technology energy energy technology perspectives...
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© OECD/IEA - 2006
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Energy Technology PerspectivesEnergy Technology PerspectivesEnergy Technology PerspectivesEnergy Technology Perspectives
Scenarios and Strategies to 2050Scenarios and Strategies to 2050Scenarios and Strategies to 2050Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
NIES WorkshopDeveloping Visions for a Low Carbon Society
through Sustainable Development
Michael TaylorEnergy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
G8 - Gleneagles CommuniquéJuly 2005
“IEA will advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive
energy future”.
Take part in dialogue, including developing countries
14 international programmes focussed on energy efficiency (buildings, appliances, industry, transport), clean coal, renewables and R&D collaboration
Reports to Japanese G8 Presidency in 2008
World Energy Outlook
World Primary Energy Demand
Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the 60% growth in energy demand between now and 2030
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear power
Hydro power
Other renewables
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7 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
Global CO2 Emissionsin the Reference & Alternative Scenarios
CO2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative scenario in
2030.
Improved energy efficiency contributes more
than half to this gap.
16%
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30 000
35 000
40 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
mill
ion
tonne
s o
f C
O 2
Coal Oil Gas Alternative Policy Scenario Reference Scenario
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
But this is not enoughBut this is not enough……
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Publication date 22 June
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Publication date 22 June
Energy Technology Perspectives 2006
� Contributes to the IEA
response to the G8 Plan of
Action (“Advising on
scenario strategies aimed at
a clean, clever and
competitive energy future”)
� This innovative work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
What ETP builds onWhat ETP builds onWhat ETP builds onWhat ETP builds on
� IEAs multi-year ETP project, supported via Voluntary Contributions from Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US
� Past work on the WEO Alternative Policy Scenarios
� Extensive information base from previous ETO analyses and from IEA’s Technology Network
� Substantial input from acrossthe IEA and from a
long list of external experts
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
ETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 FocusETP 2006 Focus
� Status and perspectives for key energy technologies in different sectors
� Global scenario analysis to illustrate how technologies can make a difference� Individual scenarios differ in terms of assumptions for nuclear, CCS,
renewables, advanced biofuels, hydrogen fuel cells and energy efficiency progress
� Technology Strategies:� How much can different technologies deliver?
� By when can they deliver?
� What barriers have to be overcome to make them deliver both in the short term and over the next 3-5 decades?
� Pathways to overcome barriers
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Accelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology ScenariosAccelerated Technology Scenarios(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)(ACT)
�A family of scenarios to demonstrate how technologies that are already commercial or under development can help towards a sustainable energy future
�All scenarios analyse the impact from measures to accelerated R&D, demonstration and deployment efforts as well as measures aimed at giving incentives for low-carbon technologies
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Stronger cost Stronger cost Stronger cost Stronger cost
reductions & reductions & reductions & reductions &
improved improved improved improved
feedstock feedstock feedstock feedstock
availabilityavailabilityavailabilityavailability
Breakthrough Breakthrough Breakthrough Breakthrough
for FCfor FCfor FCfor FC
Stronger cost Stronger cost Stronger cost Stronger cost
reductions & reductions & reductions & reductions &
technology technology technology technology
improvementsimprovementsimprovementsimprovements
Stronger cost Stronger cost Stronger cost Stronger cost
reductionsreductionsreductionsreductionsTECH PlusTECH PlusTECH PlusTECH Plus
0.3% p.a. less 0.3% p.a. less 0.3% p.a. less 0.3% p.a. less
improvementimprovementimprovementimprovementLow EfficiencyLow EfficiencyLow EfficiencyLow Efficiency
No CCSNo CCSNo CCSNo CCSNo CCSNo CCSNo CCSNo CCS
Lower public Lower public Lower public Lower public
