energy technology perspectives 2012
DESCRIPTION
Tapping technology's potential to secure a clean energy futureTRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 complete slide deck
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Table of contents 0. ContextPart 1. Vision, Status and Tools for the
Transition 1. Global Outlook 2. Tracking Clean Energy Progress 3. Policies to Promote Technology Innovatio
n 4. Financing the Clean Energy Revolution
Part 2. Energy Systems Thinking 5. Heating and Cooling 6. Flexible Electricity Systems 7. Hydrogen
Part 3. Fossil Fuels and CCS 8. Coal Technologies 9. Natural Gas Technologies 10. Carbon Capture and Storage Technologi
es
Part 4. Scenarios and Technology Roadmaps 11.
Electricity Generation and Fuel Transformation
12. Industry 13. Transport 14. Buildings 15. Roadmaps 16. 2075: can we reach zero emissions 17. Regional Spotlights
17.1 ASEAN 17.2 Brazil 17.x Japan 17.3 China 17.4 European Union 17.5 India 17.6 Mexico 17.7 Russia 17.8 South Africa 17.9 United States
To jump to a specific section: Right click, then hit “open hyperlink”
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ContextChapter 0
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ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
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6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
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Sustainable future still in reach
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Are we on track to reach a clean
energy future?
NO ✗
Can we get on track?
YES ✓
Is a clean energy transition urgent?
YES ✓
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Recommendations to Governments
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1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
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Key messages
1. Sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist to take us there
2. Despite potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment
3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies
4. It even makes financial sense to do it!5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the
potential
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Global OutlookChapter 1
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Choosing the future energy system
To achieve the 2DS, energy-related C02 emissions must be halved until 2050.
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Decoupling energy use from economic activity
Reducing the energy intensity of the economy is vital to achieving the 2DS.
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All sectors need to contribute
The core of a clean energy system is low-carbon electricity that diffuses into all end-use sectors.
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A portfolio of technologies is needed
Energy efficiency is the hidden fuel that increases energy security and mitigates climate change.
Technology contributions to reaching the 2DS vs 4DS
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CCS20%
Renewables29%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency
31%
End-use fuel switching9%
Nuclear8%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching
3%
Energy efficiency is the hidden fuel that increases energy security and mitigates climate change.
Alternative representation
A portfolio of technologies is needed Technology contributions to reaching the 2DS vs 4DS
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All technologies have roles to play
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Nuclear is one piece of the puzzle
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
Nuclear 8% (8%)
End-use fuel switching 12% (12%)
End-use fuel and electricity ef-ficiency 42% (39%)
Renewables 21% (23%)
CCS 14% (17%)
2DS
Gt C
O2
Technology contributions to reaching the 2DS vs 6DS
Alternative representation vs 6DS
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The cost of emitting a tonne of CO2
Marginal abatement costs reach USD 150 in 2050 and increase rapidly as reductions get deeper.
Marginal abatement cost curve in electricity generation in 2050
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Marginal abatement costs change over time
The marginal abatement costs decrease as learning improves over time.
Passenger LDV marginal abatement cost curves in 2DS
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Learning needs to deliver cost reductions
Future marginal abatement cost curves are very sensitive to input assumptions
Passenger LDV marginal abatement cost curves in 2DS in 2050 under different assumptions on learning
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Tracking Clean Energy ProgressChapter 2
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Near term action necessary in all sectors
Global CO2 emissions under ETP 2012 scenarios
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Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
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Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas
Significant action is required to get back on track
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Fossil fuels continued to dominate
Changes in sources of electricity supply, 2000-09
Coal remains the largest source of electricity supply, and met about half of additional electricity demand over the last decade.
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Global renewable power generation
42%Average annual
growth in Solar PV
27%Average annual growth in wind
75%Cost reductions in
Solar PV in just three years in
some countries
Renewables provide good news
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Fuel economy has improved
Vehicle fuel economy, enacted and proposed standards
The number one opportunity over the next decade in the transport sector, but few countries have standards in place.
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We must translate ambitions into reality
Government and manufacturer Electric Vehicle targets
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Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.
Progress in energy intensity
Energy intensity must decline further
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Key recommendations
1) Level the playing field for clean energy technologies
2) Unlock the potential of energy efficiency
3) Accelerate energy innovation and public research, development & demonstration
Help move clean energy from fringe, to main stream markets…
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Policies to Promote Technology InnovationChapter 3
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Key findings
Investment in energy research by IEA governments has been decreasing as a share of total national RD&D budgets, and stands at 4%
Patents for renewable energy technology increased fourfold since 2000, but were concentrated in solar PV and wind
The maturity, modularity and scalability of PV and onshore wind have enabled them to take off
Meanwhile, high capital costs and perceived risks are holding back pre-commercial technologies like CCS, IGCC and CSP, which appear to be stuck at the demonstration phase
Carbon pricing, energy efficiency policy and technology support are the backbone of a least-cost package to achieve 2DS, but the interactions among policies should be managed carefully
Optimum combinations of policies should be based on characteristics of comparable technologies that share similar impediments to development, deployment and diffusion
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Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
5
10
15
20
25
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Shar
e of
ene
rgy
RD&
D in
tota
l R&
D
USD
bill
ion
Energy RD&D Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
0
1
2
3
4
Braz
il
Chin
a
Indi
a
Mex
ico
Russ
ia
Sout
h A
fric
a
USD
bill
ion
2008 non-IEA country spending
OECD R&D spending
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Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
5
10
15
20
25
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Shar
e of
ene
rgy
RD&
D in
tota
l R&
D
USD
bill
ion
Energy efficiency Fossil fuels
Renewable energy Nuclear
Hydrogen and fuel cells Other power and storage technologies
Other cross cutting technologies/research Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
0
1
2
3
4
Braz
il
Chin
a
Indi
a
Mex
ico
Russ
ia
Sout
h A
fric
a
USD
bill
ion
2008 non-IEA country spending
OECD R&D spending
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The IEA has called for a twofold to fivefold increase in annual public RD&D spending on low carbon technologies to achieve the 2DS.
OECD R&D spending
Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Defence
Health andenvironmentGeneraluniversity fundsNon-orientedresearchSpaceprogrammesEnergy
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy patents have increased sharply since 2000, driven by solar PV and wind
The US, Japan and Germany are the top three inventor countries for most technologies, but China has been catching up.
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Develop a national energy strategy with clear priorities Increase R&D funding Create mechanisms to fund capital-intensive demonstration Design policies to support early deployment and drive private
investment Expand international collaboration
Building from national leadership to promote low-carbon innovation
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There is a wide selection of technology-push and market-pull policy instruments
The use of multiple, integrated instruments may be justified to develop and deploy new and improved technologies.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The core policy mix
Carbon price, energy efficiency policy and technology support are the backbone of a least-cost package to achieve 2DS.
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Emission trading systems need to take into account the impact of supplementary policy
Over- or under-delivery of supplementary policy targets can lead to significant swings in demand for allowances, and hence greater
uncertainty in carbon prices.
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Early support for new technologies can lower their cost
But technology learning is not a justification for any level of early support.
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New technologies take time to scale up
Time, as well as cost, is a relevant factor in the justification for early support of emerging technologies.
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Optimum combination of policies can accelerate clean energy uptake
Policy measures can be tailored to specific categories of technologies, according to the challenge they aim to address.
Note: The darker the colour, the greater the challenge for the related policy measures
© OECD/IEA 2012
An energy innovation policy framework
Government should create an environment in which clean energy innovation can thrive and within which policies are regularly evaluated to ensure that they are
effective and efficient.
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Financing the Clean Energy RevolutionChapter 4
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Clean energy investment pays off
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Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
- 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
10%
Undiscounted
Fuel savings
Additionalinvestment
Tota
l sav
ings
USD trillion
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional investment
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
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Investment needs to 2020
Investments in buildings sector dominates in all countries, highlighting importance of energy efficiency
Additional investments in the 2DS, compared to 6DS
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Additional investment needs in 2DS
Additional Investments in transport dominate between 2020 and 2050
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Annual additional investments in 2DS
Additional investments in non-OECD countries exceed the pledged climate finance, but the incremental cost is much less due to fuel savings
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Power generation: Additional investments in 2DS
Renewable energy sources dominate investments in power generation in the 2DS.
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Power generation: annual investments 2DS
In the 2DS, investments in coal-fired plants do not decline significantly until after 2020.
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Transport : Additional investments
.
