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October to December 2015 Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

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Page 1: Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS...Outbound Trends During Q4 2015 Local Trends: Family Travel in the Middle East Asia-Pacific Outbound Trends During Q4 2015 Southern Summer: Australia

October to December 2015

Q4 2015

GLOBAL TRAVEL

INSIGHTS

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2 3 SOJERN.COM / [email protected]

SOJERN’S GLOBAL TRAVEL

INSIGHTFor this report, Sojern analyzed travel behavior worldwide in five regions:

Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, and North America. The data provided in this report is based on search and booking behavior provided by major airlines, online travel agencies (OTAs), meta-search, and other travel service providers. Airline searches and bookings from more than a billion traveler intent data points were

analyzed to better understand how online consumer travel trends are changing.

Table of ContentsAnalysis of Recent Travel Trends

GLOBAL TRAVEL TRENDS: THE BIRD’S EYE VIEW

LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL TRAVEL TRENDS AND MAJOR TRAVEL EVENTS

North America

Outbound Trends During Q3 2015

Holiday Escapes: Beach Travel in the US

Latin America

Outbound Trends During Q4 2015

Holiday Travel in Mexico

Hotel Trends in 2015

Europe

Outbound Trends During Q4 2015

Holiday Escapes: Beach Travel in Europe

Travel Disruptions: The Effect of the Paris Attacks

Advent Travel

Middle East and Africa

Outbound Trends During Q4 2015

Local Trends: Family Travel in the Middle East

Asia-Pacific

Outbound Trends During Q4 2015

Southern Summer: Australia and New Zealand

Travel Trends Forecast: Regional Travel Trends for Spring 2016

North America

Ski Season Predictions

Long Haul Destinations for 2016

Latin America

Semana Santa (Easter) Travel Trends

Europe

Ski Season Predictions

Long Haul Destinations for 2016

Middle East

Dubai Travel Trends: Inbound and Outbound

Asia-Pacific

Chinese/Lunar New Year Travel Forecast

Appendix

Glossary

Methodology

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5 ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS SOJERN.COM / [email protected]

Analysis of Recent Travel Trends

Global Travel Trends: The Bird’s Eye View

The last quarter of 2015 marked the end of a year full of turbulence in the world of travel, from economic meltdowns and terrorist attacks to major changes in diplomatic relations among countries spanning four continents.

Overall, comparing the top ten countries that attracted the most interest in Q4 with the top ten of the most booked, we noted that they mostly overlapped, with a few interesting exceptions: India and Turkey captured the imagination of travelers searching for travel in the last few months of 2015, while Switzerland and the Netherlands claimed enough bookings to gain two spots in the top ten of the most booked. October was by far the heaviest month for both search and bookings, capturing 37% and 38% respectively of the quarter’s searches and bookings.

UNITED STATES

MEXICO

FRANCE

UNITED KINGDOM

TURKEY

INDIA

ITALY

NETHERLANDS

PORTUGAL

GERMANY SWITZERLAND

BOTHTOP 10 COUNTRIES BOOKED

TOP 10 COUNTRIES SEARCHED

SPAIN

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6 7 SOJERN.COM / [email protected] ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

37%33% 30%

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 38%33% 29%

OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Few things can hurt a tourist destination like a terrorist attack, and the impact of the events in Paris were clearly felt across the globe. Travel intent to Paris from Western and Eastern Europe both dipped as low as 50% week-on-week in the days following the terrorist attacks on November 13. First signs of recovery started one week thereafter, especially with French travelers, and more recovery is under way with UK travelers hitting a strong 57% week-on-week increase on January 1, 2016, and US travelers displaying a 46% week-on-week increase in travel intent on the same date.

Sojern looked at Advent destinations in Q4, comparing the most popular European destinations for the first weekends of December with the first weekends of November. Ski destination Bolzano (Bozen) in the South Tyrol region of Northern Italy made the biggest jump, with more than a fivefold increase, followed closely by Rovaniemi, the capital of Lapland and “the official hometown of Santa Claus”, with a jump of 500%.

In Latin America, we took a closer look at holiday travel in Mexico, where all of the top five destinations were domestic, with Cancun, Tijuana and Mexico City in the lead. We also found a sizeable spike in searches for trips around the holidays between November 11 and 17, during El Buen Fin, Mexico’s version of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which accounted for 15% of searches for holiday travel in Q4.

In the Middle East, we examined the specifics of family travel (parties of three or more) throughout all of last year and found that it reached a high of 17% regionally in July, the month of post-Ramadan (Eid) travel. Saudi Arabia and Israel show the biggest shift towards family travel in summer: Twenty-two percent of all travel interest for Saudi Arabia in July and 20% for Israel in August. Across the region, Turkey and Istanbul are top destinations for family travel between Q4 2014 and Q3 2015. Germany and Saudi Arabia compete for second ranked country over the same time period while, for cities, London and Paris rank second and third.

SHARE OF Q4 2015 SEARCH VOLUME BY MONTH SHARE OF Q4 2015 BOOKING VOLUME BY MONTH

0 20 40 60 80 100

74%8%

1TRAVELER

18%

3+TRAVELERS

0 TO 3 DAYS 35%4 TO 7 DAYS 34%8 TO 11 DAYS 13%12+ DAYS 18%

NEW YORK CITYCHICAGO

MIAMI

LAS VEGASLOS ANGELES

5%10%15%20%25%30%35%

60+DAYS

30 TO 59DAYS

22 TO 29DAYS

15 TO 21DAYS

8 TO 14DAYS

0 TO 7DAYS

2TRAVELERS

19%

11% 9% 8%

22%31%

Late Fall/Early Winter Travel Trends and Major Travel Events

North America

Outbound Trends During Q4 2015

MOST SEARCHED DESTINATIONS (OUTBOUND)

SEARCH LEAD TIME (IN DAYS)

DURATION (IN DAYS)

PARTY SIZE SEARCHED

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8 9 SOJERN.COM / [email protected] ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

Holiday Escapes: Beach Travel in the US

Many North American travelers choose to recharge and renew by escaping to breathtaking beaches during the sleepy winter months. Sojern looked at data for flights booked between July and November 2015 to examine beach travel trends for the wintry travel period of December 1 through March 31.

Here’s what we found: Between July and November 2015, travelers in the US set their sights on Florida beaches, booking trips to Miami and Ft. Myers for the upcoming winter. They also looked to Cancun, San Juan, and San Diego for respite from winter blues. Fifty-five percent of them booked solo trips and a third looked to travel as part of a couple.

For this group of early searchers and planners that doesn’t include last-minute bookers, we also noticed two waves of departures, one in early December between the 2nd and 4th, and then a second wave of departures between the 17th and 24th, just before Christmas.

