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TRANSCRIPT
2016 LATINO ELECTION ANALYSIS
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November 30, 2016
Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll2
79%84% 80% 81%
67%
86% 82% 81%88%
80% 80% 81%87%
18%12% 16% 16%
31%
10% 15% 16%10%
17% 16% 15%10%
U.S. AZ CA CO FL IL NC NV NY OH TX VA WI
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
N=5,600
Edison national exit poll: Questions
How did they arrive at 65-29?
Which precincts did they select?
How many were in Latino neighborhoods?
How many Spanish interviews did they conduct?
Did they match Latino sample to known census
demographics?
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National exit polls questions
20% of their sample comes from a pre-election telephone
poll of “early voters”
80% of their sample comes from a small handful of
precincts in each state – which are not representative of
Latinos.
For example in 2014 exit poll they selected ZERO precinct
locations in the Rio Grande Valley, TX and this is where 25% of
all Latinos in Texas live.
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National exit polls questions
Who do they count as Hispanic or Latino?
They have a basic race/ethnicity question that allows
people to self-identify their primary race/ethnicity
Then they have a follow-up question later to attempt to find
more assimilated and acculturated Hispanics.
They report extreme differences in the vote preferences of
these different types of “Hispanics” in their sample
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National exit polls questions
Where do they interview their Latino respondents?
According to the Census
48% of Latinos live in majority-Latino neighborhoods, 22% in
neighborhoods 25-50% Latino and 30% in places less than 25% Latino
Did they collect about half of their Latino interviews from
respondents in majority-Latino neighborhoods?
They need to report out the demographics of Latino sample
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Opinions on the Exit Poll8
Opinions on the Exit Poll9
Opinions on the Exit Poll10
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Latino polling across 2016
Poll Percent Trump
Univision/Washington Post 19%
NBC/Telemundo oversample 17%
NALEO/Telemundo 14%
FIU/New Latino Voice 13%
Gross statistical model 18%
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Perceptions of candidate outreach to Latinos13
Latino Decisions election eve poll, November 8, 2016 n=5600
13 14
6066
29
56
31
23
55
18
5 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Trump Romney Clinton Obama
Truly Cares Doesn't care Hostile
Perceptions of candidate outreach to Latinos14
Latino Decisions election eve poll, November 8, 2016 n=5600
13 14
6066
29
56
31
23
55
18
5 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Trump Romney Clinton Obama
Truly Cares Doesn't care Hostile
TURNING TO REAL
ELECTION DATA FOR
ANSWERS
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Deeper
look at
precincts
in Texas
Opinions on the Exit Poll17
Full analysis of Texas18
Rather than look only at high-density Latino precincts,
analysts downloaded every single precinct for 17 counties in
Texas which covers 75% of the state population
Rely on ecological inference analysis – developed by
Harvard Political Scientist Gary King
Analyzing all precincts can provide accurate vote choice
estimates using official vote data
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Across more than 4,300
precincts data very clearly
shows Latino vote for Clinton
was almost 80% and less
than 20% for Trump
Exit poll claims 61% - 34%
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21 Among 864
precincts
which are
75% or higher
Latino:
Clinton won
more total net
votes than
Obama in 692
(or 80%)
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Across more than 1,200
precincts data very clearly
shows Latino vote for Clinton
was over 85% and less than
15% for Trump
Exit poll claims 61% - 31%
23
Deeper
look at
precincts
in Miami
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We see this trend across almost
all counties in Florida – where
Clinton exceeded Obama vote
and Trump under-performed
Romney among Latinos
Two examples of
counties in Florida
25 Among 230
precincts
which are
75% or higher
Latino:
Clinton won
more total net
votes than
Obama in 203
(or 88%)
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Nevada:
Exit poll estimated
60% Clinton to
29% Trump
LD estimated
81% to 16%
New Mexico Latino Vote 201627
Precinct % Latino HRC Vote DJT Vote
D.A. 80 99% 85% 9%
D. A. 87 96% 84% 9%
D. A. 13 99% 87% 7%
Val. 24 94% 72% 16%
S.F. 79 87% 66% 24%
S. M. 17 91% 69% 11%
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20 most
heavily
Latino
precincts
in Virginia
Wisconsin Latino Vote 201629
Precinct % Latino HRC Vote DJT Vote
D12W232 78% 87% 9%
D12W233 77% 88% 9%
D12W231 75% 85% 13%
D12W236 74% 83% 12%
D12W321 72% 90% 8%
D12W237 74% 88% 8%
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Deeper look
at precincts in
Pennsylvania
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Deeper look
at precincts
in California
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Deeper look
at precincts
in Illinois
Exit poll
reports “N/A”
for IL Latinos
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Deeper look
at precincts
in New York
Exit poll reports
Trump won 23%
of NY Latinos
Where did that
23% come
from???
Ohio Latino Vote 201634
Precinct % Latino HRC Vote DJT Vote
Columbus 04D 75% 90% 7%
Cleveland 14H 74% 81% 12%
Cleveland 14L 73% 80% 14%
Loraine 5D 72% 80% 15%
Cleveland14M 71% 75% 21%
Cleveland 14E 70% 74% 19%
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