severe weather events in southern brazil and their similarity with events in the united states bruno...
TRANSCRIPT
Severe weather events in Southern Brazil and their similarity with events in
the United States
Bruno Ribeiro, Lance Bosart
National Institute for Space Research - INPE, Brazil
SUNY - University at Albany, NY
16th NROW - November 2015
Purpose:
Purpose:
Compare severe weather events in Southern Brazil to that in the U.S. and show some forecast issues.
Purpose:
Compare severe weather events in Southern Brazil to that in the U.S. and show some forecast issues.
Motivation:
- Little research on severe weather in South America;
Purpose:
Compare severe weather events in Southern Brazil to that in the U.S. and show some forecast issues.
Motivation:
- Little research on severe weather in South America;
- Most conceptual models of severe weather for the U.S. are applicable in Southern Brazil;
Purpose:
Compare severe weather events in Southern Brazil to that in the U.S. and show some forecast issues.
Motivation:
- Little research on severe weather in South America;
- Most conceptual models of severe weather for the U.S. are applicable in Southern Brazil;
- Look for when these models may NOT be applicable in Southern Brazil.
Introduction
1) Similarities between North and South America;
Introduction
1) Similarities between North and South America;
2) Two cases:- A Squall Line in Sao Paulo state on 08 September 2015;
Introduction
1) Similarities between North and South America;
2) Two cases:- A Squall Line in Sao Paulo state on 08 September 2015;
- A EF2-EF3 tornado case in Santa Catarina State on 20 April 2015.
South America Topography
South America Topography
’Classic’ severe weather environment
’Classic’ severe weather environment
Elevated Mixed Layers and Supercells
Elevated Mixed Layers and Supercells
Elevated Mixed Layers and Supercells
Bow-echoes
Squall Line Case
Squall Line Case
Affected most of the Sao Paulo state, including Sao Paulo metropolitan region:
Squall Line Case
Affected most of the Sao Paulo state, including Sao Paulo metropolitan region:
- Hundreds of downed trees and flooded streets;
Squall Line Case
Affected most of the Sao Paulo state, including Sao Paulo metropolitan region:
- Hundreds of downed trees and flooded streets;
- Several 5 cm ( 2”) hail reports;
Squall Line Case
Affected most of the Sao Paulo state, including Sao Paulo metropolitan region:
- Hundreds of downed trees and flooded streets;
- Several 5 cm ( 2”) hail reports;
- Wind gusts peaked 120 km/h (65 kt) in the entrance of Paraiba Valley.
Squall Line Case - Synoptic Environment
Squall Line Case - Synoptic Environment
Squall Line Case - Synoptic Environment
Squall Line Case - Synoptic EnvironmentWeak quasi-geostrophic forcing
Squall Line Case - Synoptic Environment
Squall Line Case - Synoptic Environment
Squall Line Case - Synoptic EnvironmentDivergent upper-level flow at jet-streak equatorial entrance
Squall Line Case - Synoptic Environment
Squall Line Case - Synoptic Environment
Squall Line Case - Synoptic Environment
Squall Line Case - Synoptic Environment
Squall Line Case - Synoptic Environment
Low-level cyclonic vorticity associated with the front
Squall Line Case - soundings
Squall Line Case - soundings
Squall Line Case - satellite imagery
Squall Line Case - satellite imagery
Squall Line Case - satellite imagery
Squall Line Case - satellite imagery
Squall Line Case - satellite imagery
Squall Line Case - satellite imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Squall Line Case - radar imagery
Tornado Case
Tornado Case
Estimated EF2-EF3 tornado affected the city of Xanxere on 20 April 2015:
Tornado Case
Estimated EF2-EF3 tornado affected the city of Xanxere on 20 April 2015:
- 2 people dead and hundreds injured;
Tornado Case
Estimated EF2-EF3 tornado affected the city of Xanxere on 20 April 2015:
- 2 people dead and hundreds injured;
- Severe damage to about 50% of the city.
Tornado Case
Tornado Case
Tornado Case
Tornado Case
Tornado Case - Synoptic Environment
Tornado Case - Synoptic Environment
Tornado Case - Synoptic Environment
Tornado Case - Synoptic EnvironmentWeak quasi-geostrophic forcing:
Tornado Case - Synoptic Environment
Tornado Case - Synoptic Environment
Tornado Case - Synoptic Environment
Tornado Case - Synoptic Environment
Tornado Case - Synoptic Environment
Tornado Case - Synoptic Environment
Tornado Case - Forecast issues
Tornado Case - Forecast issues
Tornado Case - Forecast issues
Tornado Case - Forecast issues
Conclusions
Conclusions
Large-scale severe weather environments are similar:
Conclusions
Large-scale severe weather environments are similar:
1- Strong low-level jet bringing warm and moist air from the tropics;
Conclusions
Large-scale severe weather environments are similar:
1- Strong low-level jet bringing warm and moist air from the tropics;
2- Severe weather along a low-level baroclinic region.
Conclusions
Large-scale severe weather environments are similar:
1- Strong low-level jet bringing warm and moist air from the tropics;
2- Severe weather along a low-level baroclinic region.
3- Upper-level forcing by the Subtropical/Polar Jet.
Conclusions
Large-scale severe weather environments are similar:
1- Strong low-level jet bringing warm and moist air from the tropics;
2- Severe weather along a low-level baroclinic region.
3- Upper-level forcing by the Subtropical/Polar Jet.
4- South America also have ‘cold season’ and ‘warm season’ patterns;
Conclusions - Issues and future research
Conclusions - Issues and future research
- Role of drylines (?) and local topography in triggering severe convection;
Conclusions - Issues and future research
- Role of drylines (?) and local topography in triggering severe convection;
- Elevated mixed layers
Conclusions - Issues and future research
- Role of drylines (?) and local topography in triggering severe convection;
- Elevated mixed layers
Observational framework must be improved:
Conclusions - Issues and future research
- Role of drylines (?) and local topography in triggering severe convection;
- Elevated mixed layers
Observational framework must be improved:
- Radars, soundings and surface observations;
Conclusions - Issues and future research
- Role of drylines (?) and local topography in triggering severe convection;
- Elevated mixed layers
Observational framework must be improved:
- Radars, soundings and surface observations;
- Severe weather reports network.
Thank you