CIVIL BEAT POLLQUESTIONNAIREOctober 16 - 19, 2014

6) There is also an election for U.S. Senate between Brian Schatz and Cam Cavasso [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting?

1) Aloha, we’re conducting a short survey about the upcoming election in Hawaii--including the race for Governor that includes David Ige, Mufi Hannemann, and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated]. Early voting has already started, and voting will end on November 4th. First, have you already voted early, by mail or at a walk-in voting center, have you note voted yet but are planning to vote early, are you planning to vote on Election Day, are you not sure when you will vote, or are you not likely to vote?

2) Who are you supporting in the race for Governor between Democrat David Ige, Independent candidate Mufi Hannemann, Liberatarian Jeff Davis, and Republican Duke Ainoa [candidate name order rotated]?

3) About how recently did you decide to support him? Within the past two weeks? Within the past month? Or have you supported him for more than a month?

4) If didn't select Ige or Aiona in Q2: If the election for Governor were only between David Ige and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated], with no other candidates, what would you do?

5) No matter which candidate you support for Governor, who do you thik is most likely to win? Your best guess is fine.

10) If Voted in Democratic Primary Only: In the Democratic primary for Governor, did you vote for David Ige, or Neil Abercrombie [candidate name order rotated]?

7CD1a) First Congressional District Only: There is also an election for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District between Mark Takai and Charles Djou [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting?

7CD1b) First Congressional District Only: About how recently did you decide to support him? Within the past two weeks? Within the past month? Or have you supported him for more than a month?

7CD2) Second Congressional District Only: There isl also an election for U.S. Congress in the Second Congressional District between Tulsi Gabbard and Kawika Crowley [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting?

8) There will also be a number of proposed amendments to Hawaii’s Constitution on the November ballot… One of them would amend Hawaii’s constitution to allow the state to use public funds to help pay for privately run early education programs for children in the years before they start Kindergarten. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment?

9) Please think back to the Primary elections that took place in August. Did you vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or neither one?

Demographic Questions

1) Gender

2) Age

3) Ethnicity

4) Political ideology

5) Party I.D.

7) Are you, or a member of your immediate family a member of a labor union?

8) Annual household income

9) County/Congressional District [on file]

6) Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling, parent, or child, served in the U.S. Military?

STATEWIDE  RESULTS1,221  Likely  General  Election  VotersMargin  of  Error:  +/-­‐  2.8%October  16  -­‐19,  201470%  Landlines,  30%  Cell  Phones

GovernorIge 40%Aiona 34%Hannemann 11%Davis 6%Undecided 8%

No  matter  which  candidate  you  support  for  Governor,  who  do  you  think  is  most  likely  to  win?  Gov_PredictIge 48%Aiona 27%Hannemann 8%Davis 6%No  Prediction 12%

Subsample  =  311Gov_Two  CandidatesIge 27%Aiona 26%Niether 22%Unsure 25%

Who  are  you  supporting  in  the  race  for  Governor  between  Democrat  David  Ige,  Independent  candidate  Mufi  Hannemann,  Liberatarian  Jeff  Davis,  and  Republican  Duke  Ainoa  [candidate  name  order  rotated]?

If  didn't  select  Ige  or  Aiona:  If  the  election  for  Governor  were  only  between  David  Ige  and  Duke  Aiona  [candidate  name  order  rotated],  with  no  other  candidates,  what  would  you  do?

Senate OverallSchatz 55%Cavasso 29%Unsure 16%

School_FundingFor 34%Against 50%Abstain 7%Unsure 9%

There  is  also  an  election  for  U.S.  Senate  between  Brian  Schatz  and  Cam  Cavasso  [candidate  name  order  rotated].  Which  candidate  are  you  supporting?

There  will  also  be  a  number  of  proposed  amendments  to  Hawaii’s  Constitution  on  the  November  ballot…  One  of  them  would  amend  Hawaii’s  constitution  to  allow  the  state  to  use  public  funds  to  help  pay  for  privately  run  early  education  programs  for  children  in  the  years  before  they  start  Kindergarten.  Would  you  most  likely  vote  for  this  amendment,  vote  against  this  amendment,  or  not  vote  either  way  on  this  amendment?

604  Likely  General  Election  Voters  in  the  First  Cogressional  DistrictMargin  of  Error:  +/-­‐  4.0%October  16  -­‐19,  2014

CD1Takai 45%Djou 45%Unsure 9%

517  Likely  General  Election  Voters  in  the  Second  Cogressional  DistrictMargin  of  Error:  +/-­‐  4.3%October  16  -­‐19,  2014

CD2Gabbard 69%Crowley 19%Unsure 12%

First  Congressional  District  Only:  There  is  also  an  election  for  U.S.  Congress  in  the  First  Congressional  District  between  Mark  Takai  and  Charles  Djou  [candidate  name  order  rotated].  Which  candidate  are  you  supporting?

Second  Congressional  District  Only:  There  isl  also  an  election  for  U.S.  Congress  in  the  Second  Congressional  District  between  Tulsi  Gabbard  and  Kawika  Crowley  [candidate  name  order  rotated].  Which  candidate  are  you  supporting?

STATEWIDE  DEMOGRAPHICSGenderMale 47%Female 52%Refused 1%

AgeUnder  50 26%50  or  older 74%

EthnicityCaucasian 37%Japanese 29%Filipino 8%Hawaiian 10%Chinese 6%Hispanic 1%Other/Mixed 9%Refused 0%

County_CDOahu_1 52%Oahu_2 17%Hawaii 15%Maui 11%Kauai 5%

Political  OrientationLiberal 27%Moderate 31%Conservative 28%Unsure 14%

Party  IDDemocrat 49%Republican 25%Independent 21%Unsure 5%

Military  FamilyYes 58%No 39%Refused 3%

Union  FamilyYes 35%No 61%Refused 4%

Household  IncomeLess  than  $50,000 28%$50,000  -­‐  $100,000 33%More  than  $100,000 19%Refused 19%

CD1  DEMOGRAPHICSGenderMale 48%Female 52%

AgeUnder  50 31%50  or  older 69%

EthnicityCaucasian 27%Japanese 36%Filipino 11%Hawaiian 7%Chinese 8%Hispanic 2%Other/Mixed 10%

PoliticsLiberal 26%Moderate 31%Conservative 28%Unsure 14%

Party_IDDemocrat 45%Republican 27%Independent 23%Unsure 5%

Military  FamilyYes 58%No 39%Refused 3%

Union  FamilyYes 35%No 61%Refused 4%

Household  IncomeLess  than  $50,000 27%$50,000  -­‐  $100,000 30%$100,000+ 23%Refused 20%

CD2  DEMOGRAPHICSGenderMale 47%Female 53%

AgeUnder  50 21%50  or  older 79%

EthnicityCaucasian 47%Japanese 21%Filipino 5%Hawaiian 13%Chinese 4%Hispanic 1%Other/Mixed 9%

County_CDOahu_2 35%Hawaii 31%Maui 23%Kauai 11%

PoliticsLiberal 29%Moderate 31%Conservative 27%Unsure 13%

Party_IDDemocrat 54%Republican 24%Independent 18%Unsure 4%

Military  FamilyYes 59%No 39%Refused 2%

Union  FamilyYes 35%No 61%Refused 4%

Household  IncomeLess  than  $50,000 30%$50,000  -­‐  $100,000 37%$100,000+ 15%Refused 18%

GOVERNOR  CROSSTABSGovernor Male FemaleIge 41% 40%Aiona 33% 35%Hannemann 12% 11%Davis 6% 6%Undecided 7% 8%

Governor Under  50 50  or  olderIge 37% 44%Aiona 40% 34%Hannemann 10% 11%Davis 5% 4%Undecided 7% 7%

Governor Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedIge 47% 49% 33% 28% 34% 36% 28%Aiona 35% 24% 42% 48% 42% 43% 35%Hannemann 9% 14% 11% 14% 7% 14% 12%Davis 5% 8% 3% 3% 1% 3% 6%Undecided 5% 5% 11% 8% 16% 5% 19%

Governor Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiIge 38% 39% 49% 40% 46%Aiona 37% 35% 31% 29% 24%Hannemann 11% 12% 10% 15% 9%Davis 5% 6% 8% 4% 13%Undecided 9% 8% 3% 12% 8%

Governor Liberal Moderate Conservative UnsureIge 69% 48% 16% 26%Aiona 8% 30% 65% 30%Hannemann 12% 11% 11% 13%Davis 6% 4% 5% 6%Undecided 4% 7% 3% 24%

Governor Democrat Republican Independent UnsureIge 66% 15% 24% 19%Aiona 13% 68% 47% 16%Hannemann 13% 9% 14% 2%Davis 3% 3% 10% 16%Undecided 6% 5% 6% 48%

Governor Military  Family Not  a  Military  FamilyIge 43% 42%Aiona 35% 32%Hannemann 11% 12%Davis 4% 6%Undecided 7% 7%

Governor Union  Family Not  a  Union  FamilyIge 48% 41%Aiona 27% 37%Hannemann 13% 11%Davis 7% 4%Undecided 4% 8%

Governor Less  than  $50,000 $50,000  -­‐  $100,000 $100,000+Ige 45% 46% 46%Aiona 31% 35% 29%Hannemann 12% 11% 13%Davis 8% 3% 4%Undecided 4% 4% 7%

Subsample  =  311Governor_TwoCandidates Hannemann Davis UndecidedIge 39% 26% 11%Aiona 32% 36% 9%Neither 23% 29% 15%Unsure 6% 8% 65%

Subsample  =  814Governor Ige Abercrombie UnsureIge 53% 62% 16%Aiona 26% 13% 39%Hannemann 10% 15% 8%Davis 6% 3% 10%Undecided 5% 6% 26%

Gov_Decide Ige Aiona Hannemann DavisTwo  weeks 22% 17% 36% 30%One  month 21% 15% 30% 23%Month  plus 56% 66% 31% 32%Unsure 1% 2% 3% 15%

Gov_Predict Ige Aiona Hannemann Davis UndecidedIge 83% 16% 32% 58% 26%Aiona 4% 64% 15% 8% 9%Hannemann 3% 2% 41% 12% 7%Davis 4% 7% 3% 15% 3%No  Prediction 6% 11% 9% 7% 56%

If  didn't  select  Ige  or  Aiona:  If  the  election  for  Governor  were  only  between  David  Ige  and  Duke  Aiona  [candidate  name  order  rotated],  with  no  other  candidates,  what  would  you  do?

If  Voted  in  Democratic  Primary  Only:  In  the  Democratic  primary  for  Governor,  did  you  vote  for  David  Ige,  or  Neil  Abercrombie  [candidate  name  order  rotated]?

SENATE  CROSSTABSSenate Male FemaleSchatz 53% 58%Cavasso 33% 25%Unsure 14% 17%

Senate Under  50 50  or  olderSchatz 48% 58%Cavasso 33% 28%Unsure 20% 14%

Senate Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedSchatz 60% 59% 51% 49% 43% 55% 48%Cavasso 29% 26% 28% 41% 30% 38% 28%Unsure 11% 15% 21% 10% 27% 7% 24%

Senate Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiSchatz 52% 51% 66% 57% 58%Cavasso 29% 32% 25% 30% 23%Unsure 19% 17% 9% 12% 20%

Senate Liberal Moderate Conservative UnsureSchatz 83% 61% 25% 50%Cavasso 8% 24% 63% 19%Unsure 9% 15% 12% 32%

Senate Democrat Republican Independent UnsureSchatz 79% 26% 39% 46%Cavasso 10% 58% 46% 7%Unsure 11% 16% 15% 47%

Senate Military  Family Not  a  Military  FamilySchatz 55% 58%Cavasso 32% 26%Unsure 14% 16%

Senate Union  Family Not  a  Union  FamilySchatz 63% 53%Cavasso 26% 31%Unsure 11% 16%

Senate Less  than  $50,000 $50,000  -­‐  $100,000 $100,000+Schatz 58% 57% 63%Cavasso 28% 32% 30%Unsure 14% 12% 7%

SCHOOL  FUNDING  CROSSTABSSchool_Funding Male FemaleFor 32% 36%Against 56% 46%Abstain 7% 7%Unsure 5% 11%

School_Funding Under  50 50  or  olderFor 29% 37%Against 50% 51%Abstain 9% 4%Unsure 11% 7%

School_Funding Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedFor 39% 29% 41% 45% 24% 26% 28%Against 50% 56% 36% 48% 45% 58% 50%Abstain 3% 9% 13% 1% 6% 11% 11%Unsure 7% 6% 10% 6% 26% 5% 12%

School_Funding Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiFor 30% 31% 42% 38% 47%Against 51% 53% 51% 45% 39%Abstain 8% 6% 3% 11% 2%Unsure 10% 10% 4% 6% 12%

School_Funding Liberal Moderate Conservative UnsureFor 44% 27% 34% 35%Against 45% 56% 55% 39%Abstain 6% 8% 6% 5%Unsure 5% 9% 5% 21%

School_Funding Democrat Republican Independent UnsureFor 38% 31% 32% 31%Against 50% 53% 54% 26%Abstain 6% 8% 6% 5%Unsure 6% 8% 8% 38%

School_Funding Military  Family Not  a  Military  FamilyFor 33% 37%Against 52% 49%Abstain 5% 8%Unsure 9% 7%

School_Funding Union  Family Not  a  Union  FamilyFor 36% 35%Against 50% 51%Abstain 6% 6%Unsure 7% 8%

School_Funding Less  than  $50,000 $50,000  -­‐  $100,000 $100,000+For 35% 35% 38%Against 50% 52% 53%Abstain 7% 9% 1%Unsure 8% 4% 8%

CD1  CROSSTABSCD1 Male Female RefusedTakai 45% 47% 0%Djou 49% 42% 0%Unsure 6% 11% 100%

CD1 Under  50 50  or  olderTakai 41% 47%Djou 50% 44%Unsure 10% 8%

CD1 Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedTakai 50% 58% 26% 33% 34% 34% 40%Djou 44% 34% 63% 63% 50% 53% 44%Unsure 6% 9% 11% 4% 16% 13% 16%

CD1 Liberal Moderate Conservative UnsureTakai 75% 55% 18% 32%Djou 19% 37% 80% 36%Unsure 6% 8% 3% 31%

CD1 Democrat Republican Independent UnsureTakai 76% 18% 25% 35%Djou 18% 75% 65% 12%Unsure 6% 7% 9% 53%

CD1 Military  Family Not  a  Military  FamilyTakai 48% 46%Djou 44% 44%Unsure 8% 10%

CD1 Union  Family Not  a  Union  FamilyTakai 49% 46%Djou 42% 45%Unsure 8% 9%

CD1 Less  than  $50,000 $50,000  -­‐  $100,000 $100,000+Takai 47% 51% 52%Djou 41% 44% 47%Unsure 12% 4% 2%

CD1_Decide Takai DjouTwo  weeks 20% 17%One  month 22% 22%Month  plus 57% 60%Unsure 1% 1%

CD2  CROSSTABSCD2 Male FemaleGabbard 68% 70%Crowley 23% 16%Unsure 9% 15%

CD2 Under  50 50  or  olderGabbard 70% 71%Crowley 23% 17%Unsure 8% 12%

CD2 Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedGabbard 70% 65% 79% 79% 51% 54% 70%Crowley 20% 23% 8% 17% 18% 28% 12%Unsure 10% 13% 13% 4% 31% 17% 18%

CD2 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiGabbard 63% 74% 72% 63%Crowley 19% 17% 19% 25%Unsure 18% 9% 9% 12%

CD2 Liberal Moderate Conservative UnsureGabbard 79% 76% 50% 76%Crowley 10% 15% 37% 7%Unsure 11% 9% 13% 17%

CD2 Democrat Republican Independent UnsureGabbard 85% 41% 60% 56%Crowley 7% 44% 23% 0%Unsure 7% 15% 17% 44%

CD2 Military  Family Not  a  Military  FamilyGabbard 70% 71%Crowley 19% 18%Unsure 11% 11%

CD2 Union  Family Not  a  Union  FamilyGabbard 77% 68%Crowley 16% 20%Unsure 7% 12%

CD2 Less  than  $50,000 $50,000  -­‐  $100,000 $100,000+Gabbard 76% 70% 78%Crowley 13% 22% 16%Unsure 10% 8% 6%