NOAA Research Overview:

Climate Variability

Drought in Great Plains, ca. 1935 California floods during 1998 El Nino

Mission-critical research

Climate variability research is central to NOAA’s mission to provide:

• Environmental assessments and predictions

•Stewardship of marine resources

Questions public and decision-makers ask NOAA:

“Are we likely to see more or fewer storms with El Niño?” “How unusual is this drought, and what are its causes?” “What is the precipitation outlook for next season?” “How will climate variability impact fish stocks?”

NOAA’s global and regional observing systems are crucial in supporting monitoring, interpretations, and predictions of climate variability.

Relationships to USGCRP and CCRI

USGCRP Draft Strategic Plan Objectives: Climate Variability and Change

1. Improve detection, attribution, and projections of climate change.2. Extend and improve predictions of major modes of climate

variability.3. Assess the potential for changes in extreme events at regional and

local scales.4. Characterize the mechanisms and estimate the likelihood of abrupt

climate change and expected global and regional manifestations.5. Improve effectiveness of interactions between producers and users

of climate information.

NOAA Research contributes to all five major objectives.

CCRI: some suggested key products

1. Improved knowledge of natural vs. human caused climate change.

2. Increased understanding of the potential for extreme weather events as a result of climate change.

3. New tools for integrated assessment and risk management.

Increased understanding of natural variability is essential for reducing climate science uncertainties, e.g. in key climate forcing mechanisms, improving climate predictions, attributing the causes for observed variations, and assessing the potential for abrupt climate change.

Major areas for near-term emphasis (next 2-5 years):

• Improve predictions of major modes of climate variability.

• Increase understanding and capabilities to predict short-term climate variability, decadal-to-centennial variability, and their inter-relationships.

• Develop climate prediction capabilities for high-impact events.

• Establish quantitative estimates for risks of abrupt change.

• Develop monitoring/forecast products for regional applications and risk reduction.

NOAA Climate Variability Priorities

NOAA Core Components: Climate Variability Research

Office of Global Programs

• Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP)• Climate Variability and Predictability Programs (CLIVAR)• Global Water Cycle Program/GAPP• Climate Change Data and Detection Program (CCDD)

Climate Observations and Services Program (COSP)

• Weather-Climate Connection• Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

NOAA Research Laboratories

NWS Climate Prediction Center - routine monitoring/predictions

Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP)

Objectives :

Contribute to the development and implementation of a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere forecast system based on dynamical models

Foster the development of new prediction and application techniques

Focus:

• Seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction research and applications

Method:

• Sponsor a sustained critical mass of focused applied research and development at a few institutions - the Applied Research Centers (ARCs).

• Support the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), which provides international climate assessments and predictions.

CDEP Product example

Web tool enabling real-time comparisons of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly forecasts by different methods forthree month seasons:

July-September (JAS)October-December (OND)

JAS OND

CDEP Deliverables

• Improved seasonal forecast systems through advances in ocean data assimilation, seasonal diagnostics and regional modeling capabilities.

• Model-based approaches for developing climate forecast products for regional applications and risk reduction.

• Decision support tools to enable quantitative assessments of regional implications of global climate variability on time scales from seasonal to centennial.

• International climate assessments and predictions through the IRI.

Climate Variability and Predictability(CLIVAR)

Objectives :

Understand mechanisms producing different patterns of natural climate variations and their global and regional manifestations.

Assess predictability of these climate modes through observational and modeling studies.

Foci:

• El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Tropical Atlantic Variability, and North American monsoon system.

• Abrupt climate change (Atlantic thermohaline circulation).

Method:

• Sponsor investigator research/observational experiments in key regions: CLIVAR-Pacific, CLIVAR-Atlantic, CLIVAR-Americas.

• Support interagency national (USCLIVAR) and international programs.• Implement Climate Model Process Teams (CPTs) to develop and improve

climate model representations of physical processes.

Research example: CLIVARWintertime Response of Climate Model to warm Indian Ocean

Model’s responses to warm Indian Ocean reinforces La Niña tendency for dry, warm conditions in SE and along east coast, as well as part of the northern plains. Probable contributing factor to U.S. and SW Asia (Afghan) droughts.

Temperature Precipitation

CLIVAR Deliverables

• Improved climate prediction and projection capability for global climate variability and change on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time scales.

• Assessments of decadal predictability of climate modes.

• Accelerated improvements in modeling of physical processes through the CPTs. Initial efforts will focus on high priority areas: cloud - water vapor feedbacks, and Arctic snow and ice feedbacks.

Global Water Cycle Program/GAPP

Objectives :

Develop a capability to predict water cycle variables on monthly-to-seasonal time scales.

Interpret climate predictions for water management. Assess risks to water systems through improved

climate projections.

Foci:

• Impact of land surface processes (vegetation and soil moisture) on predictability of summer precipitation.

• Initial focus on Americas, GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP).

Method:

• Sponsor investigator research/ modeling/ observational experiments.• Coordinated with larger national and international programs in the Global

Water and Energy Cycle Experiment (GEWEX).

Impact of Land Surface Processes (Vegetation and Soil Moisture) on predictability of summer precipitation

Research Example: Water Cycle Program

• Assessment of risks and vulnerabilities for river basins arising from variations and changes in the water cycle.

• Improved experimental forecasts of precipitation and water cycle extremes on seasonal time scales.