acceptanceacceptanceacceptanceacceptanceLow NuclearLow NuclearLow NuclearLow Nuclear
Slower cost Slower cost Slower cost Slower cost
reductionsreductionsreductionsreductionsLow Low Low Low RenewablesRenewablesRenewablesRenewables
EndEndEndEnd----use use use use
efficiencyefficiencyefficiencyefficiency
Advanced Advanced Advanced Advanced
biofuelsbiofuelsbiofuelsbiofuelsHHHH2222 fuel cellsfuel cellsfuel cellsfuel cellsCCSCCSCCSCCSNuclearNuclearNuclearNuclearRenewablesRenewablesRenewablesRenewablesScenarioScenarioScenarioScenario
Technology AssumptionsTechnology Assumptions
(relative to Map Scenario)(relative to Map Scenario)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions 2003Emissions 2003--20502050Baseline ScenarioBaseline Scenario
Emissions increase dramatically by 2050
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2003 Baseline 2030
(WEO 2005)
Baseline 2050
Mt
CO
2
Buildings
Other
Transport
Industry
Transformation
Power Generation
+137%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions 2003Emissions 2003--20502050Baseline and Map ScenarioBaseline and Map Scenario
Map Scenario: Emissions returned towards today’s level
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2003 Baseline 2030
(WEO 2005)
Baseline 2050 Map
Mt
CO
2
Buildings
Other
Transport
Industry
Transformation
Power Generation
+6%
ACT Scenarios 2050
+137%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions 2003Emissions 2003--20502050Baseline and ACT ScenariosBaseline and ACT Scenarios
Impact of not having CCS available
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2003 Baseline 2030
(WEO 2005)
Baseline 2050 Map No CCS
Mt
CO
2
Buildings
Other
Transport
Industry
Transformation
Power Generation
+6%
+21%
ACT Scenarios 2050
+137%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions 2003Emissions 2003--20502050Baseline and ACT ScenariosBaseline and ACT Scenarios
Impact of less efficiency progress
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2003 Baseline 2030
(WEO 2005)
Baseline 2050 Map No CCS Low Efficiency
Mt
CO
2
Buildings
Other
Transport
Industry
Transformation
Power Generation
+6%
+21%+27%
ACT Scenarios 2050
+137%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions 2003Emissions 2003--20502050Baseline, ACT and TECH plus ScenariosBaseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios
TECH Plus: More optimistic on progress for certain key
technologies
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2003 Baseline 2030
(WEO 2005)
Baseline 2050 Map No CCS Low Efficiency TECH Plus
2050
Mt
CO
2
Buildings
Other
Transport
Industry
Transformation
Power Generation
+6%
+21% +27%
-16%
ACT Scenarios 2050
+137%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Emission Reduction by Technology AreaEmission Reduction by Technology Area
ACT Map ScenarioACT Map Scenario
Improved energy efficiency most important contributor to reduced emissions
Fuel mix in buildings
and industry
8%
Other renewables
6%
Biomass
2%
Fossil fuel generation
efficiency
1%
Nuclear
6%
Coal to gas
5%
Hydropower
2%
CCS
12%
Power
Generation
34%
End-use efficiency
44%
Biofuels in transport
6%
CCS in fuel
transformation
3%
CCS in industry
5%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Key Messages
�A more sustainable energy future is possible with known technology
�The costs are not disproportional
�But it will require sustained effort and investment by both the public and private sector in developed and
developing countries
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Key Messages�We can return carbon emissions to
their current level by 2050
�We can halve the growth of oil demand
�We can move onto a pathway that will stabilise CO2 in the atmosphere at “sustainable levels”
�And this is consistent with continued rapid growth of energy demand in the developing World
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Key Messages
�Most energy still comes from fossil fuels in 2050
�We can substantially decarbonisethe power sector by 2050
�Decarbonising transport will take longer but must be achieved in the second half of the century
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Key Messages� Energy efficiency is paramount� Also very important:
�Carbon Capture and Storage�Renewables�Nuclear – where acceptable
� Urgent action is required in public and private sectors:�Enhanced R & D�Demonstration and deployment�Clear and predictable incentives
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Implementing the ACT Scenarios
Policy ImplicationsPolicy Implications
�Energy efficiency is top priority
�Well focused R&D programs are essential
�Transition from R&D to deployment is critical
�Need for predictable long-term incentives for low-carbon technologies
�Non-economic barriers need attention
�A huge and coordinated international effort
�The task is urgent
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE