carbon neutrality in the transport sector for … · • carbon neutrality (top down) trajectories...

1 17/06/19 1

CARBON NEUTRALITY IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR FOR PORTUGAL - 2030 & 2050 Francisco Ferreira June 2019

2

energy transporta,on waste agriculture forests land use

circular economy

Carbon Neutrality

EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS OF GREENHOUSE GASES (CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases) 2050

= 0 tCO2e

+ + + +

3

Methodology

Energia e Processos IndustriaisProdução de eletricidade e calor, refinação, residencial, serviços,

indústria, agricultura e transportes

Mobilidade

Agricultura

Florestas

Resíduos e Aguas Residuais

Economia Circular

Narrativas & Cenários

Macroeconómicos:

Fora de PistaPelotão

Camisola Amarela

• Políticas em Vigor• Tecnologias (bottom up)• Neutralidade Carbónica

2050 (top down)

Pres

supo

stos

Trajetórias para a Neutralidade

Carbónica

Opções setoriaisOpções TecnológicasCustos (Investimento

& evitados)Impacto

Macroeconómico

Processo de construção participado

Consulta a peritos

Ciclo de #7 workshops técnicos

Sessões de apresentação de

resultados preliminares

Consulta Pública

Setores

Envo

lvim

ento

al

arga

do d

a so

cied

ade

Gases Fluorados

•  Policies in force •  Technologies (bottom up) •  Carbon neutrality (top

down)

Trajectories for Carbon

Neutrality

Sectorop/onsTechnological

op/onsCosts(investments

&avoided)Macroeconomic

PublicConsulta/on

Preliminaryresults

presenta/onsessions

7technicalworkshops

Par/cipatoryconstruc/onprocess

Expertconsulta/on

Macroeconomic Narra,ves &

Scenarios

Off-Track Pack

Yellow Jersey

Assu

mp,

ons

Exte

nsiv

e so

ciet

y in

volv

emen

t

CircularEconomy

FluorinatedGases

WasteandWastewater

Forests

Agriculture

Mobility

EnergyandIndustrialProcessesElectricityandheatgenera/on,

refinery,housing,services,industry,agricultureandtransporta/on

Sectors

4

>HighlyCompe//vePortugal

>Stabiliza/onofthephysiologicalbalanceandsubstan/alincreaseofthemigratorybalanceleadingtopopula/onrecovery

>Growthofmediumci/esandreduc/onofthepopula/onconcentra/oninMAs

>Greaterdegreeofdecentraliza/onanddigi/za/onoftheenergysystem

>Greaterentrepreneurship

>GreaterCircularityoftheEconomy

>Highpenetra/onofnewformsofmobility(sharedandsoR)

>Predominanceoforganicandconserva/onfarming;valoriza/onofexternali/es(ecosystemservices);

Three Possible Futures...

YELLOWJERSEYPACK

>Compe//vePortugal

>Demographicdeclineislesssevere,duetotheeffectofthemigratorybalance

>Popula/onConcentra/oninMAs

>Conserva/veevolu/onofcurrentproduc/onstructures,butwithtechnologicaldevelopmentandefficiencyincrease

>ModerateCircularityoftheEconomy

>Moderateadherencetonewformsofmobility(sharedandsoR)

>Organicorintegratedagriculturalproduc/on

OFF-TRACK

>Uncompe//vePortugal

>Demographicscon/nuetobeindecline

>Popula/onconcentra/oninMAs(MetropolitanAreas),depopula/onofthecountrysideandmediumci/es

>Maintenanceofcurrentproduc/onstructures

>Circularityatlowlevels

>Similarmobilitypa_ernstocurrentones,(lowadherencetonewformsofmobility)

>Conven/onalfarming;produc/onpaymentsarepredominant

Off-TrackPlatoon YellowJersey

5

Carbon Neutrality is Possible in Portugal in 2050

6|-0,06Mt1|-3Mt

Off-Track

Pack

Yellow Jersey

History

% of emissions reduction

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt C

O2e

Sectoral Emissions Un,l 2050

>Deepdecarboniza/oninthenexttwodecades(2020-2040)

-  Energyproduc/on,-  Mobilityandtransporta/on,-  Housing

>Industryandagriculturesectorshavealowerdecarboniza/onpoten/alun/l2025/30,butcontributewithsignificantreduc/onsonthe2040-2050period>Effec/veagroforestrymanagementisadeterminingfactorfortheobjec/veofcarbonneutralityin2050

WasteAgricultureTransporta/onBuildings&OthersIndustryEnergy

Pack YellowJersey

7

Role of Endogenous Resources in the Energy System

*Doesn’tincludeavia/onandinterna/onalmarineresources

>  Carbonneutralityleadstoamassiveuseofrenewableendogenousresourceswithaposi/veeffectonthecountry’senergybillandenergysecurity

