telenor group | powerpoint template 16:9...sensitivity: open 11.8% data subscriber and 70.4% data...
TRANSCRIPT
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Grameenphone Ltd. 3rd Quarter, 2019 Results
Michael Patrick Foley, CEO
21 October 2019
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Disclaimer
The following presentation is being made only to, and is only
directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be
communicated (’relevant persons’). Any person who is not a
relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of
its contents. Information in the following presentation relating to the
price at which relevant investments have been bought or sold in the
past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon as a
guide to the future performance of such investments.
This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or
otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to
underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in
Grameenphone Ltd. The release, publication or distribution of this
presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and
therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is
released, published or distributed should inform themselves about,
and observe, such restrictions.
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Highlights
Solid Growth with
Strong Margins
9300+Total
4G/LTE sites
75.7 Mn Total
Subscribers
Challenging Regulatory
Environment
Q3 2019 Q3 2019
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Solid topline growth despite a very challenging regulatory environment
• 1812 4G sites rolled out
• 11.0 Mn 4G customers
• Improved resilience
• Focus on GA market share
• Seasonality impact
• Product portfolio revamp
• Show cause notice
• Halt on NOCs
• 10% SD & BDT 200 SIM Tax
NETWORK
ROLLOUT
MARKET
OPERATIONS
CHALLENGINGREGULATORY
ENVIRONMENT
Q3 2019
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MyGPThe Fastest Growing
#1 MyTelenor App
Q3 2019
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Q3 2019 Regulatory LandscapeMore details on Business Highlights
BTRC
Audit
Tower CoLicensing
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Supply Chain SustainabilityPromoting Responsible Business Practice in the Supply Chain
Findings ClosureWithin Stipulated
Timeline
ComplianceAcross Value Chain
2500Supply Chain Inspections
in last three (3) years
15000Man-Hours of Capacity
Building since 2016
100%Supplier Code of Conduct
Endorsement
1100Suppliers
Grameenphone strives for high standards on sustainability and continuous improvement in its operations throughout the supply chain.
Grameenphone’s Supplier Conduct Principles (SCP) are based on internationally recognized standards, including requirements on human rights,
health and safety, labor rights, environment and anti-corruption. It is mandatory for all the contracting parties to agree to these principles.
Grameenphone’s approach to supply chain sustainability is to legally oblige the supplier to uphold responsible business practice, monitor
compliance to GP’s requirements and to do capacity building among suppliers. All suppliers are obliged to extend the supplier requirements
further down in their own supply chain.
Q3 2019
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Grameenphone Ltd. 3rd Quarter, 2019 Results
Jens Becker, CFO
21 October 2019
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EBITDA growth with strong margins
6.7% YoY GrowthSubscription & Traffic Revenue*
61.8% EBITDA Margin**
9.8% CAPEX/Sales***
5.38Earnings Per Share
Q3 2019
*Revenues generated by own subscription (excludes interconnection)**As per IAS 17***Capex excluding license fees; Capex/sales = moving average last 4 quarters Q3 2019
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6.0% subscriber growth while reaching 69% 4G/LTE population coverage
Total Subscribers (Mn)
30 September 2019
71.4
72.7
74.1
75.3
75.7
69.0
70.0
71.0
72.0
73.0
74.0
75.0
76.0
77.0
3Q'18 4Q'18 1Q'19 2Q'19 3Q'19
99.55%Population Coverage
95.97%Geographical
Coverage
68.97%4G Population
Coverage
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6.7% YoY growth in subscription & traffic revenue
*Daily revenues generated by own subscription (excludes interconnection)
Revenue (BDT Bn) and Growth (YoY)
34.3 34.7 34.9
36.0 36.6
3.4%
7.7%
11.6%10.6%
6.6%
-2.0%
3.0%
8.0%
13.0%
18.0%
23.0%
28.0%
28.0
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
Q3 2019
• 6.6% YoY growth in total revenue
• 3.9% YoY growth in voice revenue driven by
6.0% growth in subscriber base
DSTR* (BDT Mn) and Growth (YoY)
348 353
364
372 371
7.6%
11.3%
14.2%13.4%
6.7%
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
• Diminishing advantage of unified floor tariff
• Impact of regulatory challenges and macro
factors
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11.8% data subscriber and 70.4% data volume growth
