roundtable b - energy technology perspectives

THINKTANK ROUNDTABLE B

ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES

Organised by:

© General Electric Company 2012

SIEW 2012IEA WorkshopKaz FukuiMarketing Director, Asia-PacificGE Power & Water

GE Power & Water

GE Proprietary InformationAll Rights Reserved

25th October 2012

304/11/23


Overview

2

3

1 ASEAN power needs & role of clean technologies

Available clean technology options for ASEAN

Key for enabling decarbonization of ASEAN power industry

404/11/23


ASEAN capacity new addition forecast (2012-2021)

Philippines

9 GW

49 GW

Indonesia

21 GW

Thailand

Vietnam

45 GW

Malaysia

12 GW

10 yr addition (GW)Coal 64

Gas 41

Hydro 13Renewables 17Oil 2Nuclear 6

Source: GE Energy Strategic Marketing forecasting & other sources (Based on the expected order figures)

6 GW

Other SE Asia

TOTAL ~140

504/11/23


ASEAN CO2 emission forecast (2012-2021)

Philippines

+10Mt

+118Mt

Indonesia +30Mt

ThailandVietnam

+46Mt

Malaysia

+39Mt

Source: GE Energy Global Strategy & Planning forecast, Jan 2012

3% CAGR

11% CAGR

3% CAGR

4% CAGR6% CAGR

Mt/yr 2012

2021

CAGR

Japan 550 590 1%

ASEAN 5

430 670 5%

Figures = Power related CO2 emission in Mt/yr

Mt/yr Mt/

yr

Mt/yr

Mt/yr

Mt/yr

604/11/23


4061

97

133

167 161

220

258

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Marine

Geothermal

Small hydro

Biomass & w-t-e

Biofuels

Solar

Wind

Clean technology … tendency to focus on mainstream solar & wind

CAGR ‘04-’1

130%

12%

22%

8%

10%

40%

30%

US$B

Source: “Global trend in renewable investment 2012”, UNEP (With Bloomberg New Energy Finance)

704/11/23


Critical to evaluate & embrace a toolbox of options to drive decarbonization….

Clean technology

Wind

Smart Grid / Micro-grids

Waste Heat RecoveryEnergy storage

SolarBiomas

s Hydro

Biofuel

Energy efficiency Emission

reductionCleaner coal

CCS

Geothermal

Other future …Microbial coal-to-gas

Waste plasmasification

Liquid air energy storage etc. etc. ….

804/11/23


Portfolio approach

Aviation

Healthcare

Water

Oil & Gas

Energy

Transportation

Home & Business Solutions

Capital

$140B+ Eco Revenues ($21B ) Focused on technology

and innovation

• Flex Efficiency 50 • Wind Turbines• Jenbacher Alternative Fuel gas

engines• SmartGrid• WattStation/DuraStation EV

charging products

• GEnx• TrueCourse

Flight Management System

• Passport Integrated Propulsion • Zeeweed Membranes

• Pro/Titan Reverse Osmosis• ABMet – Advanced

Biological Metals Removal

• Digital X Ray• Voluson

Ultrasound• WAVE Bioreactor• Ibox

• Oregen Waste Heat Recovery Systems

• PGT25+ gas turbines for compression

• Environmental Performance Services

• Arden Access• Australia eco

Mastercard

• LED Light Sources

• High Eff. CFLs• Smart

Appliances

• evolution locomotive• Trip Optimizer• Movement Planner

904/11/23


Cleaner coalImproved plant efficiency through efficient engineering and improved materials

• Supercritical steam turbines achieve net plant efficiencies of 42-44% (LHV)

• Typically reduce emissions by 20% compared to existing subcritical plants

• Stepping up the temperature and pressure to Ultra-supercritical leads to even greater efficiencies of 44-46% and environmental benefits

Source: GE Power & Water

1004/11/23


Technology integrationExpanding infrastructure synergies … gas + renewables

1104/11/23


• Central & distributed• Flexible supply to grid• Proven technology• Dispatchable and low cost

power• Lower carbon footprint than

coal

Flexible & efficient gas Renewable enabler & bridging technology

• 61%+ baseload efficiency … 510MW

• One-button start in <30 minutes• 51 MW/min ramp rate … 50%

faster than industry benchmark

• High efficiency 50MW combined cycle

• Full power in 5 minutes• Fuel flexibility• Lower emissions with zero water

Large units Small units

Source: GE Power & Water

1204/11/23


Other clean technologies for ASEAN

More flexible smart-grid deployment

Waste-to-energy with gasification

Core traditional renewables

Power from waste heat

(e.g. diesel

generators)

Biomass gasifierMicro-grid

Waste heat recovery Renewables

1304/11/23


How to promote best available clean technologies in ASEAN?

