philippine election 2010: automated polls a disaster waiting to happen

8/9/2019 Philippine Election 2010: Automated Polls a Disaster Waiting to Happen

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P a c ific S t ra t e g ie s & A s s e s s m e n t s

Assessing 2010 ElectionsAutomation in the PhilippinesDetailing the Technology, Process, & People Risks

December 21, 2009


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Assessing 2010 Elections Automation in the Philippines

SETTING THE STAGE

The importance for the 2010 Philippines national elections to push through withoutcontroversy cannot be overstated. Indeed, the upcoming elections are a pressure-filled opportunity for the country to prove that it can effectively, democratically, andpeacefully transition power. The bid to automate the 2010 elections increases thispressure significantly and adds strain to a country that has historically experiencedelections mismanagement, corruption, and fraud.Several of the country's most recognized and well-placed politicians from both sidesof the aisle have expressed their concerns and doubts over the Commission onElections (Comelec) pursuit of poll automation: Opposition Senator and Chair of the Joint Oversight Committee on the

Automated Election System (AES) Francis "Chiz" Escudero has highlighted thefact that the vendor has failed to answer critical questions on issues such astransmission facilities, mapping, and the allocation of machines and resources tothe voting precincts. Escudero also pointed out the absence of a "master plan"and non-disclosure of contract specifics, including the release of funds.

Staunch Arroyo administration ally and Quezon City Representative DaniloSuarez recently admitted that the bid for automation might cause a failure ofelections. Suarez suggested that the automated election should cover only partsof the country with adequate Internet access, electricity, and accessible roads.

Arroyo-critic and Bayan Muna Representative Teodoro Casino asserted that thetechnology to be used is largely untested and that Comelec violated provisions ofthe Republic Act 9369 that stated that the technology should be pilot-tested firstin highly urbanized areas and two provinces each in Luzon, Visayas, andMindanao. Casino also stressed that the lack of confidence in the presentadministration is fuelling speculation that President Arroyo and her supportersmay use the failure of poll automation to perpetuate themselves in power.

Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile told a joint congressional hearing on pollautomation that there would be chaos in the Philippines if there are no electionsin 2010. Enrile went on to suggest that there would be a revolution or socialexplosion of some sort if the voice of the people is not heard.

There are also numerous independent analysts and watchdogs who have reachedthe conclusion that there are simply too many potential human, procedural, and/ortechnical breakdowns that could lead to a major disruption or, most drastically, acomplete failure of the May 2010 elections. This could result in a constitutional crisisof unprecedented proportions and major political instability that would drasticallyworsen the overall risk climate of the Philippines. Clearly, these conditions would bedevastating for a country desperately trying to elevate its socio-economic status,attract foreign investment, and prove to the rest of the world that it is dedicated todemocracy and the rule of law. Adding fuel to the fire, there is no official record ofany country in the world transitioning completely from a pure manual to fullautomated elections system in one electoral exercise.

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Assessing 2010 Elections Automation in the PhilippinesThis assessment aims to provide a simplified and fundamental understanding of themany risks and vulnerabilities leading up to the planned implementation of the AESfor the May 2010 elections. As with any major systems integration; there are threemajor elements that must be evaluated and aligned to ensure a seamlessimplementation: (1) technology, (2) process, and (3) people. This assessmentleverages that user-friendly framework of analysis to highlight the multiple anomaliesand deficiencies associated with the Philippines AES.

RISKS OVERVIEW

CategoryiskescriptionBidding and awarding of the automation contract toOid evaluationmartmatic-TIM was shrouded in controversy with7 :3 processmartmatic failing to disclose previous contracts and>0ast performance indicators as required by Comelec.s 4=06 0martmatic's relationship with Hugo Chavez'sVenezuelan Government has been called into question.Vendor / Days before the bid award, TIM tried to back out of theconsortium partnership withh Smartmatic suggesting major-o differences between the foreign and domesticcompanies.Smartmatic announced after contract award that it wouldVoting machinehift its manufacturing of the machines from Taiwan toproduction /hina. Consortium failed to meet its commitment todeliveryeliver the first batch of 42,000 PCOS machines by

December 2009.Despite positive pronouncements from Comelec, there

ARMM elections as were major problems during the 2008 ARMM electionsa precedenthich utilized a very similar technology to that beingused in May 2010.So evidence that Com elec or Smartmatic-TIM haveystems subjected the physical components of the voting systemsverification>-r the production models for independent review.O Machine ab ility to run on battery has b een called intoO Machine testinguestion after the machine broke down and startedsmoking during preliminary tests.0omelec has not released the standards against whichSource codehe source code should be tested. US vendor faces

o testingonflict of interest to verify and approve source code forMay 2010.Software will be placed on external memory disk or flash

Separate memory drive complicating the voting system functionality andcardspening up opportunities for damage, tampering, andalteration.Nationwide power/electricity shortages an d black outscould come into play on Election Day; particularly inInfrastructureemote areas. Lack of data transmission availability viawired, wireless, and satellite could impact communicationof precinct votes.