The cost of decarbonising the transport sector accelerates after 2030 as greater investments are made in advanced vehicles and low-carbon options
in air, shipping and rail.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Buildings: Average annual investments
In the 2DS, higher investments will be needed for more efficient HVAC systems and building shell improvements.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Industry: Total investments to 2050
Investments needed in the 2DS are moderately higher than in the 6DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional invest-ment
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Total
Fuel savings
Additional invest-ment
10%
3%
Undiscounted
Without _x000d_price effect
With _x000d_price effect
Additional_x000d_investment
Tota
l sav
ings
Fuel
savi
ngs
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Additional invest-ment
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
- 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
10%
Undiscounted
Fuel savings
Additionalinvestment
Tota
l sav
ings
USD trillion
Power
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fuel savings
Additional investment
© OECD/IEA 2012
Conclusions
Investment in low carbon technologies need to double current levels by 2020, reaching USD 500 bn annually
Balance between ensuring investors confidence and controlling total policy costs
Need for coordination on energy, climate and investment policies
Uncertainty in national regulatory policies and support frameworks remains key obstacle to finance
Greater dialogue needed between governments and investors
What can be done to incentives a move towards sustainable long term investments?
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy Systems Thinking
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A smart, sustainable energy system
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A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
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The Global Energy system today
Dominated by fossil fuels in all sectors
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The future low-carbon energy system
The 2DS in 2050 shows a dramatic shift in energy sources and demands
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating and CoolingChapter 5
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Heating & Cooling: huge potential
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Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Decarbonising heating and cooling: neglected but necessary
Heating and cooling account for 46% of final energy consumption worldwide.
Total final energy consumption by region as electricity, heat, transportand non-energy uses, 2009
© OECD/IEA 2012
Decarbonising the existing buildings stock
In OECD countries, more than two-thirds of existing older buildings will still be standing in 2050.
However, in non-OECD countries, an estimated 52% to 64% of the building stock that will exist by 2050 has not yet been built
© OECD/IEA 2012
Large quantities of heat losses can be recuperated
More then 50% of energy input of thermal power plants is wasted in cooling towers and rivers.
Heat loss in power generation by region, 2009
© OECD/IEA 2012
District energy networks can reduce CO2 intensity
Biomass and a mix of other renewable energy sources make up almost three-quarters of primary energy consumption in 2050.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heat pumps offer great potential under the right conditions
Poor installations can increase the costs of decarbonising electricity networks…
…but smart control coupled with storage could minimise their possible impacts.
Electricity load curve in the high-penetration base and smart case studies
© OECD/IEA 2012
Integrating heat within the energy system can lower costs and help decarbonisation in other
sectors
Heat pumps and co-generation are not conflicting technologies
© OECD/IEA 2012
Flexible Electricity SystemsChapter 6
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Lower electrical energy demand in 2DS even though electricity is larger proportion of overall energy demand.
Global Electrical Energy Generation
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity generation capacity
Generation capacity is higher in the 2DS due to great deployment of variable renewables with lower capacity factors.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity system flexibility
Power system flexibility expresses the extent to which a power system can modify electricity production or consumption in
response to variability, expected or otherwise.
± MW / time
© OECD/IEA 2012
Flexibility needs and resources
Existing and new flexibility needs can be met by a range of resources in the electricity system – facilitated by power system
markets, operation and hardware.
© OECD/IEA 2012
No “one-time” fits all
Balancing of the electricity system needs to address several time frames for response and duration, impacting choice of technology.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The need for flexibility is increasing
All regions under all scenarios show an increasing need for electricity system flexibility.
GW
© OECD/IEA 2012
Flexibility from power generation
CCGT
OCGT
Coal (conventional)
Hydro
Nuclear
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0 10 20 30
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90100
0 5 10 15 20
0 5 10 15 20
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50Start-up time [hours] Ramp rate [% per min] Time from 0 to full rate [hour] Minimum stable load factor [%]
All generation technologies have the technical ability to provide some flexibility.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Flexibility from power generation
CCGT Co-generation
Diesel and CCGT
standby Bio-energy Wind PVs Large Micro
> 100 MW 1 - 100 MW 1 - 5 kW <50 MW 1 - 100 MW < 100kW
Frequency limited
Reserve possible if high penetration
Reactive
Network support if high
penetration
Grid support from distributed generation should be enabled.
Ancillary services
provided?
Yes
Possible
© OECD/IEA 2012
Two very different profiles for natural gas use in power generation
Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
Notes: Natural gas-fired power generation includes generation in power plants equipped with CCS units. Biogas is not included here.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mode of operation of natural gas plants differs according to scenario
Gas increasingly provides base load in the 4DS and peak load in the 2DS
The lowering of the capacity factor threatens the viability of existing plants and detracts from investment in new plants.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The demand side flexibility resource is large and under utilised
All regions exhibit a significant demand side flexibility resource – especially for regulation and load following.
© OECD/IEA 2012
North American sectoral resource
Demand-side energy efficiency decreases resource.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Storage – a game changer or niche player?
Existing installations and niche applications will play a definite role in the future, but cost
concerns exist for new deployments.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Storage technology cost vary widely
Application specific deployment is key for successful business case development.
© OECD/IEA 2012
3 drivers in grid development Grid extension Grid renewal Renewable integration
Data sources: power sector: IEA statistics and ETP 2012 scenarios T&D grid length and age: ABS Energy Research
Methodology – T&D analysis
© OECD/IEA 2012
T&D infrastructure investments in the 4DS and 2DS are similar
...but sectoral allocation differs
© OECD/IEA 2012
Cumulative costs and benefits of smart grids versus conventional T&D systems in the 2DS to 2050
2DS offers new challenges and opportunities for T&D systems
Smart-grids’ costs are substantial, but estimated benefits do exceed investment.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Long-run incremental social costs and benefits compared to a conventional T&D grid
Costs - bottom up approach Technology costs are calculated by multiplying units
required, market penetration, and unit cost component replacement at the end of its technical
lifetime. Data: EPRI, IEE, CER, expert interview
Benefits CO2 savings, capital cost savings, extended lifetime,
increased reliability, reduced operational cost. Methodology from: IEA, EPRI
Methodology – Smart grids
© OECD/IEA 2012
Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor of between 1.5 and 4.5
..., but direct benefits of investment in one sector may be found in other sectors.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Technology choices in electricity system flexibility
© OECD/IEA 2012
What do we need to do? Barriers?
Use systems based approaches – utilise flexibility resources from all parts of the electricity system
Learn by doing - increased pilot and demonstration projects will enable of real-world solutions for flexibility
Support new technology deployment – develop regulatory and market solutions that allow new technologies and new actors to support system operation
Determine regulatory approaches that support conventional and new technologies – and adequately share costs, benefits and risks.
© OECD/IEA 2012
HydrogenChapter 7
© OECD/IEA 2012
H2 is a flexible energy carrier
H2 is one of only a few
near-zero-emissions energy carriers(along with electricity and bio-fuels)
with potential applicationsacross all end-use sectors.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy storage in H2
Source: NREL 2009
H2 storage may be cost competitive in the future.
© OECD/IEA 2012
FCEV are still expensive
H2 could be used in fuel-cell vehicles such as longer range cars and trucks.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Decarbonisation of road transport saves money
Investment in H2 technology decreases savings but opens the way towards sustainability.
© OECD/IEA 2012
A pathway for H2 infrastructure roll-out
Optimisation of centralised and decentralised H2 production is one of the major challenges.
© OECD/IEA 2012
H2 T&D infrastructure investments
H2 infrastructure to serve a fleet of 500 million FCEVs by 2050 would cost, which equals roughly 1% of
total spending in vehicles and fuels.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Post 2050: H2 an alternative to bioenergy
Post 2050, hydrogen could become an important energy carrier in a clean energy system, especially if
bioenergy resources are limited.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Future of Fossil Fuels
© OECD/IEA 2012
Prim
ary
ener
gy d
eman
d (E
J)
Fossil fuels dominate energy demand …
Demand for coal over the last 10 years has been growing much faster than for any other energy sources.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Non-fossil power generation
© OECD/IEA 2012
Ele
ctric
ity g
ener
atio
n (
TW
h)
Sha
re o
f el
ectr
icity
(%
)
Share of coal-based electricity
Share of non-fossil electricity
Nuclear
Hydro
Non-hydro renewables
Despite an increasing contribution across two decades, the share of non-fossil generation has failed to keep pace with
the growth in generation from fossil fuels.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Coal TechnologiesChapter 8
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key findings
Coal demand and generation of electricity from coal both need to fall by more than 40% to meet the 2DS.