• Demonstration of the value of the technology (inc. pilot)

• Alliance network & demand creation

• Support mechanism & drivers

Hurdles Require

No single “best” technology … enable portfolio of clean technologies to be deployable with references & clear

demonstration of values

1404/11/23


The private sector is keen to help ASEAN develop cooperation in energy sectorThe key policy elements that need to be embraced by all

ASEAN members to ensure greater cooperation:

1.Encourage a diversification of energy resources and the use of clean energy technologies

2.Encourage the development of renewable energy through policies that support FiTs and pilot projects

3.Promote open trade and eliminate barriers in environmental goods and services

4.Adopt transparent processes in facilitating the development of energy projects

5.Set energy efficiency targets and enforce them

6.Work with other multilateral organizations, such as APEC, to promote clean energy policies

1504/11/23


© OECD/IEA 2012

Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future

25th October 2012David Elzinga

© OECD/IEA 2012

ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures

© OECD/IEA 2012

6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results

The 6°C Scenario

4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency

The 4°C Scenario

2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions

The 2°C Scenario

© OECD/IEA 2012

Sustainable future still in reach

© OECD/IEA 2012

Are we on track to reach a clean

energy future?

NO ✗

Can we get on track?

YES ✓

Is a clean energy transition urgent?

YES ✓

© OECD/IEA 2012

Recommendations to Governments

© OECD/IEA 2012

1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy

2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future

3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

© OECD/IEA 2012

The Global Energy system today

Dominated by fossil fuels in all sectors

© OECD/IEA 2012

The future low-carbon energy system

The 2DS in 2050 shows a dramatic shift in energy sources and demands

© OECD/IEA 2012

Only collective efforts of all sectors lead to the 2DS

The core of a clean energy system is low-carbon electricity that diffuses into all end-use sectors.

© OECD/IEA 2012

A variety of technologies is required to achieve the 2DS

Energy efficiency is the hidden fuel that increases energy security and mitigates climate change.

CCS20%

Renewables29%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency

31%

End-use fuel switching9%

Nuclear8%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching

3%

© OECD/IEA 2012

A smart, sustainable energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012

A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012

Clean energy: slow lane to fast track

© OECD/IEA 2012

Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas

Significant action is required to get back on track

© OECD/IEA 2012

Industry must become more efficient

© OECD/IEA 2012

Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.

GtC

O2

© OECD/IEA 2012

The CCS infant must grow quickly

© OECD/IEA 2012

Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt C

O2

© OECD/IEA 2012

Electric vehicles need to come of age

© OECD/IEA 2012

More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050.

Pas

seng

er L

DV

sal

es (

mill

ion)

© OECD/IEA 2012

Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Services

Residential

About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector.

© OECD/IEA 2012

Building sector challenges differ

OECD Non OECD

75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050

© OECD/IEA 2012

Heating & Cooling: huge potential

© OECD/IEA 2012

Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.

© OECD/IEA 2012

Energy and CO2 impacts of electricity generation

Power sector accounted in 2009 for almost 40% of global primary energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions.

Power38%

Industry21%

Transport18%

Buildings15%

Other transformation6%

Agriculture2%

Power38%

Industry26%

Transport20%

Buildings9%

Other transformation5%

Agriculture2%

Total primary energy use: 509 EJ in 2009

Total energy-related CO2 emissions:31.4 Gt in 2009

© OECD/IEA 2012

Key technologies to decarbonise power generation

Electricity demand savings and renewables are each responsible for one-third of the cumulative CO2 reductions in the power sector in the 2DS.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Additional emissions 6DS

Electricity savings 28% (21%)

Fuel switching and efficiency 5% (2%)

Other renewables 5% (7%)

Wind, offshore 7% (7%)

Wind, onshore 7% (5%)

CSP 5% (8%)

PV 7% (8%)

Hydro 4% (3%)

Nuclear 14% (17%)

CCS 18% (22%)

Note: The first percentage number refers to its share in cumulative CO2 reductions between 2009 and 2050, while the percentage in parentheses refers to the annual reduction, in 2050.

© OECD/IEA 2012

Electricity generation scenarios

05 000

10 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 000

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGasCoal

67%49%

3%

13%

12%

19%36%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2050

RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS

4DS

In the 2DS, global electricity supply becomes decarbonised by 2050.

05 000

10 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 000

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGasCoal

67%

9%14%

13%

19%

19%

57%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2050

RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS

2DS

© OECD/IEA 2012

Electricity generation capacity

Generation capacity is higher in the 2DS due to great deployment of variable renewables with lower capacity factors.

© OECD/IEA 2012

Electricity system flexibility

Power system flexibility expresses the extent to which a power system can modify electricity production or consumption in response to variability, expected or otherwise.