By possessing the private keys, Smartmatic and itsPublic / privateassociated partiess can make changes to the precinctys election results without detection.


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Assessing 2010 Elections Automation in the PhilippinesCanvassing (municipal, provincial, and national) takes

Target of processhe most time and is the target phase of wholesaleautomationheating. Instead, Comelec chose to automate precinct

counting that actually detracts from transparency.Contract signing, general voting instructions, continuity,contingency, auditing plans, machine delivery all eitherProject planning /(/) still unavailable or were delayed. Smartmatic expected tomanagement deliver a flawless project under a miraculously tightL L Ioudget within an incredibly tight timeframe.0elivery of 82,200 counting machines across the 7,100islands that comprise the Philippines archipelago before0_ Logistics May 2010 would be a near impossible challenge even fora developed country. Smartmatic's dependence on locallogistics subcontractors also problematic.Approximately 1,630 different ballots. Sheer length of theballot, erroneous marking, smudges, and poor calibrationThe Ballot / alignment could all cause machine rejection of theballot.Low compensation, more complex and technical system,

Teachersverall higher expectations, and anxiety over a failedelection are causing Comelec difficulty in finding 400,000L L . 1ualified teacher volunteers to administer the elections._Jmartmatic-TIM experiencing major trouble finding andTechnology0pecialistsiring the number of technology specialists needed toLUupport the AES.Due to precinct clustering, three out of four voters will beforced to identify and travel to new precincts; resulting inVoters voter disenfranchisement. Also, Comelec has failed tomake major progress to cleanse the voters list.BIDDING & VENDOR SELECTION

In the beginning, Comelec had the opportunity to conduct an impartial and orderlyreview of each bid. Instead of developing a well-structured Terms of Reference(TOR) or Request for Proposal (RFP) in advance of the bid submission deadline, theComelec Special Bids and Awards Committee (SBAC) published 25 bid bulletins orrequirements changes just days before bids were due. To avoid a unified outcry bythe seven bidding firms, Comelec agreed to extend the bid submission deadline byone week.A completely chaotic bid evaluation process ensued where ultimately all seven of thebidders were disqualified. More disturbing, the SBAC's rationale for disqualificationwas never consistently or effectively communicated to the expelled firms. Uponconsultation with the Comelec Advisory Council, some of the bidders were permittedto re-enter the bidding process, sparking an erratic and prolonged process ofdisqualification and reconsideration. While Comelec has promoted the process astransparent and efficient, meaningful review and oversight by the press andlegitimate third parties was restricted.

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Assessing 2010 Elections Automation in the PhilippinesAfter over a month of heated bid evaluation, on June 3 the SBAC recommended toComelec that the consortium of Smartmatic-Total Information Management (TIM) besanctioned to lead the Philippines elections automation project. Smartmatic-TIM'sbid was PhP7.19 billion (US$152 million); approximately PhP4 billion (US$84.47million) lower than Comelec's publicized budget. On July 10, 2009, Comelec andSmartmatic-TIM finalized and signed an official automation contract for the conductof the 2010 Philippines elections.Besides submitting an outrageously low bid by any reasonable standard, there aremany questions surrounding the winning firm and whether or not Comelec and theSBAC performed the proper level of due diligence. Among them, from a contractualperspective, competitors and independent analysts claim that Smartmatic failed toprovide "authentic and original" copies of previous client contracts that prove itscompetency and qualification to handle elections similar in size and scope to that ofthe 2010 Philippines national elections. There were also critical components of thesubmitted past Smartmatic contract completely redacted or "blacked out" includingthe names of the parties and the purpose of the contract. These issues were neveradequately propounded by the SBAC, nor were they addressed by Smartmatic.Many knowledgeable observers found the flawed Comelec process to be tantamountto a conspiracy of obfuscation couched in highly technical language that preventedmost laymen from fully grasping the nuances of the process or its manyshortcomings and failures.There are other questionable details surrounding share ownership of Smartmatic andits relationship with the widely believed election-rigging Venezuela Government thatwere never fully assessed leading up to the SBAC's recommendation. Also worthconsidering is that fact that local Philippines partner TIM tried to back out of thecontract with foreign-owned Smartmatic just days before Comelec was making itsfinal determination of contract award. Critical analysts assert that the sudden riftshows that there is no genuine unity of purpose among the winning consortium.TECHNOLOGY