Substantial numbers of old, inefficient coal power plants remain in operation.
The increasing use of widely available, low-cost, poor-quality coal is a cause for concern.
Supercritical technology, at a minimum, should be deployed on all combustion installations.
Research, development and demonstration of advanced technologies should be actively promoted.
To achieve deeper cuts, CCS offers the potential to reduce CO2 emissions to less than 100 g/kWh.
It is important to reduce local pollution for coal.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Coal
rese
rve
(Gt)
Coal is abundant and widely available
Sufficient coal reserves exist for an estimated 150 years of generation at current consumption rates.
Brown coal
Hard coal
© OECD/IEA 2012
Reducing emissions from coal is critical
Reducing non-GHG emissions is also important to maintain or improve air quality locally.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Elec
tric
ity g
ener
ation
from
coa
l (TW
h)Policy and regulation play a major role
4DS
2DS
Encourage reduction of generation from inefficient plants and switching from coal to gas, renewables and nuclear.
Policy and Regulation
Coal Coal with CCS Electricity reduction in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
750
500
1000 gCO 2/kWh
CO2 e
mis
sion
s (G
t)
Technology development coupled with targeted policies and regulation are essential to realise the 2DS target in 2050.
Electricity (TWh)
CO2 intensity must also be reduced
250
2050(4DS)
2050(2DS)
2010
Tech
nolo
gy d
evel
opm
ent
Policy and regulation
© OECD/IEA 2012
Efficiency (LHV, net)
Advanced-USC
SupercriticalUltra-supercritical
Subcritical
90%
CO2 in
tens
ity
(gCO
2/kW
h)Raising plant efficiency: reduces emissions of CO2, and reduces the cost of CCS.
Couple efficient plant with CCS
If CCS is applied to an average subcritical plant, its efficiency would drop by one-third.
Without CCS
With CCS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Capa
city
(GW
)
Adoption of best practice technology is needed to raise average efficiency
Potential for capacity growth in coal-fired power generation is seen mostly in non-OECD countries such as
China and India.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Reducing CO2 emissions
© OECD/IEA 2012
Glo
bal e
lect
ricity
gen
erat
ion
from
coa
l (T
Wh)
2. Supercritical
3. Plants with CCS
2. USC
1. Subcritical
1. Reduce generation from least efficient plant2. Increase capacity of more efficient plant3. Deploy CCS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Carbon lock-in must be avoided
To meet the 2DS, generation from subcritical plants would cease before end of their natural lifetimes.
Including construction plans up to 2015
Generation from subcritical units should be reduced; future capacity additions should be supercritical or better.
Existing plants built before 2000
Capa
city
(GW
)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Development of advanced technology is essential
Ultra-supercritical plants are currently operated in various countries including China.
Ultra-supercritical
Supercritical
Subcritical
Ste
am
te
mp
era
ture
(°C
)
Advanced USC 700oCDemonstrations are being planned from 2020 - 2025
© OECD/IEA 2012
Opportunities and recommendations
Strong policies will be essential if these goals are to be met.
Technologies to address the environmental impacts of sharply increased coal use must be used.
Increasing the average efficiency of global coal-fired power generation plants will be essential over the next 10 to 15 years: Deploy supercritical and ultra-supercritical technologies Minimise generation from older, less efficient coal plants Accelerate development of advanced technology.
CCS must be developed and demonstrated rapidly if it is to be deployed widely after 2020.
Finally, there must be a shift away from reliance on coal. In a truly low-carbon future, coal will not be the dominant energy source.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural Gas Technologies
Chapter 9
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key findings
Increasing production of unconventional gas leads to an improvement in energy security in many regions.
Continuous technology improvement at each stage of unconventional gas exploration and production is essential
In the 2DS:• Natural gas will retain an important role in the power,
buildings and industry sectors to 2050.• The share of natural gas in total primary energy
demand declines more slowly – and later (after 2030) – than other fossil fuels.
• Natural gas acts as a transitional fuel towards a low-carbon energy system.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The share of unconventional gas of total gas supply continues to increase in both 4DS and 2DS.
Unconventional gas rises in importance
© OECD/IEA 2012
Continuous technology improvement at each stage of exploration and production goes hand in hand with
reducing the environmental impact of those processes.
Continuous technology improvement is essential
© OECD/IEA 2012
Technology needs and solutions should be adapted according to experience and geographical location.
Maturity of technology and experience can differ widely
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas is the second-largest source of primary energy in 2050
Although the share of fossil fuels in total primary energy production declines by 2050, the share of natural gas
declines least.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Power sector is the dominant consumer of natural gas
To achieve the 2DS, natural gas consumption needs to be reduced strongest in the power sector.
Note: For power, including co-generation, and for commercial heat, gas contribution represents gas input to the plants
© OECD/IEA 2012
Two very different profiles for natural gas use in power generation
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS.
Note: Natural gas-fired generation includes generation in power plants equipped with CCS units. Biogas is not included.
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
4DS
OECD Non-OECD
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
2DS
Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
2DS4DS
Natural gas as a transitional fuel
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mode of operation of natural gas plants differs according to scenario
The lowering of the capacity factor threatens the viability of existing plants and detracts from investment in new plants.
Gas increasingly provides base load in the 4DS and peak load in the 2DS.
Note: Generation from gas-fired plants equipped with CCS is not included
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas becomes a ‘high-carbon fuel’ after 2025
CCGTs are the most efficient natural gas-fired power generation plants, with a CO2 intensity almost half that of the best coal-
fired plant.
The global average CO2 intensity from natural gas-fired power generation falls below the carbon intensity of
CCGTs in 2025.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Gas technologies in the power sector are essential to achieve the 2DS
Continuous technology improvement will be necessary to achieve efficiency increases and to reduce the cost of CCS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Efficiency improvement plays an important role
Whether open-cycle or combined-cycle, larger capacity plants are generally capable of achieving higher efficiencies.
State-of-the-art CCGT has reached 60% efficiency, while some emerging technologies have the potential to reach 70%.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Gas-fired power generation complements variable renewables
Both OCGT and CCGT are sufficiently flexible in their responses to meet unexpected variations in demand.
OCGTs are less costly and have a smaller footprint, but are much less efficient than CCGTs.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Biogas and CCS are essential components of a low-carbon future
In the 2DS, 40% of the electricity generated from gas comes from natural gas with CCS and biogas.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Opportunities and recommendations
Regulation to mitigate the potential for environmental risks associated with production of unconventional gas must be introduced.
Gas-fired technologies to provide flexibility for power generation will be essential over the short term.
Over the next ten years, gas will displace significant coal-fired power generation – though it should be noted, natural gas-fired generation will itself need to be displaced in the longer term to decarbonise the power sector still further.
First-generation, large-scale gas plants with CCS need to be demonstrated and deployed.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Carbon Capture and Storage TechnologiesChapter 10
© OECD/IEA 2012
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) contributes one-fifth of total emissions reductions through 2050
The technology portfolio includes CCSEm
issi
ons
(GtC
O2)
20%29%
8%
© OECD/IEA 2012
In the near term, the largest amount of CO2 is captured in OECD countries; by 2050, CO2 capture in non-OECD countries dominates
CCS must grow rapidly around the globeCO
2 Cap
ture
d (G
tCO
2)
© OECD/IEA 2012
The majority of CO2 is captured from power generation globally, but in some regions CO2 captured from industrial applications dominates
CCS is applied in power and industry
Note: Capture rates shown in MtCO2/year
© OECD/IEA 2012
CCS in power generation
Photo: Vattenfall
© OECD/IEA 2012
Three CO2 capture routes in power
At the present time, none of the options is superior; each has particular characteristics making it suitable in different power
generation applications
• Fossil fuel or biomass is burnt normally and CO2 is separated from the exhaust gas
Post-combustion CO2 capture
• Fossil fuel or biomass is converted to a mixture of hydrogen and CO2, from which the CO2 is separated and hydrogen used for fuel
Pre-combustion CO2 capture
• Oxygen is separated from air, and fossil fuels or biomass are then burnt in an atmosphere of oxygen producing only CO2 and water
Oxy-combustion CO2 capture
© OECD/IEA 2012
At the present time, no one route is clearly superior to another; each has particular characteristics that make it suitable in different cases of power generation fuelled by coal, oil, natural gas and biomass.
