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Climate Change Workshop 2009 USACE Infrastructure ConferenceJuly 22, 2009

Robert WebbChief, Climate Analysis BranchNOAA OAR Earth System Research LaboratoryBoulder, Colorado

Climate Change, Climate Variability Climate Change, Climate Variability & Plans to enhance & Plans to enhance

NOAA climate servicesNOAA climate services

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The nation has made progress in understanding climate variability

and change

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Global Climate Change Impacts

in the United StatesHow has climate already changed?

How is it likely to change in the future?

How is climate change affecting us now where we live and work?

How is it likely to affect us in the future?

What are options for responding?

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This report provides information

to make good decisions at the national, regional, and local levels to avoid already occurring impacts

to better understand the consequences of our decisions about emissions as well as adaptation

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Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced

Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate

Human fingerprints have been identified in many aspects of climate change

•Temperature•Precipitation•Ocean heat content•Atmospheric moisture•Arctic sea ice

Moving Outside the Range of Historical Variation

800,000 Year Record of CO2 Concentration

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Global Average Temperature, 1900 to 2100

Temperatures will continue to rise − how much depends on the amount of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere

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Temperature rise

Sea-level rise

Earlier snowmelt

Changes in river flows

Rapidly retreating glaciers

Thawing permafrost

Longer growing season

Increase in heavy downpours

Longer ice-free season in the ocean,

on lakes, and on rivers

Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow

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Number of Days Over 100ºF

Increases in very high temperatures will have wide-ranging effects.

Recent Past, 1961-1979

Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-99

Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-99

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Projected Change in Precipitation Intensity(2080-2099)

Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation

(1958 to 2007)

Hydroclimatic changes are underway in the U.S. and are expected to increase

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Projected Change in Precipitation by 2080-2099

Water resource changes are underway and will be affected by changing precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures

Confidence in precipitation projections lower than for temperature

Good confidence in overall pattern (wet north vs dry south)

Less confidence in exact location of transition

Winter

Summer

Spring

Fall

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Less snow, more rain

Wet areas get wetter – floods

Dry areas get drier – drought

Declines in mountain snowpack

Increased competition for water

Climate change will stress water resources

Projected Changes in Annual Runoff Pattern

In snowmelt-dominated streams, runoff peak will shift

to earlier in the spring and late summer flows will be lower.

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Coastal areas are increasingly at risk from sea-level rise and storm surge

Projected Sea-Level Rise Areas in Florida under water with 3 foot sea level rise

Gulf Coast Roads at Risk from Sea-Level Rise

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Land Lost During 2005 Hurricanes

Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge

Chandeleur Islands, east of New Orleans, before and after the 2005 hurricanes

217 square miles, 85% of the island’s land mass was lost

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Response Strategies

“Mitigation” – reducing the amount of climate change, for example, by reducing heat-trapping emissions or increasing their removal from the atmosphere

“Adaptation” – improving our ability to cope with or avoid harmful impacts or taking advantage of newly favorable conditions

Both will be needed.

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Elevate roads, buildings, and facilities

Improve flood control structure design

Build hard structures such as levees and dikes (although this can actually increase future risks by destroying wetlands and also by creating a false sense of security that causes more development in vulnerable areas)

Enhance wetlands

Accommodate inland movement

through planned retreat

Require setbacks for construction

Improve evacuation planning

Adaptation Example

Responding to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge

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Completion of perimeter road on US-affiliated island altered in response to projected climate change

Road placed higher to account for sea-level rise

Improved drainage system installed to handle heavier rainfall

Accumulated costs, including capital costs and repairs and maintenance show the alterations to be cost effective

Adaptation ExampleClimate-Proofing a Road

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Water

Sustainable Food

CoastalInundatio

n

Security And Many Others

Air Quality

Ocean Life & Ecosystems

Weather (Extreme Events)

Impacts Are Why Climate Matters

It’s the impacts stupid

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…that will serve and provide authoritative climate information and services to assist the nation’s citizens in making climate-related decisions that enhance their lives and livelihoods.

Thus, our nation needs a climate service

“Decision makers at all levels of government and in the private sector need reliable and timely information to understand the possible impacts and corresponding vulnerabilities that are posed by climate change so that they can plan and respond accordingly.” – Western Governor Association statement to the House Committee on Science and Technology, May 3, 2007

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Observations/Monitoring

The National Climate Service Partnership - no single agency can address the climate challenge

on its own

National Climate Service

Research, Modeling & Assessments

Resource Risk Management Adaptation & Mitigation

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National Climate ServiceCongressional Interest

• HR 2454 – Sec. 452/Interagency– OSTP-led process; initiate within 30 days– Plan in two years; establish an NCS in three years

• HR 2454—Sec. 452/NOAA– Establish Climate Service Office– Network of regional and local partnerships– Utilize assets of all NOAA programs & partners

• Senate– Six Committees to act by end of Sept. 09– Commerce Committee hearing late July

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NOAA's contribution: Building on a strong foundation

Unique breadth of mandates and responsibilities for managing coastal and marine ecosystems, and

resources and communities

A long history of building sustained partnerships with other federal agencies, the private sector, all levels of government, NGOs and the public

A commitment to and demonstrated leadership in the science underpinning a service including: observing; data management and delivery; problem focused and fundamental climate research; climate modeling, predictions and projections; and local, regional, national and international assessments

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Some Important AttributesProvide balanced, credible,

cutting edge scientific and technical information

Engage a diversity of users in meaningful ways to ensure their needs are being met

Link human-caused climate change and changes in natural variability to meet user needs

Provide and contribute to science-based products and services to minimize climate-related risks

Strengthen observations, standards, and data stewardship

Ensure timely assessments

Improve regional and local projections of climate change

Inform policy options, decisions and management options of others

Foster climate literacy and workforce development

Provide predictions and projections of climate at scales relevant to decision support

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• Solution and problem focused:– Sea level – Precipitation patterns and associated effects

on freshwater, nutrient, and sediment flow– Ocean temperature – Circulation patterns– Frequency, track and intensity of storms

– Atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification

Climate Service Case Study:Coastal Regions

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• Problem and People focused:– Drought– Floods– Changes in snowpack (quantity and timing)– River stream flow– Fire outlooks– Physical Infrastructure

(dams, reservoirs, delivery systems)– Planning (urban, agriculture, health)

Climate Service Case Study:Water

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Next steps…An interactive process that engages federal agencies, states, partner institutions and individuals from across the spectrum of climate research, service provision, users, partners and stakeholders.

A critical issue that must be addressed in these processes is the best arrangement for federal agencies to work in partnership to maximize delivery of climate services to the nation.

NOAA looks forward to engaging in these dialogues.