disruptive technology; disruptive research

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DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY,DISRUPTIVE RESEARCH

The Past, Present and Future of Electric Vehicles

Good morning. My name is Mick Nagle and I am the managing Director of Morpace. As some of you will know but others may not we are part of a global agency with specialist auto offices in on 3 continents and we have been carrying research on alternative powertrain and electric vehicle technology with, among others JLR, for more than 20 years

With me on the platform is Ana Ramirez, familiar to many of you in various roles and currently as the manager of global research for Jaguar

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Jaguar FutureConsumer voices- Mick Nagle - Morpace OEM backgroundHistory- Ana Ramirez- Jaguar GCi

Our presentation is a whistle stop tour through an overly ambitious amount of content some of you may know some of this but I dont think all of you will know all of it so hopefully therell something for everyone to get the conference under way

Well sketch out the background to the current frenzy of interest in EVs and Ana will give a client side perspective as to why its happening right now. Ill return briefly to discuss what consumers can and cant tell us about the subject and Ana will finish with an insight into how Jaguar hope to drive the agenda forward in the future.

All of this in 25 minutes which may allow us time for a few questions but for now full speed ahead

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Jaguar FutureConsumer voices OEM backgroundHistory

So first on today of all days we need a little reminder of history and perhaps some challenges to our prejudices and preconceptions (and for any of our UK audience who have not voted please forgo the networking go home and do so at the end of this)3

Electric VehiclesNew Technology?

There may still be a few people out there who thin that electric vehicles are new technology or a least that electric vehicles in the good old days were esoteric or hopelessly impractical machines invented by scientists who had no grasp of commercial realities4

Timeline EV History1800

1828

First electric vehicleAnjos Jedlik, Hungary1900

2000

Not so electric vehicle predate any form of internal combustion engine and by some way. The first electric vehicle was invented in.? 1828 by a Hungarian whose model vehicles wee about 10 cm long, but self powered and mobile5

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1900

2000

Timeline EV History1837

First electric locomotiveRobert Davidson, Aberdeen

The first electric locomotive followed in 1837, an invention so radical that coal worker destroyed early prototypes for fear their steam train based livelihoods would be made redundant6

1800

1900

2000

Timeline EV History1859

Rechargeable batteriesGaston Plant, Paris

Our first disruption is the invention of the rechargeable battery that allowed for commercialisation of electric vehicles limited only by the range they had available between charging7

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1900

2000

Timeline EV History1884

First production electric carThomas Parker, London

This lead to the first electric production vehicle manufactured by Thomas Parker in London in 18848

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1900

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Timeline EV History1900-1920

Golden age of electric vehicles35,000 EVs in US around 1900

And, for a while led to a golden age of electric vehicles when models proliferated and overall sales outnumbered petrol powered vehicles9

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1900

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Timeline EV History1901

Invention of Tarmac

Edgar HooleySurveyor Nottinghamshire County Council

the invention of tarmac in 1901 by a country survey in Nottingham (note on name/patent) who observed that mixing bitumen and aggregate could provide a cheap and quickly manufactured surface for the emerging road infrastructure. In short time the road network boomed, advantaging the petrol powered vehicles that had a longer range vs the city-confined EV of the time10

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1900

2000

Timeline EV History1920-1990

20th Century decline and fall

1967 Britain has the majority of all the electric vehicles in the world

And so electric road vehicles declined and languished such that by the 1960s the world leader in electric vehicles the UK and.milk floats11

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1900

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Timeline EV History1920-1990

A century of failure

Scottish Aviation Scamp 1966AMC Amitron 1967Enfield 8000 1973Sinclair C5 1985

There were some attempts to produce EVs for a modern car-buying public but neither the technology nor the design appealed and all suffered more or less humiliating failure12