Three CO2 capture routes in power
© OECD/IEA 2012
Capture technologies are ready
Pre-combustion
Post-combustion
Oxy-combustion
Inherent Other
Electric
power
Gas Concept. Pilot Pilot Concept. (CLC)
Coal Pilot Pilot Pilot Concept. (CLC)
Biomass Concept. Concept. Concept.
Industrial applications
Fuel processing
Pilot Pilot
Iron and steelPilot Pilot
Pilot (Hisarna, Ulcored)Demo (FINEX)
Commercial (DRI, COREX)
Biomass conversion
Pilot Demo Commercial
Cement manufacture
Pilot PilotConcept.
(Carbonate looping)
High-purity sources
Pliot Commercial
Numerous routes to CO2 capture are in pilot-testing or demonstration stages for power and industrial applications; some are commercially available today
© OECD/IEA 2012
No one technology is a clear winner, yet…
Coal Natural gas
Capture route Post-combustion Pre-combustion Oxy-combustion Post-combustion
Reference plant without capture PC IGCC PC NGCC
Net efficiency with capture (LHV, %)
30.9 33.1 31.9 48.4
Net efficiency penalty (LHV, percentage points)
10.5 7.5 9.6 8.3
Relative net efficiency penalty 25% 20% 23% 15%
Overnight cost with capture (USD/kW)
3 808 3 714 3 959 1 715
Relative overnight cost increase 75% 44% 74% 82%
LCOE with capture (USD/MWh) 107 104 102 102
Relative LCOE increase 63% 39% 64% 33%
Cost of CO2 avoided
(USD/tCO2)
58 43 52 80
Applying CCS to a power plant will likely increase the LCOE by one- to two-thirds depending on the type of plant, relative to a similar power plant without CCS
© OECD/IEA 2012
CCS is expected to be cost-competitive
© OECD/IEA 2012
CCS is applied to coal, gas and biomass
In 2050, 63% of coal-fired electricity generation (630 GW) is CCS equipped, 18% of gas (280 GW) and 9% of biomass (50 GW)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Generation from CCS equipped plants grows
Power plants with CCS produce 15% of electricity in 2050, while fossil-fueled plants without CCS produce only 10%
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas is not a panacea
The global average CO2 intensity from power generation falls below the carbon intensity of CCGTs in 2025 in the 2DS; CCS can play a role
in reducing emissions from gas
© OECD/IEA 2012
CCS is deployed globally for power
In OECD North America, almost all coal-fired and 36% of gas-fired generation is CCS equipped; nearly two-thirds of coal-fired generation
in China is equipped with CCS
Gen
erati
on c
apac
ity (G
W)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Retrofitting CCS to coal-fired generation
The more than 1 600 GW of installed coal-fired generation emitted almost 9 GtCO2 in 2010; more than 350 GW were added in the past five years.
In most general terms, larger, more efficient (i.e. younger) plants are suitable for retrofit: today, 471 GW of coal-fired plants are larger than 300 MW and younger than 10 years
In the 2DS, 150 GW of supercritical and ultra-supercritical capacity are retired because they are uneconomic for retrofit due, and
100 GW of coal are retrofitted with CCS
© OECD/IEA 2012
In most general terms, larger, more efficient (i.e. younger) plants are
suitable for retrofit
In the 2DS, through 2050:
700 GW of subcritical capacity is retired
150 GW of uneconomic supercritical and ultra-supercritical are retired
100 GW of coal are retrofitted with CCS
Retrofitting CCS to coal-fired generation
Source: IEA, 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
CCS in industrial applications
Photo: BP
© OECD/IEA 2012
Industrial processes suited to CCSDilute exhaust
streamse.g. blast furnaces and
cement kilns Post-
combustion
Oxy-Combustion
Pre-combustion
Concentrated vent streams
e.g. gas processing, NH3 and ethanol production
Some industrial processes produce highly concentrated CO2 vent streams; capture from these “high-purity” sources is relatively straightforward
Other industrial applications require additional CO2 separation technologies to concentrate dilute streams of CO2
The same CO2 separation technologies applied in power generation can be applied to industrial sources
Industrial applications of CCS
© OECD/IEA 2012
A wide range of abatement costs through CCS exists in industrial applications
Cost of CCS in industry varies widely
© OECD/IEA 2012
Industrial applications play an important role
Non-OECD countries account for 72% of cumulative CO2 captured from industrial applications of CCS between 2015 and 2050 – China
alone accounts for 21% of the global total
CO2 C
aptu
red
(GtC
O2/
y)
© OECD/IEA 2012
The predominant industrial application of CCS will vary by region and over time
Industrial applications vary by region
Note: Capture rates shown in MtCO2/year
© OECD/IEA 2012
Negative emissions from BECCS
Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can result in permanent net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, i.e. “negative CO2 emissions”
In BECCS, energy is provided by biomass, which removed atmospheric carbon while it was growing, and the CO2 emissions from its use are captured and stored through CCS
BECCS can be applied to a wide range of biomass conversion processes and may be attractive cost-effective in many cases
Biomass must be grown and harvested sustainably, as this significantly impacts the level of emissions reductions that can be achieved
© OECD/IEA 2012
Between 2015 and 2050, 123 Gt of CO2 are captured that need to be transported to suitable sites and stored safely and effectively. Storage sites will need to be developed all around the world.
Where is CO2 storage needed?
Note: Mass captured shown in GtCO2
© OECD/IEA 2012
Total investment for CCS: 3.6 trillion USD
© OECD/IEA 2012
Transport Most straightforward and well-known
step in the CCS chain Pipeline and ship (or barge) are the only
practical options at scale In 2010, over 60 MtCO2 were
transported through a 6 600 km pipeline network in the United States
Cost of transport is generally low, but is a function of distance, capacity, and terrain
Transport by ship or barge is generally more expensive than by pipeline over short distances
Storage Fundamental physical processes and
engineering aspects of geologic storage are well understood
Suitable geologic formations must have sufficient capacity and injectivity, and prevent CO2 (and brine) from reaching the atmosphere, sources of potable groundwater and other sensitive regions in the subsurface
Storage assessments suggest that the available global pore space resource is sufficient to store 123 GtCO2
Storage cost of storage is highly variable: US cost estimates for onshore saline aquifers range from less than USD 1/tCO2 to over USD 20/t of CO2 stored
Transport and storage challenges
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommended actions for the near term
The gap between the current trajectory for CCS and the 2DS can be bridged, but concerted policy action is necessary from both industry and all levels of government
1. Government must assess the role of CCS in their energy futures, develop suitable deployment strategies for CCS and a clear timeline to develop enabling regulations
2. Government and industry must redouble efforts to demonstrate CCS at a commercial scale in different locations and technical configurations—including large-scale CO2 storage projects
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommended actions for the near term
3. Government must implement appropriate and transparent incentives to drive CCS deployment; long-term climate change mitigation commitments and policy actions are necessary
4. Government must develop enabling legal and regulatory frameworks for demonstration and deployment of CCS, so that lack of regulation does not unnecessarily impede or slow deployment
5. Government and industry must develop clear, accurate information on the geographic distribution of storage capacity and associated costs for storing CO2
6. Government and industry increase emphasis on CO2 transport and storage infrastructure development so that integrated CCS projects can be successful
7. All parties must engage the public at both policy and project levels. A lack of transparency and a two-way flow of information from early stages can be fatal for CCS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity Generation and Fuel TransformationChapter 11
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy and CO2 impacts of electricity generation
Power sector accounted in 2009 for almost 40% of global primary energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions.
Power38%
Industry21%
Transport18%
Buildings15%
Other transformation6%
Agriculture2%
Power38%
Industry26%
Transport20%
Buildings9%
Other transformation5%
Agriculture2%
Total primary energy use: 509 EJ in 2009
Total energy-related CO2 emissions:31.4 Gt in 2009
© OECD/IEA 2012
Past trends in power generation
Global electricity generation by fuel Incremental generation 1990-2009
Increase in electricity generation over the last two decades largely covered by fossil fuels, but strong growth rates for
renewables .
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear
TWh
non-OECD
OECD
© OECD/IEA 2012
Age distribution of existing power plants
Ageing infrastructure is the challenge in many OECD countries, whereas emerging economies have to cope with a growing demand for electricity.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Carbon lock-in must be avoided
To meet the 2DS, generation from subcritical plants would need to cease before end of their technical lifetimes.
