mediterranean energy perspectives
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Mediterranean Energy Perspectives. MENA-OECD Task Force on Energy and Infrastructure 8th Meeting Paris 09. 03. 2012 Pedro Moraleda OME General Director. OME Membership. As of December 2011. Mediterranean Energy PERSPECTIVES 2011. Book released in December 2011 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Mediterranean Energy Perspectives
MENA-OECD Task Force on Energy and Infrastructure
8th Meeting Paris 09. 03. 2012
Pedro MoraledaOME General Director
OME Membership
As of December 2011 2
MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY PERSPECTIVES 2011
Book released in December 2011 Covers 24 countries, 19 of which
are modeled separately Uses OME Mediterranean Energy
Model compatible with IEA flows Presents supply/demand outlook
to 2030 by sector and by fuel Two demand scenarios depicted:
Conservative and Proactive
A comprehensive and quantitative study done by OME staff in cooperation with member
companies and local experts
3
Electricity production/demand in the South will nearly triple by 2030.
20% could be saved under a different scenario.
MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD
4
0
400
800
1200
1600
1990 2009 Conservative 2030 Proactive 2030
TWhSOUTH MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITYGENERATION
CHANGING PATTERNS IN POWER GENERATION
2009
559 TWh
2030
Electricity Efficiency
1535 TWh 1229 TWh
GENERATION MIX FORECAST SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN
-100-50
050
100150200250300350400
Oil Coal GasRenewableNuclearTWh
2009559 TWh
20301229 TWh
200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand.
32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.
ADDITIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY NEEDED
6
SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN
16% 14%5%
17%6%
5%
49%
50%
40%
3%
6%
18%
14%
15%
2%
13%
28%
50
100
150
200
250
300
350120 GW 321 GW 289 GWGW
Non-hydro RenewablesHydroNuclearGasOilCoal
2009 2030 PS2030 CS
Over 700 billion Euros will be needed to 2030.
Spared gas could compensate the additional cost of clean generation technologies.
POWER GENERATION INVESTMENTS 2010-2030
0
100
200
300
400
CS PS CS PS
billion Euros RenewablesNuclearFossil Fuels
North Med South Med
7
MEDITERRANEAN WIND OUTLOOK
8
Wind generation to increase six fold and South to supply one third of the total
by 2030.
0
100
200
300
400
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TWh Proactive Scenario
NorthSouth WestSouth East
68%
17%
15%
020406080
100120140160
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TWh Proactive Scenario
NorthSouth WestSouth East
OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR PV
9
Solar PV is expected to grow at a yearly rate of 15.5%
in the Mediterranean region (faster in the South).
71%
14%
15%
010203040506070
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
TWh Proactive Scenario
NorthSouth WestSouth East
OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR CSP
10
South Med countries are expected to produce half of total CSP-based electricity in the
region.
51%
33%
16%
