paddy power - 18th may fiscal stability treaty referendum poll 2012

7/31/2019 Paddy Power - 18th May Fiscal Stability Treaty Referendum Poll 2012

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RED C interviewed a random sample of 1005 adults aged 18+ by telephone betweenthe 14th to 16th May 2012.

A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households tobe included this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.

Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conductedusing an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reachinglandline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile.

Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults.A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at thelast election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the

MUST BE INCLUDEDMethodology and Weighting

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two.

Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale,where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being thosewho will actually go and vote.

Finally, some people tell RED C that they intend to vote, and have a good past voting record, butsay they dont know who they would vote for or refuse to answer the question. Whenever such

people say which party they voted for in the last election, RED C ascribe 50% to the party theyvoted for previously. We have seen from analysis of past elections that this is the most likelyoutcome and this reallocation tries to overcome the effect of the spiral of silence where votersare do not want to admit who they will vote for.

In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMARand AIMRO.


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Key Findings

The latest RED C/Paddy Power poll for the Fiscal Stability Treaty sees a relatively stableproportion of voters suggesting they will vote Yes, with the proportion high enough tosuggest that Treaty currently remains likely to be passed.

However it does suggests a slight shift towards more undecided voters away from the Yescamp, when compared to the last RED C poll a week ago.

In todays poll, just under two thirds of the population (59%) claim they will definitely go andvote in the Referendum, with 14% suggesting they will definitely not or are very unlikely togo and vote. RED C poll analysis excludes this 14% as previous analysis suggests theyare very unlikely to vote.

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,

will vote No and 19% remain undecided. When these undecided voters are excluded, theYes side secures 62% of the vote and 38% are left voting No.

The greatest support for the treaty lies primarily among older, 55+ age groups, higher socialgrades and those residing in Dublin and ROL.

18-24 year olds and those from Conn/Ulster are most likely no vote supporters and would

take some effort to persuade otherwise, however even in these demographics whenundecided voters are excluded the treaty would still be passed.

Support by party allegiance shows a polarization, with Fianna Fil, Fine Gael and Labourvoters getting more likely to vote Yes for the referendum, while Sinn Fein and Independentsare more likely to be No vote supporters.


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1-3 4-7 8-9 10

Likelihood to Vote in Fiscal Stability Treaty Referendum(Base: All adults 18+/ all adults 18+ likely to vote)

1 = Definitely Will Note Vote 10 = Definitely Will Vote

%

In any one referendum, turnout might be at only around 60% of all eligible to vote. It is important therefore that we control our votingintention questions by how likely people are to vote. RED C ask respondents to say how likely it is that they will go and vote using a tenpoint scale where 10 means they would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 means they would be certain not to vote. We then excludeanyone who gives a score of 1-3 from our voting intention calculations, as these people will not vote in an election anyway.

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Definite VotersVery

LikelyVoters

Possible

Voters

Unlikely

Voters

Following charts are based on possible, likely and definite voters.


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Likely vote behaviour towards the European Treaty(Base: All adults 18+/ all adults 18+ likely to vote)

49 5059 62

Yesin favour

29th

March 12

How do you think youwould currently vote in

such a referendum?%

Treaty Vote Intention(excl Dont Knows)

%

17th

May 12

29th

March 1217th

May 12

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18 19

33 31

41 38

No

against

Dont

know

Q. European Union country leaders have agreed on a new European Fiscal Stability Treaty in 2012, that would entail greater oversight by the EU over member states

budgets. In the upcoming referendum, you will have the option to vote YES in favour of Ireland ratifying the treaty, or NO against Ireland ratifying the treat. How do youthink you would currently vote in such a referendum?


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Paddy Power Referendum Poll In Context of all RED C polls(Base: All adults 18+/ all adults 18+ likely to vote)

40 44 49 49 47 53 50 53 58

Yesin favour

29

th

Jan 4

th

Mar

How do you think youwould currently vote in

such a referendum?%

Treaty Vote Intention(excl Dont Knows)

%

25

th

Mar 29

th

Apr 13

th

May29

th

Mar 18

th

May

29th

Jan

4th

Mar

25th

Mar

29th

Apr

13th

May

29th

Mar

18th

May

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36 2933 33 35 31 31

4740 41 40 42 37 38

24 26 18 18 18 16 19

No

against

Dontknow

*March 25thOnwards Includes Question about likelihood to vote

Q. European Union country leaders have agreed on a new European Fiscal Stability Treaty in 2012, that would entail greater oversight by the EU over member statesbudgets. In the upcoming referendum, you will have the option to vote YES in favour of Ireland ratifying the treaty, or NO against Ireland ratifying the treat. How do you

think you would currently vote in such a referendum?


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Gender Age Class Region

How do you think youwould currently vote insuch a referendum?

Total%

Male%

Female%

18-34%

35-54%

55+%

ABC1%

C2DE%

F%

Dublin%

ROL%

Munster%

Conn/Ulster

%

Yes 50 53 48 44 49 58 57 41 70 53 54 49 43

No 31 33 29 36 31 25 24 40 14 30 28 31 35

Dont Know 19 14 23 20 20 17 19 19 16 17 18 20 22

How do you think you would currently vote in the EU Treatyreferendum excluding those not likely to vote?(Base: All adults 18+ excluding those not likely to vote)

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PARTY SUPPORT

How do you think you wouldcurrently vote in such areferendum?

Total%

Fianna Fail Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Ind. Undecided

Yes 50 63 77 67 10 37 39

No 31 19 7 21 78 51 25

Dont Know 19 18 16 12 12 12 37


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5852

55 55 5551

5855

Gender Age Social Class Region

Total

%

Male

%

Female

%

18-34

%

35-54

%

55+

%

ABC1

%

C2DE

%

Dublin

%

ROL

%

Munster

%

Conn/Ulster

%

How do you think you would currently vote in the EU Treatyreferendum excluding Dont Knows and those not likely to vote?(Base: All adults 18+ excluding those not likely to vote)

Mar 12 May 12

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4138 39 37

4539

29 31

39

29

4549

3936

41

3440 39

4245

63

71

69

71

64 66

4845

3842NO


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27

12

4842

How do you think you would currently vote in the EU Treatyreferendum excluding Dont Knows and those not likely to vote?(Base: All adults 18+ excluding those not likely to vote)

Current Party Support

Total%

Fianna Fail%

Fine Gael%

Labour%

Sinn Fein%

Ind.%

Mar 12 May 12

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41 38 38

8

73

88

52

58

77 77

92

6976

2323 2431

NO

paddy power - 18th may fiscal stability treaty referendum poll 2012

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