>  In2050,endogenousresources(ofwhich>2/3aresunandwind)representmorethan80%ofprimaryenergyconsump/oninbothscenarios

2050

2040

2030

2015 DE:78%

DE:57%

DE:31%|30%

DE:17%|14%

-44%|-41%

YellowJerseyPack

CarvãoProdutos Petrolíferos Gas NaturalRenováveis + Resíduos

não renováveis

Produtos Petrolíferos Gas NaturalRenováveis + Resíduos não

renováveis

Produtos Petrolíferos

Gas NaturalRenováveis + Resíduos não renováveis

Produtos

Petrolíferos

Gas NaturalRenováveis + Resíduos não renováveis

396 PJ 227 PJ 172 PJ 136 PJ

275 | 285 PJ 226 | 222 PJ 143|154 PJ

383 | 402 PJ 110 | 97 PJ

65|75 PJ

439 | 481 PJ

NetElectricityImports

OilProducts

OilProducts

OilProducts

NaturalGas

NaturalGas

NaturalGas

NaturalGas

OilProducts

Renewable+NonRenewableWaste




Coal

8

5% | 8%

67% | 66% 9% | 9%

53% | 50% 13% | 13%

10%|11%

10% | 10%

33% | 33% 25% | 24% 17% | 16% 12% | 14%

42% 26% 11% 8%

9% |9%

8%

11% | 10%

7%|6%

5%|4%

4%

3%

4% 1%

2% 2%

1%3%

Energy Transi,on| Total Final Energy Consump,on

26%64%

9%11%

26%64%

11%

-25%|-22%

2050

2040

2030

2015>Reduc/onoffinalenergyconsump/onin2050between21%and24%comparedto2015>Reduc/onofenergyintensitybymorethan50%>Increasingelectrifica/onoftheeconomy,alreadyvisiblein2030,withincreasedintegra/onofrenewablesinfinalenergyconsump/onby2050>In2050,morethan65%ofthefinalenergyconsump/onwillbeelectricity>Steepreduc/oninoilproductconsump/on

IE:36|33tep/M€

IE:44|42tep/M€

IE:57|56tep/M€

IE:72tep/M€

FER:46%

FER:72a73%

FER:86a87%

YellowJerseyPack

WasteSolarThermal

CoalElectricity

OilProductsHeatCogenera/on

NaturalGas

LPG

Biomass Geothermal

9

Energy Transi,on| Final Energy Consump,on Per Sector

26%64%

9%11%

64%

11% -25%|-22%

2050

2040

2030

2015>Transporta/onisthesectorwiththegreatestenergyprofiletransforma/on,goingfromthemostrepresenta/vesectortooneoftheleastrepresenta/veinfinalenergyconsump/on

37% 30% 13% 17%

35% | 34% 30% | 31% 15% 18%

39% 22% | 23% 16% | 15% 20%

43% 18% | 19%

18% |17% 18%

3%

3%

3%

4%|3%

Transporta/on

Industry

Housing

Services

Agriculture

10

The Electricity Sector Transi,on

2015

2030

2040

2050

INSTALLEDCAPACITY(GW) 52/54GW

Hydro.

Hydro

Pumping

Central.PVOnshoreWind

OffshoreWind

Gas

Ba_eries

Biomass/waste/biogas

+32/34GW

Onsho

re

Wind

Hydro

Coal

FuelGas

HydroPumping

Biomass/waste/biogas

PVcentral.EólicaOnshore

Central.PVOnshoreWind

Hídrica.

HydroDecentral.PV

PVdescentral.

HydroPumping

Hídricabombag.

Ba_eries

Gás

Central.PVDecentral.PV

OnshoreWind Hydro

HydroPumping

Ba_eries

Gas

YellowJerseyPlatoon

23GW

30GW

42GW

>  Securityofsupplyisguaranteedby:§  Technologicalcomplementarityand

diversificaHonofrenewableinstalledcapacity

§  Thermalcapacity:naturalgas-dedicatedplantsupto-andincluding-2040(PegoandLares)|CHPtobiomassandnaturalgasby2050(1.7GW|3%oftotalcapacity)

§  BaKeries+hydrowithpumping(about6.6GWin2050|about12%totalcapacity)

§  H2andVEproducHonthatcanstoreandsupplyelectricity(V2G)ifnecessary

11

2020 2030 2040

+2x

2050Coalpowerplantsdecommissioningby2029

Solarcapacitymatcheswindcapacity

Off-Shorewindsurpasses1GW

BaKeriesbecomecost-efficient

associatedwithdecentralizedsolar

(2020-2030)

