steep Decline of Barriers to Trade

3. Speed of Transactions

4. The Death of Distance

5. The Adoption of Advanced Communications

6. Consolidation/Transformation of Traditional Industries

7. The Internet and the Abundance of Information

8. Infrastructure

9. Overcommitted Agencies

10.Changing Social Constructs

Threats and Vulnerabilities– What’s at Stake

• Critical Infrastructures

• Key Resources

• New Resources

– The Case for Action• Cyber Threats

• Insider Threats

• External Threats

• Cyber Terrorism

• Physical Attacks

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Risk Management And Needed Security

Unacceptable RiskUnacceptable Risk

HighHigh

mpa

ctm

pact

Acceptable RiskAcceptable Risk

Impa

ct to

bus

ines

s

Bus

ines

s de

fines

imB

usin

ess

defin

es im

Risk management drives risk to an acceptable level

Security engineering defines probabilitySecurity engineering defines probability

Probability of exploitLowLow HighHigh

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Common Infrastructure for Digital Information


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Characteristics of Agents

Agents coordinate and negotiate to achieve

common goals

Agents dynamically adaptto and learn abouttheir environment

Adaptive

Autonomous Mobile Interoperate

CooperativeSocial

PersonalityIntelligentAgents

InformationAgents

Agents are goal directedand act on theirown performing

tasks on your behalf

Agents moveto where they

are needed

Agents interoperatewith humans, other, legacy systems, and information sources


Autonomic Networks

Self-configuring : Adapt automatically to the dynamically changing

Self-healing:Discover, diagnose, and react todynamically changing

environments of link and node failures.

Self-optimizing: Monitor and tune resources automatically during an attack to minimize its attack during and in the

and react todisruptions from catastrophes and attacks.

Self-protecting:Anticipate, detect, identify, and protect against attacks from anywhere (safety )

SelfSelf--HealingHealing

SelfSelf--ProtectingProtecting

SelfSelf--OptimizingOptimizing

SelfSelf--ConfiguringConfiguring

attack during and in the aftermath.

anywhere (safety.)

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Digital Convergence—Drivers for a New Technology Revolution

• Business and Social Globalization• “Always-On” Generationsy• Virtual Worlds• Universal Access and Exchange of

Information• Digitalization• Real Time in Business and Personal• Sustainable• New Lifestyles


Convergence is…

1. Interfacing of mission critical systems– Zero time provisioning & de-provisioning– Employees continue to use the tools that they’ve always used– Event correlation & forensics

2. One card solutions for physical security and IT– Leverage investments– Reduced total cost of ownership

3. Software controlled processes– User self-service web portals with e-mail notificationsUser self service web portals with e mail notifications– Automation with audit trails (e.g. – compliance ready)– Risk management

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The Good Old Days for PC

For a long time way back in “Ye Olde Days,” traditional IT management pretended that PCs didn’t exist. (Would you like some COBOL with your MVS system?)

While they were in “denial,” people bought the PCs they wanted and “administered” them themselves.

Productivity increased immensely, at least for a while

42

y y,

While that sometimes worked well, other times chaos reigned

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The Modern Era

Today's more closely managed “enterprise” model was the response to that anarchy.

At some sites, standardized PC configurations are purchased and tightly locked down and are then centrally administered.

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Does The Following Sound Familiar?

Users find mobile devices useful.

Some IT folks find mobile devices threatening, or easy to dismiss, or too expensive, or simply irrelevant.

Users buy what they want and use them in innovate ways

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Even as cloud take hold, the IT landscapeis changing rapidly…

Technology is rapidly being commoditized

Businesses are more willing and able to shop for IT services

In-house IT infrastructure is increasingly seen asincreasingly seen as complex and rigid

© Harvard Business Review


The Flip-Flop is Here!

Most technology in the hands of consumers today –mobile phones, broadband net orking comp ters and printers llnetworking, computers and printers– all started out in business applications.

• NOW, individualconsumers will bring theconsumers will bring the technology back into the workplace.

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Motorola Atrix 4G

47There’s also a laptop dock for the Atrix 4G now…

Company App Stores

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Hierarchy of Needs


Collaboration Technologies


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Competing in a Global Business EnvironmentTaylor’s Law(1910 – 1950s)Scientific Management

Sarnoff’s Law(1960 - 1980)“Human Side” Management

Metcalfe’s Law(1980 - 2000)Quality Management Era

Reed’s Law(2000 - Future)E-Manufacturing

Value Chain Value Shop

Firm Infrastructure

Human Resources Management

Technology Development

ProcurementProblem Finding Problem

Firm InfrastructureHuman Resources ManagementTechnology DevelopmentProcurement

InfrastructureSupport

Value Created by Transforming Inputs Into Products

Value Created by Providing Solutions, Not Services

Value Created in the AssemblyLine (Operations) Value Created By

Self Forming Groups

Inbound Logistics

Operations OutboundLogistics

Marketing & Sales

After-sales Service

Problem Finding& Acquisition Solving

Control/ Evaluation Execution

ChoiceSimon’s Problem Solving Model


Sarnoff’s Law –1960s to mid 1980s

For one-way broadcast communication, the value of the network itself rises proportionally to N, the potential number of listeners.

