Voting IntentionTracking Poll

Sept 2010

Methodology and Weighting

RED C interviewed a random sample of 1004 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 20th & 22nd Sept 2010.

A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.

Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile.

Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two.

Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote.

SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 26th Sept 2010 - Opinion Poll

 Fianna Fail support stable despite a negative reaction to Cowen

At the start of the new Dáil term this Sunday Business Post/ RED C tracking poll provides parties with a clearer understanding of where they stand after a long summer break. In particular what impact, if any, the events of recent weeks have had on core party support when compared directly to our regular tracking data, with the last poll conducted in June.

This polls main finding is that none of the parties appear to have come out of their pre Dáil get together events, with any particularly positive gains among the public. A fact that seems to suggest that events,such as the furore over Brian Cowen’s Morning Ireland speech, and also perhaps PJ Sheehans activities in the Dáil, have overshadowed any attempts to concentrate on policy.

Given the fact that we are led to believe that a leadership coup may very well have happened last weekend, Fianna Fail backbenchers may be surprised to see that support for Fianna Fail remains stable in this poll. The party secures 24% of the vote – which is the same as was seen at the end of the last Dáil term in June, and is around where we have seen them polling for the past six months. In fact, RED C tracking polls have rarely seen support for Fianna Fail dip below this level, with the lowest ever seen in May last year when support fell to 21%.

This steady support for the party suggests that few of those still loyal to Fianna Fail have changed their view as a result of the Brian Cowen interview last week. Our own anecdotal evidence in fact suggests that there are many everyday voters who feel he has been perhaps too strongly attached over this issue, whatever they think of him as a leader..

That isn’t to say that voters have changed their view on Brian Cowen, with only 19% claiming that they have confidence in him as Taoiseach. Worse still is the fact that Fianna Fail’s own likely voters are not happy with his performance, with only just over half (52%) of them suggesting that they have confidence in him.

So would Fianna Fail potentially fare better without him? Well over a quarter (29%) of voters do state that they would be more likely to vote for Fianna Fail if he were replaced. Most importantly though, for backbenchers worried about their seats, is the finding that this is the case for almost a third (31%) of the crucial undecided voters. There is also some evidence that voters lost to Fine Gael and Labour may be more likely to return to Fianna Fail should their be a change of leader, with 21% of each of these parties supporters suggesting this to be the case.

It is however interesting to note that when the same question was asked about replacing Enda Kenny as Fine Gael leader in February, 43% of voters claimed they would be more likely to vote Fine Gael if the leader was changed. It appears then that a change at the helm of Fianna Fail may help secure a 1% or 2% in the final vote, but it is unlikely to change the tide of opinion against the party.

While the media focus has been on Fianna Fail’s woes in recent weeks, there was an assumption that Fine Gael and Labour could only improve their position. Today's poll suggests otherwise, with Fine Gael securing 31% of the vote – down 2% since June – when they were recovering from their own leadership heave.

The adage that all media coverage is good media coverage may have come into play here – with Fine Gael’s own think-in a distant memory, but still it will perhaps be disappointing for the party to have fallen back to just 4% above the vote they achieved at the last election.

Labour also see a decline in 1st preference vote share, securing 23% of the first preference vote in today’s poll, down 4% on the figures recorded in June. However it should be recalled that the June figures were the highest ever recorded by RED C for Labour, and that there was always likely to be some fall off after this poll.

This means that both opposition parties have lost support and Fianna Fail has remained stable, which is quite remarkable when you consider the expectations before the poll.

This is partly also because the smaller parties have also regained lost ground since June. Sinn Fein for example secures 10% of the first preference vote in the poll, a gain of 2% since June. The party has been consistently shifting between around 7% and 10% support over the past year.

Likewise the Greens also gain some share, securing 3% in this poll, up 1% since the start of the summer. This still leaves the party someway behind where they had been consistently polling for most of the year, suggesting they have some work to do to gain an upward momentum before an election kicks in.

Independent candidates also regain some share of the vote in today's poll, securing 10% of the first preference vote, and after a year of steady decline, this will be welcomed by candidates looking at a possible election in the not too distant future.

 

The decline in support for the opposition parties may also have something to do with the fact that the coalition has still not yet persuaded voters that it is able and competent to successfully manage the current economy.

