south sudan – sudan: state of emergency
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both in troubled Guinea Bissau and inthe wider region. ECOWAS ParliamentSpeaker Ike Ekweremadu, called thecoup an aront on democratic gover-nance.He said the coup, which comeson the heels of a similar attempt inMali (p. 19183) was capable of derail-ing democratic gains in the West Afri-can sub-region.
He said, What is going on in Guinea-Bissau is highly condemnable, unjusti-able, and a slight on the collective willof the peoples of West Africa to liveand prosper under democratic gover-nance, constitutionalism, and rule oflaw. (This Day website, Lagos 15 4)
Other commentators looked at the con-nections between the army, narco-tracand impunity. Former UN representa-tive and Guinea Bissau expert DavidStephen, writing in African Arguments(23 4) commented that Prime Minis-ter Gomes had failed, notably, to endyears of mutual suspicion between him
and the army, or to reach out to theBalantes, the largest single ethnicgroup, strong in the army and who seeKumba Yala as their leader. He hadalso let rumours about the role of theAngolan military mission (MISSANG)get out of hand.
Stephen argued that the non-accep-tance of the election results by KumbaYala and his colleagues, and the accu-sations against Angola, provided asmokescreen for an interventiondesigned to perpetuate a situation ofconstitutional confusion in which themilitary were largely unaccountable,and in which criminality, especiallyregarding narco-trac, could proceedunhindered. Another key aim of thecoup was to ensure that the assassina-tions and killings of recent years three of them of former Chiefs of Staof the Armed Forces remain unpun-ished and uninvestigated. (AfricanArguments 23 4)
Africa Condential said the coupappears to be the work of the sameocers who were involved in previousseizures of power and drug smuggling.It said no Guineans doubted that Indjaiis behind the coup, despite his eortsto stay in the background. The ocialline of the coup leaders is that theywere defending the army against immi-nent attack by Missang, backed by theAU, Ghana and Brazil. The Commandclaims to have in its possession a secretdocument signed by Pereira and Gomesoutlining such a plot. Many Guineansbelieve this accusation, which reducespublic sympathy for Gomes, eventhough most are sick of the militaryscontinual seizures of power.
The chief objective of the army is toresist army reform and scotch anyeorts to curtail its involvement in thedrugs trade. (Africa Condential 27 4)Presidential election rst round p. 19195
SOUTH SUDAN SUDAN
State of Emergency
Fighting continues in border areasand raises fears of a wider war.
As Sudan and South Sudan sink deeperinto full-scale conict and hostile rheto-ric, Sudanese President Omar Hassanal-Bashir on April 29th declared a stateof emergency in some cities of threestates neighbouring South Sudan namely South Kordofan, Sennar andWhite Nile.
The presidential decree came afterheavy clashes between the Sudaneseand south Sudanese armies over Heglig,reports Sudan Tribune (29 4).The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) arealso battling the combatants of therebel Sudan Peoples Liberation Move-ment - Army-North (SPLM A-N) andits allies from Darfur rebel groupsmainly in South Kordofan and someparts of the Blue Nile state.
The state of emergency is alreadyimposed in other states borderingSouth Sudan including Blue Nile. Dueto the rebellion in Darfur, a state of
emergency has been in place in the wes-tern half of the boundaries since 2003.
The measure suspends the constitutionand imposes a trade embargo againstthe South.
Nationalist feeling has intensied inSudan after South Sudan occupied thenorths main Heglig oil eld, part ofSouth Kordofan state, on April 10thfor 10 days, a move which coincidedwith Sudanese air strikes against theSouth in Unity state. It was the mostserious ghting since the Souths inde-pendence and raised fears of a widerwar. Elsewhere in South Kordofan,SPLM-N rebels besieged the town ofTalodi into early April and, after a lull,ghting in the area intensied later inthe month. Both sides said there hadbeen renewed ghting around the stra-tegic town of Talodi, southeast ofUmm Durain.
The seizure of Heglig ratchets upJubas confrontation with KhartoumsNational Congress Party (NCP) regime,which also faces growing pressure fromits opponents in the North, accordingto Africa Condential (13 4). JubasInformation Minister and Spokesman,Barnaba Marial Benjamin Bil, insistedthat taking Heglig was in self-defenceafter Khartoums forces had launched aground attack from the town on April9th. Jubas more assertive strategyshows its support for its former com-rades in the SPLM A-N and theirvision for change ending NCP rule.
The African Union (AU) and UnitedNations (UN) Security Council rapidlyrequested the Sudan Peoples Libera-tion Army (SPLA) to withdraw fromHeglig.