± MW / time

© OECD/IEA 2012

Flexibility needs and resources

Existing and new flexibility needs can be met by a range of resources in the electricity system – facilitated by power system

markets, operation and hardware.

© OECD/IEA 2012

T&D infrastructure investments in the 4DS and 2DS are similar

...but sectoral allocation differs

© OECD/IEA 2012

Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor of between 1.5 and 4.5

..., but direct benefits of investment in one sector may be found in other sectors.

© OECD/IEA 2012

Low-carbon electricity is at the core of a sustainable energy system

ASEAN Context

© OECD/IEA 2012

CO2 emissions in the 2DS are brought back to today’s level.

ASEAN : Sectoral Contributions to achieve the 2DS from the 4DS

© OECD/IEA 2012

ASEAN : Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS

While the electricity mix in the 4DS is dominated by coal, renewables provide more than half of the electricity in the 2DS in 2050.

© OECD/IEA 2012

Key technologies to decarbonise ASEAN power generation

Renewables provide almost half of the CO2 reductions in the power sector in the 2DS.

© OECD/IEA 2012

Regional electricity mixes in the 2DS in 2050

Portfolios to decarbonise the power sector depend on regional challenges and opportunities.

25%

2%

7%

2%

19%

20%

5%

2%

4%

14%

0%

21%

6%

14%

10%

8%

23%

24%

5%

5%

24%

22%

17%

8%

28%

24%

22%

18%

60%

14%

13%

16%

7%

28%

2%

6%

6%

6%

10%

10%

21%

21%

1%

28%

15%

10%

7%

15%

29%

6%

19%

14%

16%

18%

22%

19%

9%

18%

7%

15%

17%

6%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

ASEAN

Brazil

China

EU

India

Mexico

Russia

South Africa

US

Fossil w/o CCS Fossil w CCS Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Other renewables

© OECD/IEA 2012

In the 2DS, electricity becomes a near zero carbon fuel by 2050

Carbon intensity drops by 90% by 2050 in the 2DS .

0100200300400500600700800900

1 000

2009 2030 2050 2030 2050

4DS 2DS

g CO

2-eq

/ kW

h

World European Union United States China India ASEAN

© OECD/IEA 2012

Natural gas is not a panacea

The global average CO2 intensity from power generation falls below the carbon intensity of CCGTs in 2025 in the 2DS; CCS can play a role

in reducing emissions from gas

© OECD/IEA 2012

Two very different profiles for natural gas use in power generation

Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS.

From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.

Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.

Notes: Natural gas-fired power generation includes generation in power plants equipped with CCS units. Biogas is not included here.

© OECD/IEA 2012

Buildings energy consumption

Strong population growth in ASEAN countries will drive energy demand upwards

© OECD/IEA 2012

Passenger light-duty vehicle sales

Passenger LDV’s are expected to grow significantly in the coming decades.

© OECD/IEA 2012

Transport energy use in 2050

Shipping energy use is substantial and efficiency improvements are expected to be limited

© OECD/IEA 2012

Final Global Comments

© OECD/IEA 2012

Clean energy investment pays off

© OECD/IEA 2012

Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

USD trillion

© OECD/IEA 2012

1. A sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist to take us there

2. Despite potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment

3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies

4. It even makes financial sense to do it.5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the

potential

Key messages

© OECD/IEA 2012

www.iea.org/etp

For much more, please visit

Ang Kian SengGroup Director, ResearchExecutive Director, BCA Centre for Sustainable Buildings

The Next ChallengeGreening Existing

Buildings in Singapore

Why Green our Built Environment?

End-Use Electricity Consumption in Singapore (2005)

BCA Green Mark Scheme

Estimated Energy Savings 10% to 15% 15% to 25% 25% to 30% > 30%

Singapore Green Building Roadmap at a glance

Envelop Thermal Transfer Value (ETTV)

CP24:1999 EE Standard for Bldg Services and equipment

2005(green buildings)

2005(green buildings)

80’s – 2005(Energy conservation)

Energy Efficient Building Awards (Oct 2001 to 2005)

80’s – 2005(Energy conservation)

Energy Efficient Building Awards (Oct 2001 to 2005)

2006 - 20072006 - 2007 20092009

Imposing Minimum Standards on Environmental Sustainability

All New Buildings and Existing Buildings undergoing major

retrofitting works (with GFA ≥ 2000 m2) to meet at least GM -Certified

Standard (April 2008)

Green Mark Building Projects in Singapore

Barriers to greening existing building

Training and Capacity Building- Green Collar workforceTraining and Capacity Building- Green Collar workforce

2700 attended Green Mark

Manager Course

540 attended Green Mark

Facilities Manager Course

190 attended Green Mark Professional

Course

>200 Certified Singapore

Certified Energy Manager

Newly introduced a Certificate Course in Measurement and Verification for Central Chilled Water Plant Efficiency – 120 attended

Green Buildings Enhance Asset ValueGreen Buildings Enhance Asset Value

BCA- NUS PROJECT ON VALUATION OF GREEN COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES

A saving of 10% in operating expense will translate into

a 2% increase in capital value.