Value Chain

Inbound Logistics

Operations Outbound Logistics

Marketing & Sales

AfterSales-Service

Firm Infrastructure



Procurement

Val

ue

Sarnoff

Value created by transforming inputs into products N


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Internet Direction

Mainframe


Metcalfe’s Law — Mid 1980s to 2000s

The value of a network increases exponentially with the number of nodes – N2. A network becomes more useful as more users are connected.

Value Shop

Problem Finding& Acquisition

Problem Solving

Choice


Simon’s Problem Solving Model


Val

ue Sarnoff

Metcalfe


Value created by providing solutions, not services

V

N


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Internet Direction

Servers


Reed’s Law — 2001 and into the future

Any system that lets users create and maintain groups creates a set of group-forming options that increase exponentially with the number of potential members. And as a function, 2N dominates N2 - which means that even if each individual group-forming option is worth much less than an individual connection, eventually the total set of group-forming options will have far more option value.

Val

ue

Reed

Value NetworkMediating technology facilitates exchange relationships

Network Promotion and Contract Management• Invite and select

customers to join network


Service Provisioning

• EstablishInfrastructure Operation

N

SarnoffMetcalfe

network

• Initialize, manage, and terminate contracts

• Establish, maintain and terminate links

• Billing for value received

Operation• Maintain and

run physical and information network


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Internet Direction


Problem Finding Problem



Firm Infrastructure



Procurement

Competing in a Global Business EnvironmentTaylor’s Law(1910 – 1950s)Scientific Management

Sarnoff’s Law(1960 - 1980)“Human Side” Management

Metcalfe’s Law(1980 - 2000)Quality Management Era

Reed’s Law(2000 - Future)E-Manufacturing

Value Chain Value Shop

Problem Finding& Acquisition Solving


ChoiceSimon’s Problem Solving ModelInbound Logistics

Operations OutboundLogistics

Marketing & Sales

After-sales Service

Value Created by Transforming Inputs Into Products

Value Created by Providing Solutions, Not Services

•Standardization Parts and Processes

•Economies of Scale

•Producer-Centric Design, Mfg., and Delivery

•Stable Relationships

•Price Conscious

•Producer Led Design

•Global Companies

Regionalism

•Lean Manufacturing

•Shift to Horizontal Structure

•Focus on Core Competency

•Reliability and Durability

•Consumer Centric Design and Delivery

•Flat Corporate Structures

•Collaborative Virtual Networks

Value Created in the AssemblyLine (Operations)

Value Created By Self Forming Groups

Delivery

•Vertical Orientation

•Required inventory buffers

•Locally Oriented

•Regionalism

•Productivity

•Subsidiaries

•Plant Replication by Region

y y

•Producer Led Design

•Multinational Trade

•Market CentricDesign & Delivery

Networks

•Mass Customization

•Transparency

•Speed and Agility

•Global Orientation


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S-Curve for Innovation, Development, and Product Life

80%

90%

100%

se

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%P

erce

ntag

e of

Inst

alle

d B

as

t∆ t∆ t∆

Product LifeScience & Research

Product Development

0%Time


Research Product LifeDevelopment

Research/Product Life Cycle

Research Product LifeDevelopment

Introduction Preliminary Active Mature Legacy Obsolete


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Research Product LifeDevelopmentResearch Product LifeDevelopment

Product Generation

Product Screening

Concept Development

& Testing

Business & Marketing Strategy

Product Development

—Alpha

Test Marketing—

BetaDeployment



Research Product LifeDevelopmentResearch Product LifeDevelopment

Sand Box DiscoveryBasic Science Experimental

ScienceDirected

ResearchApplied

Research


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A New Regional Model Emerging

Then….

Region ARegion D

Now….

Research

Services

Manufacturing

Development

Trials/Testing

Region G

Region A

Region E

Region B

Region F

Region C

Self-Contained Regional Clusters

Specialized, Networked Regions


From Austin to…

NetworksEmergent

CompaniesNetworksEmergent

Companiesnetworks EmergentCompanies

Network of

NetworksEmergent

Companies


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Borg — a person who wears a Bluetooth enabled telephone headset, especially when not in useespecially when not in use (a reference to the Star Trekaliens who generally have electronic devices on their heads


In Parting: Be Paranoid

“Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business“Sooner or later, something

fundamental in your businessfundamental in your business world will change.”

Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel“Only the Paranoid Survive”

fundamental in your business world will change.”



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In Parting: Be Paranoid

“Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business“Sooner or later, something

fundamental in your businessfundamental in your business world will change.”


fundamental in your business world will change.”



the collaboration of disruptive technology

Technology

technology futures

aspects of technology

o o ce

d ou o of o

business world

world broadband

households broadband

broadband users1