sept. 24 forum research poll

8/11/2019 Sept. 24 Forum Research poll

1/15

180BloorStreetW.,#1400

Toronto,ON M5S2V6

T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

forumresearch.com1

MEDIA INQUIRIES:Lorne Bozinoff, President

[email protected]

416.960.9603

TORONTO

September 22nd, 2014

FORIMMEDIATERELEASE

Toryvotersmostmotivated

RobshouldwithdrawfromWard2 onehalf

TORONTOSEPTEMBER22nd,2014 Inarandomsamplingofpublicopiniontakenby

theForumPollamong1164Torontovoters,thosewhosupportJohnToryarethe

mostcommittedtovotingintheupcomingmunicipalelection(91%absolutely

certain),comparedtoChowsupporters(85%)andDougFordvoters(81%).

OnehalfmorelikelytovotenowDougisin

OnehalfofTorontovoterssaytheyaremorelikelytovoteinthiselectionbecause

DougFordhasjoinedtherace(48%),whileveryfewsaytheyarelessmotivatedto

vote(3%).OnehalfsayDoug'scandidacymakesnodifferencetotheirintentionto

vote(48%).Doug'ssupportersaremostlikelytosaytheyaremorecommittedto

votingnow(67%),followedbyTorysupporters(47%)thenChowvoters(27%).

MajoritywantRobFordtoresign,onehalftowithdrawfromWard2race

JustmorethanonehalfthinkRobFordshouldresignasmayor(54%),butjustfewer

thinkheshouldwithdrawfromtheWard2councilorsrace(50%).Fourinten

disagreewiththeformer(39%)andthelatter(43%).

Votersequally

likely

to

prefer

both

Doug

and

Rob

for

mayor

OnequarterssaytheywouldpreferRobFordasmayor(26%)andasimilar

proportionoptforhisbrotherDoug(24%).Aboutonetenthsayeitheronewoulddo

(12%),while4in10wantnothingtodowitheitherbrother(38%).DougFord

supportersaremuchmorelikelytopreferRob(46%)thanDoug(34%)formayor.

TorypreferredtoChowandFordina1on1;ChowbeatsFord

Inthreescenarioswherejusttwocandidatescompete,JohnToryhastheadvantage,

winningbotha1on1againstDougFord(57%to35%)andagainstChow(49%to

35%).Intheremaining1on1race,OliviaChowdefeatsDougFord(50%to41%).

Onequarterwouldpayupto$1adaytobuildtransit/infrastructure

ClosetoonequarterofTorontovoterswillspendupto$1adayormoreextrato

seethevarioustransitandinfrastructurepromisesmadebycandidatesformayor

built(23%),andmorethanathirdwouldpayupto50centsormore(36%).On

average,includingtheonethirdwhosaytheywillpaynothing(32%),theaverage

amountTorontovoterssaytheywouldspendis17centsaday.

HIGHLIGHTS:

ThosewhosupportJohnTory

arethemostcommittedto

votingintheupcoming

municipalelection

(91%

absolutelycertain).

OnehalfofTorontovoters

saytheyaremorelikelyto

voteinthiselectionbecause

DougFordhasjoinedthe

race(48%),whileveryfew

saytheyarelessmotivated

tovote(3%).

Justmorethanonehalfthink

RobFordshouldresignas

mayor(54%),

but

just

fewer

thinkheshouldwithdraw

fromtheWard2councilors

race(50%).

Onequarterssaytheywould

preferRobFordasmayor

(26%)andasimilar

proportionoptforhis

brotherDoug(24%).

Inthreescenarioswherejust

twocandidatescompete,

JohnToryhastheadvantage,

winningbotha1on1

againstDougFord(57%to

35%)andagainstChow(49%

to35%).


2/15


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Accessibletransit,repairingsewer/waterinfrastructurekeynontransit

issues

Whenvotersarepresentedwithalistofissuesnotincludingbuildingtransit,theone

thatrisestothetopofconcernismakingtransitmoreaccessible(26%),followedby

repairingsewer/watersystemsnow(19%)anddealingmoreeffectivelywiththe

mentallyillonourstreets(10%).Thereislessconcernaboutcontrollingthepolice

budget(8%),termlimitsatcityhall(7%),tollinghighways(6%),movingmarathons

andparadesoffmajorthoroughfares(5%)orensuringpaybackfromthePanAm

Games(2%).AmongDougFord'ssupporters,accessibletransit(15%),repairing

sewersand

water

systems

(18%),

controlling

the

police

budget

(15%)

and

dealing

withthementallyill(12%)areimportant.Torysupportersareconcernedwith

accessibletransit(30%)andrepairinginfrastructure(22%)most,whileChowvoters

areconcernedwithaccessibletransit(36%),thementallyill(18%)andaging

infrastructure(15%).AmongtheverysmallsampleofAriGoldkindsupporters,aging

infrastructurerepairsarekey.

