PathwaysProject:TransitioningtoCarbonNeutralityintheU.S.

JimWilliams,UniversityofSanFranciscoRyanJones,BenHaley,JamilFarbes,EvolvedEnergyResearch

GraceWu,NCEASErinMayfield,PrincetonUniversityMargaretS.Torn,BerkeleyLab

U.S.DeepDecarbonizationPathwaysProject

January23,2020

SDSNUSA

Carbonneutralitybymid-century

Remainingbelow1.5°Crequiresreachingcarbonneutralitygloballybyabout2050

DRAFTRESULTS

Questions

ToachievecarbonneutralityintheU.S.by2050:Ø Whatchangesininfrastructurearerequired?

Ø Whatisthecostofdifferentpathways?

Ø Whatarethekeychallenges?

Ø Whatpoliciesareneeded?

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PathwaysProject

Ø WhitepaperonpathwaystocarbonneutralityintheUnitedStatesbymid-century

Ø AnalysisandpolicyrecommendationsthatadddepthandrealismtoGreenNewDealconcept

Ø Chaptersoninfrastructure,federalpolicy,regionaltransitions,jobs,landuse

Ø AimedatfederalandstatepolicyaudiencesØ InternalSDSNdraftinFebruary,publicreleaseinMarch

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FiveTransitions

Pathwaysprojectexaminesfivetransitionsentailedinreachingcarbonneutrality:

Ø InfrastructureØ Economy

Ø LanduseØ Jobs/communities

Ø Policyprocesses

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InfrastructureTransition

Ø 4pillars:(1)energyefficiency(2)electrification(3)electricitydecarbonization(4)carboncapture

Ø Achievedbyrapid,large-scalebuildoutofefficient,lowcarboninfrastructuretoreplaceexisting

Ø Theleast-costcarbon-neutralenergysystemisorganizedaroundrenewableelectricity

Ø Tradeoffsamongtechnologychoices,landuse,jobs,socialprioritiesmoreimportantthancostperse

Ø Physicalactionsrequiredovernext10yearsarewell-understoodandconsistentacrosspathways

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EconomicTransition

Ø Carbonneutralityinenergyandindustryby2050isachievableatanetcostof0.2%ofGDP

Ø Energyspendingas%ofGDPonlowendofhistoricalrange,investmentrequirementsnotlargeforU.S.

Ø Changesingrosseconomicflowsarelarge,~$1Tperyearlessonfossilfuels,moreoninfrastructure

Ø Therearewinnersandlosersamongbusinesses,workers,andcommunities

Ø Themostchallengingpartoftheeconomictransitionispoliticaleconomy,notcostorfinance

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Jobs/CommunitiesTransition

Ø Decarbonizationwillsupportjobsovermultipledecadesandacrossmanysectorsandregions.

Ø Phasingoutfossilfuelswillresultinjoblossesinmanyindustries,occupations,andregions

Ø Ruralcommunitiesdependentonextractionwillbemostaffected

Ø Planning,policies,andinstitutionalsupportforalabortransitionthatexplicitlyaccountsforsocialequityarerequiredforrapiddecarbonization

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LandUseTransition

Ø Reachingcarbonneutralityneedslandinthreeways:siting,biomass,andcarbonsink

Ø Landrequirementsforwind,solar,andtransmissionsitingarelargeàcanbebottleneckifhandledpoorly

Ø Regionalcoordinationenableslow-cost,low-impactrenewableenergydevelopment(vs.state-as-island)

Ø Regionalenergysolutionsrequireearly,proactivelanduseplanning,esp.transmission

Ø Integratedland-energy-climateplanningcanidentifydevelopmentopportunitiesthatavoidlanduseconflicts

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Policy-ProcessTransition

Ø Carbonneutralpathwaysindicateneedforpolicyprocessesthatdonotcurrentlyexist

Ø Planningandcoordinationacrossdecades,sectors,geographies,andjurisdictionallevels

Ø Short-termactionsinagivenarenainformedbylong-termsystemview,andvice-versa

Ø Stakeholderengagementincreased,informedbyrealistic,rigorous,ongoinganalysis

DRAFTRESULTS

INFRASTRUCTUREANDECONOMYTRANSITION

ResearchFocus

Energyandindustrial(E&I)CO2Ø fromfossilfuelsusedforenergyandfeedstocks

Ø morethan80%ofcurrentUSGHGemissions

Ø notincludinglandCsink,non-CO2GHGs

Howwouldacarbonneutralsystemwork?Ø reliabilityinhighrenewableselectricitysystem

Ø productionoflowcarbonfuelsØ decarbonizingindustry,freighttransport,aviationØ integratingCCUSwithenergysystem

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Tools

Energysystemmodelandscenarioanalysistool

Optimalcapacityexpansionmodelforelectricityandfuels

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Scenarios

ReferencecasebasedonAnnualEnergyOutlookØ DOE’sBAUprojectionofpopulation,GDP,energyservicedemandusedinallscenarios

CentralcaseØ least-costpathwaytocarbonneutrality

CostsensitivitiesØ high/lowfossilfuelprices,technologycosts

ConstrainedcasesØ limitsonland,biomass,consumeradoptionratesØ 100%renewableprimaryenergy,highconservationØ netnegativeemissions(-500MtCO2in2050)

