the bangchak petroleum plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20120816... ·...

The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.

- 1 - www.bangchak.co.th

Opportunity Day 2Q2012

August 15, 2012

Agenda

• World Oil Situation

• 2Q2012 Performance

• 2Q2012 Financial Performance

• Incident

• 2H2012 Overview

www.bangchak.co.th - 2 -

Oil Market Outlook : Key Factors


• Will slowing jobs picture spur more Fed stimulus?

• Uncertainty in U.S. economy still weight down oil price.

• Economy could contract by more than 7 pct this year, pushing debt-cutting targets further out of reach.

• Political conflicts over tougher austerity measures, Greece still has a risk to exit the euro zone.

• Greece will run out of cash in Sep without the next installments from troika.

• Government expect economic will contract by 0.5 pct in 2013 after shrinking by 1.5% this year.

• Fear on Spain would need a full bailouts from EU/IMF.

• Iranian oil exports through year-end will stay 1.0 MBD, lower than 2.5 MBD in 2011.

• US approved a further round of sanctions on Iran against foreign banks that help Iran sell its oil.

• Will Iran close Strait of Hormuz ?

Chinese government will step up efforts in 2H this year to stimulus economic growth from a 3-year low of 7.6 pct in Q2-2012

• Iran has offered support to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad .

• Not much impact on global oil supply, with oil production at 387 KBD and export at 109 KBD mostly to EU.

+/- US +/- Greece

+ China

+ Iran (Start EU/U.S. sanction) +/- Syria

- Spain

Global Oil Market : Price Movement


BCP View of DUBAI Price

Q3 ≈101 $/bbl Q4 ≈103 $/bbl

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

J’12 F M A M J J A S O N D

WTI

Brent

DB

o What are central bank act to stimulus economy?

o Middle east tension (Iran, Israel, Syria)

o Eye on OPEC production.

o Oil demand from Japan???

o Hurricane season in 3Q2012.

o Winter time around year-end.

o Global economic slowdown

o Worsen Euro zone economic situation (Spain, Italy, and Greece)

Forecasted DUBAI Price 2H2012: 97-105 $/bbl $/BBL

Asian Oil Market : Cracks Movement


$/BBL

-15

-5

5

15

25

Q1’12 Q2 Q3 Q4

9.0

19.0

15.0 16.0

1.0

-2.0

UNL95-DB GO-DB

FO-DB

Re : FO based on new conversion (6.35)

Seasonal winter demand will continue to support Distillate and Fuel oil crack

BCP Expected Base GRM (Incl. Hedging)

Q3 ≈ 9 $/bbl Q4 ≈ 7 $/bbl

Agenda




• Incident

• 2H2012 Overview


Operating Result (Consolidated)


SALES

EBITDA

NET PROFIT

EPS

(MMTHB)

(MMTHB)

(MMTHB)

(Baht/Share)

1Q2012 2Q2012 1H2012

1.77 (0.28) 1.49

47,610 40,362

87,972

3,714

(203)

3,511

2,438

(385)

2,054

*Owner of the company only

Refinery & Marketing Performance


Base GRM

GRM Hedging

MKM

Accounting GIM

Unit : USD/bbl 1Q2012 2Q2012 1H2012

15.18 2.04 9.73

Inventory G/L

Total GRM 12.53 (2.78) 6.18

6.68 4.85 5.92

1Q2012 2Q2012 1H2012

0.49 0.63 0.55

1 2 3

5.36

(8.26)

(0.28)

2.65 4.82 3.55

Refinery Performance 2Q2012


Crude Run

100.99

70.79

85.89

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

1Q2012 2Q2012 1HQ2012

KBD

3,060 EBITDA (MMTHB)

(1,069) 1,991

2Q2012 performance impacts:

• Lowered capacity due to TAM (30 days; 25 May – 23 Jun)

• Crack spread of main products decreased

• Crude oil price dropped

• Inventory Loss 1,672 MMTHB including LCM 1,061 MMTHB

• Sales volume increased by 5% YoY

• E20 & E85 sales volume increased

by 29% YoY

• Better Marketing Margin

214 223 226

143 184 148

2Q2011 2Q2012 2Q2012

Industrial

Retail

45.6%

15.9%

14.0%

12.5%

5.9% 6.0%

Marketing Performance 2Q2012


Market share of sales volume through service stations

Jan-Jun 2012

357 407 374

8% QoQ

5% YoY

Sales Volume (M.Liter/Mth)