Totalinstalledcapacityis2xcurrentinstalledcapacity

Ba_eriesrepresent3%|4%oftotalinstalledcapacity

Hydroproduc/onwithoutpumpingdecreases9%comparedto2020duetowateravailabilityreduc/on

H2

H2

ElectricityusedforH2produc/on:2%|4%ofelectricityproduc/on

BaKeriesrepresent6%oftotalinstalledcapacityBaKeries+hydrowithpumping13%|12%oftotalinstalledcapacity

Off-Shorewindbecomescost-efficient

(2030-2040)

Eletricidadeu/lizadaparaproduçãodeH2:5%|7%daproduçãodeeletricidade

Photovoltaicsolarproduc/onbegins

togainrepresenta/veness

Naturalgaspowerplants

decommissioningaZer2040

%ofFER 59 88|86 97 100

%ofGHGReduc/on(comparedto2005) CO2-38 -83|-84 -98-93|-94

Solarproduc/onrepresents50%oftotalcapacity

Decentralizedsolarproduc/ongainsrepresenta/veness

The Electricity Sector Transi,on YellowJerseyPlatoon

12

FrameworkEmissionsfromtransport

Transportes

Outrossetores

RepresentaHvidadedosetor

13

Source:InventárioNacionaldeEmissões(APA,2018)(1)Apenasconsideramovimentosemterritórionacional;ParaaviaçãoincluiLTOinternacional

15522ktCO2eq(2015)

SubsectorsRoadtransportemissions2015

FrameworkEmissionsfromtransport

14 1Fonte:DGEG/Eurostat,2018

•  Perentageofrenewableenergysources(RES)(20151):7,4%

•  Electricityconsump/onbyrailwithreducedweight

•  Totalenergyconsump/on(20151):5608ktep

•  Setorwithhighestimportcontribu/onthroughprimaryenergyneeds

Passengertransport-modeTP:12%

TP:19%Pkmem%Occupancy:17%[ML:24%|MP:19%|MST:10%]

Carreirasurbanas/suburbanas:16%[Carreirasinterurbanas:21%]

Useofpublictransport(TP)in2015

Gásnatural

Eletricidade

FrameworkEnergyconsump/on

15

1 2 3 4 5

Mobilidade2050

ElectricficaHon

UrbanizaHon

MulH/intermodulaty

Autonomy/connecHvity

Sharing

Thefutureofmobilitywillbemodifiedbysocietalchange(eg.Sharingeconomy),technilogicalprogressincludingIoTandbigdata),bynewplayersandbusineesmodels(eg.mobilityasaservice)

FrameworkGlobaltendencies&disrup/vechanges

16

Mudançade

paradigma

AlteraçõesdebaseaosistemadeT&M

-  Perfisdemobilidade-  Repar/çãomodal-  Morfologiadosetor USOPARTILHADO

min

USOINDIVIDUAL

Tipologiadeu,lização

NíveldeAu

tono

miadosveículos

MAX

MethodologyInclusionofglobaltendencies

17

Mobilitydemandevolu/onPassengers

18

“Classic”publictransport

Allpublictransport+sharing

Mobilitydemandevolu/onModalsharinginpublictransport

19

Publictransportshort-distancedemandbysharing

Assump/onsSharingandautonomousvehiclesuselevels

Autonomousvehicleinthefleet

20

YellowJerseyPackOff-Track

Trajetóriadene

utralid

ade

20

FINALENERGYCONSUMPTION-TRANSPORTS

21

ROADPASSENGERS

22

ROADBUS

Ø Short-distanceuseelectricity

Ø  Long-distancewithbiofuels and/oralterna/ves

23

ROADFREIGHT

24

RAILPassengers Freight

25

AVIATIONPassengers Freight

26

SHIPPING

Ø Sh ipp ing i s one o f t he l e s sdecarbonizedsectors

Ø Long-distancewithLNGandbiofuels

Ø Short-distancewithelectricity

27

The Mobility and Transporta,on Sector Transi,on Pack

Biofuelsrepresent1/4ofenergyconsump/on

BUS:ElectricityandBiofuelsreplacedieselin2050

EV:100%ofmobility

Electrifica/onofshort-distanceavia/on

Petrolisnolongercost-

efficient

Dieselisnolongercost-

efficient

H2andelectricitymeet50%of

demand

EVwithba_erymeet30%of

demand

BeginningofEV

mainstreaming

Passengers

Goods

Autonomousand/orsharedvehicles

ensure1/3ofmobility

EV:Reaches1/3ofmobility

Transi/ontoelectricity,mee/ng

totaldemandby2030


Vehicleswithcatenary

becomecost-efficient

%ofElectrifica/on

EnergyConsump/on(PJ)%ofGHGReduc/on(comparedto2005)

