the bangchak petroleum plc - listed...

Analyst Meeting – 3Q2016

November 14, 2016

The Bangchak Petroleum PLC

AGENDA

2

1 Performance Summary

2 Investment Update

4 Appendix

3 Bangchak Retail Non-Oil Business

AGENDA

3


2 Investment Update

4 Appendix


BCP Group Performance

4The Bangchak Petroleum Plc

Q3/16 Performance Snapshots

9M/16

EBITDA PerformanceUnit: THB Million

Refinery• Consistent high level of crude run • Softer market GRM

Marketing• Maintain 2nd market share• 11% retail sales volume growth (Jan-Sep 16/15) • Satisfied marketing margin

Green Power Plant• BCPG listing on schedule• COD 8.8 MWac of solar power business in Japan

Biofuel• COD of Biodiesel Plant 2 and Ethanol Plant (BBE)• Affected by the government reduced the portion

of B100 mixing with diesel from 7% to 3%

E&P• Galoc oil field recorded an Uptime of 99.3%• Cost reduction continue

4

Refinery51%

Marketing20%

Solar Power21%

Biofuel-2%

E&P6%

EBITDA

2,798THB Million

Q3/16

Refinery42%

Marketing31%

Solar Power22%

Biofuel2%

E&P3%

EBITDA

8,076THB Million

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Accounting Operating

EBITDA Performance - BCP Group


Unit: THB Million

EBITDA Performance

28% YoY

-32% QoQ

Accounting EBITDA

-21% YoY

-10% QoQ

Operating EBITDA2,184

3,5674,085

3,143 2,798 2,833

Refinery Marketing Solar Power Biofuel E&P

Q3/16 EBITDA Performance Compare to Target by Business Unit

Target

1,503MB

607MB

612MB

-65MB

171MB

5

2,833

2,798

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Operating

Accounting

Target3,700

Unit: THB Million

EBITDA Performance - BCP Group

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5

Solar Power1,765

Marketing2,531

Refinery3,389

Biofuel195 E&P

252

9M/16 Performance Compare to Target by Business Unit

Accounting EBITDA 8,076 Million Baht

Unit: THB Million

Target100%

6The Bangchak Petroleum Plc 6

BCP Group Portfolios


Green Power Plant Biofuel E&PRefinery Marketing

7

Refinery Performance: Smooth Operation


Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Domestic Import

16% 13% 12%1%

53% 53% 55%

10% 11% 11%

19% 20% 19%

2% 2% 3%

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Crude SourcingUnit: KBD

Product YieldUnit: %

LPG

Gasoline

Jet

Diesel

Fuel OilUCO

117 112 115

59%

41%

65%

35%

52%

48%

100 96 101 101 98

48

97 102109 112 117 114

64

112 116

83% 80% 84% 84% 82%

40%

81%85%

91% 93% 97% 95%

53%

93% 96%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0102030405060708090

100110120130140

Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16

Crude Run UtilizationRefinery Crude RunUnit: KBD

TAMTAM

8

Refinery Performance


0

2

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q3/15 Q4 Q1/16 Q2 Q3

DB DTD/DB

Crude Price & Crack Spreads ($/BBL)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q3/15 Q4 Q1/16 Q2 Q3

GO/DB

UNL95/DB

FO/DB

7.906.27 5.62

-0.12

0.010.03

-3.72

2.510.32

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Inventory Gain Loss

Hedging

Market GRM

Accounting GRM 4.07 8.79 5.97

GRM Performance

Q3/16: Market GRM softer than previous quarter

Refinery utilization increased lead to higher value product yield

FO/DB spread was improved while UNL95/DB were weak

Crude cost spread Dated Brent and Dubai (DTD/DB) widening QoQ

An inventory gain of THB 120 Million

764

2,531

1,503

2,103

1,6261,384

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Accounting

Operating

Refinery EBITDAUnit: $/BBL

Unit: THB Million

9

0

200

400

600

800

1,000Retail Market

Industrial Market

Export

Wholesales

Distribution channel: Retail market is our main priority

10

Refined Petroleum Products: % Portion of total sales volume Q3/2016

Marketing Business

RetailMarket

IndustrialMarket

Wholesales

Export

46%

27%

14%

13%

Q3/15 = 45%, Q2/16 = 48% Q3/15 = 26%, Q2/16 = 28% Q3/15 = 9%, Q2/16 = 14% Q3/15 = 19%, Q2/16 = 12%

Unit: Million Litre

Total Sales Volume

670706

754777

851879

921

Distribution channel: Retail market is our main priority


803 921 879

469 529 503

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Marketing Sales VolumeUnit: Million Litre