Including construction plans up to 2015
Existing plants built before 2000
Capa
city
(GW
)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity demand
Liquid fuel demand is stabilised at today’s level in 2050 in the 2DS, largely due to efficiency improvements and electrification in the
transport sector.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity demand
Strong growth in electricity demand in emerging economies across all sectors, whereas in OECD countries consumption is driven by
electrification of the transport and buildings sector.
Incremental final electricity demand between 2009-2050 in the 2DS
Alternative representation
© OECD/IEA 2012
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000 OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGas with CCSGasCoal with CCSCoal
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in 2050 in the 2DS
TW
h
Global electricity generation in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity generation scenarios
In the 2DS, global electricity supply becomes decarbonised by 2050.
67%49%
3%
13%
12%
19%36%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2050
RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS
67%
9%14%
13%
19%
19%
57%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2050
RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS
4DS
2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Power generation; Nuclear
© OECD/IEA 2012
Without further action, nuclear deployment in 2025 will be below levels in the 2DS, although a majority of key countries
remain committed to nuclear.
Global installed capacity
© OECD/IEA 2012
Average annual capacity additions
Massive acceleration of deployment of low-carbon power technologies is needed over the next four decades.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Coal with CCS
Gas with CCS
Biomass
Wind, onshore
Wind, offshore
PV
CSP
Nuclear
Hydro
GW per year
2030-50
2020-30
2010-20
2006-10
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity demand savings and renewables are each responsible for one-third of the cumulative CO2 reductions in
the power sector in the 2DS.
All technologies have roles to play
© OECD/IEA 2012
All technologies have roles to play
© OECD/IEA 2012
Nuclear is one piece of the puzzle
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
Nuclear 8% (8%)
End-use fuel switching 12% (12%)
End-use fuel and electricity ef-ficiency 42% (39%)
Renewables 21% (23%)
CCS 14% (17%)
2DS
Gt C
O2
Technology contributions to reaching the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity demand savings and renewables are each responsible for one-third of the cumulative CO2 reductions in
the power sector in the 2DS.
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
4DS Electricitysavings 28%
Fuel switchingand efficiency
5%
Nuclear 14% CCS 18% Wind 14% Solar 12% Otherrenewables 9%
2DS
Gt C
O2
Alternative representation
All technologies have roles to play
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key technologies to reduce CO2 in the power sector
Renewables provide more than one third of the cumulative reductions needed to decarbonise electricity supply in the 2DS.
Cumulative reductions in the power sector of 474 Gt between 2009 and 2050 in the 2DS (relative to the 6DS)
Electricity savings38%
Fuel switching and efficiency4%CCS
12%
Nuclear13%
Hydro4%
Biomass4%
Solar11%
Wind13%
Geothermal2%
Ocean0.4%
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity generation mix
Other technology portfolios reach the same reduction as in the 2DS, but, with the exception of the 2DS-hiNuc variant, at higher costs.
67% 68%
49%
9% 13% 12% 10%
3%
14% 7% 7%
19% 24%
36%
57%63%
71%
49%
13% 9% 12% 19% 25%11%
34%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
6DS 4DS 2DS 2DS-NoCCS 2DS-hiRen 2DS-HiNuc
2009 2050
Nuclear
Renewables
Fossil w/ CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
4DS 2DS 2DS-NoCCS 2DS-hiRen 2DS-HiNuc
USD
trill
ion
Cumulative additional costsrel. to 6DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
There are many routes to decarbonisation
Portfolios to decarbonise the power sector depend on regional challenges and opportunities.
25%
2%
7%
2%
19%
20%
5%
2%
4%
14%
0%
21%
6%
14%
10%
8%
23%
24%
5%
5%
24%
22%
17%
8%
28%
24%
22%
18%
60%
14%
13%
16%
7%
28%
2%
6%
6%
6%
10%
10%
21%
21%
1%
28%
15%
10%
7%
15%
29%
6%
19%
14%
16%
18%
22%
19%
9%
18%
7%
15%
17%
6%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
ASEAN
Brazil
China
EU
India
Mexico
Russia
South Africa
US
Fossil w/o CCS Fossil w CCS Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Other renewables
Regional electricity mixes in the 2DS in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables: Central to reach the 2DS
Renewables provide almost 30% of the cumulative reductions needed to reach the 2DS.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
CCS 22%
Nuclear 9%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3%
Renewables 28%
End-use fuel switching 9%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 31%
6DS
4DS
2DS
CCS 22%
Nuclear 9%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3%
Renewables 28%
End-use fuel switching 9%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 31%
Renewables
© OECD/IEA 2012
Hydropower is a giant
Hydropower will continue to play a major role in power generation: hydropower generation more than doubles in the 2DS compared to today.
Historic 2DS
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hyd
ropo
wer
gen
erati
on [T
Wh]
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
Other non-OECD Asia
Other Latin America
China
Brazil
Africa and Middle East
OECD Europe
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Americas
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewable electricity generation
Renewables become a major part of the electricity system in 2050 in the 2DS in many countries, with the mix depending on local conditions.
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000
US
EU
South Africa
Russia
Mexico
India
China
Brazil
ASEAN
TWh/yr
Hydro Solar PV CSP Wind onshore Wind offshore Biomass and waste Geothermal Ocean
56%
93%
49%
50%
62%
59%
51%
69%
50%
2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Total primary energy demand
Biomass becomes the largest primary energy carrier by 2050 in the 2DS.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables
EJ
2009
6DS 2050
4DS 2050
2DS 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Liquid fuel demand and supply
Liquid fuel demand is stabilised at today’s level in 2050 in the 2DS, largely due to efficiency improvements and electrification in the
transport sector.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply
2009 2050, 4DS 2050, 2DS
EJ
Hydrogen
Biomethane
Biodiesel/Bio-ethanol
CTL/GTL
Oil
Power
Buildings, agriculture
Transport
Industry
© OECD/IEA 2012
In the 2DS, electricity becomes a near zero carbon fuel by 2050
Carbon intensity drops by 90% by 2050 in the 2DS .
0100200300400500600700800900
1 000
2009 2030 2050 2030 2050
4DS 2DS
g CO
2-eq
/ kW
h
World European Union United States China India ASEAN
© OECD/IEA 2012
Nuclear remains important – and Europe will need to start seriously investing at 2020
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
shar
e of
glo
bal e
lect
ricity
gen
erati
on
GW
Other OECD
European Union
United States
Other non-OECD
India
China
2DS
2DS-hiNuc
Capital cost inflation and project management hurdles will make mobilization of investment challenging
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
TWh
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
53%
27%
2%
1%
7%
28%
22%
23%
10%
9%
13%
7%
10%
4%
21%
28%
4%13% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
Gen
erati
on s
hare
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Solar
Hydro
Fossil w/o CCS
Fossil w CCS
2009 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Industry
Chapter 12
© OECD/IEA 2012
Industry must reduce its direct emissions by 20% if it is to contribute to the global target of halving energy-related emissions by 2050.
Efficiency alone will not be sufficient to offset strong growth in materials demand, new technologies are needed.
CCS represents the most important new technology option for reducing direct emissions in industry with the potential to save 2.0 to 2.5 GtCO2 in 2050.
Reaching the goal of the 2DS requires industry to spend an estimated USD 10.7 to USD 12.5 trillion between 2010 and 2050
Key findings
© OECD/IEA 2012
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000Other industries
Chemicals and petrochemicals
Aluminium
Pulp and paper
Iron and steel
Cement
2 DS
Industry must become more efficient
© OECD/IEA 2012
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.
GtC
O2
© OECD/IEA 2012
A substantial shift has been observed in industry
Industries in Asia accounted for 41% of industrial energy consumption in 2009, up from 11% in 1971.
Share of industrial energy consumption by region
© OECD/IEA 2012
Production growth opens up opportunities to improve efficiency
Growth in industrial production will be the strongest in non-OECD countries in the 2010 to 2050 period.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Decoupling of energy consumption and materials production is achieved in the 2DS
Energy consumption in 2050 will be 15% lower in the 2DS than in the 4DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
CO2 emissions need to peak by 2020 to achieve the 2DS emissions target
A significant reduction in CO2 emissions in industry is only possible if all sub-sectors contribute.