The close link between economic competence and the strength of voter support has been shown before. As such the fact hat only 30% of voters currently agree that they have confidence in Fine Gael and Labour to manage the public finances, must be a significant concern for those parties.  

When studied in more detail, this finding should be a particular concern for Labour, with 30% of those claiming they will vote for the Labour party at the next election, also suggesting that they don’t have confidence in the potential coalition to manage the public finances. If the party wants to be sure that those claiming they will vote for Labour, actually do so when the election arrives, this lack of confidence in the parties ability to manage the public finances will have to be addressed.

It will also be of interest to both the government and the opposition parties that undecided voters appear to be even less sure of the Labour and Fine Gael financial credentials, with 42% of those still undecided claiming they definitely don’t have confidence in them to manage the public finances.

The somewhat more fluid nature of current voter support , coupled with concerns about economic competence of all the parties, suggest that there may yet be several acts to be played out in the political landscape before the curtain falls at the next general election.

31%

24% 23%

10%

3%

9%

Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

24%

35%

17%

10%

5%

9%

23%

33%

24%

6% 6%

8%

24%

30%

22%

10%

5%

9%

24%

33%

27%

8%

2%

6%

24%

31%

23%

10%

3%

9%10%

6%

42%

27%

7%

5% Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/

Other

General election 2007

March 2010

April 2010

May 2010

June 2010

Sept 2010

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Dec’05

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

31%

24%23%

Independent

Mar’06

Jun’06

Oct’06

Jan’07

Apr’07

May’07

GE2007

Oct’07

Jan’08

Apr’08

Jun’08

10%

Oct’08

Jan’09

3%

Apr’09

GE2002

Sep’09

Nov’09

2006 2007 2008 2009

Mar’10

2010

Sept’10

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

31%

24%23%

Independent

GE2007

Sep’07

Oct’07

Nov’07

Jan’08

Feb’08

Mar’08

Apr’08

May’08

Jun’08

Sep’08

10%

Oct’08

Nov’08

Jan’09

3%

Feb’09

Mar’09

Apr’09

May’09

May’09

Sep’09

Sep’09

Nov’09

Oct’09

Jan’10

2008 2009

Feb’10

Mar’10

2010

Apr’10

9%

May’10

Jun’10

Sep’10

CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT

Core figures

27th June 2010

Excluding undecided

Excluding undecided

& Rounded

2007 Election Results

% % % %

Fine Gael 27 31.49 31 27

Fianna Fáil 20 24.20 24 42

Labour 19 22.69 23 10

Sinn Féin 8 9.76 10 7

Green Party 2 2.88 3 5

Independents/Others

8 8.94 9 6

Undecided 16

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

Confidence in Brian Cowen as Taoiseach (Base: All adults 18+)

Agree

191920

1416172023

28182018211919

5299

16

% AGREE

TOTAL

MaleFemale

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Fianna FáilFine Gael

LabourSinn Fein

Gender

PartySupport at last GE

Age

Disagree

19%

64%

Don’t know 17%

ABC1

C2DE

DublinROL

MunsterConn/Ulster

Social Class

Region

5430

68 6957 48 41

2953

21 21 29 23 31

Proportion who agree or disagree that they would be more likely to vote Fianna Fail if the party changed leader

Agree

Disagree

Don’t know

TOTAL%

FG%

FF%

Labour%

22 17 16 11 2013 28

Party Preference

%

Ind. /Other

%

Undecided

%

43% for Enda Kenny when asked about

him in Feb ‘09

Confidence in Fine Gael/Labour to manage the public finances out of the current downturn(Base: All adults 18+)

12% 18% 19%15%

16% 11%

19%15%

13%

26% 23% 29%

28% 28% 28%

Agree strongly

Agree slightly

Disagree slightly

Disagree strongly

Don’t know

Oct 2009 Feb 2010 Sept 2010

30%34%27%

59%31%

10%

Proportion who agree or disagree that they want a general election now(Base: All adults 18+)

Don’tknow

Disagree

Agree

59

59

59

62

64

60

55

60

52

35

71

68

72

% Agree

TOTAL

Male

Female

18-24

25-34

35-44

45+54

55-64

65+

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Fein

Gender

PartyPreference

Age