The esoteric language and numerous acronyms that characterize the voting industryand its technology add unnecessary degrees of complexity for the average voter. Forthe purposes of this analysis, one need only know that an optical mark reader (OMR)allows a voter to record votes by making marks directly on the ballot which are theninput into a machine for counting. More specifically, a precinct count optical scan(PCOS) a variation of OMR technology tabulates those ballots at the pollingplace and automatically sends results electronically to Comelec. According to theagreement between Comelec and Smartmatic-TIM, there will be 82,200 PCOSmachines built and deployed throughout the Philippines for the May 2010 elections.Originally, Smartmatic purchased a Taiwanese company just two weeks before itsubmitted its bid to manufacture the machines in Taiwan. In November, Smartmaticannounced suddenly that it would shift its manufacturing of the machines fromTaiwan to China.

Under the Smartmatic-TIM AES, voters will shade ovals opposite pre-printed namesof candidates on specially printed ballots and feed them into voting machines for

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Assessing 2010 Elections Automation in the Philippinesscanning of ballot images. The poll machines will then count the votes and transmitresults electronically from polling precincts to Comelec servers located in MetroManila for consolidation. Ballots are stored in a box under the machines while theresults are automatically transmitted. At the end of the voting, the machines will alsoprint copies of the election returns, some of which will be provided to variouselections monitors and political parties at the precincts.In the 2008 Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) elections, one of thetwo different technologies utilized by Comelec was Counting Center Optical Scan(CCOS), a system which also uses OMR technology and is very similar to PCOS.While Comelec has maintained that the ARMM elections were a huge success andset a positive precedent, others insist that there were multiple problems with thesystem that could have unduly influenced the outcome including; inadequateinfrastructure and facilities, equipment malfunctioning, tampering or tainting ofballots, and poor training of staff and monitors. Many predict that the problems in theARMM elections are a probable prelude to a much worse situation in May 2010.PCOS Machine TestingThe Philippines automated elections law mandates that Comelec conducts systemsverification prior to the elections. To date, there is no evidence that Comelec orSmartmatic-TIM have subjected the physical components of the voting systems orthe production models for independent review.During the end-to-end testing process conducted early on by the SBAC technicalworking group (TVVG), the Smartmatic system failed to run on battery power for therequired 12 hours and began smoking after seven hours. The machine would notaccept ballots after the incident, but still it was never subject to any independenttesting to determine the cause of the failure.Since then, Comelec and Smartmatic-TIM have claimed 100% accuracy in tests, butall of these have been conducted in controlled and well air-conditioned settings.There has been little, if any, testing carried out in atmospheres that more realisticallyreflect the tropical and un- air conditioned environments found in the majority ofPhilippines provinces.Source Code TestingProprietary software that will run the PCOS machines will count the votes in May2010. On that basis, without proper verification and security in place, it is possible forthe group that best understands the software to manipulate it and rig the results ofthe May 2010 elections.Source code refers to the underlying, human-readable instructions that make up anysoftware program. The source code is being leased to Smartmatic-TIM by aCanadian-owned company known as Dominion. Smartmatic was able to acquire anexclusive license to use Dominion's source code for the Philippines 2010 elections(the contract between Smartmatic and Dominion is not publicly available).Smartmatic is rolling out a variation of Dominion's ImageCast technology that isbeing customized to fit Comelec requirements and without several components. DueClient ConfidenLid;Page 6 of 16

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Assessing 2010 Elections Automation in the Philippinesto the technical changes, Smartmatic changed the name of the system to SAES1800.