Other

3.7%YOY

3.9%YOY

All Product

GASOLINE

3rd

0.53 0.62 0.87

2Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012

40% QoQ

64% YoY

44.9%

16.1%

14.5%

12.8%

6.3% 5.4%

Other

2nd Jan-Jun 2012

1Q2012

Non-oil Business: Mini Big C

Mini Bigc in Bangchak Service Stations

• 4 pilot projects have been launched at Rama3, Sukhapibarn, Pattanakarn and New

Charoenkrung

• Oil Sales increase 5-10%


• 8 MW Resumed Commercial Operation on April 2, 2012

• Sales Revenue 40 MMTHB EBITDA 107 MMTHB

Solar Plant Performance 2Q2012


Totally started commercial operation Phase 1 (Installed 44 MW)

*

* Including revenue from insurance compensation 74 MMTHB

Unit : MMTHB 2Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012

Sales 598 1,307 1,292

EBITDA 42 62 71

Net Profit 22 41 51

BBF Performance

• Sales Volume increased by 118% YoY

• Avg. Production Capacity advanced to 103% (compared to full capacity of 300,000 litre/day)

• Gross Margin per litre increased by 6% YoY

• Debottlenecked to 360,000 litre/day, COD in July


24% QoQ

131% YoY

Agenda




• Incident

• 2H2012 Overview


Profit & Loss (Consolidated)


1Q2012 2Q2012 Δ QoQ (%)

47,610 40,362 -15%

3,714 (203) -105%

(558) (552) -1%

236 115 -51%

(191) (204) 7%

3,201 (845) -126%

(751) 476 -163%

2,450 (369) -115%

1H2012

87,972

3,511

(1,110)

351

(396)

2,356

(275)

2,081

1.77 (0.28) -116% 1.49

Unit : M.Baht

Sales Revenue

EBITDA

Depreciation and Amortization

Other FX and Impairment

Financial Cost

Pre-tax Profit

Tax

Net Profit

EPS (Baht/Share)

Profit & Loss (Company)


1Q2012 2Q2012 Δ QoQ (%) 1H2012

Sales revenue 46,940 39,620 -16% 86,560

EBITDA 3,609 (261) -107% 3,348

-Refinery Business 3,059 (1,069) -135% 1,990

-Marketing Business 550 701 27% 1,251

-Solar Power Plant - 107 N/A 107

Tax (740) 475 -164% (265)

Net Profit 2,377 (407) -117% 1,971

EPS (Baht / Share) 1.73 (0.30) -117% 1.43

2Q2012 Performance:

• 10% decreased in total sales volume from a decrease in crude run due to TAM (May 25- June 23)

• Other revenue mainly from insurance compensation of 74 MMTHB for the 8 MW Solar Power Plant which was affected by the 2011 flood.

• LCM 1,061 MMTHB

• CIT decreased due to loss in 2Q and used additional BOI Tax Privilege of 267 MMTHB from its Environmental Improvement Project

Refinery BU Performance


1Q2012 2Q2012 1H2012

M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL

Base GRM 1,913 6.68 982 4.85 2,895 5.92

GRM Hedging 140 0.49 128 0.63 268 0.55

Inventory Gain/(Loss) 1,534 5.36 (611) (3.02) 922 1.89

LCM - - (1,061) (5.24) (1,061) (2.17)

Total GRM 3,587 12.53 (562) (2.78) 3,023 6.18

Other Income 41 0.14 34 0.17 75 0.15

Operating Expenses (567) (1.98) (541) (2.64) (1,108) (2.27)

EBITDA 3,060 10.70 (1,069) (5.22) 1,991 4.06

Adjusted EBITDA 1,526 5.33 603 2.95 2,130 4.36

Key factors:

Crude Run (KBD) 101.0 70.79 85.89

Exchange rate (฿/$) 31.12 31.43 31.28 DB ($/Bbl) 116.14 106.37 111.26

Company Only

Marketing BU Performance


1Q2012 2Q2012 1H2012

M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L

Net Retail Margin 546 0.81 767 1.13 1,312 0.97

Net Industrial Margin 211 0.38 210 0.47 421 0.42

Total MKM 757 0.62 977 0.87 1,733 0.74

Other Income 193 0.16 182 0.16 375 0.32

Operating Expenses (400) (0.33) (458) (0.41) (858) (0.73)