Q3 2019*Revenues generated by own subscription (includes interconnection)** Minimum 150 KB usage within last 3 months
• 17.3% YoY data revenue growth driven by
growth in users and ARPU
Data Revenue (BDT Bn) and % of Service Revenue*
6.6 7.0 6.9
7.2
7.8
19.6%20.6%
20.0% 20.2%
21.7%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
29.0%
31.0%
33.0%
35.0%
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
• Drive on 4G conversion and network expansion
contributing to user growth and experience
Active Data Users** (Mn) and % of Sub-base
36.337.1
38.2
39.840.6
50.9% 51.0% 51.6%52.8% 53.7%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
23.0
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.0
37.0
39.0
41.0
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
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1.5% YoY service ARPU decline and 3.3% YoY data ARPU growth
Service ARPU, AMPU and APPM
• Higher contribution from data, partly offset by lower
interconnect revenue
• 0.4% service ARPU decline QoQ
161 157 156 159 158
232
212 216 220 219
0.690.74 0.72 0.72 0.72
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
ARPU (BDT) AMPU APPM (BDT)
Data ARPU, AMBPU and APPMB
• 50.1% YoY growth in AMBPU
• APPMB declined by 31.2% YoY mainly due to competitive
offers
62 64 61 62 64
0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04
1174 1234
1418
1576
1763
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
ARPU (BDT) APPMB (BDT) AMBPU
Q3 2019
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BDT 1.5 Bn EBITDA growth driven by higher gross profit
Q3 2019
Opex (BDT Bn) and Margin**
*EBITDA before other items, 12 month moving average**As per IAS 17, restated
+2.1%YoY
-1.3% QoQ
EBITDA* (BDT Bn) and Margin**
+7.3%YoY
+2.2% QoQ
11.4
11.2
11.9
11.8
11.7
33.3%32.4%
34.2%32.8% 31.9%
23.0%
28.0%
33.0%
38.0%
43.0%
48.0%
53.0%
10.5
10.7
10.9
11.1
11.3
11.5
11.7
11.9
12.1
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
Opex (BDT Bn) Margin %
21.1
21.5
21.0
22.1
22.6
61.3% 61.8%60.2%
61.4% 61.8%
56.0%
61.0%
66.0%
71.0%
76.0%
81.0%
86.0%
91.0%
96.0%
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
EBITDA BOI (BDT Bn) Margin %
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Investment mainly on network modernization and 4G/LTE site rollout
Q3 2019
• 1812 new 4G sites rollout along with network
modernization
• Total number of sites stand at 16,389; 4G –
9,307
• Investment to continue to provide superior
network experience
4.6
3.9
4.2
3.8
2.1
13.5% 12.7% 12.6% 11.8%9.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
*Capex excluding license feesCapex/sales = moving average last 4 quarters
*Capex (BDT Bn) and Capex/Sales%
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8.4 8.6 8.5
9.6
7.3
24.6% 24.8% 24.4%26.5%
19.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
NPAT (BDT Bn) Margin %
YTD EPS stands at 18.75, registering a 2% YTD YoY growth
Q3 2019
NPAT (BDT Bn) and Margin*
*On reported basis, restated
-13.9%YoY
-23.9% QoQ
Earnings Per Share (BDT)*
-13.9%YoY
-23.9% QoQ
6.25 6.36 6.29
7.07
5.38
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
• NPAT adversely impacted by one-offs
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BDT 20.5 Bn OCF and Net debt/EBITDA of -0.04
Q3 2019
*OCF (BDT Bn) and OCF/Sales%
*OCF equals EBITDA minus Capex (excluding license) as per IAS17**Net Debt = Short term debt + Long term debt - Cash and Cash equivalents
12 months rolling restated EBITDA
Net debt (BDT Bn) and Net debt/EBITDA**
14.2
2.7
-5.4
7.8
-3.3
0.18 0.03-0.07
0.09
-0.04
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
Net Debt Net/Debt to EBITDA
16.417.5
16.8
18.4
20.5
47.8%
50.5%
48.2%
51.0%
56.1%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
OCF Margin %
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Investment & Payment to the Bangladesh Economy
19.321.1
14.5
34.0
10.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 9M 2019
Investment* BDT Bn
17.144G License
Fees
• BDT 61.4 Bn (equaling 57% of total revenues) contributed to exchequer in the first nine months of 2019
• Contribution in the form of taxes, VAT, duties, fees, *4G license & spectrum assignment
Payment to National Exchequer BDT Bn
51.1
58.661.8
84.2
61.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2015 2016 2017 2018 9M 2019
12.7 *
357
Total
731
Total
Total represents cumulative figures since inception*Based on IAS 17
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Solid business performance in a very challenging environment
EBITDA growth driven by gross profit
Building network for better data experience and strong distribution ecosystem remains our focus for future growth and efficiency
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Q&A
Q3 2019
*In consideration of the local regulations, Grameenphone Ltd. does not provide any forward looking statements.