Last October 13, Comelec officially turned over the review of the source code to acompany known as SysTest Labs. SysTest is one of several certification labs orIndependent Testing Authorities (ITA) in the US. Based in Denver, Colorado,SysTest is charged with testing the system's security, telecommunications, errornotification, auditing, and recovery, as well as its functions under various load andstress situations. Theoretically, each module of the source code will be assessedand checked against industry standards. The timetable shows that SysTest will haveless than 5 months to undertake the examination and must submit its report onFebruary 6.In the US, an agency known as the Election Assistance Commission (EAC) certifiesthat elections systems meet specified standards and these standards are widelydistributed and debated before being finalized. To date, there is no evidence thatComelec has designed or approved such standards; begging the question whatstandards is SysTest using to review the Smartmatic source code and if there arestandards, who designed them? Indeed, testing without defined and publiclyavailable standards leaves the process wide open to fraudulence and is essentiallyworthless.The credibility of SysTest has also been called into question having previously beensuspended by the EAC for failing to be accredited and certified by the US NationalInstitute of Standards and Technology (NIST). There also might be some lingeringconflicts of interests for SysTest as Dominion already uses the accreditationcompany to certify the ImageCast against New York State standards. As Dominionprepares to market its products across the US, the company will undoubtedly requireextensive state-to-state certification a job that will likely fall to SysTest. Thus,SysTest stands to benefit financially if the SAES 1800 technology and theImageCast pass verification so they can be marketed across the US and the rest ofthe world.Separate Memory CardsIncreasing the vulnerability of the AES software, the "newer model" of Smartmatic-TIM's machine no longer houses the software on the hard drive of the actualmachine; rather the software will be placed on separate memory cards. Theseseparate memory cards will be managed independently from the machines and mustbe actually inserted into the machine prior to utilization. Clearly, placing the softwareon an external memory disk or flash drive complicates the voting system functionalityand opens up opportunities for damage, tampering, and alteration.InfrastructureAn October 2008 post-election Report on the Advisory Council on the Use of anAutomated Election System in the 2008 ARMM Elections stated that, "the existing ITinfrastructure in Comelec is inadequate to meet the complexities of an automatedelections process." Indeed, there are several critical infrastructure problems that arethreatening to interrupt the entire 2010 elections process.Client ConfideriLidiPage 7 of 16

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Already, there are rotating blackouts in the Visayas and Mindanao as a result ofdeficient power supply and the demand for power on Election Day will certainlychallenge the power levels throughout the country. While the state-owned NationalPower Corporation has supposedly devised a contingency plan to deal with poweroutages in next year's elections, valid doubts persist. The plan, which has beensubmitted to the Department of Energy and Comelec, will require "a few megawattsof mobile capacity which can be moved from one area to another." In the absence ofadequate power, Comelec will rely on batteries. Yet, machines depending on batterypower crashed during early trial phases and many analysts question the claim thateach battery has the appropriate 12 to 16-hour lifespan.Electronic transmission service availability is another major infrastructure concern.Originally, Comelec mandated that the vendor must maintain greater than 99% dataavailability and that the service be available from 3PM on Election Day to 3PM thefollowing day or until all election results have been transmitted. This service, saysComelec, should cover 100% of all clustered precincts by utilizing wireless, wired, orsatellite-based connection or a combination thereof. Smartmatic-TIM contends thatthey have started testing mobile phone networks of telecommunication firms Smartand Globe to determine their reliability. If mobile phone signals are found to be weakor failing in various areas; satellite links would be installed to ensure the immediatetransmission of election results. If anyone has ever used a cell phone, personaldigital assistant (PDA), or the Internet in the Philippines, then he or she realizes thatdata service availability is frequently inconsistent. Furthermore, there is nothing inthe Comelec-Smartmatic-TIM contract that mandates the provisioning of satellitebandwidth. Analysts agree that while 99% data availability was a necessaryrequirement for Comelec to issue during the bidding process as it would help easepublic concern over the transmission of election results; it is nearly impossible forSmartmatic-TIM or any other vendor to achieve in a consecutive 24-hour periodunder current Philippines infrastructure conditions.Private and Public KeysA public key infrastructure (PKI) enables users of a basically unsecure publicnetwork, such as the Internet, to securely and privately exchange data through theuse of a public and a private cryptographic key pair that is acquired and sharedthrough a trusted authority. Comelec bid bulletin #10 directs Smartmatic-TIM togenerate private and public keys of all Board of Elections Inspectors (BEI) and Boardof Canvassers (BOC) personnel the individuals responsible for communicating theprecinct results. Unfortunately, in the proposed system, the private key is not private.After collation of votes, the BEI will seal its tally with a digital signature using privatekeys before transmitting the results. Regrettably, as it stands now, Smartmatic willhave possession of the secret and the public keys of all BEI. In essence, the digitalsignatures would be generated and assigned by Smartmatic and or groupsauthorized by it; not an independent or trusted authority. By possessing the privatekeys, Smartmatic and its associated parties can make changes to the precinctelection results without detection.


