Full poll results sept 2014

Download Full poll results sept 2014

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<ul><li> 1. 1) Aloha, were conducting a short survey about the upcoming election in Hawaii this November--including the race for Governor that includes David Ige, Mufi Hannemann, and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated]. In the November election, will you most likely vote early, vote on Election Day, are you not sure when or where you will vote, or are you not likely to vote? 2) If you vote in the race for Governor between Democrat David Ige, Independent candidate Mufi Hannemann, Liberatarian Jeff Davis, and Republican Duke Ainoa [candidate name order rotated], what would you do? 3) If the election for Governor were only between David Ige and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated], with no other candidates, what would you do? 4) There will also be an election for U.S. Senate between Brian Schatz and Cam Cavasso [candidate name order rotated]. If you vote in that race, what would you do? 5a) First Congressional District Only: There will also be an election for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District between Mark Takai and Charles Djou [candidate name order rotated]. If you vote in that race, what would you do? 5b) Second Congressional District Only: There will also be an election for U.S. Congress in the Second Congressional District between Tulsi Gabbard and Kawika Crowley [candidate name order rotated]. If you vote in that race, what would you do? </li> <li> 2. 6) Please think back to the Primary elections that took place in August. Did you vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or neither one? 7) If Voted in Democratic Primary Only: In the Democratic primary for Governor, did you vote for David Ige, or Neil Abercrombie [candidate name order rotated]? 8) There will also be a number of proposed amendments to Hawaiis Constitution on the November ballot One of them would amend Hawaiis constitution to allow the state to use public funds to help pay for privately run early education programs for children in the years before they start Kindergarten. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment? 9) Another proposed amendment would require the states Judicial Selection Commission to publicly disclose its list of nominees who are being considered as new judges in Hawaii. Currently, the Commission is not required to disclose its list of nominees, but is allowed to do so if it chooses to. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment? 10) Another proposed amendment would raise the mandatory retirement age for state justices and judges from 70 years of age, to 80. This would allow older state judges to remain in their positions for a longer time. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment? 11) In general, when you are considering how you will vote on a constitutional amendment ballot question, what is the top source of information you use to help you make up your mind? Is it news reports about the ballot measures? Is it information provided by groups that are either supporting or opposing the measures? Is it conversations you have with friends or family? Or is it simply reading the questions as they appear on the ballot? Or, do you generally not vote on constitutional amendment ballot questions? </li> <li> 3. Demographic Questions 1) Gender 2) Age 3) Ethnicity 4) Political ideology 5) Party I.D. 6) Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling, parent, or child, served in the U.S. Military? 7) Are you, or a member of your immediate family a member of a labor union? 8) Annual household income </li> <li> 4. September 11 - 14, 2014 VOTER SCREEN Aloha, were conducting a short survey about the upcoming election in Hawaii this November-- including the race for Governor that includes David Ige, Mufi Hannemann, and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated]. In the November election, will you most likely vote early, vote on Election Day, are you not sure when or where you will vote, or are you not likely to vote? Vote early 48% Vote on Election Day 34% Not sure when or where Voting 9% Not Voting 9% Not Surveyed Further Resulting Sample of Likely Voters = 1,055 Margin of Error +/- 3.0% 75% Landlines, 25% Cellphones If you vote in the race for Governor between Democrat David Ige, Independent candidate Mufi Hannemann, Liberatarian Jeff Davis, and Republican Duke Ainoa [candidate name order rotated], what would you do? Ige 43% Aiona 39% Hannemann 8% Davis 2% Unsure 8% Likely Voters </li> <li> 5. Hannemann and Davis supporters and Unsure: Sample = 191 If the election for Governor were only between David Ige and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated], with no other candidates, what would you do? Ige 29% Aiona 33% Neither 11% Unsure 27% If you vote in the race for Senate between Brian Schatz and Cam Cavasso [candidate name order rotated], what would you do? Schatz 62% Cavasso 25% Undecided 13% </li> <li> 6. First Congressional District Likely Voters = 551 Margin of Error +/- 4.2% There will also be an election for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District between Mark Takai and Charles Djou [candidate name order rotated]. If you vote in that race, what would you do? Takai 42% Djou 46% Unsure 12% Second Congressional District Likely Voters = 504 Margin of Error +/- 4.4% There will also be an election for U.S. Congress in the Second Congressional District between Tulsi Gabbard and Kawika Crowley [candidate name order rotated]. If you vote in that race, what would you do? Gabbard 70% Crowley 17% Unsure 13% </li> <li> 7. There will be a number of proposed amendments to Hawaiis Constitution on the November ballot One of them would amend Hawaiis constitution to allow the state to use public funds to help pay for privately run early education programs for children in the years before they start Kindergarten. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment? Vote For 40% Vote Against 45% Won't Vote on Question 3% Unsure 12% Another proposed amendment would require the states Judicial Selection Commission to publicly disclose its list of nominees who are being considered as new judges in Hawaii. Currently, the Commission is not required to disclose its list of nominees, but is allowed to do so if it chooses to. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment? Vote For 70% Vote Against 13% Won't Vote on Question 5% Unsure 11% </li> <li> 8. Another proposed amendment would raise the mandatory retirement age for state justices and judges from 70 years of age, to 80. This would allow older state judges to remain in their positions for a longer timWould you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment? Vote For 25% Vote Against 61% Won't Vote on Question 3% Unsure 10% In general, when you are considering how you will vote on a constitutional amendment ballot question, what is the top source of information you use to help you make up your mind? Is it news reports about the ballot measures? Is it information provided by groups that are either supporting or opposing the measures? Is it conversations you have with friends or family? Or is it simply reading the questions as they appear on the ballot? Or, do you generally not vote on constitutional amendment ballot questions? News Reports 46% Political Information 15% Friends/Family 10% Directly from the Ballot Question 20% Usually Don't Vote on Amendments 2% Unsure 8% </li> <li> 9. Now, please think back to the Primary elections that took place in August. Did you vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or neither one? Democratic 72% GOP 15% Neither 13% Democratic Primary Voters: Sample = 761 In the primary for Governor, did you vote for David Ige or Neil Abercrombe [candidate name order rotated] Ige 64% Abercrombie 32% Unsure 4% </li> <li> 10. FULL SAMPLE DEMOGRAPHICS Male 47% Female 53% Under 50 29% 50 and older 72% Caucasian 38% Japanese 27% Filipino 8% Hawaiian 9% Chinese 7% Hispanic 1% Other/Mixed 10% Liberal/progressive 25% Moderate 33% Conservative 26% Unsure 15% Democrat 55% Republican 23% Independent 19% Unsure 3% </li> <li> 11. Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling, parent, or child, served in the U.S. Military? Yes 63% No 35% Refused 2% Are you, or a member of your immediate family a member of a labor union? Yes 31% No 64% Refused 5% Annual Household Income Less than $50,000 26% $50,000 - $100,000 30% More than $100,000 21% Refused 23% Oahu_1 52% Oahu_2 17% Hawaii 15% Maui 11% Kauai 6% </li> <li> 12. SAMPLE DEMOGRAPHICS -- FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Male 48% Female 52% Under 50 30% 50 and older 70% Caucasian 31% Japanese 33% Filipino 8% Hawaiian 7% Chinese 10% Hispanic 1% Other/Mixed 10% Liberal/progressive 25% Moderate 37% Conservative 24% Unsure 14% Democrat 54% Republican 22% Independent 22% Unsure 3% </li> <li> 13. Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling, parent, or child, served in the U.S. Military? Yes 63% No 36% Refused 1% Are you, or a member of your immediate family a member of a labor union? Yes 31% No 64% Refused 5% Annual Household Income Less than $50,000 22% $50,000 - $100,000 29% More than $100,000 24% Refused 25% </li> <li> 14. SAMPLE DEMOGRAPHICS -- SECOND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Male 45% Female 55% Under 50 27% 50 and older 73% Caucasian 46% Japanese 21% Filipino 7% Hawaiian 11% Chinese 3% Hispanic 1% Other/Mixed 10% Liberal/progressive 25% Moderate 30% Conservative 29% Unsure 16% Democrat 57% Republican 24% Independent 16% Unsure 4% </li> <li> 15. Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling, parent, or child, served in the U.S. Military? Yes 63% No 35% Refused 2% Are you, or a member of your immediate family a member of a labor union? Yes 31% No 64% Refused 5% Annual Household Income Less than $50,000 31% $50,000 - $100,000 32% More than $100,000 18% Refused 20% Oahu_2 35% Hawaii 31% Maui 23% Kauai 12% </li> <li> 16. CROSSTABS Governor * Gender Crosstabulation Male Female Ige 38% 48% Aiona 43% 35% Hannemann 8% 9% Davis 2% 1% Unsure 9% 7% Governor * Age Crosstabulation Under 50 50 and older Ige 37% 46% Aiona 42% 38% Hannemann 13% 6% Davis 1% 1% Unsure 7% 8% Governor * Ethnicity Crosstabulation Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed Ige 41% 60% 27% 31% 29% 22% 34% Aiona 43% 24% 50% 47% 64% 44% 40% Hannemann 8% 7% 7% 14% 5% 11% 12% Davis 1% 2% 3% 1% 11% 2% Unsure 8% 7% 14% 7% 3% 11% 12% </li> <li> 17. Governor * Ideology Crosstabulation Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure Ige 70% 48% 11% 43% Aiona 11% 34% 78% 33% Hannemann 13% 8% 5% 7% Davis 1% 2% 0% 2% Unsure 6% 8% 6% 14% Governor * Party_ID Crosstabulation Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Ige 66% 6% 23% 33% Aiona 15% 87% 58% 22% Hannemann 11% 3% 6% 4% Davis 1% 1% 3% 4% Unsure 7% 3% 10% 37% Governor * Military_Family Crosstabulation Yes No Refused Ige 41% 47% 38% Aiona 43% 35% 38% Hannemann 7% 10% 6% Davis 1% 1% 6% Unsure 8% 7% 13% </li> <li> 18. Governor * Union_Family Crosstabulation Yes No Refused Ige 48% 41% 43% Aiona 38% 42% 29% Hannemann 7% 8% 6% Davis 1% 1% 4% Unsure 7% 7% 18% Governor * Household_Income Crosstabulation Less than $50,000 $50,000 - $100,000 More than $100,000 Refused Ige 45% 45% 45% 38% Aiona 35% 43% 41% 38% Hannemann 10% 4% 8% 9% Davis 2% 1% 1% 2% Unsure 7% 6% 4% 13% Governor * County_CD Crosstabulation Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai Ige 41% 36% 44% 60% 45% Aiona 41% 46% 35% 26% 41% Hannemann 8% 11% 11% 4% 5% Davis 2% 1% 1% 2% Unsure 8% 6% 9% 10% 7% </li> <li> 19. Governor * Governor_Primary Crosstabulation Ige Abercrombie Unsure Ige 58% 54% 14% Aiona 30% 23% 31% Hannemann 7% 13% 25% Davis 1% 2% 3% Unsure 5% 9% 28% Governor * Voter_Screen Crosstabulation Vote Early Election Day Not Sure When Voting Ige 46% 39% 17% Aiona 39% 39% 30% Hannemann 7% 11% 17% Davis 1% 1% 13% Unsure 7% 10% 22% Two_Candidate_Lean * Governor Crosstabulation Hannemann Davis Unsure Ige 39%...</li></ul>