1,2721,450 1,382

Industrial Market+7% YoY-5% QoQ

Retail Market+9% YoY-5% QoQ

551

882

607574

858

609

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Accounting

Operating

Marketing EBITDA

Unit: THB Million

11

0.97 1.09 1.04

0.24 0.50 0.38

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Net Retail Margin Net Industrial Margin

0.70

0.870.80

Net Marketing MarginUnit: Baht/Litre

Retail & Industrial sales volume reduced by

seasonal factor

Retail Margin maintained its level

Industrial Margin dropped from seasonal factor

and excess supply in the market

Q3/16: Seasonal Effected

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

12

Marketing NetworkIncrease Thruput per S/S by Network Expansion

BCP - BGN S/S

Major M7 Oil excl. BCP

433

Unit: K.Litre/Station/ Month

Thruput per station

595

554

463

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

FY2016

+11% Average YoY Growth Unit: Million Litre/ Month

Retail Sales VolumeY2015 Jan-Sep 16 ∆

37.1% 37.0%

15.0% 15.0%

13.6% 12.9%

13.0% 12.9%

6.0% 5.7%

5.2% 5.0%

1.5% 1.8%

6.9% 7.9%

1.6% 1.6%

Market Share (Retail Channel)

BCP - Co-Op Type

BCP – Dealer Type

Standard TypeSmall Type

Minor M7 Oil

146

114

R&M PerformanceRefinery and Marketing business are the main source of overall earnings

13

8.345.88 6.96

9.055.80

3.31

2.683.47

3.53

3.90

2012 2013 2014 2015 9M2016

Net MKM

Market GRM

Unit: $/BBL

Normalize Integrated Margin

11.66 8.56 10.43 12.58 9.70

7,026 6,579 7,167

12,838

5,471

2,973 2,6083,562

4,134

3,731

2012 2013 2014 2015 9M2016

Unit: THB Million

R&M being fully integrated model, the profit can be optimized through business cycle

Refinery Business earning was volatile due to market conditions and Turnaround maintenance (TAM)

Marketing Business Captures a Demand Surge During Low Oil Price Environment

Net MKM

Market GRM

BCP Group Portfolios

14

Green Power Plant Biofuel E&PRefinery Marketing

3.7

7

7.7

1

3.4

4

8.0

7

Q2/16 Q3/16

Target2 Actual3

55.6

5

65.3

5

60.6

5

63

.88

65

.03

61

.01

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Target Actual

Green Power Plant – New commercial operated plant in Japan

15

Thailand Portfolio (118 MWac)

Electricity Sales by Country (Unit: Million kWh)

Revenue from Electricity Sales (Unit: THB Million)

Steady steam of cash flow

Thailand: Lower Electricity Sales due to the

rainy season

Japan: Higher Electricity Sales during summer

time & additional COD of 8.8 MW PPA

692

525612

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Accounting

Green Power EBITDA

Unit: THB Million

731 716 680

43 105

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

TH JP

Japan Portfolio (19.5 MWac)

Biofuel Business – Increased capacity from new biodiesel plant

16

366 387452

568

741

478

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Daily Production Sales Volume

Capacity expanded from 2nd Biodiesel plant’s COD

Lower demand of Biodiesel (government’s policy of decreasing

the portion of B100 mixing with diesel from 7% in to 3%)

