policy making and uncertainty assessment

17-10-2007

INTARESE - Copenhagen

Policy making and uncertainty assessment

Practical implications of the MNP-RIVM approach

17-10-2007

INTARESE - Copenhagen2

Jan Wijmenga

• 2002: MSc. in science & policy and international environmental law,

Utrecht University

• 2002: Ministry of Agriculture, International affairs dept.

• 2003-2006: policy advisor, Environment committee, European

Parliament

• 2006-current: senior policy advisor, Ministry of Housing, Spatial

Planning and Environment

- Revision of EU air quality directive

- Revision of EU NEC directive

- Effects of climate mitigation measures on air quality

17-10-2007


Ministry vs Agency

• The Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) is a government

agency, providing evaluations of and projections for the government’s

policy

• Although the government supplies most of its budget and requests the

larger part of the published reports, MNP can also independently decide

to publish reports on items it considers valuable

• Certainly for projections, uncertainty assessment plays an important

role

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Case: attainment of air quality standards

- EU directives require attainment of

limit values for particulate matter (PM10),

nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and several other

substances

- Dutch courts refuse building permits if

air quality at building site does not meet

the limit values when they enter into

force

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Uncertainty in pollutant concentrations

Uncertainty in the

concentrations used in PM10

maps is substantial:

15 to 30% for a specific

year and 20 to 40% for future

assessments. The overall

uncertainty along streets and

highways can total 45%.

Uncertainty (%) 2006 2010-2020

PM10 20 30

O3 20 40

NO2 20 40

SO2 60 60

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Case: meeting NEC-ceilings

NEC-directive (2001/81/EC) sets emissions ceilings

for four polluting gases: NOx, SO2, NH3 and VOC, not

to be exceeded after 2010.

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Uncertainty in achieving NEC-targets

Although the emissions of the NEC gases are declining,

according to MNP it is not certain that all ceilings will be met:

pollutant Trend ’90-’05 Trend ’00-’05 Chance of

Achievement

NOx 50 %

SO2 < 33 %

NH3 60 %

VOC > 66 %

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Uncertainty & Policy making

The eternal dilemma:

Scientists want to have the

most accurate result

Politicians want the

best accepted result

Lawyers want the

most convincing result

The result of showing uncertainty in

concentrations or emission data:

“...not very convincing...

...much too positive...

...action is needed!”

Comments by Ms Cramer, Minister for Environment

Extra pressure from politicians

and stakeholders on additional

abatement measures.

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Concluding

In order to have a clear sight on

the attainment of environmental

targets, knowledge of uncertainties

is essential

However, too much uncertainties

may lead to a pressure on

additional measures, which can

have adverse effects on business

policy making and uncertainty assessment

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