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PROCESS

Well-engineered processes must accompany every technology implementation. Thecentral process-focused argument against Comelec's entire approach to electionsautomation is that it is automating entirely the wrong process. Historically,canvassing (municipal, provincial, national) takes the most time and is the targetphase of wholesale cheating. Allegations of fraud and cheating typically occur duringcanvassing when the tally sheets at the municipal or provincial level are doctored bysome local officials to favor certain candidates. The Tagalog term DAGDAG-BAVVAS(rough translation: add-subtract) is another common cheating tactic duringcanvassing and simply means that numbers are manipulated by adding digits to thepreferred candidate and at the same time subtracting digits from the actual votestallied or from another candidate. Many analysts assert that canvassing phaseshould have been the target of automation. Instead, Comelec chose to automateprecinct counting whereby the process loses transparency, counting will be hiddenfrom the public view, and automated cheating becomes a real possibility. There aremultiple other process-oriented shortfalls.Project Planning / ManagementProject planning and management is a core process based on three interrelatedcomponents: schedule, cost, and quality. It is widely known in the projectmanagement profession that changes to any one of these components will likelyresult in changes to the others. For example, if functionality is added to a technologysystem to enhance its quality, there will likely be delays in the project schedule andincreases to the project cost. Similarly, if the project schedule is accelerated, theproject will likely require more resources to get the job done faster, thus increasingproject costs and would be more susceptible to quality degradation. Simply,Comelec's project management does not adhere to globally accepted industry bestpractices in implementing a massive nationwide technology project.Any schedule delay puts the entire project in jeopardy and there have already beenmany. The contract signing alone delayed the vendor by six weeks. To date, generalvoting instructions, continuity, contingency, auditing plans are all either stillunavailable or were delayed. Comelec earlier said the training of teachers and othersupport staff would be held in November 2009, but postponed it to February 2010.The latest advisory from Comelec rescheduled the exercise to March or April 2010.Additionally, the automation consortium will fail to meet its commitment to deliver thefirst batch of 42,000 PCOS machines by December 2009. Comelec admitted that theteam deployed to inspect the ongoing manufacturing of the machines in Shanghai,China revealed that Smartmatic-TIM could "probably" only deliver around 30,000machines by the end of December 2009 and the other 12,000 in January 2010. Theconsortium gave as reasons for the delay the heavy sea traffic and the high shippingcost during the holidays. This excuse is highly questionable as manufacturerstraditionally ship holiday goods far in advance of Christmas to ensure theiravailability to consumers in November when shopping begins. Additionally, by allaccounts there is a surplus of unused freighters and container ships sitting idly at

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Assessing 2010 Elections Automation in the Philippinesanchor off ports like Shanghai waiting for the global recession to subside. Finally, theSmartmatic-TIM claim of prohibitively higher shipping costs would also indicate littleslack in the project budget to complete the project if time is running out.LogisticsEven if Smartmatic's technology was perfect, the logistical requirements are in andof themselves a nightmare for even the most competent elections systems provider.These logistical tasks involve the delivery of the 82,200 counting machines acrossthe 7,100 islands that comprise the Philippines archipelago before May 2010. At thehearing of the constitutional amendments and electoral reforms committee in theSenate, Comelec officials were criticized for leaving most of the decisions aboutlogistics and communication facilities to the consortium of Smartmatic-TIM.Of course, Smartmatic turned to subcontractors to coordinate logistics. During aJune 23 congressional hearing, Comelec revealed that Smartmatic would use thefirm 2Go to store and deploy the counting machines to be used on Election Day.Owned by the powerful Aboitiz family who is well-connected with President Arroyoand First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo, 2Go is a nationwide courier firm withfacilities across the country. After review of the logistics requirements, however, 2Gobacked out of the arrangement. Now Smartmatic is negotiating with local logisticsproviders to facilitate the storage and delivery of the hardware. There has been littlepublicized on Smartmatic's success to contract these parties and one must questionif all the proper due diligence has been conducted before each local company istrusted to control and monitor voting machine storage and distribution.The Ballot