© OECD/IEA 2012
CCS is needed to reduce CO2 emissions
Numerous energy efficiency options are already taken into account in the 4DS; as a result, CCS account for about 60%
of the reductions between 4DS and 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Iron and steel Cement Chemicals and petrochemicals
Pulp and paper Aluminium
Application of current best available technologiesIncluding co-generation, efficient motor and steam systems, waste heat recovery and recycling
Fuel and feedstock switching
DRI, charcoal and waste plastics injection
Alternative fuels, clinker substitutes
Bio-based chemicals and plastics
Increased biomass
New technologies
Smelting reduction
Membranes Lignin removal Wetted drained cathodes
Electrification New olefin processes
Black liquor gasification
Inert anodes
Hydrogen Other catalytic processes
Biomass gasification
Carbothermic reduction
CCS CCS CCS CCS
Key options for industry
© OECD/IEA 2012
Government intervention is needed to ensure the new facilities and retrofit equipment are reaching BAT level.
Government and industry should increase R&D for novel processes and to advance understanding of system approaches.
Support is needed for demonstration of capture technologies. Government also need to accelerate development of CO2 transport and storage.
Clear, stable, long-term policies that put a price on CO2 are necessary if industry is to implement the technology transition needed.
Opportunities and recommendations
© OECD/IEA 2012
Transport
Chapter 13
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recent Trends
© OECD/IEA 2012
Transport oil addiction worsening
Energy needs are increasing, mainly from modes heavily oil-dependent.
© OECD/IEA 2012
World’s mobility habits are diverse
Most regions and countries increasingly relying on energy intensive transportation modes.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Non-OECD countries key players
Non-OECD car sales numbers is set to overtake OECD car sales before 2015; first time since OECD creation.
China already the biggest market worldwide.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Alternative technologies need dedicated policy package
Countries with major share of alternative technologies have specific policies in place promoting those technologies.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Looking ahead at 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Going back to 2000 CO2 levels in 2050
Pushing technology to its maximum potential is not enough to meet the 2DS target for transport
A three-pillar strategy is needed:Void/Shift/Improve
© OECD/IEA 2012
Low carbon technologies will be cost competitive
Energy costs to go down as utilisation rate are getting higherLow carbon electricity in 2DS the cheapest option on a per-
kilometre basis
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vehicle cost merging by 2050
EV Powertrain cost heavily depending on battery cost evolution Technology improvement and production learning leading to
cost competitiveness
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric vehicles need to come of age
© OECD/IEA 2012
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
50
100
150
200FCEV
Electricity
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050.
Pas
seng
er L
DV
sal
es (
mill
ion)
© OECD/IEA 2012
What to do in the next decade
© OECD/IEA 2012
Tackle Fuel Economy Now!
Traditional powertrains biggest saving potential2020 Target : 5.6 Lge/100km on average worldwide
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric Vehicles deployment
20 million BEVs and PHEVs on the road by 2020.
© OECD/IEA 2012
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Manufacturers production/sales
Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)
mill
ion
sa
les/
yea
r
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)
Translating targets into action
© OECD/IEA 2012
Government targets need to be backed by policy action.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Other 2020 targets to reach 2DS
Implement fuel economy standards through at least 2020 for LDVs and trucks in all major economies
Reach 5% of the fuel mix using biofuels, transitioning to advanced biofuels ASAP
Double the bus rapid transit global network Increase by 50% the high speed rail network Internalise the external cost of transport into fuel cost Develop international tools to incentivise international
shipping and aviation decarbonisation Pursue RD&D efforts to further develop fuel cell vehicles
© OECD/IEA 2012
A low carbon future may save money
More than USD 60 trillion saved over the next 4 decades by saving fuel, and also reducing vehicle and infrastructure
spendings.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Focus on vehicle infrastructure
© OECD/IEA 2012
Infrastructure needs booming in Non-OECD countries by 2050
Road extent would need to increase by more than 60% to cope with the traffic activity increase in 4DS.
Rail increases by 20% in the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Road space may become much more crowded in Non-OECD
Given car travel projections in 4DS, even with strong increases in road infrastructure, this may not be enough to cope with
traffic growthAverage vehicle density on roads in Non-OECD may overtake
OECD levels by 2030, become much worse by 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Buildings
Chapter 14
© OECD/IEA 2012
The buildings sector must reduce its total emissions by over 60% by 2050. Technologies that can help achieve such reductions are already available.
With more than half the current stock expected to still be standing in 2050, actions cannot be limited to tighter controls on new construction only.
A necessary first step is to improve energy performance of building shell, which has the additional benefit of allowing a downsizing of the heating and cooling equipment.
Additional investment needed to realise the 2DS is estimated to be USD 11.5 trillion.
Key findings
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electricity demand becomes the largest single source of energy
Despite a 65% increase in households and 72% increase in services floor area, energy consumption in 2050 is
only 11% higher than in 2009.
Buildings-sector energy consumption
© OECD/IEA 2012
The improvement in intensity will not be sufficient to decrease energy consumption
Despite important decreases in residential energy intensity in OECD countries, their intensity is still much
higher than in non-OECD countries.
Residential sub-sector energy consumption and intensity
© OECD/IEA 2012
Greater use of electrical end-uses in non-OECD will drive the intensity upward
The strong increase in floor area in non-OECD countries will drive the 88% increase in energy consumption in the
2DS.
Services sub-sector energy consumption and intensity
© OECD/IEA 2012
Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future
About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector.
22%
12%
15%
5%6%
10%
7%2%
3%
3%
15%
Total energy savings33 EJ Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
Cooling and ventilation
Lighting
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Cooling and ventilation
Lighting
Other
22%
12%
15%
5%6%
10%
7%2%
3%
3%
15%
Total energy savings33 EJ Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
Cooling and ventilation
Lighting
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Cooling and ventilation
Lighting
Other
Services
22%
12%
15%
5%6%
10%
7%2%
3%
3%
15%
Total energy savings33 EJ Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
Cooling and ventilation
Lighting
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
Cooling and ventilation
Lighting
Other
Residential
Total energy savings33 EJ
© OECD/IEA 2012
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050,0.0
500,000.0
1000,000.0
1500,000.0
2000,000.0
2500,000.0
Bill
ion
hous
ehol
ds Building sector challenges differ
OECD Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
The savings can only be achieved if the entire buildings system contributes
Improvements in the building shell and energy savings in electrical end-uses dominate total CO2 reductions.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Areas for policy action Overall savings potential Policy urgency Bulk of savings available
Energy efficiency of building shell measuresNew residential buildings Medium to large Urgent Immediately and medium- to long-termRetrofitted residential buildings Large Urgent Immediately and medium- to long-termNew sevice buildings Large Urgent Immediately and medium- to long-termRetrofitted service buildings Medium to large Urgent Immediately and medium- to long-term
Energy efficiency of lighting, appliances and equipmentLighting Medium Average ImmediatelyAppliances Large Average Short- to medium-termWater heating systems Large Urgent Short- to medium-termSpace heating systems Medium to large Urgent Short- to medium-termCooling/ventilation systems Medium to large Urgent Short- to medium-termCooking Small to medium Average/urgent Immediately
Fuel switchingWater heating systems Medium to large Urgent/average Short- to long-termSpace heating systems Medium to large Urgent/average Short- to long-termCooking Small Average/urgent Short to medium-term
Priority actions to deliver the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Ambitious long-term strategy should take a holistic approach that addresses indoor comfort, energy security, fuel poverty and climate challenges.
Government should develop and enforce stringent buildings codes that include minimum energy performance for new and refurbished buildings.
Minimum performance standards and regulations for appliances and equipment based on best available technologies should be develop.
Governments need to define and enforce compliance procedures to ensure effective implementation of standards and regulations.
Opportunities and recommendations
© OECD/IEA 2012
Roadmaps
Chapter 15
© OECD/IEA 2012
2075: can we reach zero emissionsChapter 16
© OECD/IEA 2012
What long-term CO2 reductions are needed?
ETP scenarios have been extended and compared with IPCC-based representative concentration pathways
ETP 2012 2DS is broadly consistent with a long term 2°C scenario (RCP3PD) that requires eliminating CO2 by 2075
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Extended and Alternative 2DS
The alternative 2DS gets close to, but does not quite achieve, zero CO2 in 2075.
- 5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2009 2030 2050 2075
Alternative 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Extended 2DS – energy use
Energy use continues to grow through 2075, but fossil fuel declines.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Extended 2DS – electricity
Power generation reaches 99% very low- or zero-carbon technologies in 2075.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Extended 2DS – industry
Most demand growth will come from non-OECD countries.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Extended 2DS – industry
Bio-energy and alternative sources of energy account for 40% of energy use in the Alternative 2DS in 2075.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Extended 2DS – industry
Breakthrough technologies are needed if industry is to reach near-zero levels of CO2 emissions by 2075.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Extended 2DS – transport
In Extended 2DS, global transport energy use remains fairly flat after 2050 as activity growth slows and efficiency
improvements continue.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Extended 2DS – buildings
Biomass and other renewables grow significantly after 2050.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Extended 2DS – buildings
The remaining direct CO2 emissions are primarily from natural gas use.