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1900

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Timeline EV History1996

Early attempts at real consumer-focused EVGM EV1

The need to be seen to be providing consumers with environmental choices led to the first serious attempts at EVs that could arguably compete at every level with contemporary vehicles. However at this stage battery technology was not sufficiently developed for the car to be practical, the enormous investment required prohibited a viable commercial model and these early attempts rather fizzled out despite high profile support from Hollywood gliterati13

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1900

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Timeline EV History1997-2016

Long-term Strategic VisionToyota Prius Hybrid

Toyota get enormous credit in my view for their commitment to the long-term development of petrol hybrid vehicles and Prius, though winning no prizes for styling especially in its early forms, has become a distinctive, widespread and visible presence on our city streets and is now a preferred mode of transport of London private hire cabs and Leonardo Di Caprio alike. More importantly it has at least to some extent normalised the concept of something other than a conventional diesel or petrol engine. However for many Prius and other hybrids remain a transitional technology, with one foot still firmly in the petro carbon 20th century. 14

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1900

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Timeline EV History2013

Breathtaking Technological and Marketing AmbitionTesla and Model S

When Tesla CEO Elon Musk decided that running paypal and the US space programme was not enough to keep him busy he embarked on his side project to revolutionise the appeal and practicality of electric vehicles first in the US and then throughout the world. His strategy of building both vehicles that conventionally minded consumers could love, infrastructure that facilitated their use and massive investment in developing new battery technology has truly put the cat among the pigeons and forced other brands now raising their game15

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Timeline EV History2016

NOWProliferation of original EV design

Today in 2016 we have a proliferation of original design and innovative EV technology with particular credit to BMW for reinventing the city car and to Renault Nissan for their strategic investment in providing smaller more affordable vehicles for mainstream consumers. However currently its a still a minority of brands and these brands generally have only 1 or 2 products. And this is the dramatic change we are about to see in the next 5 years16

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Timeline EV History2020

2020EV Landscape Evolving

By 2020 we expect to see many brands, including all the European premium brands, enter full EV marketplace. We have seen ambitious announcements from mainstream manufacturers like VW and Toyota about their future plans, while new entrants such as Apple and Google are expected to shake up the traditional brand territories. Is this another false dawn or is now the time when Evs will finally start to reach maturityand17

WHY NOW?

Why is this happening now?18

Embedding InsightConsumer voices OEM backgroundHistory

I will hand over to Ana who will give you a Jaguar Cars perspective on what is driving the current level of activity19

15 new models announced last year

WHY?

Bevolution is the 2020

Everyone has same opportunities

December 3, 2015All New Cars To Be Zero-Emission by 2050

US (California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont), Canada (British Columbia, Qubec), Germany, The Netherlands, Norway, The United Kingdom

WHEN is the question

New emission targets are forcing the industry to invest in BEVs to lower average emission across the fleet

4 UK cities receive 35 million to support EV growthLondonNottingham BristolMilton Keynes`Germany To Give 1 Billion Electric Car Subsidy (April 2016)Chinese Consumers bought 300% more EV,s in 2015 compared to previous year

DECEMBER 2014Only 1 BEV model in 2019

DECEMBER 20151 NEW architecture4 BEV models from 2018

JANUARY 2016Focus on e-tron, Delay other models

DECEMBER 2015700M of investment to expand/update Stuttgart-Zuffenhausen

Boomers

Generation X

Generation Y

Generation Z

UsageCasualMultitaskDevice2DeviceCelebrate diversityCo-createSharersIndependent Thinkers LifestyleFormalCo-operateJudgementalFace2FaceAccept diversityTask FocusedOwnershipSaversWork+Life

recessionSEPTEMBER 11thInternetGlobalisationSocial NetworksTechnology shiftBy 2025 Gen Y and Gen Z will have replaced a big proportion of Boomers in the car market, especially in China (56% of the Market vs 19% of Boomers @2025) and their attitudes and needs will have a big impact on Gen X behaviour

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Generation Y/Z & the cars

MAKE HISTORY(Generating Future Cultural Capital)Attitude over BrandCurre