"DougmaynotbequiteaswelllikedbyFordNationashismorecuddlybrother,but

hisHailMaryentryintotheracehascertainlygalvanizeditscitizens,andthey're

eagertovotefortheirnewchampion.Thechallengewillbeforthemtoovercome

thestrongmotivationthatisalsodrivingJohnTory'ssupporters,"saidForum

ResearchPresident,Dr.LorneBozinoff.

LorneBozinoff,Ph.D.isthepresidentandfounderofForumResearch.Hecanbereachedatlbozinoff@forumresearch.comorat(416)9609603.

HIGHLIGHTS:

Whenvotersarepresented

withalistofissuesnot

includingbuildingtransit,the

onethat

rises

to

the

top

of

concernismakingtransit

moreaccessible(26%),

followedbyrepairing

sewer/watersystemsnow

(19%)anddealingmore

effectivelywiththementally

illonourstreets(10%).

"Dougmaynotbequiteas

welllikedbyFordNationas

hismorecuddlybrother,but

hisHail

Mary

entry

into

the

racehascertainlygalvanized

itscitizens,andthey'reeager

tovotefortheirnew

champion.Thechallengewill

beforthemtoovercomethe

strongmotivationthatisalso

drivingJohnTory's

supporters,"saidForum

ResearchPresident,Dr.Lorne

Bozinoff.


3/15


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T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

forumresearch.com3


[email protected]

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Methodology

TheForumPollwasconductedbyForumResearchwiththeresultsbasedonan

interactivevoiceresponsetelephonesurveyof1164randomlyselectedvotersin

Toronto,Ontario.ThepollwasconductedonSeptember22nd,2014.

Resultsbasedonthetotalsampleareconsideredaccurate+/ 3%,19timesoutof

20.Subsampleresultswillbelessaccurate.Marginsoferrorforsubsample(such

asage,gender)resultsareavailableatwww.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp

Whereappropriate,thedatahasbeenstatisticallyweightedbyage,region,and

othervariablestoensurethatthesamplereflectstheactualpopulationaccording

tothelatestCensusdata.

Thisresearchisnotnecessarilypredictiveoffutureoutcomes,butrather,

capturesopinionatonepointintime.ForumResearchconductedthispollasa

publicserviceandtodemonstrateoursurveyresearchcapabilities.Forumhouses

itspollresultsintheDataLibraryoftheDepartmentofPoliticalScienceatthe

UniversityofToronto.

WithofficesacrossCanadaandaroundtheworld,100%CanadianownedForum

Researchisoneofthecountrysleadingsurveyresearchfirms.ThisForum

PollandotherpollsmaybefoundatForum'spollarchive

atwww.forumresearch.com/polls.asp


4/15


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ShouldFordResign Trending

% Sample ShouldResign ShouldNotResign Dontknow

Sep.22nd,2014 1164 54 39 7

August2526th,2014 931 50 45 5

August56th,2014 1268 58 39 3

July21st,2014 1063 59 37 5

July2nd,2014 1182 62 34 4

June19th,2014 890 58 37 5

June6th,2014 944 63 33 4

May21st,2014 923 63 32 5

May1st,2014 888 63 31 6

Dec.9th,2013 898 60 35 4

Nov.20th,2013 1049 62 36 2

Nov.6th,2013 1157 61 35 4

Nov.4th,2013 1393 59 38 3

Oct.31st,2013 1032 60 36 4


5/15


Toronto,ON M5S2V6

T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

forumresearch.com5


[email protected]

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TORONTO


VoteLikelihood

HowlikelyareyoutovoteinthemunicipalelectioninOctober?

[AllRespondents]

Age/Gender

% Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Sample 1164 76 113 221 302 452 521 643

Absolutelycertain 86 86 87 83 86 85 90 82

Region

% TotalTorontoorEast

York

North

York

Etobicokeor

YorkScarborough

Sample 1164 434 245 255 230

Absolutelycertain 86 93 78 87 83

HouseholdIncome

% Total


6/15


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T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

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EffectonVoteChoice:DougasaReplacementforRobFord

Areyoumorelikelytovoteinthiselection,lesslikelytovoteinthiselection

orneithermorenorlesslikelytovotenowthatDougFordhasreplacedhis

brotherRobascandidateformayor?