Since the May 2010 elections will include candidates down to municipal and citypositions, there will be approximately 1,630 different ballots. Clearly, any misprintingof these ballots including errors and omissions will confuse voters and provideparties significant reason for protest.Furthermore, the ballot is expected to be approximately 30 inches in length;depending on the total number of candidates. The unconventional length was nevertested by the SBAC and there is still much uncertainty over whether or not the PCOSwill be able to effectively process that many ballots at that length in the time allotted;especially for the more crowded voting precincts. The unwieldy nature of the ballotalso does not provide adequate degree of privacy during voting and can easily jamthe PCOS.There were also accusations during the original machine testing that ink on theballots bled through to the opposite side, partially obscuring the candidate nameslisted on the other side. Erroneous marking, smudges, poor calibration/alignmentcould cause rejection of the ballot. Since no replacement ballot would be given, thiscould result in major disenfranchisement of the voter.




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PEOPLE

Even first-class technology and optimized processes require human management,oversight, and, when something inevitably goes wrong, troubleshooting. There aremany people involved in the conduct of these automated elections and none of themappear to completely understand their roles and responsibilities or have thenecessary training to conduct their jobs effectively.Teachers

Public school teachers across the Philippines are being called on to tackle thearduous task of administering the vote on Election Day 2010. Public school teachersserve as members of the Board of Election Inspectors (BEI) and the Board ofElection Canvassers (BEC) the duties and responsibilities of which have nothing todo with their role as teachers. While using teachers to facilitate and manage thevoting process is common for democracies across the world, the 2010 Philippinesnational elections are shaping up to offer a unique set of risks and challenges for theeducators.In the past, prior to Election Day, teachers attend instructional briefings by Comelecto familiarize themselves with the elections processes. On the actual Election Day,independent poll watchers accompany the teachers to pick up all voting materialsand bring them to the voting site usually a school or community center. Typically,there are three teachers that comprise the BEI for each precinct. Voting starts at7:00AM and there are no official lunch breaks. When the voting ends at 3:00PM, theteachers must count the ballots and then physically bring the official election returnsand ballot box to the local Comelec office leaving the teachers vulnerable tothreats and intimidation.Theoretically, poll automation is expected to streamline the process and lesson theworkload of the teachers as they are no longer expected to manually count anddeliver the results by hand because the automated polls will send the results toComelec headquarters online. In fact, Comelec is estimating that the requirednumber of teachers for the 2010 elections is approximately 400,000 almost half ofthe 750,000 teachers that have served at voting precincts in the past. The plannedreduction in staff in 2010 is a byproduct of the clustering of precincts from 250,000nationwide to only 80,000. Each clustered precinct will still be manned by threepublic school teacher BEls.While all this appears to be good news for teachers and voting administration ingeneral, automating the elections will now require the teachers to fully understandthe PCOS technology so they can assist the largely non-technical voting public andtroubleshoot a wide-range of potential technical glitches and problems. WhileComelec claims that teacher training and demos have begun in select areas, criticsquestion how that is possible when the voting machines have not yet been built ordelivered. Moreover, in the provincial Philippines, few people including schoolteachers have even a basic understanding of technology systems and or how to usecomputers.




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For their hard work and trouble, the teachers are each paid a small honorarium ofPhP1,000 (US$21) per day. The low compensation, more complex system, overallhigher expectations, and anxiety over a failed election have some teachers up inarms and asking to be excluded. The 25,000-strong Teachers Dignity Coalition(TDC) has urged lawmakers to amend the Omnibus Election Code to makerendering poll duties voluntary for teachers. The bill has been filed in the Senate, butwith Congress soon adjourning, analysts are highly doubtful that it will ever pass.Some teachers in Sulu and parts of Western Mindanao have also threatened toboycott the May 2010 elections if the government cannot guarantee appropriatesecurity. This is especially true in remote areas where rogue groups and privatearmies command more of the security situation than the government. Fearsworsened with the recent kidnapping and beheading of Gabriel Canizares, theschool head of the Kanagi Elementary School in Patikul, Sulu. Since the start of theyear, at least nine teachers have been kidnapped in Sulu and other parts of WesternMindanao. The Teachers Organization of the Philippines Public Sector (TOPPS)said the abduction of teachers in Mindanao is a disturbing trend that highlights therisks that all school teachers face on a daily basis.Technology SpecialistsTechnology specialists will be required to help administer and operate the 82,000PCOS machines. Comelec and Smartmatic-TIM claim that many of these"employees" will be deployed in the field and others will be stationed in a special callcenter to respond to technical questions. Allegedly, Comelec and the Department ofScience and Technology (DOST) are also training 500 technology experts for theBEI. The poll body has mandated that at least one member of the BEI should havetechnology knowledge and training on how to handle PCOS machines. Comelec hasalso claimed that the agency has coordinated with the local IT industry for itspersonnel requirements and is planning to field 100 IT experts to variousmunicipalities and cities to supervise the poll proceedings. In a country that has amajor shortage of technology professionals that can barely support the still buddingBusiness Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry, analysts and observers are doubtingthat Smartmatic-TIM will be able to find and hire the number of technologyspecialists needed to support the AES.