© OECD/IEA 2012
What additional technologies could help?
Many types of advanced and “breakthrough” technologies could help make it easier to reach zero CO2 emissions by 2075, particularly those that provide efficiency gains and aid deployment of near-zero Carbon fuels.
Some specific technologies identified here include: Electricity: advanced nuclear reactors and fuel systems, enhanced
geothermal systems, advanced ocean energy systems, more flexible electricity systems (e.g. with smart grid technologies)
Industry: electricity based steel making, new low-carbon cements, hydrogen in the chemicals sector
Transport: advanced light-weight materials, better energy (e.g. hydrogen, electricity) storage systems, new aircraft and ship designs, electrification of roadways via induction or tethered vehicles
Buildings: dynamic building envelopes, advanced cogeneration systems
© OECD/IEA 2012
Emissions must be eliminated by 2075
© OECD/IEA 2012
A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Regional Spotlights
Chapter 17
© OECD/IEA 2012
Brazil
Regional Spotlights
© OECD/IEA 2012
2050: Brazil’s CO2 emissions reduced by 60% in the 2 degree scenario
Transport sector decarbonisation as main source of CO2 reduction
© OECD/IEA 2012
Brazil electricity: Increased natural gas use leads to higher emissions in 4 degree scenario
In the 2 degree scenario, renewables - notably hydro, wind and solar - cover the increase in electricity generation
© OECD/IEA 2012
Hydropower is a giant
Hydropower will continue to play a major role in power generation: hydropower generation more than doubles in the
2DS compared to today.
Historic 2DS
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hyd
ropo
wer
gen
erati
on [T
Wh]
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
Other non-OECD Asia
Other Latin America
China
Brazil
Africa and Middle East
OECD Europe
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Americas
© OECD/IEA 2012
Brazilian industrial energy use rises in all scenarios
Implementation of the 2DS limits increase of CO2 emissions to 16% from today's level, mainly thanks to energy
efficiency measures
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key role for biofuels in Brazilian transport
Very high share of cane and cellulosic bioethanol, along with biomass-to-biodiesel fuels help to decarbonise transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
Brazil leads the way on FFVs
© OECD/IEA 2012
Nearly 90% of new Brazilian light duty vehicles in 2011 are ethanol-gasoline compatible
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy efficiency and fuel switching as key to mitigation in the Brazilian buildings sector
In the 4DS, building energy consumption in 2050 is almost two times higher than at present
© OECD/IEA 2012
A low-carbon future for Brazil
At present, Brazil has one of the highest shares of renewables in its energy mix worldwide
The maintenance of a clean energy matrix and further mitigation entails opportunities and challenges
Brazil can maintain a leadership position in the deployment of low-carbon technologies
Address difficulties that could potentially hamper growth in power generation from hydropower and wind
Further expand the production and use of sustainable biofuels in the transport sector
Bring experience and knowledge for international cooperation
© OECD/IEA 2012
Japan
Regional Spotlights
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables grow in Japan but uncertainty is high
Drivers: Uncertainties about nuclear
restart New feed-in tariffs Good match of solar PV for
shaving peak load
Challenges: Power system fragmentation Relatively high capital costs of
renewable energy Location of wind and
geothermal resources far from demand centres
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Japan forecast renewable generation
Hydropower Bioenergy Solar PV
Wind onshore Geothermal Wind offshore
TWh
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11
Japan power generation by share, 2011
Nuclear Combustible Fuels Hydro OtherIEA MRMR report
© OECD/IEA 2012
Power generation; Nuclear
© OECD/IEA 2012
Nuclear deployment by 2025 will be below levels required to achievethe 2DS objectives after the Fukushima accident although the vast
majority of countries remain committed to its use.
Installed capacity
© OECD/IEA 2012
Japan: End-use energy efficiency is critical
In the Japanese buildings sector, reduced electricity demand and power decarbonisation are key to achieve the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Japan: Alternative fuels are essential
90 % of sales in Japan in 2050 should be an electrically driven car with low carbon electricity and hydrogen
© OECD/IEA 2012
European Union
Regional Spotlights
© OECD/IEA 2012
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables will generate more than two thirds of EU electricity in 2050 in the 2DS
EU electricity generation in the 2DS
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGasCoal
53%
2%6%
28%
22%
19%
69%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2050
RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS
© OECD/IEA 2012
EU Electricity: renewables dominate growth and nuclear holds its position
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in
the mix.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in
the mix.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
TWh
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
53%
27%
2%
1%
7%
28%
22%
23%
10%
9%
13%
7%
10%
4%
21%
28%
4%13% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
Gen
erati
on s
hare
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Solar
Hydro
Fossil w/o CCS
Fossil w CCS
2009 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
EU: Wind and solar must grow quickly
An additional USD 1.2 trillion are needed in the EU power sector, but fuel savings amount to USD 2.7 trillion
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Coal with CCS
Gas with CCS
Biomass
Wind, onshore
Wind, offshore
PV
CSP
Nuclear
Hydro
GW per year
2020-50
2010-20
2006-10
© OECD/IEA 2012
Next decade 2010-2020: Accelerated deployment of onshore wind and solar PV Development of several large-scale commercial projects for
CCS (5 GW in 2020) and offshore wind (14 GW in 2020) Modernisation of ageing T&D infrastructure
Thereafter 2020-2050: Wider deployment of CCS, not only coal-fired, but also gas-
based (though overall gas generation declines after 2030) Accelerated growth in offshore wind More flexible electricity system needed to integrate increasing
share of variable renewables (reaching 60% of the installed capacity in 2050)
Nuclear can continue to play an important role, but financing and public acceptance are critical factors
Key technologies for the power sector
© OECD/IEA 2012
By 2050, Renewables need to dominate electricity in OECD Europe
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching almost a share of 30% in the mix.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
TWh
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
53%
27%
2%
1%
7%
28%
22%
23%
10%
9%
13%
7%
10%
4%
21%
28%
4%13% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
Gen
erati
on s
hare
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Solar
Hydro
Fossil w/o CCS
Fossil w CCS
2009 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
All flexibility sources will be needed
Dispatchablepower plants
Energy storage facilities
Interconnection with adjacent
markets
Biomass-firedpower plant
Pumped hydro facility
Scandinavian interconnections
Demand side Response
(via smart grid)
Industrial
residential
© OECD/IEA 2012
More renewable energy means network upgrades
Europe: Grid upgrades, 2010-50
Source: EWI Cologne, Optimal transmission grid scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Learning by doing achievements have exceeded expectations
€/MWh €/kW
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FIT [€/MWh] System cost [EUR/kW]
Solar PV system cost and feed-in tariff, large solar plants, Germany 2006-12
Some technologies are now ready to face greater competition
© OECD/IEA 2012
Europe must move towards a single market in renewable energy
Austria
Bulgaria
France
Greece
Latvia
Malta
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Cyprus
Germany
Hungary
Lithuania
Ireland
Luxembourg
Feed-in Tariffs
Feed-in Premium
Spain
Czech R.
Slovenia
Estonia
Italy
Belgium
UK
Denmark
The Netherlands
Poland
Romania
Sweden
Quota Obligations
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000RENEWABLESNUCLEARGASCOAL
GW
Renewable generation in Europe is growing rapidly, but supporting policies are yet to be harmonised, limiting
competition
Fig 1. EU New generation capacity by year of first generation Fig 2. RES support mechanism by EU member
Sources: Fig 1, Platts/European Wind Association; Fig 2: Council of European Energy Regulators. (FITs to be introduced into Germany in 2012)
Forecast
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables: mid term forecast for Spain
Drivers: Abundant renewable
resources Strong grid and
advanced integration of variable renewable sources
Challenges: Overcapacity of
electricity system Need to correct for
persistently high tariff deficit
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Spain power capacity vs peak load (GW)
Nuclear Hydropower
Combustible fuels Solar
Wind Peak load
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Spain forecast renewable generation
Hydropower Wind onshore Solar PV
Bioenergy CSP Wind offshore
TWh
© OECD/IEA 2012
UK electricity fleet is ageing
0 5 10 15 20 25
Less than 10 years
10-20 years
20-30 years
30-40 years
40-50 years
More than 50 years
Unknown age
UK age distribution of power plants in 2011 (GW)
Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear
What will replace the ageing coal fired electricity generation plants?