A surging number of hungry refugeesare eeing ghting in Sudan wheresome are reduced to foraging in thewild, the United Nations (UN) said onApril 30th, amid new allegations ofSudanese air strikes, AFP reported(30 4). In South Kordofan, whereinsurgents deny being backed by SouthSudan, a Sudanese air raid killed amother and two children, the SPLM-Nsaid.
Air raids also continued over the week-end against South Sudanese frontlinepositions, the South Sudanese armysaid, despite an AU order the previousweek that the two nations cease borderhostilities within 48 hours. Sudandenied bombing in South Kordofan orSouth Sudan.
Sudan declared on April 20th that itstroops had forced the Southern soldiersout of Heglig, but the South said itwithdrew of its own accord in line withinternational calls.
During the Heglig occupation, Bashirthreatened to overthrow South Sudansinsect government.
Sudanese cross-border air raids thatcontinued after the end of the Hegligoccupation drew swift internationalcondemnation. But Khartoum says theSouths continued support for rebelsinside Sudan undermines the northsstability. South Sudan also accuses thenorth of backing rebels on its territory,an allegation the north denies.
19222 Africa Research Bulletin
A B C
Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2012.
There has been ghting in Wedakona,Upper Nile state, with Khartoum sup-ported militias, Southern armyspokesman Philip Aguer told AFP,adding that the combat continued earlyon the 30th. He said that over theweekend Sudanese warplanes droppedfour bombs near a forward position ofthe Souths army in Unity states Pa-nakuach, about 20km from Heglig.
The Independent, London reported(19 4) AU mediator Thabo Mbeki asurging the UN Security Council to actto stop the ghting, warning that thesides are locked in a logic of warwith hardliners increasingly in control.
Sudan set four conditions on the 20thfor normal relations with SouthSudan. It demanded that the Southerngovernment in Juba approve and rec-ognise existing agreements and memo-randa on security, including a Februarynon-aggression pact signed by theirrespective intelligence chiefs. The For-eign ministry also demanded that theSouth recognise the borders whichexisted at Sudans independence fromBritain and Egypt in 1956. It furthercalled for an end to all aggression onSudanese territory, a removal of South-ern troops allegedly in Sudan, and anend to support for ethnic rebels ghtingKhartoum in South Kordofan and BlueNile states. Juba has denied such sup-port. Lastly, the ministry asked Juba tostop supporting and hosting rebelgroups from the Darfur region whorefused to sign a peace deal with thegovernment.
Sudan on the 28th expressed condencein the AU but rejected Security Councilinvolvement in eorts to end theclashes. The Security Council hasstarted talks on a resolution that couldallow sanctions against Sudan andSouth Sudan if they do not end theirghting. Russia, a veto-wielding mem-ber of the Security Council, signalledits agreement on the 30th with the US-backed resolution, after Foreign Minis-ter Sergei Lavrov met his Sudanesecounterpart Ali Karti in Moscow.
All or Nothing
Khartoum is ghting on three fronts: adetermined Southern army, condentarmed oppositionists and a hostile pop-ulation, says Africa Condential (27 4)When President Bashir told the SPLM,Either we end up in Juba and takeeverything or you end up in Khartoumand take everything, he was acknowl-edging that the stakes could hardly behigher. What he didnt say, in his April19th speech at the National CongressParty headquarters, was that the South-ern armed forces have proved a matchfor those of the ruling NCP. The April
10th takeover of Heglig by the SPLA and withdrawal under internationalpressure constituted a signicantshow of power.
On paper, the SAF are far more power-ful than the SPLA in materiel, train-ing and, most obviously, airpower. Yetseveral Western military sources thinkthe military balance fairly even on theground. Tactically, the SPLA shouldhave stayed in Heglig, said one. Mili-tarily, it certainly could have done.NCP protestations seemed aimed atdisguising the extent of the SAF defeat.SPLA spokesperson Col. Aguer saidthe SPLA had killed some 500 SAFmen, in Heglig (Southerners call it PanThou in Dinka). Other sources sayaround 3,500 troops died, of about6,000.
Enter the Sudan Revolutionary Front(SRF), which, Africa Condential saysit understands, rst drove the SAFout of Heglig the week before theSPLA took it. These were mainlyDarfur ghters from the Justice andEquality Movement (JEM), with somefrom the Liberation and JusticeMovement (LJM) who had refused tojoin Khartoum in 2010 with LJMhead El Tigani Seisi Mohamed Ateem.The SRF pursued the SAF to Khora-sana, where ghting continued.
A key reason why both SPLA-N andSPLA have been able to defeat theSAF so readily is morale. The SAFnever won the war in the South andare