VotersAn estimated 48 million voters are expected to vote in the May 2010 elections. Asstated, there were 250,000 precincts nationwide of 200-300 voters per precinct. For2010, these will be re-clustered to only 80,000 precincts so roughly one out of fourvoters will vote in the same facility as he or she has traditionally voted. Three out offour will be forced to identify and travel to new precincts. The situation could verywell result in major voter inconvenience and disenfranchisement.Comelec also claims that it will cleanse the voters list by December. The Institute forPolitical and Electoral Reform recently revealed 691 voters registers in Taguig Citywho were strangely all born in 1901 .Local Comelec officials explained that this mightbe due to the computer default, where registrants, who failed to write down theirClient Confii -diPage 12 of 16

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Assessing 2010 Elections Automation in the Philippinesactual birth dates, are registered under the computer's default birth date of January1, 1901. Other anomalies are a result of erroneous encoding. To date, Comelec'sonly real solution to voter list cleansing has been to define what constitutes an invalidname. First, the voter name is invalid if he or she is already dead. Second, a voter isde-activated when he or she did not exercise his or her right to vote for twoconsecutive elections. Third, a voter is excluded by the court because he or she isnot qualified, convicted of a crime, or not a resident of that municipality. A pollutedvoters list has historically been a major cause of concern in Philippines elections andis one that cannot be alleviated by automation.

CONCLUSIONS

The most rational argument against the bid to automate the 2010 elections is that thePhilippines Government and Comelec simply do not have the capability orknowledge to manage such a major technology project. Phrased another way, thegovernment does not have a full grasp on exactly what is being outsourced so theyhave no way to determine if the automation consortium is getting the job done.Clearly, the more Smartmatic-TIM relinquishes control to third parties that stoodoutside of the official evaluation process, the higher the risk of something majorgoing wrong.Proving institutional difficulties and widespread ineptitude, the PhilippinesGovernment has a deplorable track record implementing technology projects. Anindependent study on government ICT and telecommunications projects concludedthat government agencies lack coordination and the infrastructure to deliver servicesto the public. Moreover, the study revealed that legal problems, technical issues,equipment dysfunction, and poor financial management impact the vast majority ofPhilippines Government technology implementation attempts.The preliminary results of the study compelled the researchers to identify and trackspecific government technology projects and assign various completion or successlevels. This analysis resulted in a disturbing number of "Level 3" technology projectswhich indicates that the work has been suspended or is incomplete; that the projectrequires an audit; that the system was never operationalized or implemented; thatthe benefits were never realized; and that the project requires a closure strategy.The following table captures several of the most noteworthy "Level 3" projectsattempted by the Philippines Government. It is important to note that most of theseprojects cost less than the AES which would imply a more modest and manageablescope of work. If the below projects are considered "failures" expect the same fromthe much more complex automated elections in May 2010.




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Assessing 2010 Elections Automation in the PhilippinesLEVEL 3 PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT TECHNOLO GY PROJECTS

ProjectgencyosttartevelDateComelec- ACM ComelechP1.3 b illion/a(US$28.26

million)Land Titlingand Registration Authority (LRA)hP4.1 billion000ComputerizationUS$89.13million)Machineepartment of Foreign AffairshP2.5 billion00 2ReadableDFA)US$54.34Passport Visaillion)National Crimeational Computer Center (NCC)hP200 million/aSystemUS$4.34million)Emergencyepartment of Interior and LocalhP90 million004Networkovernment (DILG)US$1.95Philippinesillion)PCs for Publicepartment of Trade and IndustryhP584 million004High SchoolsDTI)US$12.69million)GMDSSommission on Information andhP781.4/aCommunications Technologyillion(CICT)US$16.98million)NTP 1-1 andepartment of Transportation andhP22 billion/aRTDP (Digitel)ommunication (DOTC)US$478.26million)TSB IIIC ThP1.57 b illion998(US$34.13