Biodiesel plants recorded a 56% utilization rate, current

capacity increased to 810 K. Litre / day

Short term CPO & B100 price fluctuation hence to an

inventory loss

Biodiesel Plant: Daily Production and Sales Volume

Unit: K. Litre per day

62

113

-65

83101 89

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Accounting

Operating

Biofuel EBITDA

Unit: THB Million

B7 to B5 in July B5 to B3 in Aug

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

CPO Price B100 Price

(Baht / Kg.) (Baht / Litre)

Average Monthly CPO and B100 product price

Source: Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

E&P Business – Self Revision, Survival Plan Cutting Down Costs

17

6.115.12 5.08

3.412.86 2.84

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Gross Production Net to NIDO

Production (Unit: KBD)

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Volumes lifted and Sold*

(bbls)201,003 393,375 196,474

Cargo 1 Cargo 2 Cargoes 1 Cargo

All prices are on FOB

realized basis

($/BBL)

Cargo 47

49.84

Cargo 51

40.53

Cargo 53

45.46

Cargo 52

48.15

49.9943.23 43.19

49.84 44.34 45.46

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

Dubai Nido

Comparing Nido Selling Price to Dubai benchmark priceUnit: $/BBL

Note: The cargo#52 sold in June was subject to the DES (Delivery Ex Ship) condition, Nido realized the revenue in July 2016

Implement cost cutting plan

Galoc oil filed uptime was 99.3%

Cost saving plan still implemented

Use derivatives to hedge against crude oil price volatility

156

59

171

Q3/15 Q2/16 Q3/16

AccountingE&P EBITDA

Unit: THB Million

AGENDA

18


2 Investment Update

4 Appendix


New Co-Gen Power Plant

3E Project – Project Progress

19

Y2016 Y2017 Y2018 Y2019 Y2020

Completion

Project Timeline

New Co-Gen Power Plant (≈12 MW)

Under Construction

Continuous Catalyst Regeneration Unit (CCR)

(Extend Maintenance Cycle)

FEED&ITB Preparation for Enlarge Capacity

Debottlenecking

(For light end products)

Basic Design Preparation

Completion EPC Award

Completion EPC AwardNPU and ISOU

Boiler Stack/ Structure HRSGOverall Site

Progress: 86%

Oam Suk Social Enterprise Company Limited

20

Oam Suk Social Enterprise

Company Limited

Buddhist Economic

Foundation

40%holds

60%holds

Resources Business

21

E&P

Increase of registered share capital from USD 91.31 million to USD 111.41 million for appraisal wells program in the Mid-Galoc area (GMA) of Galoc oil field in Philippines

Nido’s budgeted participating interest share of well costs is estimated to be A$24.0 million (US$18.5 million)

2P – 4.1MMstb2C – 7.4MMstb

Galoc Reserves & Resources1/

1/Reserves estimates as at 31 December 2015 and Contingent Resources estimates as at 1 August 2016

If successfully developed:

Production & Cost Saving

expected to start production in 2019

would save Galoc total cost by 30%

Optimal timing

• Enough time window for GMA to be developed before decommissioning of Galoc Field and related infrastructure

• Lower global oil price reduced drilling & developing cost by almost 50%

BIIC: Sustainable growth through “INNOVATIONS”

22

BIIC : Bangchak Initiative and Innovation Center

IN-HOUSE R&DCOLLABORATION WITH INDUSTRY

OR UNIVERSITYINCUBATOR & STARTUP

New Products & Services

• Spending in innovative businesses, incubators and start-ups not less than 2.5% of EBITDA

• Percentage of EBITDA from innovative businesses/products, incubators and start-ups to total EBITDA not less than 1%

2017 Target

Bangchak Service Station - Greenovative Experience

23

“New paradigm shift to be Customer Centric”

o Introduced new service stations design

o Expanded new potential service stations

New Service Station Design

24

Greenovative Experience

Developed Non oil one roof concept

AGENDA

25


2 Investment Update

4 Appendix


26

Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the

recipient, and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided

herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein

has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no

representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any

projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters

described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among

alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as

facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and

judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.

Thank You

Q&A

the bangchak petroleum plc - listed...

Documents