EBITDA 549 0.45 701 0.62 1,250 0.33

Sales volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo

o Retail 46.3 223 46.9 226 46.6 225

o Industrial 38.7 187 30.7 148 34.7 167

Total Sales volume 85.1 410 77.6 374 81.4 392

Company Only

30 Jun 2012 31 Dec 2011

Financial Position-Consolidated


Cash & Equivalents

Other Current Assets

Other Non-Current Assets

PP&E

Current + other Liabilities

L/T Debt (Incl. due within 1 yr)

Total Equity

61,603 63,927

4%YOY

• Long-Term Debt increased because of corporate bond issuance 3,000 MMTHB

• Total Equity increased because of 1H2012 Net Profit 2,081 MMTHB and dividend payment of 1,377 MMTHB

Current Ratio, time

Int. bearing D/E Ratio, time

1.78 1.83

2.15

2.42

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2009 2010 2011 1H2012

0.75

0.86

0.62

0.53

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2009 2010 2011 1H2012

Agenda




• Incident

• 2H2012 Overview


July 4, 2012 Incident

Fact: fire was initiated at one column and

caused the subsequent fire in the

surrounding columns of CDU no.3

Cause: during metallurgical analysis by

MTEC

Actions:

• Total Refinery Shut Down for 7 days for Safety

• Started up CDU no.2 (40 KBD) and HCU since July 14, 2012

• CDU no. 3 has been shut down for inspection and maintenance

• Prompt and Extensive Communications by BCP Managements and employees with neighboring communities and authorities


Crude Distillation Unit Plant no.3 (80 KBD) was ignited.

Social & Environmental Impact

• Ministry of Industry: no negative impact to environment

• Neighboring communities understand the situation: no issue for BCP relocation

• Improve safety standard and operation procedure with world-class consultants: Toyo Thai Plc., Quest, etc.


Financial Impact

Impact to 2012


*Included BI insurance compensation. Deductible period of 60 days

**Expect to get PD insurance compensation. Deductible of 1 MUSD.

Target EBITDA (Excl. stock gain/loss)

Avg. Sales volume through

Marketing Business

Avg. Crude run(plan)

Repairing expense

≈ 91.6 KBD

≈ 382 ML/Mth

≈ 7,300 MMTHB

-

≈ 80 KBD

≈ 382 ML/Mth

≈ 6,800 MMTHB

≈(450) MMTHB**

Before Incident After Incident

*

Status update

Recovery Plan


Production:

• Operated CDU no.2 and HCU (45 KBD)

• Providing gasoline/gasoil/jet fuel (import & domestic) 170-180

ML/MTH for distribution

CDU plant no.3:

• EPC Managed by Toyo Thai Corporation Plc.

• Expected to resume operation in Oct. 2012

Marketing:

• No impact to Sale through Service Stations

Agenda




• Incident

• 2H2012 Overview


2H2012 Overview

Refinery:

• Resume operation plant no.3 by October 2012

• Expected Crude Run & Base GRM (Incl. Hedging)

Next Step…

• Replacement with NEW CRUDE DISTILLATION UNIT No.3 (100 KBD)

• 3E projects phase 1: CCR & Co-Gen

• Debottleneck some units, support capacity to reach 140 KBSD


3Q2012

40 KBD

9 $/bbl

4Q2012

90 KBD

7 $/bbl

Crude Run

Base GRM (Incl. Hedging)

2H2012 Overview


Marketing:

• Expected Sales Volume growth 9%

• Expected MKM ≈ 0.59 Baht/litre

• 600 stations

• 50 stations

• New/Rebranding service stations

• New INTHANIN coffee branches

2H2012 Overview


8 MW (1-31 July 2012) 30 MW (16 – 31 July 2012)

Target Actual Target Actual

Total Energy Production (kWh) 1,059,673 1,159,763 1,979,300 2,023,413

Unit: MMTHB 1H2012 2H2012F FY2012F

EBITDA 107 300 407

NPAT 63 140 203

*Including revenue from insurance compensation

*

Solar Power Plant: Phase 1

• Sale 38 MW (Installed 44 MW)

• 8 MW started COD on April 2, 2012

• 30 MW started COD on July 16, 2012

Value-Added Income

Operation Performance

Project Update: Solar Power Plant


Phase 2 (Installed 50 MW)

• Under construction

• Expected COD in Dec 2012

• Under flood prevention system

construction

• Expected COD in 1Q2013

Phase 3 (Installed 75 MW)

• Located at Kabin Buri,

Prachinburi Province

• Under Bangchak Solar Energy (Prachinburi) Co., Ltd.

