northern petroleum plc - analyst presentation may 2017
TRANSCRIPT
Northern Petroleum Plc
Analyst Presentation
May 2017
Northern Petroleum Northern
Petroleum
▪ Production led growth from conventional light oil in Alberta, Canada
➢ low risk, low cost production growth across existing substantial facilities
▪ High impact exploration through Italian appraisal and exploration
➢ up to $69m of work programme carry from two partners
▪ Well funded
▪ Lean organisation with low G&A
▪ Technically driven board with necessary experience
▪ Institutionally backed
▪ New strategic partner to pursue production acquisitions in Canada
Production led growth High impact upside
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Key stats▪ Shares in issue: 314.7m
– 323.0 fully diluted
▪ Market Cap: £13m
▪ $7.2m in cash
– further $0.7m on deposit
– $0.4m in debt
▪ Key shareholders (61%)
– High Power Petroleum
– Cavendish Asset Management
– City Financial
Northern Petroleum The Board
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▪ Skill set– Geologist
– Reservoir Engineer
– Production Engineer
– Mergers & Acquisitions
– Chartered Accountants
– Equity Capital Markets
– FTSE 250
▪ Experience– Venture Production
– Faroe Petroleum
– Lasmo
– Hess
– E.ON
– BP
– Tristone Capital
– HSBC Investment Bank
– National Nuclear Laboratory
– FirstGroup Plc
– Schlumberger
Nick Morgan Jon Murphy Iain Lanaghan Campbell Airlie Keith Bush
Northern Petroleum Rainbow, Virgo, Zama – north west Alberta
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▪ Originally developed in the 60s and 70s
▪ Light conventional oil production from carbonate reefs
Amber Virgo
Sousa
Rainbow
ZamaLarne
Shekilie
ShekilieWest
Kotcho
Black
Rainbow South
Land position▪ 58,000 acres
▪ 170 mmbbls STOOIP
▪ Low recovery to date
– 19%
▪ 1.9 mmbbls 2P (100%)
– NOP have 75% WI
Northern Petroleum Good infrastructure / access
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▪ Well served by Plains Pipeline System
▪ Industry service companies based locally in industry evolved towns (High Level, Zama City)
▪ Good access except during ‘Break up’
➢ annual wet season during spring thaw
➢ heavy truck movements banned
➢ four to eight weeks during April and May
Northern acreage
LegendGasOil
Northern Petroleum Low risk production growth
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▪ Established operating platform with substantial facilities, infrastructure and operating capacity
➢ minimal facilities capex required as production grows
➢ incremental production barrels decrease fixed opex per barrel
▪ Production increase:
➢ well workovers / recompletions
➢ well side-tracks
➢ new wells into existing reefs
Facilities▪ Substantial tank
storage
▪ Fluid separators
▪ Produced water disposal
▪ Tie-in sales point to national pipeline infrastructure
Capacity▪ 10k to 15kb/d of fluid
Northern Petroleum Winter work programme
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▪ Rainbow well workover programme
▪ 23 wells worked over including
➢ four wells from recent production acquisition
➢ three ‘opex wells’
– maintenance on existing producers
▪ Cost of programme below budgeted $2.5m (100%)
▪ 300 b/d production increase achieved (100%)
▪ Current production restricted
➢ Break Up
➢ pipeline re-certification approvals
▪ Full Production – 500 to 700 b/d – expected towards end of Q2 (100%)
Northern Petroleum Future production potential
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▪ Current well programme targets Keg River in Rainbow and Virgo
▪ Quantification project for area potential underway➢ mapping of all reservoir intervals in Zama, Virgo and Rainbow areas
➢ current land position had original oil in place of 180 mmbbls in Keg River – average 19% recovery factor
➢ 5% improvement in recovery factor is 9 mmbbls reserves
➢ further upside from other hydrocarbon prone horizons – Zama, Sulphur Point, Slave Point
Orange – OP land positionRed – 3D seismic coverage
Seismic coverage over 30% of land position
Oil Gas
Northern Petroleum Summer 2017
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▪ Expanded summer programme being planned
▪ Targeting
➢ one to two recompletions, incl. Virgo wells
➢ one to two side-tracks
➢ remaining well workover candidates
▪ Initial budgetary estimates $3m (gross)
▪ Increase production by 300 b/d (gross)
2018
▪ New wells into existing reefs
➢ mainly Virgo
▪ Evaluation of other producing horizons
Northern Petroleum Italy
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Cascina Alberto
▪ 300 mmbbls onshore exploration prospect
▪ Analogous to Villafortuna-Trecate 25km southeast
▪ Farmed out to Shell for cash, seismic acquisition and exploration well carry
▪ Seismic acquisition consultation underway
▪ Company changing exploration and appraisal portfolio
▪ Large onshore exploration project carried by Shell
▪ Strategic position offshore in the southern Adriatic
➢ discovery requiring flow test to proceed to development
➢ large prospect to be drilled
▪ Environmental approval received for seismic
➢ commencing tendering process
➢ Q4 / Q1 acquisition timetable
➢ permit application awards expected in Q2
➢ initiate approval process on Giove appraisal well
Cascina Alberto
Cygnus & Giove
Northern Petroleum Italy – Southern Adriatic
11
Oil discovery Gas discovery
Awarded Exploration Permit
Exploration Permit Application