[AllRespondents]

Age/Gender


Sample 1164 76 113 221 302 452 521 643

Morelikely

48

47

39

52

53

58

54

44

Lesslikely 3 3 3 2 4 3 3 3

Neithermorenorlesslikely 48 51 57 44 43 37 43 52

Don'tknow 1 0 2 2 1 2 0 2

Region


York

North

York

Etobicokeor

YorkScarborough

Sample 1164 434 245 255 230

Morelikely 48 41 53 40 63

Lesslikely 3 3 2 1 5

Neithermorenorless

likely

48 55 44 57 30

Don'tknow 1 0 1 1 2

HouseholdIncome

% Total


7/15


Toronto,ON M5S2V6

T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

forumresearch.com7


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RobFordResignation

DoyouthinkMayorRobFordshouldresignornot?

[AllRespondents]

Age/Gender


Sample 1164 76 113 221 302 452 521 643

Shouldresign 54 56 52 51 53 61 54 55

Shouldnot

resign

39

37

40

42

41

32

39

38

Don'tknow 7 7 8 7 6 7 7 7

Region


York

North

York

Etobicokeor

YorkScarborough

Sample 1164 434 245 255 230

Shouldresign 54 65 61 49 38

Shouldnot

resign39 32 33 43 50

Don'tknow 7 4 6 8 12

HouseholdIncome

% Total


8/15


Toronto,ON M5S2V6

T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

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TORONTO


RobFordWithdrawalfromWard2Race

DoyouthinkMayorRobFordshouldwithdrawfromtheraceforWard2

councilorornot?

[AllRespondents]

Age/Gender


Sample 1164 76 113 221 302 452 521 643

Shouldwithdraw

50

48

50

50

50

57

52

49

Shouldnotwithdraw 43 45 44 43 43 38 44 42

Don'tknow 6 7 5 6 6 6 4 8

Region


York

North

York

Etobicokeor

YorkScarborough

Sample 1164 434 245 255 230

Shouldwithdraw 50 60 53 43 42

Shouldnot

withdraw43 35 42 48 49

Don'tknow 6 5 4 9 8

HouseholdIncome

% Total


9/15


Toronto,ON M5S2V6

T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

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FordMayoralPreference:Dougvs.Rob

Whowouldyouratherseeasmayor,RobFordorDougFord?

[AllRespondents]

Age/Gender


Sample 1164 76 113 221 302 452 521 643

RobFord 26 28 25 27 29 21 32 21

DougFord

24

27

23

25

20

19

21

26

Eitherone 12 11 16 8 8 15 10 14

Neitherone 38 31 37 40 42 44 37 38

Don'tknow 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 1

Region

% Total TorontoorEastYork NorthYork EtobicokeorYork Scarborough

Sample 1164 434 245 255 230

RobFord 26 22 18 33 35

DougFord 24 18 27 24 26

Eitherone 12 12 10 11 14

Neitherone 38 47 43 31 25

Don'tknow

1

1

2

0

0

HouseholdIncome

% Total


10/15


Toronto,ON M5S2V6

T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

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[email protected]

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DougFord/Tory

WhowillyouvoteforifthecandidatesareJohnToryandDougFord?

[AllRespondents]

Age/Gender


Sample 1164 76 113 221 302 452 521 643

JohnTory 57 57 54 54 56 66 54 60

DougFord

35

36

36

36

37

28

37

33

Someothercandidate 5 6 6 6 4 4 7 4

Don'tknow 2 1 4 4 2 1 2 3

Region


York

North

York

Etobicokeor

YorkScarborough

Sample 1164 434 245 255 230

JohnTory 57 69 63 55 36

DougFord 35 21 30 39 57

Someother

candidate5 7 3 5 5

Don't

know

2

3

3

1

2

HouseholdIncome

% Total


11/15


Toronto,ON M5S2V6

T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

forumresearch.com11


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TORONTO


Tory/Chow

WhowillyouvoteforifthecandidatesareJohnToryandOliviaChow?