• 4 weekly advertorials on business case of greening existing buildings

• In Straits Times July 2012

Green Building Advertorials

Upfront Capital cost

10% - 20%

•Invest in efficient Chiller Plant

Energy / maintenance cost

80% - 90%

Once in 15 years Opportunity

Incentives & Financing Assistance

S$100milIncentives for retrofitting

EXISTING BUILDINGS (since 2009)

Building Retrofit Energy Efficiency Building Retrofit Energy Efficiency Financing (BREEF) SchemeFinancing (BREEF) Scheme

Provide financing to Provide financing to undertake energy efficiency undertake energy efficiency

retrofitsretrofits

Enhanced GMIS-EB Qualifying Criteria

Green Mark Requirement (Ver 3) + Air-conditioning

System EfficiencyCo-funding Rate Cap Amount

Gold + 0.7 kW/RT 35% $1,500,000

Goldplus + 0.65 kW/RT 40% $2,250,000

Platinum + 0.6 kW/RT 50% $3,000,000

Up toS$3 Million

Enhanced Green Mark Incentive Scheme – Existing Buildings

Amended in July 2012

Co-fund includes supply & installation of energy efficient equipment and professional services

Four-Phased Approach to Green our Existing Building Stock

Legislation – New Bdgs (April 08)

Minimum EE Standards for New Building and Existing Buildings undergoing major retrofitting(GFA of >2000m2)

Incentive Scheme

(April 09)

GMIS (Existing Buildings) scheme co-fund upgrading for energy improvement.

Energy Data Submission

Yearly submission on energy consumption to BCA.Building owners to submit energy related building information.

Legislation –Existing

Buildings

Minimum EE standards for Existing Buildings and meet GM Certified

New and retrofitted existing buildings – 3 yearly system efficiency audit

• Three-yearly energy audit on cooling system

• Annual submission of building info & energy consumption data

• Min. GM standard for existing buildings

• Phase 1– Any hotel, retail building or

office building– GFA > 15,000m2

– Installing/replacing chilled-water cooling system.

– Must meet minimum GM Standard for Existing Buildings

• Lifespan of chilled-water cooling system is between 15 – 20 years

Energy Consumptions in Buildings

Cooling system

Lift

Lighting

Equipment

Others

Cooling system accounts for as much

as 50% of the building’s total energy

consumption.

Cooling system accounts for as much

as 50% of the building’s total energy

consumption.

Min. GM Standard for Existing Buildings

Planning

• Owner engages a PE(Mech).

• PE (Mech) looks into the overall building design and ensures that the building can achieve at least Green Mark 50 points.

• Owner to submit the Green Mark design score, retrofitted design, drawings, computations for approval before commencement of the energy improvement works.

Retrofitting

Completion

• Owner must complete the energy improvement works within three years from the date of approval of the design score by BCA.

• Submit the Green Mark as-built score (at least 50 points) (including commissioning of the cooling system).


Buildings involved

Existing buildings which have undergone retrofitting and are required to meet min. GM standard for existing buildings.

New buildings (except industrial and residential) with centralised chilled-water building cooling system which are required to comply with the enhanced Green Mark standards for new buildings implemented on 1 December 2010

3-Yearly System Efficiency Audit

Chiller Plant Load and Efficiency 3-Yearly System Efficiency Audit

BCA serve Notice to building owner to carry out energy audit

Building owner engage PE(Mech) or Energy Auditor to carry out energy audit and comply with requirements

Submit complying energy audit results to BCA by deadline stipulated in Notice

3-Yearly System Efficiency Audit

Purpose

Basis of the national energy benchmarks

Sharing of data with building owners for pro-active improvement to the energy performance of buildings

Measure effectiveness of energy efficiency initiatives

Annual Submission of Energy Data

Submit to BCA through Building Energy Submission System (BESS)

Useful links user submission manual technical guide demo-video


1000

1000

1000

Similar BuildingActivity Type (Average)

EEI of Your Building

Similar BuildingActivity Type (Lowest)

Similar BuildingActivity Type (Highest)


Green Buildings with Green Tenants

GM for Office Interior

GM for Restaurants

GM for Retail

GM for Supermarkets

GM for Non-Residential Building

New

New

We shape a safe, high quality, sustainable and friendly built environment.

Thank youThank you

roundtable b - energy technology perspectives

Education