INDIA

0 20 40 60 80 100

0 TO 3 DAYS 19%4 TO 7 DAYS 26%8 TO 11 DAYS 16%12+ DAYS 39%

0.050.10

0.150.200.25

0.300.35

0.40

60+DAYS

30 TO 59DAYS

22 TO 29DAYS

15 TO 21DAYS

8 TO 14DAYS

0 TO 7DAYS

5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

16%9% 9% 8%

22%

37%

73%17% 10%

1TRAVELER

2TRAVELERS

3+TRAVELERS

NEW YORK CITY

CANCUNMIAMI

MADRIDLISBON

Latin America

Outbound Trends During Q4 2015

MOST SEARCHED DESTINATIONS (OUTBOUND)

SEARCH LEAD TIME (IN DAYS)

DURATION (IN DAYS)

PARTY SIZE SEARCHED

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10 SOJERN.COM / [email protected] ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS 11

Holiday Travel in Mexico

Holiday travel in Mexico last year was about evenly split between domestic (52% of flight searches) and international (48% of flight searches), but all of the top five destinations for this period were domestic, with Cancun, Tijuana and Mexico City in the lead. Sojern data shows that the biggest spike in searches from Mexican travelers for trips around the holidays were between November 11 and 17, around Mexico’s El Buen Fin — similar to Black Friday/Cyber Monday. This period made up 15% of searches for holiday travel in Q4.

Top Destinations

Cancun

Tijuana

Mexico City

Guadalajara

Monterrey

Top Origins

Mexico City

Tijuana

Monterrey

Guadalajara

Merida

For Brazilians, the top domestic hotel destinations was Rio de Janeiro, followed by Natal, the capital of Rio Grande de Norte and a hub for coastal tourism that caters largely to Brazilian families. Slightly further North, the city of Fortaleza, one of Brazil’s largest cities, ranks fourth.

Top Hotel Destinations in 2015: Brazilian Travelers

Rank International Destinations Domestic Destinations

1 Orlando Rio de Janeiro

2 New York Natal

3 Miami Sao Paulo

4 Las Vegas Fortaleza

5 Buenos Aires Salvador

Top Hotel Destinations in 2015: Colombian Travelers

Rank International Destinations Domestic Destinations

1 Miami Bogota

2 New York Cartagena

3 Orlando Medellin

4 Las Vegas Isla San Andres

5 Cancun Cali

In Colombia, the capital Bogotá takes the lead as a top hotel destination, followed by Cartagena (home to a 13 kilometer-long colonial stone wall and an old town that is a Unesco World Heritage site) and Medellin, which has experienced something of a cultural rebirth in recent years.

Top Hotel Destinations in 2015: Mexican Travelers

Rank International Destinations Domestic Destinations

1 Las Vegas Cancun

2 New York Puerto Vallarta

3 San Diego Mexico City

4 Los Angeles Acapulco

5 Tucson Playa del Carmen

The top two domestic hotel destinations for Mexican travelers were Cancun and Puerto Vallarta. Acapulco, dubbed “Mexico’s original party town” by Lonely Planet, is also making an appearance in the top five and remains a popular destination for Mexican travelers, even though international travelers have dwindled since its heydays in the 1940’s.

Hotel Trends in Latin America in 2015

In 2015, New York and Las Vegas were the two North American cities that reliably ranked in the top five for international hotel destinations that attracted travelers from Mexico, Colombia and Brazil. Mexican travelers in particular looked at US destinations: San Diego, Los Angeles and Tucson rounded up their top five, while Brazilians also sought out Buenos Aires and Colombians Cancun, in addition to US attractions like Orlando and Miami.

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12 13 SOJERN.COM / [email protected] ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

Europe

Outbound Trends During Q4 2015

0.050.10

0.150.200.25

0.300.35

0.40

60+DAYS

30 TO 59DAYS

22 TO 29DAYS

15 TO 21DAYS

8 TO 14DAYS

0 TO 7DAYS

69%20% 11%

1TRAVELER

2TRAVELERS

3+TRAVELERS

5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

0 20 40 60 80 100

0 TO 3 DAYS 36%4 TO 7 DAYS 27%8 TO 11 DAYS 11%12+ DAYS 26%

17%10% 8% 8%

21%

36%

LONDON

PARIS

BARCELONA

LISBON

AMSTERDAM

MOST SEARCHED DESTINATIONS (OUTBOUND)

SEARCH LEAD TIME (IN DAYS)

DURATION (IN DAYS)

PARTY SIZE SEARCHED

Holiday Escapes: Beach Travel in Europe

UK Travelers Escape Winter Blues and Head to DubaiAs the temperatures dropped, many European travelers set their sights on warmer destinations. Sojern took a closer look at what their preferred beach destinations were, and here’s what we found: The UK saw a high amount of trips booked to Dubai and Bangkok between July and November 2015 for the travel period of December 1 through March 31. Other popular destinations were Barcelona, Malaga, and Alicante, three cities in Spain, a country which we’ve seen the UK favor throughout the year.

Both German and French travelers opted to beat those winter blues with planned trips to Bangkok. Dubai came in second place for German travelers and Barcelona for French travelers. Miami and Sao Paulo made both Germany and France’s top five list, with Miami proving to be more popular with French travelers than German and UK travelers.

Rank United States United Kingdom Germany France

1 Miami Dubai Bangkok Bangkok

2 Ft. Myers Bangkok Dubai Barcelona

3 Cancun Barcelona Palma de Mallorca Miami

4 San Juan Malaga Sao Paulo Martinique

5 San Diego Alicante Miami Sao Paulo

TOP CITY DESTINATIONS

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14 15 SOJERN.COM / [email protected] ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

European Travelers Favour Trips As a Couple Almost half of UK travelers (47%) are opting to travel as a couple compared to only 33% of American travelers. European travelers in general appear to be booking trips for two with 48% of German travelers and 45% of French travelers traveling as a party of two.

Not all Europeans travel around the same dates. While December 12 and 18 were popular departure dates with both UK and German travelers, French travelers showed more variation in departure dates, easily spanning the whole of December. Brits also favored December 23 for departures.

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

FRANCEGERMANYUNITED KINGDOMUNITED STATES

1 TRAVELER 2 TRAVELERS 3 TRAVELERSNUMBER IN PARTY:

55%

40%

47%

13%

42%

48%

10%

40%45%

15%

33%

12%

EUROPEAN DESTINATIONS: WEEK-ON-WEEK TRAVEL INTENT

Travel Disruptions: The Effect of the Paris Attack

On the evening of November 13, 2015, a series of coordinated terrorist attacks occurred in Paris and its northern suburb, Saint-Denis, killing more than 130 people. In response to the attacks, a state of emergency was declared and temporary border checks were introduced.