[AllRespondents]

Age/Gender


Sample 1164 76 113 221 302 452 521 643

JohnTory 49 39 45 52 53 66 48 50

OliviaChow

35

45

36

30

31

22

36

33


Don'tknow 6 4 8 7 5 4 5 6

Region


York

North

York

Etobicokeor

YorkScarborough

Sample 1164 434 245 255 230

JohnTory 49 52 49 43 51

OliviaChow 35 40 34 34 28

Someother

candidate11 6 13 14 13

Don't

know

6

3

4

10

7

HouseholdIncome

% Total


12/15


Toronto,ON M5S2V6

T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

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DougFord/Chow

WhowillyouvoteforifthecandidatesareDougFordandOliviaChow?

[AllRespondents]

Age/Gender


Sample 1164 76 113 221 302 452 521 643

DougFord 41 44 37 41 48 38 45 39

OliviaChow

50

53

52

49

43

46

48

51


Don'tknow 4 2 6 5 4 6 3 5

Region


York

North

York

Etobicokeor

YorkScarborough

Sample 1164 434 245 255 230

DougFord 41 33 36 42 59

OliviaChow 50 58 53 50 35

Someother

candidate5 5 6 3 4

Don't

know

4

4

5

5

3

HouseholdIncome

% Total


13/15


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T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

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PaymentperdaytoseeInfrastructurePromisesBuilt

Howmuchwouldyoupayperdaytoseeallofthemayoralcandidates

transitandinfrastructurepromisesbuilt?

[AllRespondents]

Age/Gender


Sample 1164 76 113 221 302 452 521 643

Nothing

32

25

33

37

36

32

32

31

Upto25centsaday 15 17 19 14 10 13 15 16

Upto50centsaday 7 5 5 10 10 10 7 7

Upto75centsaday 6 9 8 6 3 3 6 7

Uptoadollaraday 11 12 10 9 13 10 12 10

Uptotwodollarsaday 4 8 2 2 4 2 4 4

Morethantwodollarsaday 8 13 8 4 5 4 14 2

Don'tknow 17 11 15 19 20 24 10 23

Mean 0.91 1.09 0.87 0.70 0.88 0.74 1.16 0.62

Region

% Total TorontoorEastYork

North

YorkEtobicoke

or

YorkScarborough

Sample 1164 434 245 255 230

Nothing 32 23 37 29 40

Upto25centsaday 15 17 14 17 12



Uptoadollaraday 11 17 4 11 10

Uptotwodollarsa

day4 4 7 4 1

Morethantwodollars

aday8 9 9 5 7

Don'tknow 17 13 20 16 18

Mean 0.91 0.91 1.06 0.77 0.91


14/15


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MostImportantIssue

Whichofthefollowingissuesismostimportanttoyouinthiselection?

[AllRespondents]

Age/Gender

% Total18

34

35

44

45

54

55

6465+ Male Female

Sample 1164 76 113 221 302 452 521 643

Ensuring

payback

from

the

Pan

Am

Games 2 3 1 3 2 2 1 3

Tollinghighwaystocontrol

congestion6 6 11 4 6 4 8 5

ControllingthePolicebudget 8 7 11 9 8 7 12 5

Movingmarathonsandparadesoff

majorcitythoroughfares5 8 1 5 5 6 5 5

Imposingtermlimitsatcityhall 7 6 5 7 9 8 6 7

Actingnowtorepairtheaging

sewerandwatersystem19 19 18 16 24 22 16 22

Dealingmoreeffectivelywith

mentallyillpeopleonourstreets10 13 10 9 8 7 10 10

Makingtransitmoreaccessible 26 30 22 28 21 27 26 27

Region

% TotalTorontoor

EastYork

North

York

Etobicokeor

YorkScarborough

Sample 1164 434 245 255 230

EnsuringpaybackfromthePan

AmGames2 1 1 2 5

Tollinghighwaystocontrol

congestion6 7 9 6 3

ControllingthePolicebudget 8 7 5 6 16

Movingmarathonsandparades

offmajorcitythoroughfares5 5 5 6 5

Imposingtermlimitsatcityhall 7 5 7 7 8

Actingnow

to

repair

the

aging

sewerandwatersystem19 17 18 23 19

Dealingmoreeffectivelywith

mentallyillpeopleonour

streets

10 11 8 15 7

Makingtransitmoreaccessible 26 30 29 21 24


15/15


Toronto,ON M5S2V6

T 416.960.9600

F 416.960.9602

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TORONTO


Formoreinformation:

LorneBozinoff,Ph.D.

President

ForumResearchInc.

Tel: (416)9609603

Fax: (416)9609602

Email:[email protected]

sept. 24 forum research poll

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