© OECD/IEA 2012
UK renewables outlook is positive
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
UK forecast renewable generation
Hydropower Bioenergy Wind onshore
Wind offshore Solar PV Ocean
TWh
Broad and strong political commitment and to low carbon electricity drives growth
© OECD/IEA 2012
ICE vehicles will dominate LDV sales through 2030
Need to focus policy on efficiency while preparing for decarbonisation. Standards and policy harmonization critical.
Cumulative EU27 LDV sales by technology type
© OECD/IEA 2012
ICE vehicles will dominate LDV sales through 2030
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
5
10
15
20
25
FCEV
Electricity
Plug-in hybrid
Hybrid
CNG/LPG
Gasoline/diesel
EU27 LDV sales in the 2DS
Need to focus policy on efficiency while preparing for decarbonisation. Standards and policy harmonization critical.
© OECD/IEA 2012
EU –wide consistency?
Need to focus policy on efficiency while preparing for decarbonisation. Standards and policy harmonization critical.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Next decade 2010-2020: Increase energy efficiency: energy recovery & process
integration Site level Learn, track, benchmark & improve efficiency Across Industry and beyond Heat mapping [temperature level]
Heat decarbonisation Low temp. applications Higher penetration of renewables Replacement of fossil-fuels by biomass/waste fuels Increase industrial CHP: specially chemicals/petrochemicals and
pulp & paper Cement: Clinker substitutes, Alternative fuels Chemicals: Olefin production from catalytic cracking
Key technologies for EU industry
© OECD/IEA 2012
Thereafter 2020-2050: Wider deployment of CCS Iron & Steel:
Top-gas recycling blast furnace Use of highly reactive materials Smelting reduction
Chemicals: Methanol to olefin production route
Pulp & Paper: Black liquor gasification Advanced water removal technologies
Aluminium: Wetted drained cathodes Inert cathodes Carbothermic and/or kaolinite reduction
Key technologies for EU industry
© OECD/IEA 2012
India
Regional Spotlights
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key technologies to decarbonise Indian power generation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Emissions Emissions Reductions Resulting 2DS emissions
Emissions Reductions Resulting 2DS emissions
2009 2030 2050
GtC
O2
6DS
4DS
2DS
CCS
Nuclear
Solar
Wind
Other renewables
Electricity savings
Fuel switching and efficiency
Emissions reductions
Emissions
© OECD/IEA 2012
0
2
4
6
8
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
6DS emissions
Agriculture, other 1%
Other transformation 3%
Power 43%
Industry 20%
Transport 22%
Buildings 10%
The power sector, transport and industry would provide the largest reduction of emissions in the 2DS.
India: Sectoral Contributions to achieve the 2DS from the 4DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
India: Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
4DS
Coal Coal w CCS Natural gas Natural gas w CCS
Oil Biomass and waste Nuclear Hydro
Wind Solar Other renewables
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mexico
Regional Spotlights
© OECD/IEA 2012
CO2 emissions in Mexico halved by 2050
The power sector provides almost 40% of the cumulative CO2 reductions compared to the 4DS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtC
O2
6DS
Agriculture, other 1%
Other transformation 7%
Power 37%
Industry 17%
Transport 23%
Buildings 16%
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mexico: Extensive deployment of clean energy technologies
Electricity savings, solar and wind power as key mitigation options in Mexico
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2030 2050
Mt C
O2
Additional emissions in 6DSFuel switching and efficiency improvemnetsElectricity savings
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Nuclear
CCS
2DS emissions
© OECD/IEA 2012
Greening the Mexican vehicle fleet
Most of the greening of the Mexican vehicle fleet is achieved by drop-in biofuels
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mexico: End-use energy efficiency is critical
In the buildings sector, more than half of the reductions will come from decarbonisation of the power sector.
© OECD/IEA 2012
A low-carbon future for Mexico
Low-carbon development has already been made a priority
First successes have been achieved, more ambitious actions will be necessary to meet the 2DS
New Climate Law represents an excellent basis for action – need to maintain momentum!
Mexico is well placed for a “green” development strategy and ambitious climate goals
© OECD/IEA 2012
Russia
Regional Spotlights
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fossil-fuel based electricity generation drops by almost half in Russia by 2030
Increased electricity generation from nuclear and renewables is the key for Russia to get on track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Russia’s CO2 emissions need to drop dramatically
The power and industry sectors account for over half of the reductions relative to the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas plays an increasingly key role in the industry sector
Energy efficiency measures through best available technologies brings 50% of the CO2 reductions.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Growth in buildings energy consumption can be limited
Effective implementation of energy efficiency policies is critical and supports large-scale refurbishment of ageing buildings
to stringent code levels
© OECD/IEA 2012
Russian car ownership more than doubles by 2050
Hybrid, plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles will be key to increasing vehicle efficiency in Russia
© OECD/IEA 2012
Russia’s room to manoeuvre
ETP 2012 projects a very different path for Russia
High average age of infrastructure brings opportunity
Creation of Russian Technology Platforms
Presidential focus on innovation and modernisation
Overall investment environment
Regulatory framework needs to be completed
IEA stands ready to work with Russia
© OECD/IEA 2012
United States
Regional Spotlights
© OECD/IEA 2012
CO2 reductions in the US
The power and transport sectors are key to achieving the 2DS.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
6DS emissions
Agriculture, other 1%
Other transformation 6%
Power 32%
Industry 11%
Transport 31%
Buildings 20%
© OECD/IEA 2012
Rocky road ahead for US renewables
0
2
4
6
8
10
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
GW US wind capacity growth
Forecast based on expiration of PTC at end-2012
Expiration of federal PTC
Policy uncertainty, competition from natural gas and cost of capital slow renewables growth
© OECD/IEA 2012
USA: large renewable and nuclear deployment needed for 2DS
Natural gas is dominant in 4DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Rocky road ahead for US renewables
0
2
4
6
8
10
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
GW US wind capacity growth
Forecast based on expiration of PTC at end-2012
Expiration of federal PTC
Policy uncertainty, competition from natural gas and cost of capital slow renewables growth
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel economy makes a difference
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel economy improvements in conventional and hybrid vehicles alone can save 11 mbbl/day.
2010 2020 2030 2040 20502
4
6
8
10
PLDV tested fuel economy - WORLD
(new car average)
[Lg
e/1
00
km
] 6DS
Better FE
2DS
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
PLDV fuel consumption - WORLD
[bill
ion
Lge/
year
]
equivalent to 11mbbl/day reduction
6DS
Better FE
2DS(I/A/S)
© OECD/IEA 2012
…but modal shift is also needed
Fuel economy alone is not enough to meet 2DS targets
Passenger mode share in the US
© OECD/IEA 2012
Non-conventional gas is delivering large, low cost emission reductions
Gas and coal fired power generation in the US, actual and IEA Medium Term Outlook
© OECD/IEA 2012
Cheap gas has not yet hurt renewables – and it needs to stay that way
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 annualised0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
non-hydro renewable generation (left)
average gas price for power generation (right)
Twh usd/mbtu
© OECD/IEA 2012
US renewable policies lack coordination
15% by 2010
25% by 2025
20% by 2015
20% by 201033% by 2020
20% by 2025
15% by 2025
20% by 2010
20% by 2020
15% by 2015
10% by 2015
10% by 2015
5.9 GW (~5.5%) by 2015
15% by 2021
1 GW (~2%) 1999
25% by 2025
25% by 2025
10% by 2015
10% by 2015
8% by 2020
12.5% by 2021
12% by 2022
20% by 2020
20% by 2019
22.5% by 2021
23% by 2020
16% by 2019
15% by 2020
40% by 2017
23.8% by 2015
10% by 2012
24% by 2013
12.5% by 2024
Mandates cover around half power generated in the USALack of Federal coordination hampers development of renewable energy
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
US state-based renewable energy mandates, 2010
© OECD/IEA 2012
First in 30 years, to be followed by a dozen others…
Plant Vogtle nuclear expansion approved
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s on Thursday approved Southern Co.’s plan to build two reactors at Plant Vogtle, south of Augusta.
The Vogtle project will be built with a new reactor design, the AP1000 from Westinghouse, approved in December. An NRC report said the AP1000 design has “many of the design features and attributes necessary to address” new safety recommendations since the disaster.
© OECD/IEA 2012
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