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EmissionsTrajectory Annual CO2 Cumulative CO2 2020-2050

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FourPillarsofNetZeroSystemU.S.Benchmarks

95%reductioninemissionsintensity

40%reductioninper-capitafinalenergydemand

300%increaseinshareofenergyfromelectricity

400MMT+carboncaptureanduse/storage

ElectricityDecarbonization EnergyEfficiency Electrification CarbonCapture

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CurrentEnergySystem

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CentralCase,LowFossilFuelPrice(2050)

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100%RenewablePrimaryEnergy(2050)

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InfrastructureTransition

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NetCost(CentralCase)

Netsystemcost=0.2%ofGDP-  largechangeingrosscosts-  spend$850Blessonfossilfuels-  spend$925Bmoreontechnology

202020352050

1000B

800B

600B

400B

200B

0

-200B

-400B

-600B

-800B

-1000B

2018$USD

Bio-andsyntheticfuels

Demand-sidecosts

Oilandrefinedproducts

Naturalgas

Electricitysystem

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NetCostAcrossScenarios

CostofconstrainedcasesishigherthancentralcaseØ  ifaresourceislimited,highercost

substitutesarerequiredØ  100%renewableprimaryenergy=~0.8%

ofGDPØ  netnegativecase<0.5%GDP

0.8%

0.7%

0.6%

0.5%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

Netcost(%ofG

DP)

100%renewable

Central

202020352050 DRAFTRESULTS

HistoricalEnergySpendingas%GDP

Historical Modeled

1980200020202040

14%

13%

12%

11%

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Energysystemcost(%ofG

DP)

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PathwayChoicesandSocietalTradeoffs

Ø limitedlandandbiomassàmorenaturalgasandcarbonsequestration,theonlycasewherenuclearexpansioniseconomic

Ø delayedelectrificationàgreateruseofelectricfuels,biofuels,andland

Ø 100%primaryREàhighestdemandforelectricfuels,biofuels,andland

Ø highconservationcaseàlessinfrastructureandland,requiresmajorbehaviorchange

DRAFTRESULTS

RequiredActionsinthisDecade

Rapidrampuptoreach2030benchmarksØ Solarandwindcapacity:3.5xcurrentØ Coalgeneration:<1%oftotalgenerationØ Electriclightdutyvehicles:>50%ofsalesØ Electricmediumdutyvehicles:>40%ofsalesØ Electricheavydutyvehicles:>30%ofsalesØ Heatpumpsinbuildings:>60%ofsalesØ Storage:>20GWbatteriesØ NonewoilandgastransportfacilitiesØ MaintainexistingnuclearfleettoextentfeasibleØ Maintaingasgeneratingcapacityatcurrentlevel

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Thankyou!

Dr.JimWilliamsDeepDecarbonizationPathwaysProject

jim.williams@unsdsn.org

EXTRASLIDES

TotalCO2ein2050DependsonLandSink,Non-CO2GHGMitigation

Scenario E&ICO2(Mt) HighCO2e(Mt) LowCO2e(Mt)Central 0 500 0

Limitedland 0 500 0

Delayedelectrification 0 500 0

Lowdemand 0 500 0

100%RE -350 150 -350

Netnegative -500 0 -500

Landsinkrange:-750Mt(current)to-1125Mt(50%improvement)Non-CO2GHGs:1250Mt(current)to1125Mt(10%improvement)

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InfrastructureTransitionandEmissionsLightdutyvehicleexample

Sales Stock Energy Emissions

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ElectricityBalancing:ThermalGenerationforReliableCapacity

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ElectricityBalancing:Transmission,EnergyStorage,FlexibleLoads

OtherbalancingresourcesØ  renewablecurtailmentØ  80%increaseininter-regionaltransmissioncapacityØ  200GWofbatteriesfordiurnalbalancingØ  largeindustrialflexibleloads,e.g.electricfuelproduction,dualfuelboilers

Non-ThermalNetLoadBalancingResourcesResidualLoadAprilAugustDecemberAprilAugustDecemberAprilAugustDecember

1000

500

0

-500

-1000

Hour1241241241241241241241241

AverageGWh

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FuelsAbout60%offinalenergycanbeelectrified.Theremaining40%mustbemetwithfuels.

CCS

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CarbonCaptureUtilization&Storage(CCUS)

Carboncaptureisanecessarycomplement(notalternative)todecarbonizationDRAFTRESULTS

RequiredActionsinthisDecade,2

•  R&D,pilots,incentivesforcommercializationoftechnologiesneededinbulkpost-2030–  freighttransport,aviation,newindustrialprocesses,hydrogen&syntheticfuels,advancedbiofuels,CCUS

•  Addressscale-upchallengeswealreadyanticipate– wholesaleelectricitymarketdesigntosupportlowcapacity-factorthermalgeneration,flexibleloads

–  incentivesforcustomeradoption,especiallyEVsandheatpumps

–  landuseplanningtoaddresscompetingprioritiesforsiting,bioenergy,carbonsink,andexistinguses

DRAFTRESULTS