• Under land acquisition process

25 MW @ Bam Net Narong,

Chaiyaphum

25 MW @ Bang Pa Hun,

Ayutthaya

25 MW

50 MW

Project Update: Ubon Bio Ethanol


• Under plant modification for dual feed

(cassava and molasses)

• Expected to start COD in Feb. 2013



APPENDIX Analyst Meeting 2Q2012

August 8, 2012

Profit & Loss (Company)


Unit: MMTHB 2Q2011 2Q2012 Change %

(YoY) 1Q2012

Change % (QoQ)

Sales revenue 42,442 39,620 -7% 46,940 -16%

EBITDA 3,911 (261) -107% 3,609 -107%

-Refinery Business 3,494 (1,069) -131% 3,059 -135%

-Marketing Business 417 701 68% 550 27%

-Solar Power Plant - 107 N/A - N/A

Depreciation&Amortization (498) (538) 8% -544 -1%

Other FX & Impairment 154 115 -25% 236 -51% Financial Cost (182) (197) 8% -184 7% Pre-Tax Profit 3,384 (881) -126% 3,117 -128%

Tax (386) 475 -223% -740 -164%

Net Profit 2,999 (407) -114% 2,377 -117%

EPS (Baht / Share) 2.31 (0.30) 1.73

Profit & loss (Consolidated)


Unit: MMTHB 2Q2011 2Q2012 Change %

(YoY) 1Q2012

Change % (QoQ)

Sales Revenue 42,906 40,362 -6% 47,610 -15%

EBITDA 4,183 (203) -105% 3,714 -105%

Depreciation & Amortization (525) (552) 5% (558) -1%

Other FX & Impairment (105) 115 -210% 236 -51%

Financial Cost (137) (204) 49% (191) 7%

Pre-Tax Profit 3,416 (845) -125% 3,201 -126%

Tax (389) 476 -222% (751) -163%

Net Profit 3,028 (369) -112% 2,450 -115%

EPS (Baht / Share) 2.33 (0.28) 1.77

BBF Financial Statement


Balance Sheet Unit: MMTHB 30-Jun-12 31-Dec-12

Cash and cash equivalents 236 96

Inventory 150 207

Total Asset 1,446 1,282

Total Liability 854 783

Total Equity 592 499

Total Liability + Equity 1,446 1,282

Income Statement

Unit: MMTHB 2Q2012 2Q2011

Sales 1,292 598

Cost of good sold (1,227) (592)

Gross Profit 65 6

Other income/interest 0 0

Operating Expense (6) (5)

Reverse LCM - 30

EBIT 59 31

Financial Cost (8) (9)

Net Profit 51 22

Financial Ratio (Consolidated)


PROFITABILITY RATIOS 1Q2012 2Q2012 1H2012

Net Profit Margin % 5.12 (0.95) 3.99

EBITDA Margin % 7.80 (0.50) 2.33

Return on Equity-ROE % 7.88 (1.28) 6.83

Return on Assets-ROA % 3.79 (0.61) 3.27

LEVERAGE RATIOS

Int. bearing D/E Ratio times 0.51 0.53

Total Liability to Equity times 1.06 3.51

LIQUIDITY RATIOS 1Q2012 2Q2012

Current Ratio times 2.07 2.42

Quick Ratio times 0.86 0.99

AR Day days 16.69 11.17

DSCR times 10.02 3.11

VALUATION RATIOS

Book Value per Share Baht 23.36 22.08 -

Earning per Share Baht 1.77 (0.28) 1.49



Thank You

Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and

may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided herein, this document does not

constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that The

Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or

liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been

provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective

assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and

statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an

independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.

[email protected] Tel. +662 335 4580, 335 4583

www.bangchak.co.th

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