• Reduced uncertainty in climate model projections of long-term changes in the water cycle components.

• Closure of the water budget globally and regionally over all time scales.

• Integrated water cycle data products (satellite, in-situ) such as an integrated water vapor product.

• Surface water cycle in-situ data sets and assimilation products for the validation of regional and globalclimate models.

Global Water Cycle/GAPP Deliverables

Climate Change Data and Detection (CCDD)

Objectives :

Data set development and enhancement Detection and attribution (NOAA-DOE) Paleoclimatology (NOAA-NSF)

Foci:

• Produce time series for trends and variability.• Characterize the range of natural variability.• Establish linkages between paleo and instrumental records.

Method:

• Sponsor data set development.• Support data recovery/data archeology efforts.

Trends in Ocean Heat ContentLevitus (NODC)

Research Example: CCDD

CCDD: Deliverables

• Data sets needed to understand the climate system constructed and made available for analyses.

Weather-Climate ConnectionObjectives :

Improve understanding and predictions of connections between climate variations and high impact weather phenomena (droughts, floods)

Improve regional weather and climate observational capabilities Develop stronger link between climate research and user needs Infuse new science and technology into NOAA operational products

Foci:

• Improve predictions on weekly to seasonal time scales.• Initial focus on tropical-midlatitude interactions over the Pacific and their

regional impacts on U.S.• Develop quantitative risk assessments for hazardous events.

Method:

• Intensive observational, diagnostic, and modeling studies at regional scales to assess predictability and realize the potential for operational prediction.

• Research coordinated with services (NWS) and end users.

Research example: Weather-climate Connection

Where will storm track be for the next few weeks?

When will an arctic outbreak affect the east coast?

When will the rain (drought, heat wave, etc.) end?

How will a climate shift affect the weather in a particular region?

MJO

PineappleExpress

40” of rain/ 7 days

Weather-Climate Connection: Deliverables

• Improved forecast capabilities of U.S. temperatures and precipitation from a week to a season.

• Enhanced data sets and analyses to identify and interpret weather-climate connections between the tropics and mid-latitudes.

Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Objectives :

Identify causes for observed multi-decadal trend of interrelated changes in the Arctic (atmosphere, ice, ocean, land) - termed “Unaami”.

Clarify potential for feedbacks (albedo, fresh water export, release of carbon from permafrost/methane hydrates)

Determine implications for abrupt changes. Assess impacts to ecosystem and society.

Foci: • Interannual to decadal time scales.• Arctic/subarctic ocean fluxes; relationship to thermohaline variability.• Expand on limited observations to track key variables; incorporate into

models.

Method:

• Implement and sustain environmental observations.• Data analysis and research.• Coordinated with other agencies in SEARCH, as well as larger national and

international programs in Arctic research.

Examples: Search Products

SEARCH Deliverables

• Temperature, radiation and ice data to support analyses of ice/albedo feedback, ocean thermohaline circulation, Arctic shipping routes, marine mammal management.

• Atmospheric data to enhance model physics and improve prediction of Arctic Oscillation, US temperature and hydrologic forecasts

• Long-term data to detect decadal changes, demonstrate links to mid-latitudes

Research LaboratoriesObjectives :

Carry out long-term research central to NOAA’s mission Provide sustained support for NOAA climate observations and services

(e.g., NWS Climate Prediction Center)

Foci:

• Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML): provides and interprets oceanographic data and conducts research relevant to decadal climate change and coastal ecosystems, with primary focus on Atlantic.

• Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC): Develops national capabilities to describe, interpret, and predict climate variations, emphasizing the causes and potential predictability of important climate phenomena such as ENSO, droughts, and floods.

• Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL): Focuses on potential impacts of climate variability and change on the Great Lakes ecosystem and water cycle.

• Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL): Focus on coastal and open ocean observations (especially of the Pacific) in support of prediction of the ocean environment on time scales from days to decades.

Model-derived Seasonal Precipitation probabilities for New Mexico

The model results illustrate how “wet” La Niña conditions or “dry” El Niño conditions in New Mexico are both possible, but unlikely.

El NiñoLa Niña

Research example: ENSO effects on precipitation

Observed Rainfall (Oct. 2001-May)

La Niña Composite (Oct.-May)

Research Laboratory products/deliverables

• Develop near real-time attribution for the causes of extreme events.

• Climate probability forecast capabilities, including risks of high-impact events.

• Improved hazard assessments/outlooks for U.S.

• Diagnostic tools that enable rapid intercomparisons of models and observations for climate interpretations and predictions.

NWS Monitoring and Prediction Services

Objectives :

Deliver products for decision support Regular and timely provision of climate obs. and predictions

Foci:

• Primary emphasis on intraseasonal to interannual time scales.• Includes monitoring of climate through the Cooperative Observer

program network (COOP).• Routine climate predictions for the nation provided through the NWS

Climate Prediction Center (CPC).• Support for seasonal model prediction development through the

Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). Hydrologic predictions through the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).

• Coordinate diagnostic efforts, new product development with NOAA Research Laboratories (e.g., CDC).

Operational example: Drought outlook (CPC)

The outlook over the next few months

Also increased risk of:•Heat waves where soil moisture is depleted• Major wildfires, western U.S.

Western hydrological drought will continue through at least summer.

NWS products/deliverables

• Climate analyses and forecasts from intraseasonal to interannual time scales.

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