Giove discovery▪ Offshore discovery, contingent
resource of 26 mmbbls
▪ Requires appraisal well with flow test
▪ Well being planned for 2019
Cygnus prospect▪ Offshore target, 446 mmbbls
prospective resource
▪ 12 kms from producing Aquila oil field
▪ If connected to Aquila, volumes are much larger
Southern Adriatic
Medusa deep prospect▪ Offshore target, analogous to Giove,
47 mmbbls prospective resource
▪ Oil discovered with original well –not able to test due to well issues
▪ If Giove works, possible well in same campaign
Northern Petroleum Production economics / Balance sheet
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Fixed opex
Variable opex
Discount /tariff
Royalty / GORR
2016 actual 2017 illustrative
$9
$12
$10
$4
$8
$9
$5
$10
$5
$24Operating netback
2016 actual▪ 106,000 bbls produced
▪ 290 bbls/d
▪ WTI averaged $43
2017 illustrative▪ WTI average $53
– $52 year to date
▪ Average 700 bbls/d
Further opex incurred in 2016▪ $1 per barrel ongoing repairs and maintenance▪ $5 per barrel workover repairs – pipeline reinstatement repairs
▪ $7.2 million in cash as at 31 March 2017➢ excluding $0.7m on deposit with Alberta Energy Regulator
➢ excluding $0.5m subject to Italian regulatory approval of farm out
Northern Petroleum Strategic partner – High Power Petroleum
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▪ H2P is part of I-Pulse Inc.
➢ large private technology company commercialising high pulse power solutions across industries, incl. E&P and mining
▪ Farmed in / acquired an interest in each group asset
➢ option to increase WI further cash consideration / work carry
▪ Three year AMI with H2P➢ Alberta or Saskatchewan
➢ 50/50 investment
➢ Conventional light oil
▪ Large E&P companies still divesting non-core assets
▪ Significant opportunity to acquire new production assets and leverage off existing Calgary based team
Northern Petroleum Investment opportunity
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▪ Northern is building economic production and cashflow
➢ relatively low levels of capital required
➢ relatively low risk
▪ Minimum overhead and small central team
▪ Well funded and supported
▪ Existing asset base can support significant production growth
➢ 4,000 - 5,000 b/d
▪ Alongside low risk core value growth
➢ high impact upside will be matured over medium to long term
Northern Petroleum
These presentation materials (the "Presentation Materials") are being solely issued to and directed at persons having professional
experience in matters relating to investments and who are investment professionals as specified in Article 19(5) of the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "Financial Promotions Order") or to persons who are high net
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(“Exempt Persons”).
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investment activity on the basis that they are only being made to Exempt Persons and have therefore not been approved by an
authorised person as would otherwise be required by section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”). Any
investment to which this document relates is available to (and any investment activity to which it relates will be engaged with)
Exempt Persons. In consideration of receipt of the Presentation Materials each recipient warrants and represents that he or it is an
Exempt Person.
The Presentation Materials do not constitute or form any part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue or purchase or subscribe for
any shares in Northern Petroleum PLC (“Northern Petroleum”) nor shall they or any part of them, or the fact of their distribution,
form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract with Northern Petroleum relating to any securities. Any decision
regarding any proposed purchase of shares in Northern Petroleum must be made solely on the basis of the information issued by
Northern Petroleum at the relevant time. Past performance cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance. The
Presentation Materials are being provided to recipients on the basis that they keep confidential any information contained within
them or otherwise made available, whether orally or in writing in connection with Northern Petroleum or otherwise. The Presentation
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United States of America, its territories or possessions or Australia or Canada or Japan or the Republic of Ireland or South Africa.
Any such distribution could result in a violation of law in those territories.
The Presentation Materials do not constitute or form part of a prospectus prepared in accordance with the Prospectus Rules (being
the rules produced and implemented by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) by virtue of the Prospectus Rules Instrument 2005)
and have not been approved as a prospectus by the FCA (as the competent authority in the UK). The Presentation Materials do not
contain any offer of transferable securities to the public as such expression is defined in section 102(b) FSMA or otherwise and do
not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite or purchase securities nor shall they, or any part of
them, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract with Northern Petroleum relating to any securities.
Disclaimer
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