million)Philippinesffice Press Secretary-PhilippineshP75 million004Admin Network Information Agency (PIA)US$1.63million)PhilSatOTChP1 billion994(US$21.74million)It begs the question, "If the Philippines Government has proven a complete inabilityto carry out major projects, what are the chances that the AES a massive,nationwide technology implementation that must be conducted flawlessly under atight timeline with the entire country watching is conducted and implementedsuccessfully?"More troubling, Comelec specifically has a reputation for being mismanaged andlacking transparency. Less than four months from elections day in 2004, theSupreme Court declared an elections automation contract void with Mega Pacificconsortium. It was later discovered that the bid was rigged and the company did notparticipate in the actual bidding. The company did not even come close to meetingthe eligibility requirements. The computer hardware and software also failed to passtests at the time of the award. Mega Pacific has refused to pay back the governmentfor the contract award despite a complete failure to deliver.

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Transparency and rigor at every stage of the automation testing and accreditationprocess is critical for the proper conduct of the Philippines 2010 elections andComelec must demonstrate a dedication to proper management and oversight. Yetto date, there is no substantive evidence of proper controls to limit the kind ofinappropriate behavior that could ultimately call the automated system or entireelections into question. Elections losers and others who do not get their way willdefinitely be the first ones to look back, suggest impropriety, and make noise aboutillegitimate elections. These kinds of holes make their job easy.While the Philippines Government and Comelec continue to guarantee a successfulautomated election in 2010, there are very real consequences if the automatedelections in May fail to deliver credible returns. The Omnibus Election Codestipulates that after a party submits a valid petition or protest, the Comelec shall callfor the holding or continuation of the election not held, suspended, or which resultedin a failure to elect. The Code states that the election should occur not later than 30days after the cessation of the cause of such postponement or suspension of theelection or failure to elect.After any vacancy in the offices of the President and Vice-President, the PhilippinesConstitution empowers Congress to convene within seven days to enact a lawcalling for a special election to elect a President and a Vice-President. This electionshould be held within 45-60 days from the time Congress makes its decision. Theconvening of the Congress cannot be suspended nor the special election postponed.It is important to note that there is no specific constitutional provision that addressesa complete failure of elections. Just like the offices of the President and VicePresident, however, the sitting Congress remains in place until June 30, 2010 andwould be expected to determine the path forward. Complicating the matter, all of theHouse seats and half of the Senate seats are to be elected in May so politicalposturing between May 10 and June 30 is a guarantee. Senator Escudero hasproposed that Congress convene five days before June 30, 2010 to select atransition president in case there is a failure of elections. Others are recommendingthat Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno be designated by law as actingpresident in case of elections failure.Acknowledging the country's history of political controversy and still immaturedemocratic institutions, analysts question if the Philippines can endure this kind ofadvanced political process. Indeed, with so much in stake in 2010, any initial failureof elections could provoke political passions to the point of constitutional crisis andchaos.The wild card in all this is how sitting President Gloria Arroyo will react to electionsfailure. Arroyo critics suggest that some pro-administration congressmen in the lowerHouse would obstruct congressional proceedings to determine the interim leader soshe could stay in office. More dramatically, Arroyo could exploit any perceivedmalfunction in the automated election to invalidate the results. This is especially trueif Arroyo does not see things going her way and the opposition is well-positioned towin. If she still commands the support of the military and police, Arroyo could use the




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Assessing 2010 Elections Automation in the Philippineselections failure as pretext to declare martial law, or at the very least a state ofemergency, to arm her government additional powers against opposition members.This remains a most drastic scenario, but in Philippines politics anything is possible.Elections in the country are typically full of irregularities a reality that has seeminglybeen accepted by Filipinos. Misdeeds including fraud, vote-buying, ballot switching,top down cheating schemes, and both valid and unfounded protests over results arehard-wired into the Philippine elections system and voter psyche. It is doubtful thateven the best AES could fully reverse these dynamics.

Pacific Strategies & Assessm entsHong Kong Manila Beijing Shanghai Bangkok MilwaukeeTel Nos.: (632) 843 6856Website: www.psagroup.comEmail: [email protected]: This document may not be distributed externally or reproduced for external distribution in any formwithout the expressed written permission of Pacific Strategies & Assessments.


philippine election 2010: automated polls a disaster waiting to happen

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