%ofFER

28

The Mobility and Transporta,on Sector Transi,on

YellowJersey

BUS:ElectricityandBiofuelsreplacedieselin2050

EV:100%ofmobility

Electrifica/onofshort-distanceavia/on

Petrolisnolongercost-

efficient

Dieselisnolongercost-

efficient

H2andelectricitymeetnearly2/3of

demand

BeginningofEV

mainstreamingAutonomousand/or

sharedvehiclesensurenearlyhalf

ofmobility

EV:Reaches1/3ofmobility


%ofElectrifica/on

EnergyConsump/on(PJ)%ofGHGReduc/on(comparedto2005)

%ofFER

H2meets1/3ofdemand

Vehicleswithdynamicloadingsystemreach60%ofdemand,withtheremainderbeingmetbyH2

Vehicleswithdynamic

loadingmeet20%of

demand

Passengers

Goods Transi/ontoelectricity,mee/ng

totaldemandby2030inlightgoodsvehicles

29

Photovoltaicsolarproduc/onbeginstogainrepresenta/veness

Coalpowerplantdecommissioningby2029

Solarequalswindproduc/oncapacity

Ba_erystoragerepresents3%oftotalElectroproduc/onsysteminstalledcapacity

SolarsurpasseswindproducHoncapacity|decentralizedsolarproduc/ongainsrepresenta/veness

Solarrepresents50%oftotalproduc/oncapacity

Ba_erystoragerepresents6%oftotalElectroproduc/onsysteminstalledcapacity

Off-shorewindproduc/onbecomescompe//ve

2%ofelectricityisusedinhydrogenproduc/on

Off-shorewindproduc/oncapacitysurpasses1GW

5%ofelectricityisusedinhydrogenproduc/on

Renewableproduc/oncapacitydoubles

NaturalgaspowerplantsdecommissioningaZer2040

Forestarea4307000haForestarea

4194000ha

Hydroproduc/onwithoutpumpingdecreases4%comparedto2020duetowateravailabilityreduc/on

Totalburnedarea|155000ha/year


Precisionagriculture100000haOrganicandconserva/onagriculture50000ha


Cul/vatedagriculturalarea|1318631ha

Cul/vatedagriculturalarea|1320041ha


+24%|55%hor/culturalarea

+6%|36%orchardarea

Upto+18%cerealarea


32%ofindustryenergyconsump/onissa/sfiedbyNaturalGas

SolarThermalforindustrylowtemperatureheatproduc/onbecomescompe//ve

Industryelectricityconsump/onincreases1.5x

Upto15%ofindustryenergyconsump/onissa/sfiedbyNaturalGas|Represents90%oftotalconsump/on

Upto6%ofindustryheatneedsaresa/sfiedbysolarthermal

Inhousing,16%ofwaterhea/ngenergy

consump/onissa/sfiedbysolar

Heatpumpssa/sfy15%ofcooling/hea/nghousingenergydemand

Insula/onmeasuresallowfora4%reduc/oninenergyconsump/on

Inhousing,solarrepresentsupto11%oftotalenergyconsump/on

Inhousing,solarrepresentsupto11%oftotalenergyconsump/on Inhousing,upto83%

ofwaterhea/ngenergyconsump/onissa/sfiedbysolar

-82%reduc/oninurbanwastelandfilling

Upto9%reduc/oninurbanwastegenera/onpercapita

Highdevelopmentofrecyclinglines

upto80%foodwastereduc/on

Upto25%reduc/oninurbanwastegenera/onpercapita

BeginningofEVmainstreaming

Lightpassengervehicles:33%ofmobilityiselectric

Dieselnolongercost-efficientforlightvehicles

Lightgoodvehicles:electricitynearlymeetstotaldemand

Heavygoodsvehicles:hydrogenandelectricitymeetatleasthalfoftotalmobilitydemand

Heavypassengervehicles:electricityandbiofuelreplacedieselby2050

Lightpassengervehicles:autonomousand/orsharedvehiclesensureatleast33%ofmobility

Lightpassengervehicles:100%ofmobilityiselectric

OrganicferHlizersreplacesynthe/c,andrepresentmorethan80%ofnitrogenusedinsoils

%ofRenewablesinelectricityProduc/on

%ofelectricityintotalenergyconsump/on

Greenh

ouseGasemissions(M

tCO2e)

carbon neutrality in the transport sector for … · • carbon neutrality (top down) trajectories...

Documents