Travel Intent to Paris in the Week Following Attacks The immediate impact on travel searches and bookings to Paris was severe with a steady drop in global travel intent reaching a week-on-week decline of 43% on November 20. Travel searches and bookings to Brussels hit their lowest fall of 34% week-on-week on November 18 and then dipped again by 30% week-on-week on November 22 after continued terrorist alerts throughout Belgium. The reverberations were felt beyond Paris. On November 19, we saw global travel intent to London drop by 23% week-on-week, Munich by 23%, Rome by 25% and Amsterdam by 20% respectively.

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0

10%

!15 DEC 1514 DEC 1513 DEC 1512 DEC 1511 DEC 1510 DEC 1509 DEC 1508 DEC 1507 DEC 1506 DEC 1505 DEC 1504 DEC 1503 DEC 1502 DEC 1501 DEC 1530 NOV 1529 NOV 1528 NOV 1527 NOV 1526 NOV 1525 NOV 1524 NOV 1523 NOV 1522 NOV 1521 NOV 1520 NOV 1519 NOV 1518 NOV 1517 NOV 1516 NOV 1515 NOV 1514 NOV 15!

BERLIN BRUSSELS LONDON PARIS

15 D

EC 15

14 D

EC 15

13 D

EC 15

12 D

EC 15

11 D

EC 15

10 D

EC 15

09 D

EC 15

08 D

EC 15

07 D

EC 15

06 D

EC 15

05 D

EC 15

04 D

EC 15

03 D

EC 15

02 D

EC 15

01 D

EC 15

30 N

OV 15

29 N

OV 15

28 N

OV 15

27 N

OV 15

26 N

OV 15

25 N

OV 15

24 N

OV 15

23 N

OV 15

22 N

OV 15

21 N

OV 15

20 N

OV 15

18 N

OV 15

19 N

OV 15

17 N

OV 15

15 N

OV 15

16 N

OV 15

14 N

OV 15

13 N

OV 15

-43%

-34%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

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16 17 SOJERN.COM / [email protected] ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

First Signs of Regional Recovery Travel intent to Paris from Western and Eastern Europe dipped as low as 50% week-on-week on November 20 and 45% from the Middle East on the same date. The North African region dipped by 49% week-on-week a bit earlier, on November 18. Few things can hurt a tourist destination like a terrorist attack, and the impact of these attacks were clearly felt across the globe.

What is remarkable is not only the severe dip in travel intent, but the recovery. We observed signs of recovery with travelers looking to go to Paris from North Africa and the Middle East from as early as November 25, less than two weeks after the attacks. By December 2, travel intent was showing strong signs of recovery with positive increases across all regions.

The strongest decline in travel intent to Paris from the US occurred on Thanksgiving Day (November 26). In general, we see lower travel search and booking activity on public holidays. This factor, in combination with current events, led to a magnified negative effect around that day in particular.

French Travelers First to Rebound Just One Week After AttacksFrench travelers were the first to rebound from the attack and showed increased travel intent from as early as November 21, just over a week after the attacks. Travel intent for French travellers soared to a high of 20% week-on-week on November 25. We began to see stabilization in travel intent (no further week-on-week percentage decline) for Paris across European cities including the UK, Germany and Italy at the beginning of December.

From the UK we saw strong travel intent recovery on December 12, with a spike of 67% week-on-week in travel intent numbers. On that day we saw similar, albeit smaller, week-on-week improvements from German (+22%) and US (+12%) travelers. Across all countries of origin we examined, we saw strong increases of travel intent for Paris on January 1. These surges in interest can be partially attributed to normal seasonal fluctuations, but it’s precisely this normality that we find reassuring.

December Travel Intent to Paris Shows Different Pattern than in 2014As expected, we saw a sharp decline in travel intent following the attacks on Paris, putting travel intent significantly lower than the same time period last year. However, when travel interest began to stabilize (no further week-on-week percentage decline), we saw figures soar to an increase of 19% week-on-week on December 12 compared with a decrease of 2% on the same day in 2014.

From December 3 until mid-December, 2015 shows an almost continuously stronger development of week-on-week travel intent than last year. Christmas and New Year 2015 followed a similar pattern to 2014, with travel intent falling pre-Christmas and then rising again from Boxing Day into the New Year. There was a 6% spike in travel intent for New Year’s Eve this year compared to 1% last year.

The conclusion: Normal seasonal patterns of travel intent to Paris in December 2015 were likely affected by the terrorist attacks and are still in the process of settling. This is a space to watch and learn from, especially as 2016 unfortunately shapes up to be another year of travel disruption caused by acts of violence and terrorism.

-0.5

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

10%

0%

28 NOV 1527 NOV 1526 NOV 1525 NOV 1524 NOV 1523 NOV 1522 NOV 1521 NOV 1520 NOV 1519 NOV 1518 NOV 1517 NOV 1516 NOV 1515 NOV 1514 NOV 1513 NOV 15

BOOKINGS

SEARCHES

28 N

OV 15

27 N

OV 15

26 N

OV 15

25 N

OV 15

24 N

OV 15

23 N

OV 15

22 N

OV 15

21 N

OV 15

20 N

OV 15

19 N

OV 15

18 N

OV 15

17 N

OV 15

16 N

OV 15

15 N

OV 15

14 N

OV 15

13 N

OV 15

PARIS FLIGHT BOOKINGS VS SEARCHES

Flight Searches vs Flight Bookings Flight bookings fell more dramatically than flight searches immediately after the attacks and also started to stabilize more quickly from as early as November 21. Flight searches took longer to stabilize and showed a positive increase from December 2 with a 10% increase, which rose to 14% on December 3.

On December 1, bookings recovered by 25% week-on-week. By December 12, flight searches had recovered by 19% week-on-week. On January 3, bookings had increased by 22% and searches by 23%.

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19 ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS SOJERN.COM / [email protected]

Advent Travel in EuropeAdvent is a season observed in many Western Christian churches as a time of waiting and preparation for the celebration of Nativity. In travel terms, we focused on travel that occurred during the first weekend of December to European destinations that have something seasonal to offer travelers, whether it be a Christmas market or slopes covered in fresh powder.

The list of top ten European destinations for the first weekend of December looked rather standard for any weekend of the year: London on top, Paris second and Berlin third. However, comparing the first weekends of December with the first weekend of November, we see a number of interesting destinations moving up the ranks: Ski destination Bolzano (Bozen) in the South Tyrol region of Northern Italy made the biggest jump with more than a fivefold increase.

Possibly the most qualified claimant to the title of reigning advent destination is Rovaniemi, the capital of Lapland and “the official hometown of Santa Claus,” with a jump of 500%. Other rising destinations including Strasbourg, Bruges, Nuremberg, Dresden are famous for their Christmas markets, or are close to ski resorts, as is the case with Innsbruck. Rounding up the list is Tromsø, which has more pubs per capita than any other Norwegian town and is where whale watching and the northern lights are local attractions.

BOLZ

ANO

ROVA

NIEM

I

STRA

SBOU

RG

INNS

BRUC

K

OSTE

ND/B

RUGE

S

NURE

MBE

RG

SALZ

BURG

TROM

VIEN

NA

DRES

DEN

539%496%

235%205% 203%

115%113%108% 98% 93%

DEST

INAT

ION

CITY

PERC

ENT I

NCRE

ASE

TOURIST HIGHLIGHT

SKIING

SANTA’S VILLAGE

CHRISTMAS MARKET

NORTHERN LIGHTS & WHALES

DESTINATIONS WITH BIGGEST JUMPS BETWEEN FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER TO FIRST WEEKEND OF DECEMBER

Middle East and Africa

Outbound Trends During Q4 2015

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

60+DAYS

30 TO 59DAYS

22 TO 29DAYS

15 TO 21DAYS

8 TO 14DAYS

0 TO 7DAYS

0 20 40 60 80 100

0 TO 3 DAYS 21%4 TO 7 DAYS 28%8 TO 11 DAYS 15%12+ DAYS 36%

5%10%15%20%25%30%

78%13% 9%

1TRAVELER

2TRAVELERS

3+TRAVELERS

24%

13%9% 8%

19%

27%

LONDONISTANBUL

PARIS

DUBAI

NEW YORK CITY

MOST SEARCHED DESTINATIONS (OUTBOUND)

SEARCH LEAD TIME (IN DAYS)

DURATION (IN DAYS)

PARTY SIZE SEARCHED

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20 21 SOJERN.COM / [email protected] ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

Local Trends: Family Travel in the Middle East & North Africa

We looked at travel intent for travelers searching and booking for a party of at least 3 between October 2014 and October 2015, as well as forward-looking travel searches and bookings in March 2016.

Across the Middle East, Turkey and Istanbul were top destinations for family travel throughout Q4 2014 to Q3 2015.

Germany and Saudi Arabia competed for second ranked country over the same time period while, for cities, London and Paris ranked second and third. The United Kingdom was the fourth most popular country for family travel across the Middle East.

Destination Country Destination City

Rank Q4 2014 – Q3 2015 Q4 2014 – Q3 2015

1 Turkey Istanbul

2 Germany London

3 Saudi Arabia Paris

4 United Kingdom Dubai

5 France Antalya

6 Egypt Izmir

7 United States Cairo

8 United Arab Emirates Jeddah

9 Italy Munich

10 India Amsterdam

TOP DESTINATIONS FOR FAMILY TRAVEL FROM MENA IN 2015: COUNTRIES & CITIES

Turkey Saudi Arabia Israel United Arab Emirates Morocco

Rank Destination City

1 Istanbul Istanbul London London Paris

2 Izmir Dubai Berlin Istanbul Brussels

3 Antalya Cairo Milan Cairo Barcelona

4 Duesseldorf Jeddah Amsterdam Bangkok Milan

5 London Jakarta Rome Amman London

6 Trabzon Kuala Lumpur Paris Mumbai Madrid

7 Adana Riyadh New York City Jeddah Amsterdam

8 Frankfurt London Geneva Kochi Lyon

9 Amsterdam Paris Basel Colombo Marseille

10 Stuttgart Munich Munich Paris Istanbul

The top five origin countries within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region (we considered those to be Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Morocco), have very different rankings. For Turkey and Saudi Arabia, domestic destinations ranked high. The top three destination cities for Turkish families were Istanbul, Izmir and Antalya. Families from Saudi Arabia also tended to travel to the country’s capital, Riyadh, and to Jeddah. European destinations rank high for other Middle Eastern family travelers, with London as the top city for families from Israel and United Arab Emirates and Paris for Moroccan families.

TOP 5 ORIGIN COUNTRIES: DEPARTURES Q4 2014 - Q3 2015

bold = domestic (within country)

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22 23 SOJERN.COM / [email protected] ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

Turkey Saudi Arabia Israel United Arab Emirates Morocco

Rank Destination Country

1 Turkey Saudi Arabia Germany India France

2 Germany Turkey Italy United Kingdom Spain

3 United Kingdom

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom Egypt Italy

4 Netherlands Egypt United States Turkey United

Kingdom

5 France Indonesia Switzerland United States Belgium

6 United States

United States France Thailand Netherlands

7 Italy Malaysia Spain Saudi Arabia Germany

8 Switzerland United Kingdom Greece Germany Morocco

9 Russia Germany Netherlands Jordan Turkey

10 Greece India Czech Republic Pakistan Switzerland

TOP 5 MENA ORIGIN COUNTRIES: DEPARTURES Q4 2014 - Q3 2015

For families in Israel, Germany was the top destination country despite London being the top destination city. India was the top destination country for families in the UAE. For Morocco, the top destination country was France, in line with Paris being the most popular city for Moroccan families.

Family Travel Spikes During the Summer Family and group travel reached a high during the summer months between June and September, peaking at 17% of all travel interest in July 2015, the month of post-Ramadan (Eid) travel. Saudi Arabia and Israel show the biggest shift towards family travel in summer with peak shares of 22% of all travel interest for Saudi Arabia in July and 20% for Israel in August. By October 2015, the share of family travel from the Middle East settled back into pre-summer levels of around 7% of all travel interest.

SHARE OF GROUP & FAMILY TRAVEL BY ORIGIN & MONTH OF DEPARTURE

MAR

-16

FEB -

16

JAN-

16

DEC-

15

NOV-

15

OCT-

15

SEP-

15

AUG-

15

JUL-

15

JUN-

15

MAY

-15

APR-

15

MAR

-15

FEB-

15

JAN-

15

DEC-

14

NOV-

14

OCT-

14

TURKEY

ISRAEL

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

ALL MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ORIGINSMOROCCO

SAUDI ARABIA

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

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24 25 SOJERN.COM / [email protected] ANALYSIS OF RECENT TRAVEL TRENDS / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

Asia-Pacific

Outbound Trends During Q4 2015

17%9% 7% 7%

39%

5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

73%17% 10%

0 20 40 60 80 100

0 TO 3 DAYS 33%4 TO 7 DAYS 31%8 TO 11 DAYS 12%12+ DAYS 24%

1TRAVELERS

2TRAVELERS

3+TRAVELERS

0.050.10

0.150.200.25

0.300.35

0.40

60+DAYS

30 TO 59DAYS

22 TO 29DAYS

15 TO 21DAYS

8 TO 14DAYS

0 TO 7DAYS

21%

BANGKOKHONG KONG

LONDON

TOKYO OSAKA

MOST SEARCHED DESTINATIONS (OUTBOUND)

SEARCH LEAD TIME (IN DAYS)

DURATION (IN DAYS)

PARTY SIZE SEARCHED

Southern Summer: Australia and New Zealand

It’s hard to imagine Australians and New Zealanders leaving their own beautiful beaches and cities, but variety is the spice of life. Bookings from July until the end of November 2015 showed that Australian travelers were most attracted to Singapore, Hong Kong and Bangkok, while New Zealand travelers looked to Auckland, Guangzhou, Singapore and Hong Kong for their seasonal summer escapes between December 1, 2015 and March 31, 2016.

SYDNEY

MELBOURNE AUCKLAND

BANGKOK 5

GUANGZHOUHONG KONG

SINGAPORE

2

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIA

3 1

1 52 3

4 4

Group travel for New Zealanders was quite slim as they largely favored solo travel at 63%, followed by trips for two at 30% — according to our early forecast, which may change by March. Australians booked trips for parties of one 55% of the time followed by trips for two at 34%.

Travelers from both countries favored trips departing in early December and ending around Christmas. Australians, perhaps eager to start their new year off with a bang, also booked trips departing January 4-6.

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27 TRAVEL TRENDS FORECAST: REGIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS FOR SPRING 2016 / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS SOJERN.COM / [email protected]

Travel Trends Forecast: Regional Travel Trends for Spring 2016

Rising Long-Haul Destinations for Europe and the US in 2016

We peered into our data crystal ball for 2016, focusing in on North American and Western European travelers. We found that, for both groups, the destination with the biggest jump in 2016 compared to 2015 is Brazil, which climbs nine places to position 14 in the US and from 17th to fifth place in Europe, over the entire year. The summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro later this year are likely the catalyst for this increase in travel intent for Brazil.

For European travelers, US cities continue to hold strong, making up half of the top 10 destinations for European travelers, but notable changes in this list include the rise of Dubai, which climbs from 11th to sixth position over the entire year, and Havana, which rises from 18th to ninth for Q1 departures. Las Vegas drops off the list of top ten cities for long-haul travel for Europeans in 2016.

For American travelers, Rio de Janeiro climbs 30 spots to position 28 for the entire year, but during the summer months, when the Olympics are taking place, it moves up 58 places to position six. Other rising cities include Buenos Aires (up 22 places to position 25), Sydney (up 13 spots to position 13) and Reykjavik (up 10 spots to position 24).

With a peak share of 55%, the proportion of Americans flying overseas for an extended time is noticeably lower than the 80% clocked by their European counterparts.

Upcoming Travel Events in Asia-Pacific and Latin America

In Asia-Pacific, the Lunar New Year on February 8 is a major regional travel event, which this year is seeing a week-on-week travel intent increase of up to 240%. That’s somewhat of a decrease from last year’s week-on-week growth figures (313%), but does not signify a decrease in overall volume. The good news is that this year, more Vietnamese and Malaysian travelers are headed to non-domestic destinations, including Singapore, Melbourne, Tokyo and Sydney, destinations that have been gaining ground with Southeast Asian travelers since 2015.

As of early January, Japan and its capital Tokyo occupy the leading positions as Lunar New Year destinations for travelers from the countries that observe the holiday. At country level, Thailand and China take up the next two spots and at city level, Bangkok and Osaka rank second and third.

For Latin American travelers, Semana Santa around Easter is a big week for family travel, especially to beach destinations. Miami is shaping up as the number one searched destination for travel originating in Argentina, Brazil and Colombia, while Cancun makes the top five list of destinations for Mexican, Argentinean and Colombian travelers alike.

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28 29 SOJERN.COM / [email protected]

North America

Ski Season Predictions

For the 2016 ski season, we took a look at searches conducted by North American travelers (US and Canada) to ski-specific airports for travel dates between February 1 and April 30, 2016 and found that Vail and Jackson Hole made the top three most popular ski destinations for both sets of snow lovers, while Steamboat Springs came in third for Americans and Aspen for Canadians. However, this ranking may change later in the ski season, as this is only an early snapshot of what we have seen searched into the end of December.

Of all the ski-specific airports we examined, Bozeman shows the greatest variation in its top three origin markets, with snow lovers from both coasts and Chicago heading there this winter. Mammoth is popular with West Coast skiers, while Durango sees a significant amount of inbound traffic from Texas.

VAIL12

33

JACKSON HOLE21

UNITED STATES

CANADA

STEAMBOAT SPRINGSASPEN

Rank Bozeman Vail Sun Valley Mammoth Durango

1 New York City

New York City

New York City San Diego Dallas

2 San Francisco Dallas San

FranciscoSan Francisco Austin

3 Chicago Miami Los Angeles

Los Angeles Houston

Four-day ski trips are the most popular with Americans, at 26%, followed by five- (17%) and seven-day trips (16%). US-bound Canadians take their ski vacations even more seriously, with 41% of them taking seven or more days to hit the slopes, followed by four days at 19%.

The most searched dates for ski-specific travel in the upcoming months are February 11 and 12 and they revolve around Valentine’s day weekend, however, the dates that are most commonly booked for travel so far are March 5, followed by February 13.

TOP SEARCHING ORIGINS FOR SKI SPECIFIC AIRPORTS

TOP 3 SKI-SPECIFIC MARKETS

Long-Haul Travel in 2016

(Data for travelers researching and booking during the last 4 months of 2015 for departures during 2016)

As most US travelers increasingly research and book their trips only several weeks in advance, January and Q1 in general are the top months of departure so far. Unlike European travelers, whose search and booking patterns record a secondary peak around summer vacations in July, American interest peaks in January and decreases throughout the rest of the months.

Top Destinations in 2016The Dominican Republic, Costa Rica and Jamaica all drop down the list of top ten destinations for US travelers in 2016, the latter by as much as four spots to position 10. In the broader list of popular destinations for Americans, the big winners are: Brazil, up nine places to position 14; Japan, up seven to position nine; and Spain, up five places to position four. Other destination countries trending upwards are Cuba (up 35 spots to 60th) and Haiti (up 26 places to 38th), both continuing trends that began in 2015.

Rank 2015 2016

1 India United Kingdom

2 United Kingdom India

3 Dominican Republic Italy

4 Italy Spain

5 Costa Rica Dominican Republic

6 Jamaica France

7 France Costa Rica

8 Germany Germany

9 Spain Japan

10 Bahamas Jamaica

TOP 10 LONG HAUL DESTINATIONS FOR 2016: COUNTRIES

TRAVEL TRENDS FORECAST: REGIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS FOR SPRING 2016 / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

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30 31 SOJERN.COM / [email protected]

Rank 2015 2016

1 London London

2 Punta Cana Paris

3 Montego Bay Rome

4 Paris San Jose

5 San Jose Montego Bay

6 Rome Punta Cana

7 Oranjestad Tokyo

8 Dublin Dublin

9 Tel Aviv Madrid

10 Bangkok Barcelona

Top rising cities include Buenos Aires (up 22 places to position 25), Sydney (up 13 spots to position 13) and Reykjavik (up 10 spots to position 24). Rio de Janeiro climbs 30 spots to position 28 for the entire year, but during the summer months, when the Olympics will be taking place, it moves up 58 places to position six.

Trip Duration and Number of Travelers

For January and summer departures, the majority of long-haul trips planned and booked by American travelers for 2016 by the end of 2015 are for trips lasting 12 days or longer.

With a peak share of 55%, the share of Americans heading overseas for an extended time is noticeably lower than the 80% clocked by their European counterparts. The share of family travel spikes during the summer months, similar to the Europeans, but again at a lower level.

TOP 10 LONG HAUL DESTINATIONS 2016: CITIES

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TRAVEL TRENDS FORECAST: REGIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS FOR SPRING 2016 / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

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32 33 SOJERN.COM / [email protected]

Latin America: Travel around Semana Santa (Easter)

Easter Sunday is March 27 this year and Semana Santa, the week of elaborate celebrations leading up to the holiday, kicks off on March 20. In Q4 2015, Sojern followed search and booking behaviors in several origin markets in Latin America for travel during or near Semana Santa.

Miami was the number one searched destination for travel originating in Argentina, Brazil and Colombia. In Mexico, Miami trailed behind Cancun and Tijuana, which were the top two most popular destinations searched. Cancun was in the top five of searched destinations for Argentinean and Colombian travelers as well, along with other vacation destinations like Rio, Orlando and Miami, suggesting that Semana Santa is a popular period to squeeze in some beach time. Of non-regional destinations, only New York and Miami made it onto all four of the countries’ top five lists.

Rank Argentina Brazil Colombia Mexico

1 Miami Miami Miami Cancun

2 New York Lisbon New York Tijuana

3 Buenos Aires New York Madrid Miami

4 Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Orlando New York

5 Cancun Orlando Cancun Guadalajara

TOP SEARCHED SEMANA SANTA DESTINATIONS FOR ORIGIN MARKETS

The majority of Semana Santa travelers who booked in Q4 are traveling solo, with the exception of travel originating in Argentina, where 47% are traveling in pairs.

Thirty-one percent of booked travel originating in Mexico was for groups of three or more — more than double the percent of booked group travel originating in Argentina, Brazil or Colombia.

Disparities between the average trip duration searched and booked seemed to be a common trend among Latin American travelers: Most searches by travelers from Argentina were for for nine days, but bookings were on average for a duration of two days. In Brazil, travelers searched for an average trip duration of seven days and booked an average of four and in Colombia, they searched for eight days and booked an average of five.

Mexico alone bucked this trend: Travelers from Mexico searched for and booked an average trip duration of seven days. Sojern data also shows a surge of interest from Mexico between November 11 and November 17 for travel during Semana Santa, which accounted for 15% of all flight searches and 19% of flights booked in the country during Q4. This period coincides with Mexico’s version of Black Friday, El Buen Fin, when airlines run promotions and offer discounts.

The top two cities where most Semana Santa travel originated from were Mexico City and Buenos Aires. The most popular departure dates searched were March 18 and 19, a few days prior to the kick off of Semana Santa, and mid-week on March 23 and 24.

MEXICO CITY1

BUENOS AIRES2

RIO DE JANEIRO5

BOGOTA3SAN JOSE 5

SAO PAULO 4

TOP SEARCHING LATAM CITIES

TRAVEL TRENDS FORECAST: REGIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS FOR SPRING 2016 / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

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34 35 SOJERN.COM / [email protected]

Europe

Ski Season Predictions

The 2016 ski season in Europe is in full swing and, once again, it is a Spanish city - Barcelona - that ranks as Europe’s favorite airport during the ski season, as it offers access to ski resorts not just in Spain, but also in France and Andorra (there are more than 30 ski resorts within three hours of Barcelona, including French Ax les Thermes, Andorran Pas de la Casa/Grau Roig and Spanish Vallter 2000.) Munich, Geneva and Zurich follow in short order behind Barcelona.

The Brits, the Italians and the Spaniards are some of the most avid ski travelers, but so are the Russians (position six in the top 10 of origin countries), in spite of a still-sputtering economy.

TOP 10 ALPINE/PYRENEES CITIES

TOP ORIGIN COUNTRIES — FLIGHT

BARCELONA

ZURICH

BASEL

TOULOUSE

MUNICH

GENEVA

MILANTORINO

NICELYON

4

3

1

7

9

5

2

10

6

8

UNITED KINGDOM

BELGIUM

ITALY 2

SWITZERLAND 8

NETHERLANDSRUSSIA 6

GERMANY

SPAIN 3PORTUGAL

FRANCE4

5

7

1 9

10

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1 TRAVELER 2 TRAVELERS 3 + TRAVELERS

Party SizesDespite ski trips being commonly associated with group experiences, we found that it is not uncommon for group trips to be booked individually. In fact, the vast majority of ski travelers search and book trips for one. Trips starting on a Saturday have the highest incidence of two or more travelers.

NUMBER OF TRAVELERS BY WEEKDAY

Trip Durations The duration of the trip is highly dependent on the day of the week when the departure takes place: Travelers looking to stay for 2-3 days dominate Thursday and Friday departures, while travelers planning longer ski vacations are more likely to arrive between Sunday and Wednesday. Friday is the most popular departure day throughout the winter, with Saturday a close second.

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36 37 SOJERN.COM / [email protected]

Top Long-Haul Destinations for 2016

(Data for travelers researching and booking during the last 4 months of 2015 for departures during 2016)

Interest in long-haul travel during 2016 is spread over the months of the year in a very similar way to 2015, with the only difference being a 10% larger share of March departures over last year, as of January 7, 2016.

As most travelers research and book their trips only several weeks in advance, January and the first quarter of the year, in general, are the top months of departure, with the exception of summer holidays with departures in July and August.

The top two destination countries for long-haul travel by Europeans remain unchanged from last year: The US followed by Thailand. The destination with the biggest jump in 2016 compared to 2015 is Brazil, which climbs from 17th to fifth place over the entire year. Interestingly, the jump is even higher for departures in Q1 2016, where Brazil holds the third position even though its main event of the year - the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro - is not taking place until August.

India, Morocco and Indonesia all slide down by one position overall in 2016, the United Arab Emirates by two, and Vietnam altogether exits the top ten list of long-haul destinations for both Q1 and the year.

Rank 2015 2016

1 United States United States

2 Thailand Thailand

3 Turkey Turkey

4 Australia Australia

5 India Brazil

6 Morocco India

7 United Arab Emirates Morocco

8 Canada Canada

9 Indonesia United Arab Emirates

10 Vietnam Indonesia

TOP 10 LONG HAUL DESTINATIONS ALL NEXT YEAR

Rank 2015 2016

1 Bangkok New York City

2 New York City Bangkok

3 Miami Miami

4 Los Angeles Los Angeles

5 Istanbul Istanbul

6 Sydney Dubai

7 Antalya Phuket

8 Phuket Orlando

9 San Francisco Tokyo

10 Las Vegas San Francisco

No Brazilian city makes it into the top 10 based on these early searches; however, both Rio and Sao Paulo climb compared to 2015, the former by six spots to position 16 and the latter by seven, to position 23.

Other notable changes in the list of top destination cities include the rise of Dubai, which climbs from 11th to sixth position over the entire year, and Havana, which rises from 18th to ninth for Q1 departures. Las Vegas drops off the list of top ten cities for long-haul travel for Europeans in 2016.

TOP 10 LONG HAUL DESTINATIONS 2016: CITIES

TRAVEL TRENDS FORECAST: REGIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS FOR SPRING 2016 / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

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Trip Duration and Number of TravelersThe majority of long-haul trips planned and booked by European travelers for 2016 by the end of 2015 are for trips lasting 12 days or longer, with a focus on couple and family travel. The share of family travel spikes in July and August at 30-40%, while the share of couple trips spikes in September and November, both months typically unaffected by school holidays.

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Middle East

Dubai Travel Trends

Outbound TravelThe top destinations for outbound travelers from Dubai during Q1 and Q2 of 2016 are located in South and Southeast Asia, with two of the world’s fastest growing economies according to the International Monetary Fund — India and the Philippines — taking the top spots for both quarters. Also coming in as top ten destinations are the UK and US, both taking third or fourth place in Q1 and Q2.

Looking closer at city destinations, Manila comes in as the number one destination for both Q1 and Q2 outbound travel, followed by London. Five of the top ten destination cities in Q1 and Q2 are in India. The majority of the remaining top ten cities in Q1 are in South Asia, while destinations in Q2 are more diverse, spanning six world regions.

Destination Cities

Rank Q1 Q2

1 Manila Manila

2 London London

3 Mumbai Kochi

4 Bangkok Bangkok

5 Kochi Calicut

6 Delhi Mumbai

7 Colombo Paris

8 Calicut Cairo

9 Sydney Istanbul

10 Singapore New York City

TOP DESTINATIONS FOR OUTBOUND TRAVEL FROM DUBAI: Q1 AND Q2 OF 2016

In Q1, the trips are equally either very short or very long, with 34% of travelers taking trips that are either 0 to 3 days or 12 days or more. The percent of travelers taking a trip for 12 days or longer increases in Q2 to 46%.

The UAE saw a 2% increase in outbound family travel in Q1 2016 compared to Q1 2015. Even so, majority of outbound travelers from Dubai — the UAE’s most populous city — travel alone. Approximately three-fourths of outbound travelers in Q1 and Q2 will travel alone. Fifteen percent in Q1 are traveling in pairs and 8% in parties of three or more. The percent of single travelers decreases in Q2, while both pairs and parties of three or more increases by 2%.

TRAVEL TRENDS FORECAST: REGIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS FOR SPRING 2016 / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

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40 41 SOJERN.COM / [email protected]

Inbound TravelMore couples and families travel to Dubai in comparison to outbound travelers. Twenty-one percent of inbound travelers are arriving in pairs in Q1 and 25% in Q2.

The UAE is a top destination for family travel originating in the Middle East, accounting for 44% of the region’s family travelers — a 12% increase compared to 2015.

Even so, Saudi Arabia is the only Middle Eastern country to make Dubai’s Q1 inbound top ten list. No Middle Eastern country made the Q2 top ten list.

Origin Countries

Rank Q1 Q2

1 United Kingdom United Kingdom

2 Germany United States

3 India Germany

4 United States France

5 Russia Australia

6 France India

7 Italy Russia

8 Saudi Arabia Italy

9 Spain Switzerland

10 Ireland Ireland

Dubai is a popular destination for Europeans to flock to during the cold winter months and eight out of the top 10 origin countries for inbound travelers to Dubai in Q1 are in Europe, with the UK and Germany in the lead. Long-haul trips are typically researched and booked earlier and Dubai as a destination grows in popularity during Q2 for more distant origin countries, with the US taking second place and Australia in fifth. As Q2 comes closer, more origin countries that are further away from Dubai could pop-up in the rankings.

The predominant trip duration for Q1 and Q2 inbound travel is 4 to 7 days — a long weekend to a week.

TOP ORIGINATIONS FOR INBOUND TRAVEL TO DUBAI: Q1 AND Q2 OF 2016

Asia-Pacific

Lunar New Year Travel Forecast

This year, the Lunar New Year (also commonly referred to as Chinese New Year) is occurring on Monday, February 8, and marks the beginning of a year that falls under the sign of the Fire Monkey, said to bring strength and determination.

In Asia-Pacific, where the holiday is most prevalent and, in many cases, observed as a public holiday, we looked at travel patterns the week before and during Lunar New Year. For travel searches, the main spike in departures occurs on February 5 and 6, the Friday and Saturday before the actual holiday.

Week-on-week travel searches have increased by about 240% (compared with a 313% week-on-week increase last year). This number is likely to increase as many travelers will be booking last minute trips in the coming weeks.

Trip DurationsDuring the week before Lunar New Year, Sojern data is showing an increase in the share of travel searches with longer durations of four to 10 days and more than 11 days. The last days of January and the first days of February see the segment of trips lasting 11 days or more become the biggest segment at 45%, as more travelers build a long vacation around the public holidays.

The weekend preceding the Monday of Lunar New Year sees a big spike of travel searches with a duration between four and 10 days. On Friday, February 5, more than 75% of all trips searched are for four to 10 days.

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Top DestinationsAs of early January, Japan and its capital Tokyo occupy the leading positions as Lunar New Year destinations for travelers from the countries that observe the holiday. At the country level, Thailand and China take up the next two spots and at city level, Bangkok and Osaka rank second and third.

In general, around Lunar New Year, travelers from Asia-Pacific prefer regional destinations. Only the US is a top ten destination for six out of the seven observant countries we studied, however no city in the US makes the cut for city rankings. In fact, the only long-haul cities featuring in the top 10 are London and Paris (and the latter only for South Korean travelers).

Origin Countries

RankObserving Countries Overall

ChinaHong Kong

Malaysia SingaporeSouth Korea

Taiwan Viet Nam

1 Japan Singapore Japan Malaysia Malaysia Japan Japan Viet Nam

2 ThailandUnited States

Thailand Indonesia China ThailandUnited States

Japan

3 China Thailand Australia Australia ThailandUnited States

Thailand Thailand

4 Australia China China Thailand Indonesia Taiwan China Singapore

5 Malaysia Japan Singapore Japan Australia Philippines Singapore Australia

6United States

Australia TaiwanUnited Kingdom

Japan Hong Kong AustraliaUnited States

7 Philippines PhilippinesSouth Korea

Singapore India ChinaSouth Korea

Philippines

8 Indonesia Taiwan Philippines India Philippines Singapore Hong Kong Indonesia

9 Singapore Viet NamUnited States

South Korea

Hong Kong Viet Nam Macao Malaysia

10 Taiwan IndonesiaUnited Kingdom

New Zealand

Viet Nam AustraliaNew Zealand

South Korea

TOP DESTINATION COUNTRIES/REGIONDEPARTURES FEB 1-6

SOUTHEAST ASIA EAST ASIA

EUROPENORTH AMERICA OCEANIA (AUSTRALIA + NEW ZEALAND)

Origin Countries

RankObserving Countries Overall

ChinaHong Kong

Malaysia SingaporeSouth Korea

Taiwan Viet Nam

1 Tokyo Singapore Singapore Singapore Bangkok Osaka Tokyo Bangkok

2 Bangkok Bangkok Tokyo DenpasarKuala Lumpur

Bangkok Osaka Singapore

3 Osaka Manila Osaka London Penang Taipei BangkokHo Chi Minh City

4 Singapore Tokyo Bangkok Bangkok Tokyo Tokyo Singapore Hanoi

5 Taipei Sydney SeoulKuala Lumpur

Hong Kong Hong Kong Fukuoka Tokyo

6 Hong Kong Taipei Taipei Melbourne Denpasar Singapore Okinawa Da Nang

7Kuala Lumpur

Hong Kong London Tokyo Manila Fukuoka Nagoya Manila

8 Manila London Sydney Langkawi Taipei Paris Seoul Siem Reap

9 Sydney Phuket Manila Sydney Sydney London Hong KongKuala Lumpur

10 Denpasar Auckland SapporoKota Kinabalu

Melbourne Sapporo Taipa Hong Kong

This year, only three of the top 10 destination for Vietnamese travelers around Lunar New Year are domestic, compared to four in 2015. Vietnamese travelers are headed to Singapore, which is now the second most sought-after city compared to fifth last year. Also, new entrants Kuala Lumpur and Hong Kong joined the ranks of the top 10 destinations, replacing last year’s Phu Quoc and Seoul.

At the same time, however, Ho Chi Minh City dropped off Singaporeans’ top ten list this year, as did Myanmar’s Yangon, replaced by Penang in Malaysia and Melbourne in Australia. Denpasar (Bali) also dropped six places this year, from position one in 2016, replaced by Bangkok.

This year, Malaysians are branching out to non-Southeast Asian destinations more than last year (when only London was non-regional), adding Melbourne, Tokyo and Sydney to their top 10 destination cities around Lunar New Year.

The earlier timing of the Lunar New Year in 2016 — on February 8 compared to February 19 last year - and the colder temperatures are likely affecting the rise of the warmer, southern city of Osaka as a destination for South Korean and Taiwanese travelers.

For Paris, the recent attacks in November, combined, again, with the timing of the Lunar New Year which this year does not coincide with Valentine’s Day weekend, may have contributed to a decline in popularity with Asian travelers.

TOP DESTINATION CITIESDEPARTURES FEB 1-6

TRAVEL TRENDS FORECAST: REGIONAL TRAVEL TRENDS FOR SPRING 2016 / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

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Top Searched Destinations: The destinations potential travelers are searching

Top Traveled Destinations: The destinations to which travelers are booking

Origination Cities: The cities people are traveling from

Search Volume: Total number of searches made by travelers

Booking Volume: Total number of bookings made by travelers

Metro Areas: The urban regions served by designated airport(s), as defined by the respective country's government bureau

Trip Type: The reason why people are traveling (business or leisure). Sojern uses an algorithm that analyzes different variables to determine whether a trip is for business or leisure.

Trip Duration: The length of a searched or booked trip

Search Lead Time: The length of time between a search and departure date

Booking Lead Time: The length of time between a booking and departure date

Party Size: The number of people traveling on the same reservation

Traveler Intent: The intent to travel as defined by search data

Last-Minute Booker: A traveler that books a trip with seven days or less to travel

Short-Haul Trip: A short-distance trip, usually regional

Long-Haul Trip: A long-distance trip, usually inter-regional

Event to Travel: Lead time (see search lead time or booking lead time, above)

Glossary

Sojern analyzed airline search and travel behavior from October through December 2015 to better understand changing global consumer travel trends. This report reviews Sojern’s findings across the globe.

Sojern’s analysis highlights a number of consumer travel trends, including:

Interested in additional details on Sojern, its research, product or services? Visit sojern.com or email the company at [email protected].

APPENDIX / Q4 2015 GLOBAL TRAVEL INSIGHTS

Regional Coverage

Sojern breaks down the world into regions and subregions as shown in the map below. Regions are shown with a colored background and subregions with a white background.

11 DAYS OR MORE

Caribbean

South America

AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST

Oceania

Southeast Asia

ASIA-PACIFIC

Western Europe

East Asia

South AsiaMiddle East

NORTH AMERICA

Central America

LATIN AMERICA

Eastern Europe

EUROPE

Central Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Africa

Methodology

Sojern’s quarterly insights reports are based on the rigorous analysis of more than a billion traveler intent data points, obtained through Sojern’s unique partnerships with some of the world’s most renowned travel brands. The insights available through this analysis enable brands to deliver the right messages to the right traveler at the right time through display, video, mobile, and social advertising. Our analysis is based on airport level data which is then aggregated to countries and regions. All of the insights are based on very specific data sets as provided by Sojern's data partners.

Sojern never shares or passes out personally identifiable information (PII) such as names, emails, or addresses. The data provided is not a complete view of all global traveler information as different data sources provide additional views of traveler behavior.

For more information, please visit sojern.com.

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Sojern in a Nutshell

800+Global Clients

13 Locations

$1Bin Bookings

350MTraveler Profiles

2.2MHeads in Beds

1.2MTravelers in Seats

2013, 2014 & 2015Winner of Deloitte Technology Fast 500™

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